Redd Vencher
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Everything posted by Redd Vencher
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Mitchell isn't maintaining a .548 BABIP over a significant stretch.
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The offense was good last year, and it accomplished by really having a hole in the lineup. Are biggest hole over the entire season was C, but that's because Caratini and Narvaez fell completely off a cliff after the trade deadline. They were right to attack the pitching that had been an issue, and they probably should have grabbed a SP in hindsight.
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It's not the best rule, so I imagine it gets reworked in the next CBA. I think it pretty much guarantees that Chourio isn't up before September next year, so we don't lose the extra year if he forces the issue midseason and performs well.
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Not necessarily OD, but they have to accrue a full service year to be eligible for the draft pick, which might as well be OD.
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If they feel Frelick and/or Wiemer can win ROTY, they need to be on the OD roster to be eligible for the comp pick for doing so.
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Too Early 2023 Ideas (or beyond)
Redd Vencher replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
You do know MLB Marathon just makes rumors up for engagement, right? -
Abreu or Bell wouldn't be replacing Tellez. They'd be replacing McCutchen and his 98 wRC+ last year.
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Abreu or Bell wouldn't be replacing Tellez. They'd be replacing McCutchen and his 98 wRC+ last year.
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You have defensive metrics. DRS says he's elite at 3B in his career, UZR says he's average, and OAA says he's below average. 2 of the 3 available metrics rate him average or better. That suggests more time unless you find a better bat to play the position. Just because scouting reports say someone is an 'elite' defensive player doesn't mean they actually will be in the majors. Orlando Arcia was a top 10 prospect in baseball because scouts saw an elite defender, and that never materialized in the majors. He was average at best at SS.
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You have defensive metrics. DRS says he's elite at 3B in his career, UZR says he's average, and OAA says he's below average. 2 of the 3 available metrics rate him average or better. That suggests more time unless you find a better bat to play the position. Just because scouting reports say someone is an 'elite' defensive player doesn't mean they actually will be in the majors. Orlando Arcia was a top 10 prospect in baseball because scouts saw an elite defender, and that never materialized in the majors. He was average at best at SS.
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With any defensive metric you need about 3000 innings before they stabilize. He has less than 1200 innings at 3B in his career, which isn't even a full season. +10 DRS -0.1 UZR -3 OAA.
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With any defensive metric you need about 3000 innings before they stabilize. He has less than 1200 innings at 3B in his career, which isn't even a full season. +10 DRS -0.1 UZR -3 OAA.
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A guy who put up a 111 wRC+ 4.4 fWAR 6.2 bWAR over the last 2 seasons isn't a hole at 3B. We've basically got Mike Moustakas over there right now. This isn't to say I'm against doing better than that at 3B as I proposed acquiring Yandy Diaz to take the 50-55% of the innings over there in my roster blueprint, but it's silly to look at it as a hole.
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A guy who put up a 111 wRC+ 4.4 fWAR 6.2 bWAR over the last 2 seasons isn't a hole at 3B. We've basically got Mike Moustakas over there right now. This isn't to say I'm against doing better than that at 3B as I proposed acquiring Yandy Diaz to take the 50-55% of the innings over there in my roster blueprint, but it's silly to look at it as a hole.
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Adames had a 108 wRC+ 3.5 fWAR (4.6 fWAR pace) before September this year. He finished with a 109 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR. I don't know what you mean by the player we saw most of the year before September. The difference between his 136 wRC+ with us in 2021 and his 109 wRC+ in 2022 is his .349 BABIP last year and his .278 BABIP this year. He's eclipsed 3.0 fWAR in each of his 3 full seasons. In the future, he can always slide over to 3B with his power. If Chourio is everything they think he's going to be, they'll approach very early in his big league career to get a good discount. The earliest Chourio is up is midseason 2023, but more likely situation is midseason 2024/OD 2025. None of his FA years we'd be looking to buy out would coincide with any of the extensions including Yelich's.
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Adames had a 108 wRC+ 3.5 fWAR (4.6 fWAR pace) before September this year. He finished with a 109 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR. I don't know what you mean by the player we saw most of the year before September. The difference between his 136 wRC+ with us in 2021 and his 109 wRC+ in 2022 is his .349 BABIP last year and his .278 BABIP this year. He's eclipsed 3.0 fWAR in each of his 3 full seasons. In the future, he can always slide over to 3B with his power. If Chourio is everything they think he's going to be, they'll approach very early in his big league career to get a good discount. The earliest Chourio is up is midseason 2023, but more likely situation is midseason 2024/OD 2025. None of his FA years we'd be looking to buy out would coincide with any of the extensions including Yelich's.
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Burnes is getting at least in the range of $30-35 M AAV for his FA years if he remains on his current trajectory. The Brewers would have to buy 6 or 7 FA years at the low end to even be realistic about an extension. ($180-$210 M plus $25-$30M combined for his 2 arb years for a $205-$240 M deal) I just don't see him as a realistic sign. When putting together the Adames extension I used Baez' 6 year $140 M deal last offseason as a comp for his FA years. I still think there's a couple 6 or 7 WAR seasons in him yet, and I don't think Turang or Brown Jr. have that in them. Turang has a high floor with his defense, but the offense is a big question mark.
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Burnes is getting at least in the range of $30-35 M AAV for his FA years if he remains on his current trajectory. The Brewers would have to buy 6 or 7 FA years at the low end to even be realistic about an extension. ($180-$210 M plus $25-$30M combined for his 2 arb years for a $205-$240 M deal) I just don't see him as a realistic sign. When putting together the Adames extension I used Baez' 6 year $140 M deal last offseason as a comp for his FA years. I still think there's a couple 6 or 7 WAR seasons in him yet, and I don't think Turang or Brown Jr. have that in them. Turang has a high floor with his defense, but the offense is a big question mark.
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I posted these extensions for Woodruff and Adames in my payroll blueprint. I think these are more realistic extensions than what was put forward in the article. Woodruff 5 years $105 M with 6th year option. 23 $10 M, 24 $15 M, 25-27 $25 M, 28 $5 M buyout of $25 M option. Look to defer $5 M per FA season. Adames 8 years $132 M with a 9th year option. 23 $8 M, 24 $12 M, 25-30 $18 M, 31 $4 M buyout on $18 M option. Look to defer $4 M per FA season.
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I posted these extensions for Woodruff and Adames in my payroll blueprint. I think these are more realistic extensions than what was put forward in the article. Woodruff 5 years $105 M with 6th year option. 23 $10 M, 24 $15 M, 25-27 $25 M, 28 $5 M buyout of $25 M option. Look to defer $5 M per FA season. Adames 8 years $132 M with a 9th year option. 23 $8 M, 24 $12 M, 25-30 $18 M, 31 $4 M buyout on $18 M option. Look to defer $4 M per FA season.
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And if they played more at a different position they weren't eligible for LF.
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And if they played more at a different position they weren't eligible for LF.
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We won 96 games with a rotation of Chacin ( 35 GS 116 ERA+), Anderson (30 GS 104 ERA+), Guerra (26 GS 100 ERA+), Suter (20 GS 92 ERA+), Miley (16 GS 159 ERA+), Peralta (14 GS 96 ERA+), and Zach Davies (13 GS 86 ERA+) with a worse offense in 2018. That roster had the 3 headed monster at the back of the bullpen and Woodruff, Burnes, and later Peralta in the middle innings. There's a multitude of ways to construct a winning roster in this league.
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We won 96 games with a rotation of Chacin ( 35 GS 116 ERA+), Anderson (30 GS 104 ERA+), Guerra (26 GS 100 ERA+), Suter (20 GS 92 ERA+), Miley (16 GS 159 ERA+), Peralta (14 GS 96 ERA+), and Zach Davies (13 GS 86 ERA+) with a worse offense in 2018. That roster had the 3 headed monster at the back of the bullpen and Woodruff, Burnes, and later Peralta in the middle innings. There's a multitude of ways to construct a winning roster in this league.
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I think it's pretty silly to say the Brewers would be lucky to win 85 games if they traded one of Burnes or Woodruff without seeing the rest of the offseason moves.
