Jake McKibbin

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images The Brewers' trade of Aaron Civale was a blessing, in some ways, for both parties. Civale gets a virtually guaranteed starting rotation spot for the next six weeks (before a likely trade, again, at the MLB trade deadline), a nice gesture from the Brewers at the cost of some of his trade value. In return, Andrew Vaughn escapes the White Sox organization and (hopefully) the downtrodden mental state in which he found himself. Rumors continued apace that the Brewers were listening to offers on a first baseman, but not the one everyone's been talking about. Jake Bauers has migrated toward a three-true-outcome first baseman's profile this season, bordering on passive at the plate. That's facilitated a good walk rate, and he's done damage on mistake pitches. He's crushing his pitch when he gets it, marrying great launch angles with good exit velocities and producing a .762 OPS—all while showing he can cover left field and provide above-average defensive chops at first base, too. Bauers is making $1.4 million in 2025 and has significantly outperformed expectations thus far. His left-handed bat has provided a good platoon at first base, but with Christian Yelich occupying the DH spot indefinitely and a large cohort of left-handers already on the team, the reps for Bauers may begin to dry up somewhat, despite his being the best bench bat the Brewers have. It makes sense to trade from a surplus at this point, with the Brewers stuck in some roster limbo. Will they continue to keep touch in the wild card race with the dominant NL West, or will they fall away? Are the Cubs catchable in the Central? It's too early to tell, and as such, reinforcements around the margins make a lot of sense. With vast depth in the pitching staff, there may be more pressure for Civale-like moves to come. Brandon Woodruff reported an uptick in raw stuff after recovering from his most recent snafu, and that the rest actually helped him feel his best again. Nestor Cortes threw another bullpen and could be back just after the All-Star break, while Jacob Misiorowski is here to stay. Then you have Logan Henderson in Nashville, on restricted innings for the time being, and Robert Gasser returning in September. The Brewers' rotational depth is the envy of the league, and that's without counting on the fact that DL Hall or Aaron Ashby are almost stretched out enough to start games. Chad Patrick and Quinn Priester are performing too well to demote. It's an impending roster crunch when Woodruff returns, and Cortes after that. Teams like the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Blue Jays all have visions of competing but bottom-third starting rotations right now. On top of that, the Brewers bullpen looks effective in recent months. Ignoring some early season blow-ups from Connor Thomas, the performances of late by Nick Mears, Jared Koenig and Abner Uribe have been lights-out. Trevor Megill has bent, but not broken, with reduced fastball swing-and-miss, and with three years of team control remaining, he could be a hot commodity and a sell-high candidate. Again, the Dodgers, Phillies, Diamondbacks and even perhaps the Mariners may see an opportunity here. Let me postulate one particular trade at this point in time: Jose Quintana to the LA Dodgers for Christian Zazueta Quintana has struggled to get the feel for his changeup in recent starts, but it would be folly to expect that to last. The wily veteran has shown that he's more than capable of getting several times through the order and keeping the ball on the ground this season, a strong back-end arm for any playoff contender. He can eat more innings as required when he's got his feel back, and some teams are crying out for that dependability. The Dodgers are in flux in the rotation as things stand, with injuries just about everywhere you look. Only the Nationals, Rockies, Diamondbacks and Marlins have conceded more runs than the Dodgers this year, and they rank 22nd in starter ERA with a mark of 4.37. Ohtani likely won't be pitching deep into games any time before the All-Star break, on top of requiring a six-man rotation with him slotted in. They need help. In return, the Brewers aren't likely to get what they really need. Hyeseong Kim would be amazing in this Brewers team, a genuine spark plug capable all over the infield, but their chance to get him was as a free agent this winter. The Dodgers won't give him up for someone like Quintana. Nor will the Crew get anything close to top prospects like Alex Freeland. Instead, the Brewers may want to take a flyer on a high-upside arm like Christian Zazueta, a low-arm slot pitcher with plus fastball characteristics, a plus changeup and a solid slider, who has a 2.59 ERA this season with 59 strikeouts and 14 walks in 55 2/3 innings. That would be the right way to take advantage of the free-agent coup the team did manage, back in March. With the Brewers' depth finally on full display, and more yet to return from injury, who would you be willing to trade around the margins? And what would you expect in return? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Has anyone mentioned Daniel pierce much? Developing power, ridiculous bat to ball, plus defender, plus runner at shortstop? Seems like a Brewers fit and just baseball 2.0 has him at #20 for the crew. Now if you're looking to save money for later round the top two picks are the best way to do so, but Pierce seems like an up arrow player at this point by all accounts

I think it was all of 2024/25, and perhaps a note to his projected profile upon signing from the DSL as a hit over power prospect with strong defensive chops (it was a month+ ago now, apologies!)

I remember Baseball America talking about it in one of their podcasts!

The EV's have apparently popped up, but with a significant jump in his swing and miss

For those with a love of defensive metrics, Vivienne has created a model that updates daily and is proven to be more accurate and in line (in terms of probability) than statcast. For example a 5% play on OAA is often more like a 1-2% play. She explains more within, and some Brewers are very notable, especially Jackson Chourio in how she grades him out compared with statcast https://situational-fielding.streamlit.app/

Also slightly concerning is the increasing whiff rates from Burke

Misiorowski is out of the game for Nittoli. Hard not to believe, with two seven innings contests today, that at under 70 pitches the Brewers are being cautious of workload for both him and Logan Henderson as we approach the half way point of the season

Wilken still looking out of sorts somewhat. Whiffs on a hanging meatball slider/cutter first pitch, then repeats that on a similar pitch on the outer third. Takes a high fastball and then a half hearted swing at another meatball slider in zone for a four pitch strikeout

Luke Adams. First pitch. 101 mph hit 390ft to left center. The young man is on a tear

Also really heavy use of the curve so far and I am HERE for it. The slider and changeup are a little underused but the way the curve sets up the high fastball and the chase is a thing of beauty. Such a wonderful pitch for him

Yeesh. The line mightn't look so hot for Misiorowski with his third walk and almost another HBP earlier in the game, but this strike zone is so tight. He's nibbling a little and not getting many calls on the edges but this isn't a return to the wild Miz days of 2024. Not by a long shot

In response to this, Nestico is actually correcting my version this weekend, the X axis is graphed the wrong way around, meaning point 0 is actually on the right and the 800/900th pitch is on the left. Good spot Terry!

I'll drop him a message about it, very much could be!

You're using a 300 pitch rolling average, I've got it at 100! Maybe part of it? This is from tjstats

There are some inconsistencies and modelling that prevent this being 100% accurate, although Thomas Nesticos is fairly confident in it's overall validity regarding in zone/out of zone data. The swing rate is easier to get and Adams over his last ~300 pitches is hovering between 35-40% swing rate, a notch up while also showing a little more chase. Not a lot, and still far above average as a result of the low swing rates, but his in zone contact rates look pretty damn good

I retract everything. How dare I insinuate a 2024 draftee could surpass a member of the 2023 class. All bow to Knoth

The more I watch Bryce Meccage the more impressed I become. So polished, such depth in his arsenal for a high school arm and completely at home throwing his three major offerings in any count with all getting pretty strong swing and miss. I'd love to see the kick changeup coming through more and more but even so, he looks a class above. More so than Knoth and Letson managed last season for my money

Hey guys! So those of you who've read my stuff know that I love going into depth in the statistical world, but I'm always aware that I'm constantly learning myself. I thought I'd make a little thread where, when fantastic articles are written deconstructing the nuances of baseball in a brilliant way that we might have a place to share such pieces. Here's the first one. Covering the pronation and supination bias that you've possibly heard about and with some fantastic explanations of the effects of those biases in terms of how to spot them, the pitches they pair best with and some nuances around the discussion. For example, if you ever wondered why Corbin Burnes four seam fastball got lit up but the cutter was a perfect development for him, look no further. He also breaks down the importance of learning into seam effects (like a kick changeup for instance) to compensate for a lack of wrist mobility. For example a supinator may struggle to throw a change, and a pronator struggles to throw a sweeper but by adjusting the seams they can fill out their arsenal. A truly fascinating read if you've got a few minutes https://medium.com/@remibunikiewicz/what-you-dont-know-about-pronation-and-supination-4bf1e6e33aa2

Notably on the downturn after a 100 mph buzzed the tower high and tights on him

Myers touched 97 mph for his final pitch last night, an impressive feat. Velocity was up and down all night, sitting 95-96 for a few batters and then sitting more 90-92 with others. Fascinating again, only one changeup thrown. The pitch is a bit of a unicorn, with high IVB but massive velocity differential to his four seamers, a little like Drew Thorpe. I don't know if he's lost the feel for it, but I'm curious if he's working through some mechanical changes to unlock a little more velo and they're coming at the expense of some of his feel for the changeup. His five highest velocities came in his final 15 pitches, and look at the IVB on those bad boys!