Jake McKibbin
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Also, looking under the hood, but keep an eye on Brady Ebel's at bats. Some of the background stats have me wondering if he's not that far off, there's some very positive signs in there. The downside is you'll probably catch some other Warbirds AB's, which are really not pretty (Jose Anderson 50% strikeout rate, 47% whiff rate, I see you)
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Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Twenty-one games into the season, key relievers Aaron Ashby, Ángel Zerpa and Abner Uribe are all on pace for 85 or more innings. As all three are hurlers the Brewers expect to rely on heavily as the year develops, their early usage raises some concerns. Ashby was the most-used reliever in baseball this time last week, while Uribe and Zerpa have each pitched 10 times already. The first month of the season traditionally sees a more varied use of the bullpen arms. In one sense, the Brewers have this, with five different pitchers already at 10 innings or more. However, while DL Hall and Grant Anderson have been innings sponges, too much work is being left to the guys the team needs to be fresh come October. Because of a few short starts and a lack of trust in Jake Woodford, the Brewers haven't been able to stay away from their 'A' relievers even on days when they tried to do so. As a perfect example, over the weekend, Woodford forced Pat Murphy to use Uribe after the Brewers gave him a five-run lead with six outs to go. Woodford managed just four outs and left a bases-loaded mess for Uribe to clean up, with the winning run at the plate. What constitutes bullpen overuse? One of the best ways to limit bullpen mismanagement is to provide a variety of capable, reliable arms who can get outs in almost any situation. With a cap of 13 pitchers on a roster (unless you have Shohei Ohtani, in which case you can have 14), the Brewers are limited to eight relievers. Using spot starters and pushing back starters in the rotation can bring this down to seven options; that's when things get especially tenuous. With a rubber arm whom you trust to go multiple innings on either side of a blowout, you can get away with this. Since Woodford has been untrustworthy and Hall has been inefficient, though, Murphy has been compelled to go with more back-to-backs from key pitchers. Putting this in perspective, Milwaukee threw 634 2/3 innings out of the pen last year, a number dropping to 600 when you exclude the innings pitched by a starter following an opener (mostly Quinn Priester). That means that the average game requires 11 outs from the bullpen; getting them out of six or even seven guys consistently quickly gets thorny. Looking at last year's collection of guys who cycled through (Tobias Myers, Connor Thomas, Bryan Hudson, Erick Fedde, Rob Zastryzny, et al), there are probably 120 innings of work picked up from relievers covering short-term injuries. For the other 480 innings, things can get dicey; if you have just six relievers splitting the load, that would be 80 innings per arm, whereas with a full trusted cohort of eight relievers, you average a far more acceptable 60 innings per reliever. Here's how Uribe's swinging strike rate trended throughout 2025; pay attention to what happened after he surpassed 65 appearances: That range—60-65 games—is the benchmark the Brewers should strive for, noting how Uribe struggled after that point. We saw similar declines with Ashby and Jared Koenig after a heavy workload. How Do The Brewers Limit Such Innings? There is one very obvious solution. The Brewers will want someone capable of going multiple innings, especially in the middle of games, who can be trusted to prevent the floodgates opening either with a big lead or a larger deficit. It would need to be someone who is stretched out, with solid stuff and command to get outs consistently. Properly conceptualized, this is the perfect place in which to give a young hurler some time and space to develop in the big leagues. The Brewers have a number of such arms, being absolutely blessed with rotation depth. Priester is on the mend and building back up with Nashville now, targeting a return around the middle of May. When he returns, Chad Patrick or Brandon Sproat could be pushed to the bullpen. In the meantime, Robert Gasser, Logan Henderson and Shane Drohan could all fill this role with aplomb. Each of them are on the 40-man roster; has appeared for the Brewers; and is stretched out enough to take on the workload. At the front of the list might be Drohan, who notably entered his last "start" behind an opener. He'd seem to be the best situated for that kind of role, based on a number of factors. Logan Henderson's unique, effective fastball and deadly changeup would be another option, coming from the right side with the type of stuff that can mow hitters down. It limits his exposure the third time through an order, but can give him space to test his slurve in the big leagues while leaning on his bread-and-butter offerings. The Brewers' plethora of young, talented arms need some big-league experience to continue their development. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes filled similar long-relief roles when they were called up and did so with aplomb, allowing them to develop and assimilate while priming them to break out the following season. More importantly, they ate innings and provided results. Murphy's circle of trust is a small, closed circle. Breaking into it isn't easy. Woodford is almost certainly not getting in there now, and the last man in the bullpen is more important than one would think. Having a viable, high-quality arm for multi-inning relief alongside Ashby might be the best solution for all involved, and each of Henderson, Drohan and Gasser could provide that. How do you assess the Brewers early bullpen usage? Can you see them using one of their younger arms to fill a need, or would they prefer to keep them stretched out in Nashville? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! 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How Can the Brewers Bullpen Balance "Win Tonight" with "Win In October"?
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
Twenty-one games into the season, key relievers Aaron Ashby, Ángel Zerpa and Abner Uribe are all on pace for 85 or more innings. As all three are hurlers the Brewers expect to rely on heavily as the year develops, their early usage raises some concerns. Ashby was the most-used reliever in baseball this time last week, while Uribe and Zerpa have each pitched 10 times already. The first month of the season traditionally sees a more varied use of the bullpen arms. In one sense, the Brewers have this, with five different pitchers already at 10 innings or more. However, while DL Hall and Grant Anderson have been innings sponges, too much work is being left to the guys the team needs to be fresh come October. Because of a few short starts and a lack of trust in Jake Woodford, the Brewers haven't been able to stay away from their 'A' relievers even on days when they tried to do so. As a perfect example, over the weekend, Woodford forced Pat Murphy to use Uribe after the Brewers gave him a five-run lead with six outs to go. Woodford managed just four outs and left a bases-loaded mess for Uribe to clean up, with the winning run at the plate. What constitutes bullpen overuse? One of the best ways to limit bullpen mismanagement is to provide a variety of capable, reliable arms who can get outs in almost any situation. With a cap of 13 pitchers on a roster (unless you have Shohei Ohtani, in which case you can have 14), the Brewers are limited to eight relievers. Using spot starters and pushing back starters in the rotation can bring this down to seven options; that's when things get especially tenuous. With a rubber arm whom you trust to go multiple innings on either side of a blowout, you can get away with this. Since Woodford has been untrustworthy and Hall has been inefficient, though, Murphy has been compelled to go with more back-to-backs from key pitchers. Putting this in perspective, Milwaukee threw 634 2/3 innings out of the pen last year, a number dropping to 600 when you exclude the innings pitched by a starter following an opener (mostly Quinn Priester). That means that the average game requires 11 outs from the bullpen; getting them out of six or even seven guys consistently quickly gets thorny. Looking at last year's collection of guys who cycled through (Tobias Myers, Connor Thomas, Bryan Hudson, Erick Fedde, Rob Zastryzny, et al), there are probably 120 innings of work picked up from relievers covering short-term injuries. For the other 480 innings, things can get dicey; if you have just six relievers splitting the load, that would be 80 innings per arm, whereas with a full trusted cohort of eight relievers, you average a far more acceptable 60 innings per reliever. Here's how Uribe's swinging strike rate trended throughout 2025; pay attention to what happened after he surpassed 65 appearances: That range—60-65 games—is the benchmark the Brewers should strive for, noting how Uribe struggled after that point. We saw similar declines with Ashby and Jared Koenig after a heavy workload. How Do The Brewers Limit Such Innings? There is one very obvious solution. The Brewers will want someone capable of going multiple innings, especially in the middle of games, who can be trusted to prevent the floodgates opening either with a big lead or a larger deficit. It would need to be someone who is stretched out, with solid stuff and command to get outs consistently. Properly conceptualized, this is the perfect place in which to give a young hurler some time and space to develop in the big leagues. The Brewers have a number of such arms, being absolutely blessed with rotation depth. Priester is on the mend and building back up with Nashville now, targeting a return around the middle of May. When he returns, Chad Patrick or Brandon Sproat could be pushed to the bullpen. In the meantime, Robert Gasser, Logan Henderson and Shane Drohan could all fill this role with aplomb. Each of them are on the 40-man roster; has appeared for the Brewers; and is stretched out enough to take on the workload. At the front of the list might be Drohan, who notably entered his last "start" behind an opener. He'd seem to be the best situated for that kind of role, based on a number of factors. Logan Henderson's unique, effective fastball and deadly changeup would be another option, coming from the right side with the type of stuff that can mow hitters down. It limits his exposure the third time through an order, but can give him space to test his slurve in the big leagues while leaning on his bread-and-butter offerings. The Brewers' plethora of young, talented arms need some big-league experience to continue their development. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes filled similar long-relief roles when they were called up and did so with aplomb, allowing them to develop and assimilate while priming them to break out the following season. More importantly, they ate innings and provided results. Murphy's circle of trust is a small, closed circle. Breaking into it isn't easy. Woodford is almost certainly not getting in there now, and the last man in the bullpen is more important than one would think. Having a viable, high-quality arm for multi-inning relief alongside Ashby might be the best solution for all involved, and each of Henderson, Drohan and Gasser could provide that. How do you assess the Brewers early bullpen usage? Can you see them using one of their younger arms to fill a need, or would they prefer to keep them stretched out in Nashville? 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Image courtesy of © Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Jacob Misiorowski is the ace of the Brewers staff. Even after covering 5 1/3 innings of work while feeling visibly sick on Tuesday evening, he's striking out 37.5% of batters on the season, while inducing an expected batting average of just .178. He's faced some misfortune in his 3.32 ERA so far from the quality of contact he's given up, and even then, five of his eight runs allowed have come in his final inning of work in games. It's not uncommon for pitchers to continue building up and adjusting to the workload of 100-plus pitches, and in half of his outings to date, Misiorowski has been pitching sick. That's not to give an excuse for the young hurler; these are issues many pitchers have to deal with. It does, however, show just what Misiorowski is capable of, and he's made clear strides early on this season. He's allowing fewer barrelled balls and lower exit velocities, and seems to have an altogether different way of using his arsenal. As you might expect, it all comes down to his fastball. Misiorowski lets this set the tone early, generating above-average ride and extreme velocity from a low release height and big extension down the mound. If you could build a four-seam fastball in a lab, this is what it would look like. The interesting part here is that he's finding the zone less often with it. Usually, pitchers use their fastballs to get ahead in counts, hitting the zone 55% of the time or more with them. Misiorowski, who battled command throughout the minors, tried to find more control with his fastball and follow this template, to mixed results. While he found the zone more often (as you can see below) on his four-seamer, his cutter/slider, and his curveball, he was getting less chase and less effective results. He's getting more swing and miss thus far in 2026 across each of his three primary offerings—by getting out of the zone with the heater more, denying hitters early contact. You might say "Jake, of course they'll miss more if they're swinging on pitches outside the strike zone." You'd be correct, but the way Misiorowski has adapted to make that work—to miss more bats and rack up strikeouts, rather than watching hitters spit on his not-so-tempting out-of-zone pitches and draw lots of walks—shows impressive command, going beyond simple control. Despite some early problems with fatigue (including three consecutive walks to finish his outing against the Red Sox), his walk rate is lower across his first three starts than he managed in 2026. This is a small sample, but by encouraging more chase on his fastball and his slider, he's managing to avoid free passes when fit and firing. The key element here is how much his fastball rises, compared to what a hitter expects. With elite induced vertical break (or spin-related movement) and his low release point, Misiorowski has a fastball that comes in flatter than a hitter perceives. What looks like a strike at the top of the zone can finish several inches above that zone, and hitters have little time to adjust, due to the speed at which the pitch is thrown. In 2025, only the slider could really protect against the fastball. The curveball, to land in the strike zone, had to pop out of his hand, tunneling quite differently. If he can live with that fastball slightly above the zone, the results in how his pitches tunnel is stark, as shown by FanGraphs's pitch pairing model. If Misiorowski is getting chases above the strike zone with his fastball, every offering around his primary pitch can tunnel off that and be in and around the zone for a long time before breaking away. It means hitters have a tougher time identifying the pitch thrown by the time they make their swing decision, and it's resulted in some uglier swings and more whiffs than ever. If that fastball is lower in the zone, all of a sudden the curveball, if tunnelled, becomes a non-factor in the swing decision, and if not tunnelled, it becomes far easier to pick up out of the hand. It isn't just the swing-and-miss that's been different early on. The bat-tracking data against Misiorowski's arsenal so far has dramatically improved as well: While there is some small sample size here, Misiorowski has faced big bat speed merchants like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Colson Montgomery, James Wood and Roman Anthony thus far in 2026. His average bat speed faced is down over 1 MPH, while the fast swing rate, attack angles and attack directions all indicate later swings and more uncomfortable at-bats. Hitters are struggling to access good attack angles with their bat paths. They've shortened their swings to make contact with his fastball, and are late, anyway, with a 4° attack direction going to the opposite field. Placing in the top 5 across each of these six statistics highlights just how uncomfortable hitters are with Misiorowski on the mound. Other leaders in these categories include Nolan McLean, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Cam Schlittler and Sandy Alcantara. That's elite company, which should be no surprise. Finally, Misiorowski showed against the Red Sox that he doesn't have to live outside the zone. Knowing he had limited capacity for a large pitch count, Misiorowski pounded the strike zone, particularly with his slider and curveball. He can find the zone when he needs to, but his low in-zone rate so far this season (on top of the success he's had with it) would indicate this is a plan, and one that he's executing effectively to date. How well it holds up against top offenses like the Dodgers will be fascinating to see, but for now, Misiorwoski is showing serious strides towards becoming a bona fide ace. Have you enjoyed watching Misiorowski this year? Have you noticed any real changes? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article
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How is Jacob Misiorowski Forcing Some of the Ugliest Swings in Baseball?
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
Jacob Misiorowski is the ace of the Brewers staff. Even after covering 5 1/3 innings of work while feeling visibly sick on Tuesday evening, he's striking out 37.5% of batters on the season, while inducing an expected batting average of just .178. He's faced some misfortune in his 3.32 ERA so far from the quality of contact he's given up, and even then, five of his eight runs allowed have come in his final inning of work in games. It's not uncommon for pitchers to continue building up and adjusting to the workload of 100-plus pitches, and in half of his outings to date, Misiorowski has been pitching sick. That's not to give an excuse for the young hurler; these are issues many pitchers have to deal with. It does, however, show just what Misiorowski is capable of, and he's made clear strides early on this season. He's allowing fewer barrelled balls and lower exit velocities, and seems to have an altogether different way of using his arsenal. As you might expect, it all comes down to his fastball. Misiorowski lets this set the tone early, generating above-average ride and extreme velocity from a low release height and big extension down the mound. If you could build a four-seam fastball in a lab, this is what it would look like. The interesting part here is that he's finding the zone less often with it. Usually, pitchers use their fastballs to get ahead in counts, hitting the zone 55% of the time or more with them. Misiorowski, who battled command throughout the minors, tried to find more control with his fastball and follow this template, to mixed results. While he found the zone more often (as you can see below) on his four-seamer, his cutter/slider, and his curveball, he was getting less chase and less effective results. He's getting more swing and miss thus far in 2026 across each of his three primary offerings—by getting out of the zone with the heater more, denying hitters early contact. You might say "Jake, of course they'll miss more if they're swinging on pitches outside the strike zone." You'd be correct, but the way Misiorowski has adapted to make that work—to miss more bats and rack up strikeouts, rather than watching hitters spit on his not-so-tempting out-of-zone pitches and draw lots of walks—shows impressive command, going beyond simple control. Despite some early problems with fatigue (including three consecutive walks to finish his outing against the Red Sox), his walk rate is lower across his first three starts than he managed in 2026. This is a small sample, but by encouraging more chase on his fastball and his slider, he's managing to avoid free passes when fit and firing. The key element here is how much his fastball rises, compared to what a hitter expects. With elite induced vertical break (or spin-related movement) and his low release point, Misiorowski has a fastball that comes in flatter than a hitter perceives. What looks like a strike at the top of the zone can finish several inches above that zone, and hitters have little time to adjust, due to the speed at which the pitch is thrown. In 2025, only the slider could really protect against the fastball. The curveball, to land in the strike zone, had to pop out of his hand, tunneling quite differently. If he can live with that fastball slightly above the zone, the results in how his pitches tunnel is stark, as shown by FanGraphs's pitch pairing model. If Misiorowski is getting chases above the strike zone with his fastball, every offering around his primary pitch can tunnel off that and be in and around the zone for a long time before breaking away. It means hitters have a tougher time identifying the pitch thrown by the time they make their swing decision, and it's resulted in some uglier swings and more whiffs than ever. If that fastball is lower in the zone, all of a sudden the curveball, if tunnelled, becomes a non-factor in the swing decision, and if not tunnelled, it becomes far easier to pick up out of the hand. It isn't just the swing-and-miss that's been different early on. The bat-tracking data against Misiorowski's arsenal so far has dramatically improved as well: While there is some small sample size here, Misiorowski has faced big bat speed merchants like Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Colson Montgomery, James Wood and Roman Anthony thus far in 2026. His average bat speed faced is down over 1 MPH, while the fast swing rate, attack angles and attack directions all indicate later swings and more uncomfortable at-bats. Hitters are struggling to access good attack angles with their bat paths. They've shortened their swings to make contact with his fastball, and are late, anyway, with a 4° attack direction going to the opposite field. Placing in the top 5 across each of these six statistics highlights just how uncomfortable hitters are with Misiorowski on the mound. Other leaders in these categories include Nolan McLean, Kevin Gausman, Dylan Cease, Cam Schlittler and Sandy Alcantara. That's elite company, which should be no surprise. Finally, Misiorowski showed against the Red Sox that he doesn't have to live outside the zone. Knowing he had limited capacity for a large pitch count, Misiorowski pounded the strike zone, particularly with his slider and curveball. He can find the zone when he needs to, but his low in-zone rate so far this season (on top of the success he's had with it) would indicate this is a plan, and one that he's executing effectively to date. How well it holds up against top offenses like the Dodgers will be fascinating to see, but for now, Misiorwoski is showing serious strides towards becoming a bona fide ace. Have you enjoyed watching Misiorowski this year? Have you noticed any real changes? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below! -
Image courtesy of © William Purnell-Imagn Images Brandon Sproat probably couldn't imagine a worse start to his Brewers tenure. With under 7 innings pitched and 11 earned runs to his name after two starts, Sproat needs to show some progress over his next few starts; Robert Gasser and Logan Henderson are waiting in the wings. The question is: How can he turn things around? Initially, PitchProfiler seems to suggest that Sproat lacks a dominant fastball, and hitters are finding it too easy to time both it and his secondary offerings. Looking a little closer, however (specifically at the graph in the top right), that's not entirely true. Sinkers rarely get glowing grades from stuff models, because even good sinkers don't have the same correlation with swing-and-miss as (say) a four-seam fastball or curveball would. That being said, Sproat's sinker has some wicked bowling ball-like movement, producing a 104 Stuff+ rating to right-handers. The rub: an ugly 87 Stuff+ to left-handers. That's a big disparity, and it prompted me to look a little deeper. The Brewers love fastballs almost more than any other team in baseball, but that sinker won't consistently play well on its own to lefties, without excellent command. This is where the Brewers and Mets have differed in their approach. The Mets used a pitch pattern more similar to Logan Webb, utilizing a changeup and sinker tandem that have similar movement profiles but different velocity bands. The pitches look very similar, but the change in velocity makes Webb one of the best ground ball merchants in the sport. In his brief time in the big leagues with the Mets last year, Sproat featured his changeup, curveball and four-seamer, at the expense of the sinker. So far, the Brewers have him trying to make the sinker work, despite that pitch's almost universally stark platoon splits. They've preferred the new, harder slider (or cutter) over the changeup; it's a pitch that fits their traditional approach well. Alas, because the cutter and sinker have such a large difference in how much they move, the cutter is getting hit. Across 27 pitches (small sample size alert), lefties have cracked two homers and have a .744 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) against the cutter. (Remember, xwOBA is scaled to on-base percentage, so a .744 is video game-level violence.) When the pitch is being primarily used to come inside on lefties, it has to be located and set up well enough to survive those danger zones. So far, Sproat doesn't have that. He's nervously approaching left-handers at present, falling behind a lot and nibbling with the sinker. He's living down and away in the strike zone, but falling behind in counts has proved devastating for him. The fastballs just don't play over the heart of the plate to opposite-handed hitters, and he's struggled to get swings and misses on all but the changeup to lefties. The changeup has dropped from 25% to 11% usage in 2026, and it hasn't been located well enough to play off his sinker; pairing those pitches productively is always difficult. As you can see from the first graphic, these pitches move almost identically, and the changeup is only 5 MPH slower. The velocity separation would ideally be larger, but the changeup has managed to miss bats. Hopefully, it's something he feels more comfortable using against left-handers in his next two starts, but he'll also need a different way to set it up. The main issue for Sproat is the walks. He's faced 19 left-handed batters and walked six of them, compared to three strikeouts, with five hits on top of that. It's a result of a fastball he doesn't feel comfortable pounding the strike zone with, and the lack of a genuine out pitch in two-strike counts. The changeup may solve the latter, but it will be fascinating to see if the Brewers adjust his fastball mix, too, including getting back to more four-seam fastballs. It's also worth noting that Sproat has been caught by Gary Sánchez and Jeferson Quero in his first two starts. How William Contreras calls the game might be different, and the presence he provides behind the dish could help Sproat as he continues to ease into his role as a major-league pitcher. Two things can be true at once. Sproat has been bogged down by nerves across his first two starts, showing more erratic command as a result. He could tighten up how he's attacking hitters to weather the storm better and come out the other side with better results. The raw velocity and movement are there, but piecing it together has involved a steep learning curve for him at this level. How quickly he can navigate that curve will go a long way to deciding where he's playing baseball in May and June. View full article
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Does Brandon Sproat Need to Tweak His Arsenal Against Lefties?
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
Brandon Sproat probably couldn't imagine a worse start to his Brewers tenure. With under 7 innings pitched and 11 earned runs to his name after two starts, Sproat needs to show some progress over his next few starts; Robert Gasser and Logan Henderson are waiting in the wings. The question is: How can he turn things around? Initially, PitchProfiler seems to suggest that Sproat lacks a dominant fastball, and hitters are finding it too easy to time both it and his secondary offerings. Looking a little closer, however (specifically at the graph in the top right), that's not entirely true. Sinkers rarely get glowing grades from stuff models, because even good sinkers don't have the same correlation with swing-and-miss as (say) a four-seam fastball or curveball would. That being said, Sproat's sinker has some wicked bowling ball-like movement, producing a 104 Stuff+ rating to right-handers. The rub: an ugly 87 Stuff+ to left-handers. That's a big disparity, and it prompted me to look a little deeper. The Brewers love fastballs almost more than any other team in baseball, but that sinker won't consistently play well on its own to lefties, without excellent command. This is where the Brewers and Mets have differed in their approach. The Mets used a pitch pattern more similar to Logan Webb, utilizing a changeup and sinker tandem that have similar movement profiles but different velocity bands. The pitches look very similar, but the change in velocity makes Webb one of the best ground ball merchants in the sport. In his brief time in the big leagues with the Mets last year, Sproat featured his changeup, curveball and four-seamer, at the expense of the sinker. So far, the Brewers have him trying to make the sinker work, despite that pitch's almost universally stark platoon splits. They've preferred the new, harder slider (or cutter) over the changeup; it's a pitch that fits their traditional approach well. Alas, because the cutter and sinker have such a large difference in how much they move, the cutter is getting hit. Across 27 pitches (small sample size alert), lefties have cracked two homers and have a .744 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) against the cutter. (Remember, xwOBA is scaled to on-base percentage, so a .744 is video game-level violence.) When the pitch is being primarily used to come inside on lefties, it has to be located and set up well enough to survive those danger zones. So far, Sproat doesn't have that. He's nervously approaching left-handers at present, falling behind a lot and nibbling with the sinker. He's living down and away in the strike zone, but falling behind in counts has proved devastating for him. The fastballs just don't play over the heart of the plate to opposite-handed hitters, and he's struggled to get swings and misses on all but the changeup to lefties. The changeup has dropped from 25% to 11% usage in 2026, and it hasn't been located well enough to play off his sinker; pairing those pitches productively is always difficult. As you can see from the first graphic, these pitches move almost identically, and the changeup is only 5 MPH slower. The velocity separation would ideally be larger, but the changeup has managed to miss bats. Hopefully, it's something he feels more comfortable using against left-handers in his next two starts, but he'll also need a different way to set it up. The main issue for Sproat is the walks. He's faced 19 left-handed batters and walked six of them, compared to three strikeouts, with five hits on top of that. It's a result of a fastball he doesn't feel comfortable pounding the strike zone with, and the lack of a genuine out pitch in two-strike counts. The changeup may solve the latter, but it will be fascinating to see if the Brewers adjust his fastball mix, too, including getting back to more four-seam fastballs. It's also worth noting that Sproat has been caught by Gary Sánchez and Jeferson Quero in his first two starts. How William Contreras calls the game might be different, and the presence he provides behind the dish could help Sproat as he continues to ease into his role as a major-league pitcher. Two things can be true at once. Sproat has been bogged down by nerves across his first two starts, showing more erratic command as a result. He could tighten up how he's attacking hitters to weather the storm better and come out the other side with better results. The raw velocity and movement are there, but piecing it together has involved a steep learning curve for him at this level. How quickly he can navigate that curve will go a long way to deciding where he's playing baseball in May and June. -
Good question! That would be Luis Lara Other outliers include Brock Wilken (best EV's in camp, but 35% whiff rate) Jesus made (40% whiff rate, 90+ mph EV on the right hand side) Sal Frelick on the left with second lowest EV's in camp
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Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images We know that batting averages and OPSes mean very little in spring. As Brewers fans remember well, the adventures of Vinny Capra proved to have no correlation with his performance in the regular season. He hit six home runs in the spring of 2025 and was gone from the organization by the middle of May. Pitchers aren't game-planning. Their command is hardly dialed-in, and that leaves opportunities for hitters to excel in a small sample. After four long, lonely, starving months without baseball activity, it's easy to get carried away, but that doesn't mean we have nothing to get excited about. If you're a Brewers fan, it's quite the contrary. Let's have a look at those who are making strides from their last competitive action, and why each offers a reason for positivity for a team that reached the NLCS in 2025. Brandon Sproat Brandon Sproat came over as part of the Freddy Peralta trade and has hit the ground running. Possessing a full, diverse arsenal that perhaps wasn't showcased enough by the Mets in 2025 during his cup of coffee, Sproat showed exactly how the Brewers plan to use him in 2026. Sproat has converted what was already a hard 88-mph slider into a mid-90s cutter (touching 95 mph at times) and blended the four-seamer he was renowned for in the minor leagues with the complementary sinker and cutter that the Brewers prize so dearly. While the stuff grades don't pop off the page, the hitters' swings—and the simple eye test—suggest that his combination of power and movement is valuable. He threw nearly all his fastballs for strikes, but didn't land his secondary stuff in the zone in his first game in the Cactus League. There will be far more nuance in the regular season, but the most intriguing part was the swing-and-miss element of Sproat's arsenal. He conceded two hard-hit balls—one on an upper-third four-seam fastball and the other on a back-up sweeper—but when he executed, he missed bats. Sproat struck out 17 in 20 2/3 innings last year in the major leagues, which would once have counted as dominant but doesn't open any eyes anymore. Changes to his pitch mix should increase the deception in his arsenal, and perhaps allow everything to play up. It's too early to tell, but it bears watching as spring progresses. Bishop Letson Letson has been a name on evaluators' lips for a while, struggling to stay on the field with regularity but showcasing extension, movement, command and a deep enough arsenal to generate some early hype in his young professional career. Over the offseason, his fastball has added several ticks, and the result is monstrous: Letson's fastball has averaged almost 97 mph this spring, with extreme vertical "rise" for his arm angle; plus extension; and big-time spin. It's a fastball that could be dominant. So far, he doesn't know how to tunnel it with his other offerings, using a higher release point than the rest of his arsenal to get behind the ball. That's one reason why he prefers to lead with his slider. The changeup will be key for Letson going forward, offering him an alternative out pitch to left-handed hitters, against whom a slider is typically less effective. The pitch shows good characteristics, but he'll need to improve his feel for it as he matures. Health is the main concern for Letson, but if he can stay on the field, there might be a top-of-the-rotation arm to dream on. Brandon Lockridge Lockridge appeared, initially, to be a throwaway piece in the deal that sent Nestor Cortes and Jorge Quintana to the Padres at the 2025 trade deadline. His elite speed seemed unlikely to make up for a dearth of power, but rumors did spread that the Brewers were higher on Lockridge than most. This spring, we've seen some of the fruits of this. Of Brewers to have seen over 50 pitches, only one player (Brock Wilken) has a higher average exit velocity, and only two hitters (Brice Turang and David Hamilton) have swung and missed less often. In the chart below, Lockridge's emblem is the one in the top left: Turang is Lockridge's closest comparison on this chart, also whiffing very little (just once in camp so far) without quite as much contact as Lockridge in the small sample. In case you're concerned about Vinny Capra comparisons, Capra averaged 94 mph exit velocities but did swing and miss 22% of the time last year. Lockridge won't tear through the league the way he did through early spring training games, but he's been creating hard hits across the strike zone. That changes his profile substantially. The Brewers are no strangers to an outfielder making strides, Blake Perkins being the most recent example of an unheralded pickup making a meaningful impact. Lockridge's potential is greater, but of course, we'll need a larger sample before locking in any observations. Have you noticed any other standouts in spring training that have impressed? Have you enjoyed any of the prospects making appearances, from Brock Wilken to Jesus Made? Let us know your thoughts below! View full article
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3 Brewers Players Opening the Most Eyes in Spring Training
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
We know that batting averages and OPSes mean very little in spring. As Brewers fans remember well, the adventures of Vinny Capra proved to have no correlation with his performance in the regular season. He hit six home runs in the spring of 2025 and was gone from the organization by the middle of May. Pitchers aren't game-planning. Their command is hardly dialed-in, and that leaves opportunities for hitters to excel in a small sample. After four long, lonely, starving months without baseball activity, it's easy to get carried away, but that doesn't mean we have nothing to get excited about. If you're a Brewers fan, it's quite the contrary. Let's have a look at those who are making strides from their last competitive action, and why each offers a reason for positivity for a team that reached the NLCS in 2025. Brandon Sproat Brandon Sproat came over as part of the Freddy Peralta trade and has hit the ground running. Possessing a full, diverse arsenal that perhaps wasn't showcased enough by the Mets in 2025 during his cup of coffee, Sproat showed exactly how the Brewers plan to use him in 2026. Sproat has converted what was already a hard 88-mph slider into a mid-90s cutter (touching 95 mph at times) and blended the four-seamer he was renowned for in the minor leagues with the complementary sinker and cutter that the Brewers prize so dearly. While the stuff grades don't pop off the page, the hitters' swings—and the simple eye test—suggest that his combination of power and movement is valuable. He threw nearly all his fastballs for strikes, but didn't land his secondary stuff in the zone in his first game in the Cactus League. There will be far more nuance in the regular season, but the most intriguing part was the swing-and-miss element of Sproat's arsenal. He conceded two hard-hit balls—one on an upper-third four-seam fastball and the other on a back-up sweeper—but when he executed, he missed bats. Sproat struck out 17 in 20 2/3 innings last year in the major leagues, which would once have counted as dominant but doesn't open any eyes anymore. Changes to his pitch mix should increase the deception in his arsenal, and perhaps allow everything to play up. It's too early to tell, but it bears watching as spring progresses. Bishop Letson Letson has been a name on evaluators' lips for a while, struggling to stay on the field with regularity but showcasing extension, movement, command and a deep enough arsenal to generate some early hype in his young professional career. Over the offseason, his fastball has added several ticks, and the result is monstrous: Letson's fastball has averaged almost 97 mph this spring, with extreme vertical "rise" for his arm angle; plus extension; and big-time spin. It's a fastball that could be dominant. So far, he doesn't know how to tunnel it with his other offerings, using a higher release point than the rest of his arsenal to get behind the ball. That's one reason why he prefers to lead with his slider. The changeup will be key for Letson going forward, offering him an alternative out pitch to left-handed hitters, against whom a slider is typically less effective. The pitch shows good characteristics, but he'll need to improve his feel for it as he matures. Health is the main concern for Letson, but if he can stay on the field, there might be a top-of-the-rotation arm to dream on. Brandon Lockridge Lockridge appeared, initially, to be a throwaway piece in the deal that sent Nestor Cortes and Jorge Quintana to the Padres at the 2025 trade deadline. His elite speed seemed unlikely to make up for a dearth of power, but rumors did spread that the Brewers were higher on Lockridge than most. This spring, we've seen some of the fruits of this. Of Brewers to have seen over 50 pitches, only one player (Brock Wilken) has a higher average exit velocity, and only two hitters (Brice Turang and David Hamilton) have swung and missed less often. In the chart below, Lockridge's emblem is the one in the top left: Turang is Lockridge's closest comparison on this chart, also whiffing very little (just once in camp so far) without quite as much contact as Lockridge in the small sample. In case you're concerned about Vinny Capra comparisons, Capra averaged 94 mph exit velocities but did swing and miss 22% of the time last year. Lockridge won't tear through the league the way he did through early spring training games, but he's been creating hard hits across the strike zone. That changes his profile substantially. The Brewers are no strangers to an outfielder making strides, Blake Perkins being the most recent example of an unheralded pickup making a meaningful impact. Lockridge's potential is greater, but of course, we'll need a larger sample before locking in any observations. Have you noticed any other standouts in spring training that have impressed? Have you enjoyed any of the prospects making appearances, from Brock Wilken to Jesus Made? Let us know your thoughts below!- 5 comments
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Image courtesy of © Eric Canha-Imagn Images While he was with the San Francisco Giants, Kyle Harrison was predominantly a four-seam fastball and "slurve" pitcher, adding the occasional changeup to right-handed hitters. For large parts of his development through the minor leagues, Harrison overpowered hitters with his funky low-slot delivery and the deception of that heater-slurve combo. In the low minors, he missed lots of bats, and he peaked as the No. 18 prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline in 2023. Here's the blurb that went with that lofty ranking. Harrison debuted with the Giants in 2024, posting a 4.56 ERA in 124 1/3 innings pitched, and saw his overall swing-and-miss rates drop while he consistently struggled with walks. His three-pitch mix proved less potent against the best hitters in the world, and after spending time on the shuttle for the Giants in 2025 between Triple A and the major leagues, Harrison was part of the return in the Rafael Devers trade with Boston. The Boston Red Sox Do Boston Red Sox Things Boston is known for being an organization heavily focused on secondary pitches, and keen to limit fastball usage. Although the Brewers prefer to lean on the heater, they also like pitch diversification, so it's no shock that the two teams match up well on pitcher evaluations. Milwaukee got Quinn Priester from Boston last April, to patch their desperately injury-diminished starting rotation. Now, they've picked up Harrison, after a similar transformation during a similarly short time with the Sox. Harrison's fastball usage shifted dramatically in his small sample of big-league appearances with the Red Sox, compared to those with the Giants: His velocity dipped—perhaps from the long season, as we can also see his extension shortening after the trade. That's worth keeping an eye on. However, Harrison also made some fascinating deeper adjustments. Transforming from a three-pitch mix and using four-seam fastballs 65% of the time to throwing just 46% four-seam fastballs and incorporating more slurves, cutters and sinkers made a big change to the quality of contact against Harrison. While his whiff rates weren't as strong, he was getting more chases and just a .280 xwOBACON (a statistic measuring the likely damage on contact), which would be an elite mark over a larger sample. The changeup is particularly notable. After joining the Red Sox, Harrison changed his grip from a one-seam orientation into a kick-change, something the Brewers haven't seen much of within their player development system. This version usually creates more depth, but also more inconsistent movement, making it difficult to command at times. When it's right, the kick-change will produce negative induced vertical break numbers (IVB) with ease, and in Triple A, Harrison's approached -10 inches of IVB on occasion, with an overall three inches of extra drop on average. The San Francisco Quandary The Giants have recently had a number of high-profile, talented arms pass through their system with enormous hype, but have trouble translating that onto the big-league mound. Despite an elite defensive catcher in Patrick Bailey and a pitcher's park, it hasn't come together. Perhaps it's time to question their development processes. One additional change Harrison made after going to the Red Sox lay in how he used his slurve. The Giants were adamantly and rigidly calling it to one side of the plate, down and away from lefties and toward the back foot of righties., The Red Sox encouraged him to open up both sides of the plate to complement his enhanced arsenal. The goal here was to elicit more confusion in the hitter's eye as to what pitch was coming his way, and the deception worked. He learned to land the pitch for strikes and backdoor it, as well as being able to bury it near the right-handed batter's box. Harrison located the slurve in the zone more often, got more chase, and still maintained a higher quality of contact against the pitch than he managed with San Francisco in the first half of the year. He's never likely to be a strikeout artist in the majors, but his strong movement, funky delivery, and a wider pitch mix can make him a true all-around pitcher. The majority of Harrison's Triple-A games came for the Red Sox, and they paint a picture of what he might look like at his best: Harrison does have some walk issues. As with Priester, there might be a mechanical tweak in mind to clean up his delivery, but with his ability to garner chase, limit hard contact and miss bats both in and out of the strike zone, there is a lot to like about Kyle Harrison—especially in an organization like the Milwaukee Brewers. View full article
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While he was with the San Francisco Giants, Kyle Harrison was predominantly a four-seam fastball and "slurve" pitcher, adding the occasional changeup to right-handed hitters. For large parts of his development through the minor leagues, Harrison overpowered hitters with his funky low-slot delivery and the deception of that heater-slurve combo. In the low minors, he missed lots of bats, and he peaked as the No. 18 prospect in baseball, according to MLB Pipeline in 2023. Here's the blurb that went with that lofty ranking. Harrison debuted with the Giants in 2024, posting a 4.56 ERA in 124 1/3 innings pitched, and saw his overall swing-and-miss rates drop while he consistently struggled with walks. His three-pitch mix proved less potent against the best hitters in the world, and after spending time on the shuttle for the Giants in 2025 between Triple A and the major leagues, Harrison was part of the return in the Rafael Devers trade with Boston. The Boston Red Sox Do Boston Red Sox Things Boston is known for being an organization heavily focused on secondary pitches, and keen to limit fastball usage. Although the Brewers prefer to lean on the heater, they also like pitch diversification, so it's no shock that the two teams match up well on pitcher evaluations. Milwaukee got Quinn Priester from Boston last April, to patch their desperately injury-diminished starting rotation. Now, they've picked up Harrison, after a similar transformation during a similarly short time with the Sox. Harrison's fastball usage shifted dramatically in his small sample of big-league appearances with the Red Sox, compared to those with the Giants: His velocity dipped—perhaps from the long season, as we can also see his extension shortening after the trade. That's worth keeping an eye on. However, Harrison also made some fascinating deeper adjustments. Transforming from a three-pitch mix and using four-seam fastballs 65% of the time to throwing just 46% four-seam fastballs and incorporating more slurves, cutters and sinkers made a big change to the quality of contact against Harrison. While his whiff rates weren't as strong, he was getting more chases and just a .280 xwOBACON (a statistic measuring the likely damage on contact), which would be an elite mark over a larger sample. The changeup is particularly notable. After joining the Red Sox, Harrison changed his grip from a one-seam orientation into a kick-change, something the Brewers haven't seen much of within their player development system. This version usually creates more depth, but also more inconsistent movement, making it difficult to command at times. When it's right, the kick-change will produce negative induced vertical break numbers (IVB) with ease, and in Triple A, Harrison's approached -10 inches of IVB on occasion, with an overall three inches of extra drop on average. The San Francisco Quandary The Giants have recently had a number of high-profile, talented arms pass through their system with enormous hype, but have trouble translating that onto the big-league mound. Despite an elite defensive catcher in Patrick Bailey and a pitcher's park, it hasn't come together. Perhaps it's time to question their development processes. One additional change Harrison made after going to the Red Sox lay in how he used his slurve. The Giants were adamantly and rigidly calling it to one side of the plate, down and away from lefties and toward the back foot of righties., The Red Sox encouraged him to open up both sides of the plate to complement his enhanced arsenal. The goal here was to elicit more confusion in the hitter's eye as to what pitch was coming his way, and the deception worked. He learned to land the pitch for strikes and backdoor it, as well as being able to bury it near the right-handed batter's box. Harrison located the slurve in the zone more often, got more chase, and still maintained a higher quality of contact against the pitch than he managed with San Francisco in the first half of the year. He's never likely to be a strikeout artist in the majors, but his strong movement, funky delivery, and a wider pitch mix can make him a true all-around pitcher. The majority of Harrison's Triple-A games came for the Red Sox, and they paint a picture of what he might look like at his best: Harrison does have some walk issues. As with Priester, there might be a mechanical tweak in mind to clean up his delivery, but with his ability to garner chase, limit hard contact and miss bats both in and out of the strike zone, there is a lot to like about Kyle Harrison—especially in an organization like the Milwaukee Brewers.
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Are You Ready to Dream on Garrett Mitchell One More Time?
Jake McKibbin posted an article in Brewers
Garrett Mitchell is the epitome of a tantalising baseball player. With incredible athleticism, a feel for the big moments, and raw power to all fields, there is very little he couldn't achieve on the baseball field. To answer some under-the-hood concerns with his swing path (centered around conquering the high fastball), Mitchell made some changes in the 2024-25 offseason, with the goal of a more rounded, consistent profile and the ability to make better contact across the strike zone. I covered some of the changes he needed to make here in November 2024—soon after which we saw a video of Mitchell from Driveline. There, he worked on creating a flatter plane to the ball, staying tight and working behind the ball. It seems he didn't lose any of his pop in doing so: How Did He Handle The High Fastball In 2025? It's important to remember this is a very small sample—just a month's at-bats—but there were some notable changes in his whiff rates from 2024 compared to the 2025 season, especially in the upper third of the strike zone: Let's restrict our focus to four-seam fastballs only, and include just the middle and upper portions of the strike zone, to see how Mitchell fared. Again, this is a small sample due to Mitchell's season-derailing injuries, but the changes are significant. Mitchell's quality and quantity of contact against four-seam fastballs soared in this small sample of 25 qualified offerings, with an improved attack angle in his swing bearing proof of a changing process. His exit velocities were up, his whiff rates were way down, and his expected batting average and slugging metrics showcased his output well. If we limit this sample to just the top of the strike zone (again, an even smaller size), Mitchell's whiff rate dropped from 48% to 33%, with an average exit velocity of 95.0 mph. If we include sinkers and cutters in these locations to increase the sample size, the same story repeats itself: Mitchell is whiffing less and finding better launch angles, thanks to improved attack angles in his swing. With Mitchell's keen eye at the plate, he doesn't need to do damage on pitches in the upper third of the zone; he just needs to be able to make contact and stay in an at-bat. He made real strides here in 2025, and it should hold him in good stead for 2026, if he can maintain that new swing path after another shoulder surgery last summer. The Timing Trade-Off This was a large change to Mitchell's swing—the type of change that's been the downfall of many others with swing-and-miss concerns (see: Joey Wiemer). While working in cages and at Driveline was beneficial to bed in his adjusted swing path, it's likely that his focus on breaking and off-speed pitches took a back seat. Mitchell was still adjusting to his timing on non-fastballs as spring training rolled around and continued in season, which reduced some of the damage we've become accustomed to. While Mitchell did struggle with high fastballs in 2024, you threw breaking pitches inside the strike zone at your peril. Thankfully, nobody warned Phil Maton about that: Interestingly, this is where Mitchell took a step back. With the majority of his off-season work centered around the high fastball, Mitchell struggled to time up anything off-speed. Only three of his 13 batted balls against breaking pitches inside the strike zone had a launch angle between 0° and 30°, and not one was between 5° and 25°. He was late getting to pitches, but this appears more of a timing issue than a mechanical one. His attack angle was largely similar to his production in 2024, and his hard-hit rate was still quite productive; he just wasn't catching these offerings out in front of him with the same regularity. Mitchell's timing should have improved with playing time, a boon painfully removed from his 2025 season in May, but all the indicators are there for Mitchell, if he can just stay on the field, to break out in a big way during 2026. His bat speed was higher. He was making contact with high fastballs, and punishing those that missed over the heart of the plate. We saw those under-the-hood developments from Mitchell that we've been itching for, even though the surface results didn't quite match up to those indices. If he can stay on the field, Mitchell's ceiling is still as high as anyone on this team. -
Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images Garrett Mitchell is the epitome of a tantalising baseball player. With incredible athleticism, a feel for the big moments, and raw power to all fields, there is very little he couldn't achieve on the baseball field. To answer some under-the-hood concerns with his swing path (centered around conquering the high fastball), Mitchell made some changes in the 2024-25 offseason, with the goal of a more rounded, consistent profile and the ability to make better contact across the strike zone. I covered some of the changes he needed to make here in November 2024—soon after which we saw a video of Mitchell from Driveline. There, he worked on creating a flatter plane to the ball, staying tight and working behind the ball. It seems he didn't lose any of his pop in doing so: How Did He Handle The High Fastball In 2025? It's important to remember this is a very small sample—just a month's at-bats—but there were some notable changes in his whiff rates from 2024 compared to the 2025 season, especially in the upper third of the strike zone: Let's restrict our focus to four-seam fastballs only, and include just the middle and upper portions of the strike zone, to see how Mitchell fared. Again, this is a small sample due to Mitchell's season-derailing injuries, but the changes are significant. Mitchell's quality and quantity of contact against four-seam fastballs soared in this small sample of 25 qualified offerings, with an improved attack angle in his swing bearing proof of a changing process. His exit velocities were up, his whiff rates were way down, and his expected batting average and slugging metrics showcased his output well. If we limit this sample to just the top of the strike zone (again, an even smaller size), Mitchell's whiff rate dropped from 48% to 33%, with an average exit velocity of 95.0 mph. If we include sinkers and cutters in these locations to increase the sample size, the same story repeats itself: Mitchell is whiffing less and finding better launch angles, thanks to improved attack angles in his swing. With Mitchell's keen eye at the plate, he doesn't need to do damage on pitches in the upper third of the zone; he just needs to be able to make contact and stay in an at-bat. He made real strides here in 2025, and it should hold him in good stead for 2026, if he can maintain that new swing path after another shoulder surgery last summer. The Timing Trade-Off This was a large change to Mitchell's swing—the type of change that's been the downfall of many others with swing-and-miss concerns (see: Joey Wiemer). While working in cages and at Driveline was beneficial to bed in his adjusted swing path, it's likely that his focus on breaking and off-speed pitches took a back seat. Mitchell was still adjusting to his timing on non-fastballs as spring training rolled around and continued in season, which reduced some of the damage we've become accustomed to. While Mitchell did struggle with high fastballs in 2024, you threw breaking pitches inside the strike zone at your peril. Thankfully, nobody warned Phil Maton about that: Interestingly, this is where Mitchell took a step back. With the majority of his off-season work centered around the high fastball, Mitchell struggled to time up anything off-speed. Only three of his 13 batted balls against breaking pitches inside the strike zone had a launch angle between 0° and 30°, and not one was between 5° and 25°. He was late getting to pitches, but this appears more of a timing issue than a mechanical one. His attack angle was largely similar to his production in 2024, and his hard-hit rate was still quite productive; he just wasn't catching these offerings out in front of him with the same regularity. Mitchell's timing should have improved with playing time, a boon painfully removed from his 2025 season in May, but all the indicators are there for Mitchell, if he can just stay on the field, to break out in a big way during 2026. His bat speed was higher. He was making contact with high fastballs, and punishing those that missed over the heart of the plate. We saw those under-the-hood developments from Mitchell that we've been itching for, even though the surface results didn't quite match up to those indices. If he can stay on the field, Mitchell's ceiling is still as high as anyone on this team. View full article

