Redd Vencher
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Everything posted by Redd Vencher
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Labor Discussion - Salary Cap, Local TV Sharing
Redd Vencher replied to Austin Tatious's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
He was taken out if context. In context, it's about choosing to extend Yelich for the fans over trading him to bring in more talent to win the WS, and would he do a Yelich type deal again, which he said yes. It's basically saying he isn't looking to be as aggressive about churning through talent like the Rays are (Arozarena had 2.5 yrs and Paredes had 3.5 years of control when traded for example) largely because the Rays have no fans by doing that. -
1.5-2.0 WAR season may not seem unreasonable based on last season, which was his best season since 2019, and he only posted a 95 wRC+. He has a .205/.263/.372/.635 76 wRC+ over the last 3 seasons. (Monasterio is a .243/.322/.324/.646 82 wRC+ lasr 2 seasons) That's the more reasonable expectation for 2025. I wouldn't have opposed his signing, but I don't think it's a miss passing on him.
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It definitely takes 2 to tango, but I don't think the Brewers were in on him like I would have liked them to be because they didn't pivot post signing to someone else. Just disappointed he was had for less than I was willing to give him on a pillow contract more than anything. You could have had the best of both worlds trialing Dunn/Durbin platoon while he recovers, and bring in a 3.5 WAR player pushing them to the bench.
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I did read it. You're projecting your behavior onto others. That's why I quoted it back to you.
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Pretty funny to spend the whole thread talking about how the Brewers didn't/can't replace the Adames' numbers, and when it's pointed out it's not unteasonable they can it's run away from the numbers to a less quantifiable aspect. It's this plus your personal belief that you're some bold truth teller and behave like a petulant child when there's disagreement with it that gets you all the backlash. In your own words, you think your opinion "...is the Law, is always right, and is to NEVER be challenged."
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Thea only real complaint I have about the offseason is the Brewers not doing the Ha-Seong Kim deal he signed with the Rays. Looking at the WAR out from 2024 v. the WAR in for 2025 without counting Woodruff back and a full season of Civale, it's 6-7 out and 4 in looking at the major pieces and your WAR of choice. It's not going to take huge improvement or health to make up that gap. I would still project the Brewers as a 90 win team like they've averaged per 162 since 2017. If Chourio is the 142 wRC+ hitter he was from June 1st on for the entire season, I could see a 95+ win season.
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Most prognoses about his return is early May. $14.5 M AAV on a guy who's averaged 3.8 fWAR/4.7 bWAR per 600 PA over the last 3 seasons is well worth it. This is the move the Brewers should have made.
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This is less than I was willing to go on a pillow deal for Kim, so I'm sorely disappointed the Brewers didn't get him. I would expect the other IF pieces to start coming off the board quickly.
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Using groupings like top 5, top 10, top 15, whatever when doing these analyses on World Series aren't actually showing what people think they're showing. Working from a 50-50 chance to win a playoff series, the current format has a 12.5%-25% to make the WS. (6.25%-12.5% to wind) If you've got 4 of the top 5 payrolls in the playoffs 1 year, you're looking at a 50%-100% of a top 5 payroll team making the WS. (25%-50% to win it) Obviously, a higher payroll makes a team more likely to make the playoffs than not, but this makes the results suggest you have to have a high payroll to win in the playoffs when it's just a larger share of the WS lotto tickets in the bracket than any solid law of baseball playoffs.
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Cortes' 7.8 fWAR over the last 3 seasons is top 30 amongst SP over that span. That's a 3+ fWAR SP if he gives you at least 150 IP.
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ZIPs is projecting Durbin for a 92 OPS+ for 2025. (.231/.321/.361/.682 with a .253 BABIP) Steamer is projecting a 100 wRC+. (.243/.327/.364/.691 with a .266 BABIP)
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Cortes' 7.8 fWAR over the last 3 seasons is in the top 30 of SP in baseball over that span in 396.0 IP. That's a 3.3 FWAR/170 IP in that span.
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In strict value terms, it's fine because Cortes is a valuable piece, but the Brewers have to be pretty high on Durbin, moreso than every prospect publication, for it to make sense. The point of moving Williams is to gain more control over talent, and they burnt most of the value not getting that.
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They're projecting him as a RP. 56 G 3 GS.
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If you want to tie a couple rumors together, you can tease out a serious attempt. C Kyle Teel was the headline of the return, and Robert Murray has the Brewers in the catching market. A package around Quero would be a serious offer.
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Any Dodgers trade for Williams starts with Alex Freeland. Him and an arm that is squeezed out of their rotation. Don't think Freeland and Miller possible, but I would push for Freeland and Sheehan. Willing to settle for less than that on the arm side.
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Finding the next Yeli, Contreras, Willy
Redd Vencher replied to jay87shot's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
The O's aren't trading Westburg. He was on pace for a 4+ fWAR season before the injury. Mayo is not a 3B, so he doesn't impact Westburg's playing time in 2025. -
The Royals fans gave up after they went back to sucking after their WS win well before the Dodgers super team. They'll stick around in the Witt Jr. competitive window, and bail again when that's over. There's few teams that are consistently successful and struggle with attendance. (OAK and TB) As for owners getting fed up, Bob Nutting has nothing to get upset about seeing he's one of the notorious owners that pockets the revenue sharing money he currently gets.
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This was a pretty easy call on what Montas was going to make after a 10.99 K/9, 3.56 xFIP, and his fastball velo back over 96 MPH (OAK velo) post trade to the Brewers.
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Ohtani has a $46 M CBT hit, and costing the Dodgers $46 M per year. $2 M for the salary, and $44 M into escrow to pay the deferrals.
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Signing bonuses are calculated into the CBT hit.
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It depends on what they already have committed to other IFA already, and how willing they are to cancelling those deals or how much they can trade for. Brewers for example have commitments to the 35, 41, 44 best prospects on according to Pipeline.
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The Marines are going to wait until the 2024 period is over (December 15) before officially posting him to get the highest possible posting fee possible, so remaining 2024 pool money is irrelevant. Doesn't mean he still doesn't go to the Dodgers.
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A big reason against going to the Dodgers is how they chew up talented young pitcher's arms compared to the rest of the league. If he wants that $300+ M contract in 6 years, the Dodgers org is the one to avoid.
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How much money would they have to spend on him, though? Say the Brewers are on the low end estimate for their 3 top 50 prospects, and they have $5 M to spend and the Dodgers have $2 M or less to spend after the guys they already have agreements with. You don't think that could outweigh playing with Yamamoto and Ohtani? I'm not sure how much of the latter he would actually value.
