Redd Vencher

That's an awful trade for the Brewers.

I didn't miss Devin Williams because I left 2020 out of the sample as it wasn't a full season.

There's 5 ROY RP (2001 Sassaki, 2005 Street, 2009 Bailey, 2010 Feliz, and 2011 Kimbrel) and 4 more top 3 (2004 Takatsu and Otsuka, 2006 Papelbon, and 2014 Betances) in the 22 year sample, and they were all over a decade ago outside of Betances. (5.6% of available spots) The player doesn't have to win the award to get the draft pick. A top 3 finish is sufficient. Unless MLB, BA, or ESPN reverse course, Turang won't be eligible for PPI. There's plenty of sub .800 top 3 ROY finishes as well. I can dig through to get the actual percentage later.

@igor67You can filter by rookies on Fangraphs. Here are the number of rookie hitters with 400+ PA by league and year since 2000. 2022 9 AL 7 NL 2021 6 AL 6 NL 2019 8 AL 10 NL 2018 6 AL 7 NL 2017 9 AL 6 NL 2016 5 AL 3 NL 2015 9 AL 13 NL 2014 9 AL 3 NL 1 Both* 2013 4 AL 8 NL 2012 3 AL 8 NL 2011 5 AL 6 NL 2010 3 AL 10 NL 2009 4 AL 6 NL 2008 10 AL 7 NL 2007 8 AL 7 NL 2006 5 AL 14 NL 2005 12 AL 5 NL 2004 6 AL 8 NL 2003 11 AL 8 NL 2002 7 AL 4 NL 2001 10 AL 4 NL 2000 5 AL 7 NL 1 Both** Averages to 7 per year in each league. *Yangervis Solarte played for the Yankees and Padres his rookie season. **Melvin Mora played for the Mets and the Orioles his rookie season. Here's the same span for rookie pitchers with at least 100 IP. 2022 6 AL 6 NL 2021 12 AL 8 NL 2019 7 AL 8 NL 2018 5 AL 8 NL 2017 3 AL 9 NL 2016 4 AL 11 NL 2015 8 AL 8 NL 2014 13 AL 4 NL 2013 3 AL 10 NL 2012 13 AL 6 NL 2011 8 AL 5 NL 2010 4 AL 8 NL 2009 14 AL 7 NL 1 Both* 2008 8 AL 7 NL 1 Both** 2007 7 AL 9 NL 2006 8 AL 14 NL 2005 7 AL 5 NL 2004 4 AL 0 NL 2003 7 AL 10 NL 2002 11 AL 11 NL 2001 10 AL 10 NL 2000 5 AL 10 NL Averages to 8 per year in each league. *Clayton Richard played for the White Sox and Padres his rookie season. **Sean Gallagher played for the Cubs and A's his rookie season. On average, there's 15 players that play enough to get consideration for ROY. There's more like 5-10 that perform well enough to truly get into the ROY conversation. If you think a prospect on multiple top 100 prospect lists entering the season is good enough to warrant the playing time, it behooves the team to start them in the majors within the timeframe to get the extra pick. If the prospect struggles, they can always be sent back down to get that extra year back.

wRC+ is based on linear weights, so all those events have a run value. These are the Fangraphs ones from 2015 relative to outs in their glossary, but they will work to illustrate the basic point. BB 0.55 HBP 0.57 1B 0.70 2B 1.00 3B 1.27 HR 1.65 The proportion of each of those states against the run environment is what gives us wRC+. A player with a lower wRC+ isn't going to provide more than one with a higher wRC+ in terms of batted outcomes. Where a difference that would come up on offense would be their ability on the basepaths, which isn't considered in wRC+. Sequencing on offense can help teams not as good by wRC+ to outperform it, but there's no good way to plan for good sequencing of batted outcomes. It's not something you can plan for.

I figured he'd go for something like that based on his overall body of work

Steamer has Urias putting up a 110 wRC+ while he put up a 111 wRC+ the last 2 sseasons. (112 and 110) It's saying he's going to be the same player he's been. Winker's 122 wRC+ is a nice bounce back projection even if it's a little worse than his career 126 wRC+. I would bet the over on the power output for a LH batter like Winker in Am Fam assuming his hitting bounces back. Expecting a projection system to project more SB based on the new rule changes is just something these systems can't do because they're using past data to project future performance. PA is another one you don't have to worry about in a projection system. If Frelick hits that 111 wRC+ projection, he's getting WAY more than 131 PA.

Money spent in 2023/2024 isn't going to impact whether they can extend any of those 3. Why do people keep coming back to this point?

Segura at 2B would be the other option on the FA market, and he's probably my preferred choice at this point assuming he could be had on a deal like this or a Kolten Wong type deal.

The offense with Urias and Turner would project to be better than Urias and Turang. Having Turang work his way into the bigs in the Jace Peterson role would still give him regular playing time. We just wouldn't be relying on him as a starter.

The Brewers still need another bat that can handle LHP with how left handed they are currently. Lengthening the lineup with as many bats that can be average or better is what made the 2022 offense the best of the Stearns era. They have the budget space to do it, so it'd be a mistake not to use that this offseason. Steamer has Turang (94 wRC+) being Cardinals Kolten Wong (96 wRC+). Having Cardinals Kolten Wong off the bench is better than having him starting if you can afford it. If Segura would sign for what the Brewers gave Wong in FA, I think it would behoove the Brewers to do that assuming a better trade situation comes along. Provides some protection in 2024 if they can't extend Adames, and they have to trade him next offseason.

The thinking might be moving one for a SP with more control than Lauer or Houser, and use them for an OF or other position player with more control than they have.

This a fine deal for Turner, and one I would have liked the Brewers to sign. A name that I've warmed to recently, and might be had on a good value contract is Jean Segura. 107 wRC+ the last 3 seasons (131 v.LHP 97 v.RHP), and plays decent defense at 2B.

@jay87shot @Robocaller The Defense component on Fangraphs includes positional adjustment. A fulltime DH is going to have a very low defense component. Per 1458 innings adjustments, so divide by that and multiply by the innings at the position. C +12.5 1B -12.5 2B +2.5 SS +7.5 3B +2.5 LF -7.5 CF +2.5 RF -7.5 DH -17.5 @jay87shot Projections use past performance to predict future performance. Keston Hiura has had 246+ PA 3 of his 4 seasons in the big leagues, so that's what the projection system is spitting out for playing time. It also means it isn't going to throw out new numbers based on rule changes. If you want the projections adjusted to playing time, you take Fangraphs' Depth Chart where they adjust the PA to the season total.

5 years $10 M was not being burned if the player doesn't work out.

The Brewers offense was 6th in 4+ and 5+ run games and T-9th in fewest times held to 2 runs or less. Hard to be much more consistent than that. Even the Yankees weren't that consistent, and they were the only other team to average 5+ runs.

Mike Moustakas in his time with the Brewers put up a 111 wRC+. Urias has a 111 wRC+ over the last 2 seasons. (112 in 2021 and 110 in 2022.) If you thought Moustakas was good enough for a contender, there's no reason to think differently about Urias.

The complaints I remember about JBJ and Wong signings was we weren't spending on better offensive players but going all in on run prevention. People shut up about Wong because he came out and provided the best offensive seasons of his career while JBJ was dreadful.

If they were targeting those guys, then JBJ's salary wasn't preventing anything. I would have loved your reaction at the trade deadline when acquiring 78 wRC+ Jorge Soler. No way you would have said the Brewers did enough to go for it. The only bat that was a marked improvement over what the Brewers had in house was Soto, and the Brewers weren't getting Soto in 2022. Taylor Rogers was a top 10 RP in baseball from the time Hader debuted to the deadline. We took a step back there to get pieces for the future, and then turned around to make up the difference with Bush and Rosenthal. Rogers outpitched Hader post trade even though both were bad, so having Hader wouldn't have changed the results. Bush struggled and Rosenthal got hurt again, so while the logic behind made sense even if the results were poor. Withh hindsight, another SP would have been nice.

It was reported we made a play at Bryant, but the Cubs didn't want to deal him in division. They did build on the roster at the deadline. They took on more money than they gave up at the deadline.

With his defense, a 89-90 wRC+ is a 2.5-3.0 WAR player. Basically the CF version of Wong (95 wRC+ with the Cardinals) for similar money.

The Brewers acquired Adames, Tellez, Escobar, Curtiss, and Norris in season in 2021. What move did McCutchen hinder in 2022?

They signed Kolten Wong the same offseason they signed JBJ. Does that not count?

This move has no bearing on whether the Brewers sign a guy like Turner.

Miller, Toro, Brosseau, and Turang all have options. It's just stockpiling optionable depth.