Jake McKibbin

Looking at what the Angels have done, it very possibly could. Confidence is a huge thing at the big league level and a horrible start (which both are likely for and unprepared to face that level of competition) would likely set them back even from 2026 in reaching their peak performance. Barring a hot 6 weeks, it's tough to argue with this. I kind of feel the same, I'd rather it be a competitive year but there's not that much on the market and we can see the next wave coming through

One thing to potentially watch for from Jesus Made is he hasn't been getting the bat off his shoulder an awful lot. He's not Luke Adams, but he hasn't been aggressive either and It's trending downwards of late towards that Adams/Wilken level

He actually may have gotten some playing time in the outfield as things stand, but unfortunately the broken hamate bone has kept him on the IL for a while to begin the season. He might be back in Triple A over the next couple of weeks all being well, but obviously isn;t in the conversation until then. He probably also needs to show a higher ceiling for offensive output in a team full of dinkers and dribblers when he returns, and being left handed when Yelich, Frelick and Chourio are the incumbent starters isn't ideal. That's the very short form version at least Sal Frelick currently grades as the 7th worst outfielder in baseball per defensive runs saved. Using savant metrics, which have him more on a level pegging: It seems like the initial jump hasn't been great with slow reactions compared to 2024. Likely to even out somewhat, but I don't think he's been as sharp to being this year either defensively

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images The Milwaukee Brewers have a problem on the left side of their infield. It was an area of major concern coming into the season, where the front office hoped for a solid season from Joey Ortiz and passable offensive production from Oliver Dunn and Caleb Durbin to manage this season. That hasn't played out so far, with the Brewers placing dead last at a 26 WRC+ from third base, and 29th out of 30 teams with a 31 WRC+ at shortstop. Having two such black holes at the back of a lineup (that isn't blowing off the roof at the top, either) creates myriad offensive problems. It's beginning to look like the Brewers need some external help, if they want to compete in 2025. Internally, the next cab off the rank at Triple A is likely to be Bobby Dalbec, and while he has some thump, he hasn't been able to hit enough at the big-league level to make that count, with a slash line of .199/.272/.328 in 520 plate appearances since the start of 2022. The problem the Brewers have (perhaps it's just a "problem," really, but it's a thing) is that from Double-A Biloxi on down, the talent occupying the left side of the infield is tantalizing. Brock Wilken has rediscovered his form early this season, increasing his swing rate as the season has progressed and slashing .382/.476/.912 in May, with five home runs and a 23.8% strikeout rate. Note: all of this is occurring in one of the toughest offensive environments in pro baseball, the Southern League. Wilken's defensive action and range have improved markedly since entering the Brewers system, and after a lost season in 2024, he seems to be regaining some of his first-round draft pedigree. Pairing solid defense with on-base skills and some heavy raw thump would be a sight for sore eyes on this Brewers team. Even more highly coveted is shortstop Cooper Pratt. Defensively superb at shortstop, Pratt is just 20 years old and sporting a 13.4% strikeout rate to a 9% walk rate in Double A. A very young player for the level, Pratt hasn't shown the same thump as Wilken, but has considerable polish at the plate. He's demonstrated good swing decisions and an ability to get into his pull side for some power. Sporting a 109 WRC+, Pratt was recently rated as high at Baseball America's No. 28 prospect in all of baseball, with the chance of more power still to come from the 2023 draftee. The timeline for Wilken and Pratt is likely to be 2026, with both expected to reach Triple A at some point this season. It's possible Wilken could go on a tear and force his way into conversations by September, but 2026 seems a more realistic timeline for both. The real chance that at least one of these two, or possibly both, could be there next Opening Day leaves the Brewers in somewhat of a bind, especially when you consider that Mike Boeve and Luke Adams may also be at the highest level of the minors by that point. When you think of the emergency Willy Adames trade made in 2021, the Brewers didn't make a splash on a one-year rental. Mark Attanasio and Matt Arnold have both talked about the need to balance winning now and winning in the future, with an even priority between them. It's the same situation as the Quinn Priester trade, where the Brewers saw something they could mold and benefit from over a number of years. They don't make big trades for one-year rentals. If the Brewers are as high on Pratt as the rest of the league, while Wilken continues to flourish, they mightn't feel the need to upgrade significantly on the left side of their infield. They'll hope for some bounce-back from Joey Ortiz, who just shouldn't be producing at his current level with the sheer talent he possesses; and that one of their two infield talents can break with the team next season. The cost of acquiring another shortstop blocked or squeezed on their current depth chart—such as a Jordan Lawlar, Marcelo Mayer or Alex Freeland—would be extortionate. Instead, to make full use of the farm system coming through with Wilken and Pratt in 2026 (accompanied by a wave of talent, in Josh Adamczewski, Eric Bitonti, Jésus Made and Luis Peña the following year). the Brewers might deploy their resources elsewhere this trade deadline. In an ideal world, Brock Wilken would be at Triple A already, having never suffered a fractured orbital bone in his face and without the accompanying eyesight issues that followed. He would be closing in on a promotion, and the wave of talent behind would flow seamlessly in tow. Alas, that's not how it's panned out, and the question becomes whether the Brewers are tempted to throw some chips into this 2025 season, or if their poor start and general malaise have left the front office reluctant to spend on a rental bat that may have little-to-no impact on their overall ability to even reach the playoffs. Instead, Durbin (who looks more like a utility player than an everyday starter) is garnering a lot of reps at the hot corner, while Ortiz is working his way through timing issues with a shortened leg kick. For the production provided, both are being given a lot of leeway simply because there isn't anyone better to fill those roles. With a loaded farm system, the timeline for the Brewers has reached an awkward point. Consistently intent on competing year in and year out for the playoffs, their third base and shortstop positions have left much to be desired. Reinforcements are coming, but not rapidly enough to assist in 2025. How should the Brewers address the situation? let us know your thoughts in the comments below! View full article

Image courtesy of © Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images Right now, the Brewers could really use an arm like Shane Smith's. The Rule 5 Draft pick is dominating for the Chicago White Sox. His fastball was at the heart of the Crew's decision to leave him unprotected last fall, with its lack of "rise" culminating in a pitch many considered to be "dead-zone". It turns out that may not be the case, and the pitch shape is markedly different from what we expected. Rolling back to November 2024, the Brewers' 40-man roster had several arms that were just barely clinging onto their spots. Tyler Jay was perhaps in the most perilous position, as seen when he was later designated for assignment, while they left a 40-man spot open and eventually spent it on Connor Thomas, their own Rule 5 Draft selection. They also added Logan Henderson and Chad Patrick, two decisions that have proved astute—but they left Smith open to pilfering. Smith had only begun to stretch out as a starter in 2024, after some dominant relief outings in 2023. With injury woes to begin his professional career, the Brewers didn't have a lot of in-game action for Smith as an undrafted free agent signing out of Wake Forest in 2021. His mid-90s fastball was blowing past hitters, while his curveball was a wipeout offering. There was a suspicion that while Smith was performing well with Double-A Biloxi, perhaps the strangled offensive environment of the Southern League was prettying up his results—and that the fastball would get hit hard when he moved up levels. This was, after all, his first season stretching out with the Brewers. In fact, at Double A, many teams would have been wary of Smith's lack of track record and (at least on the surface) the absence of a strong primary offering. Perhaps the transfer of one Walker McKinven to the White Sox assisted them in this; perhaps they saw the mechanics that would allow them to develop the kick changeup that has been so pivotal to his success in the big leagues so far. Either way, the White Sox took him first in the Rule 5 and haven't looked back. Let's look below at just how well Smith's pitches have played (Including the fastball): As I alluded to, Smith's fastball was considered an offering that would struggle as he moved up the ranks. That hasn't quite proven to be the case. Although it has been squared up at times, the damage has been well contained. Sporting a 2.08 ERA and 3.05 FIP across 38 1/3 innings with 1.5 WAR early this season, Smith has been an unmitigated success for the White Sox, while the Brewers were forced to splurge on Quinn Priester, at the cost of some of their outfield depth in the farm system and their 33rd pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. We have a tendency with four-seam fastballs to look at the vertical profile of the pitch, and to ignore or downplay the horizontal break. It's in the latter dimension where Smith differentiates himself. His fastball cuts glove-side more than you would expect, which has been key in avoiding barrels in 2025: Let me explain the graph above a little. Jeremy Maschino of PitchProfiler.com has created a model that shows the expected movement profile of an arsenal (the shaded zones), compared to its actual movement (the clear circles) to assess how that movement deviates from expectation based on arm angle, release point, spin, etc., and if that has an impact on deceiving hitters. Smith has a slightly lower three-quarters arm slot at 34°, meaning that he's expected to generate more run than ride on his fastball naturally. While the ride is as expected, Smith's fastball actually doesn't break horizontally as much as expected, therefore staying in on the hands of lefties and just keeping off the barrel of the bat. It's more of a cut-ride fastball, in the mold of the Cubs' development with the likes of Justin Steele and Cade Horton. That shape is even more unusual, based on the arm angle. You can also see the rise he gets on his sweeper, as well as the increased drop on both his curveball and kick-change. That creates an interesting profile, wherein he can stay both above or below bats, compared to the expected movement. The key question was always whether the fastball could play in the major leagues, and it seems (thus far) that it can. It's not an elite offering, but it can survive and allow the rest of his arsenal to thrive in tandem with it. The other reason for his success is the supreme command Smith has of his primary offering. His location grade (again per the diagram from Pitch Profiler) is above average, and his overall mix accompanying that fastball has given it a proPitching+ grade of 107, where 100 is average. Despite not having the best movement profile on his fastball, the combination of his location and the full arsenal he has makes it a strong offering: The other factor the Brewers appear to have overlooked is the bulldog in Smith. He was an undrafted free agent recovering from Tommy John surgery when they brought him aboard. He went from a reliever to starting games for the Brewers in 2024 with aplomb. He had shown adaptability and success at every stage for the Brewers, despite some of the queries over his stuff. It seems the Brewers underestimated the extent and transferability of that resilience. The Brewers may have hoped that Smith went under the radar, given his limited time in a starting role and concern over his injury history, as well as some misjudgment over his fastball shape. It's unlikely they themselves missed this, but perhaps they hoped other organizations would. However their logic was formed, the results are currently speaking for themselves. It's becoming clearer with each start that the Brewers made a mistake with Smith. It may have cost them dearly in prospect capital, with John Holobetz added to Yophery Rodriguez and the No. 33 pick in the 2025 MLB Draft. Pitching depth has already been a minor problem for them this year, and if Smith continues pitching like this, the Brewers will rue the choice to spend a roster spot on Jay and/or Thomas instead of him for years to come. View full article

Really like how you've broken this down! Two fascinating things stand out. First of all, Wilken is both incredibly passive before two strikes with just a 32.2% swing rate, an a high whiff rate in those counts, swinging and missing almost a third of the time. He also seems to be very comfortable backing his two strike approach, cutting down the swing and miss to an 81.5% contact rate overall even with the increased swing rate

Image courtesy of © Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images The Milwaukee Brewers' attendance figures have consistently been strong, ranking in the top half of baseball of occupancy rates in 2024 (13th, 75%) despite playing in the smallest market in the majors. The fanbase has maintained a strong connection to their club, heightened particularly in 2018 and 2019—wherein attendance surpassed 35,000 and 36,000 per game, respectively. The fans adored the offensive barrage produced by the likes of Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, Yasmani Grandal, and Lorenzo Cain, but most important was the appearance of a superstar: Christian Yelich. Yelich was undoubtedly the best player in the National League during that two-year stretch. I remember my first time visiting Milwaukee in 2019, seeing every other kid with a pinstriped 22 jersey on his back. Between Yelich And Giannis Antetokounmpo, the sports scene in Milwaukee was buzzing. The pandemic certainly had an impact on sporting numbers across the board, particularly in 2021. The Brewers rebounded somewhat in 2022-24, averaging a little under 31,000 per game in that time period. Competitive baseball was still front and center in Milwaukee, but they missed the offensive buzz and perhaps the superstar performances of Yelich in his prime. It was an era predicated on dominant pitching from the trio of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta, alongside a shutdown relief corps led by Josh Hader and Devin Williams. As electric as the pitching was, fans perhaps craved the offensive firepower from the turn of the decade, and resented the tightening of purses that inevitably happened post-pandemic. This season has started alarmingly. Average attendance across 19 games so far this season has dipped to 26,517. That's a big loss, of almost 5,000 fans per game. For a team that operates in such a small market, gate receipts are a pivotal source of funds for the Brewers. Let's put that in the context of some financial outcomes. The average ticket is roughly $45, meaning the loss of ~5,000 seats per game over 81 games comes to over $18 million in possible lost revenue. That doesn't include the concessions purchased in the stadium, on which the Brewers would have a tidy markup as well, nor the effect this can have on all sorts of negotiations regarding advertising and stadium rights that occur in the future. Lower visibility equals lower revenue. The Brewers already operate with a tight payroll. To take what is possibly close to $20 million off of it would leave them close to the $90-million range (like the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Tampa Bay Rays), rather than the $115-million range with the Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds. It would be akin to taking Rhys Hoskins out of this lineup and replacing him internally on a pre-arbitration contract. That's not to say they can't replace things internally, but the Brewers can ill afford to lose their available funds of money to acquire free agents in their competitive windows. Above are the top 12 teams for lost attendance thus far in 2025. The Brewers rank 8th in average attendance per game lost, as well as the change in occupation rate (taking into account the overall size of the stadium). However, they actually rank, in terms of average attendance, exactly where they did in 2024. The company of those who have lost such high levels of fans is an ignominious one. Being associated with teams whose fanbases feel kicked in the teeth at the lack of investment they've had—such as the Minnesota Twins, St. Louis Cardinals (who have confessed to a rebuild year), Seattle Mariners, Colorado Rockies, Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates and the Baltimore Orioles. The Tampa Bay Rays can be excused, as they've been hamstrung by a smaller stadium. Most of these teams' fanbases feel they have the ability to compete for the playoffs, but haven't had the investment and backing to make that final leap. The one who stands out is the Cleveland Guardians, who currently sit 20-14 in the AL Central and have tons of exciting players, from Emmanuel Clase, José Ramírez, Kyle Manzardo, and Steven Kwan to newer faces like Daniel Schneeman and late-blooming breakouts like Gabriel Arias. Yet, their success is predicated upon the strength of their bullpen, with starting pitching not going deep into games and no one really taking the league by storm offensively. They do have a disconnection with their ownership group, the Dolans being quite unpopular due to continual underinvestment in their franchise. They have opportunities to invest more on occasion and have rarely done so, leading to levels of apathy that far exceed what even the most fervent group of Mark Attanasio dissenters would conjure up. The Guardians are very similar to the Brewers' template, winning around the margins while bigger markets hunt the bigger, sexier fish in the pond. The truth is, winning games the ugly way by bunting, scrapping, fighting out infield singles and with limited home run output isn't sexy. It doesn't get fans out of their seats, until the latter innings of a tight game. Most of all, it's having an impact on attendance. This could be counteracted by a few things. First of all, Yelich can still hit dingers, although he is trying to rediscover consistent timing in his swing. Jackson Chourio, if he could learn to work his at-bats and be a more consistent threat to both get on base and force pitchers into his damage zones, could lift off. Several times in 2024, William Contreras went berserk for a month or more. These three hitters could ignite a fire in the Brewers' fandom if they can click, and marry that performance with wins. Winning baseball is truly the best way to bring fans to the stadium. It isn't the be-all and end-all, but it has a big impact, and the 2025 Brewers haven't been winning games as the fans have come to expect. One other potentially important factor is the weather in April. Far less of a factor in the LA teams, but certainly prevalent on the Northern border, cold temperatures, high winds and heavy rain are not the type of weather that encourages a fan to want to hang out at a baseball game, roof or no. The summer is key for the Brewers in this regard, and as an example, this is hitting the Chicago Cubs, too. Having the most explosive offense to date, bolstered by the signing of Kyle Tucker and Carson Kelly (alongside the breakout of the blue-haired freak, in Pete Crow-Armstrong), you would anticipate attendance to be on the rise for the Cubs early in April. They have a 22-14 record and are averaging over six runs per game. In fact, Wrigley Field has seen attendance slightly drop from its average numbers in 2025. They don't have a roof, and are completely exposed to the cold weather, which makes any rebound in the summer likely to be larger than that of the Brewers in American Family Field. They're also less than 1,000 per game down from their 2024 levels, a stark difference from the Brewers. You'll also note a northern theme in those cities with the biggest attendance drop vs. their full-season average of 2024. Toronto, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Seattle, Minnesota, Baltimore, Pittsburgh: These are not cities that are known for their glorious April weather. If the Brewers want to maximise their connection with the fans, and bring a greater atmosphere to the ballpark with the hordes, they're going to require something to put some spark into the team. There are several ways this may happen: An offensive outpouring from the heart of their lineup A big trade to sort the left side of their infield Young, high-ceiling talent from their farm system Some warm weather as we come into the summer Fans crave fresh. They crave new. They crave exciting. They crave success. And they adore a nice summer's day. The Brewers have lacked all five early on in 2025, and Mark Attanasio will be well aware of the financial repercussions should this continue. View full article

Aaron Civale was scheduled to make this start in rehab, Henderson may come in for the long innings afterwards, but time will tell!

That sweeper could add so much to his arsenal. If Woodruff ever rediscovers his old velocity with the sweeper and cutter, it may be one of the most complete, deadly arsenals in all of baseball

Thumb injury sliding I believe! He should be back in the next couple of days per @Joseph Zarr

Made's hit on that up and in fastball at 1:23 was impressive. Lightning quick hands Letson's slider looks vicious as well

I'm not saying either will be stars, but both are showing passable-solid defensive skills with the ability to run into a ball and crush it. They should be apt replacements for an ailing Contreras, If compared to fully healthy William, absolutely. Yet this version is a shadow of that and maximising the quality over quantity when you have able deputies should be the priority. The most damning thing is that Murphy wouldn't put him on the IL because Contreras wouldn't allow it Some players need to have it forced upon them to rest

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images William Contreras and his tough approach to baseball have long been a point of pride for Pat Murphy. That goes back to last season, when Contreras started each of the Brewers' first 58 games alongside Willy Adames, 47 of which came at the catcher position. Despite the wear and tear from the position and some drop off toward the end of that stretch in his production at the plate, Contreras refused to take a day off. On June 2 last year, Murphy left both Adames and Contreras out of his Sunday lineup to give both a breather. They didn't take it well: Murphy may have a fondness for the tough, old-school approach demonstrated by Contreras in this situation, but allowing him to dictate when he does or doesn't play despite the recent results (which had tapered off from his dazzling start to an overall .218 batting average and .287 slugging rate in June) was an error. After the All-Star break, the Brewers made more of an effort to force Contreras to take days off, and it worked to an extent—although he flagged again down the stretch in September. We can't say for sure if this was workload-related, but it does look that way. He also jammed his finger several times during that stretch, something that could have been the cause of his current fracture. How To Treat A Broken Finger A quite painful injury, a broken finger impacts more from the sheer pain of certain movements than the mobility of the finger itself, as the other fingers can pick up the slack. The problem Contreras is facing is that one of those movements is swinging the bat. It's hard not to imagine that catching 101 mph sinkers from Abner Uribe is also painful if he catches the wrong spot, meaning the finger isn't getting the rest required to heal itself. Broken fingers can be healed by either a splint (to minimize the movement of the digit) or surgery, depending on the severity. The Brewers have indicated a desire to create a glove that allows Contreras to catch with his finger in a splint. That, however, won't assist him at the plate. A splint on his middle finger would prevent him from holding the bat properly, so the act giving Contreras the most pain is still going to occur over and over again. To heal properly, the finger needs to have minimized movement and stability in the joint. Complications can arise otherwise, and the healing process will be significantly delayed. The process usually takes six to eight weeks for recovery. So Why Isn't William Contreras On The Injured List? At his best, healthy and unencumbered, Contreras is an MVP candidate. He's shown explosive power, strong bat-to-ball skills and above-average defensive work at catcher. The version the Brewers have now, a .700 OPS player who struggles to impact the baseball while providing that defense, is a solid addition, but it's also a player they could afford to replace with the combination of big-league veterans Eric Haase and Jorge Alfaro, both of whom have shown an ability to crush baseballs this season. Haase's game-calling has drawn strong praise behind the plate as well, as a solid framer at the top of the strike zone. Contreras should be on the IL with the intention of coming back stronger and ready to make a real impact at the back end of the season. The only reason he isn't was made clear by Pat Murphy: Contreras won't "allow" himself to go on the IL. Even if Murphy thought it better for him and the team, perhaps, Contreras wouldn't allow it. Instead, the Brewers have to hope an injection for the pain makes the problem go away, as any sort of splint can't hold his finger rigid in the batter's box. It's incredibly brave of Contreras to fight through the pain he is in, but the Brewers have enough depth at catcher that they don't need him to. They can afford for him to get back to full health without endangering himself. Pat Murphy needs to stand up to William Contreras. At the end of the day, it's not Contreras's decision to make as to whether he should be on the IL. It would be better for the Brewers in the second half, and better for Contreras's long-term future (with a risk that the finger, if not treated quickly and protected in the meantime, doesn't repair correctly). View full article

That seems very impressive all things considered

No clue, he had a 21 pitch first inning and 18 pitch second. Slightly concerning

Payne on the other hand seems to be working through some breaking ball issues. three straight swinging strikes at outer edge sweepers Not uncommon given his age, just a note

Pena looks so comfortable in the box. Quick 0-2 before lacing a ball just foul down the left field line. A few foul balls later and he just squares one up to right centre for a single Made has more pop in his bat, but Pena does look completely unflustered by Low A. Wouldn't be surprised if he got promoted first at all And yet another SB to follow For those who haven' listened to the just baseball podcast, you should! But Pena now has 11 balls in 14 games hit over 105 mph, after hitting only one in 2024

And he's got it back, he's pounding the zone with his four-seam now, a quick 0-2 before Dinges fires a dart to second base, perfect throw just a little late to miss the SB. Worked back to 3-2 before he gets him swinging with the high cheese

Meccage's fastball command looks a little of early on, leaving it a little all over the place. A weak lineout to Made at shortstop followed by a walk. Dinges is looking smooth in trying to frame some sliders on the glove side however, and a 2-0 count is recovered to 2-2 before putting away the No. 3 hitter on a sharp slider