strawbossisevil

If West gets the call right at 1B, we have a tie game. #umpire rant

Quade complaining again. This time in a game against the Dodgers. It is time to throw out this stupid unwritten rule book. http://sports.yahoo.com/m...ug=ap-dodgers-missedsign

I agree on Gamel. We'd have him at league minimum. He probably wouldn't be able to replace Prince with the bat (few could), but I expect Gamel to be far superior with the glove. The difference between Gamel and Fielder and Greinke and Rogers/Rivas definitely favors giving the money to Greinke. With Weeks, Braun, Gamel, Hart, Lucroy, McGehee all on board for the next three + years. I think our priority needs to be pitching and defense for filling out the rest of the roster. Bring in a stud defensive SS and let Plush/Gomez fill the CF role.

Link Doesn't sound like either Weeks or Roenicke thought it was all that serious last night. I think this thread is overreacting just a bit.

Sympathy strike call there...too bad for Gomez, his approach tonight was excellent at the plate.

200 calls, 600 texts....wow.

Well, Carlos...I guess that makes up for the earlier baserunning mistake.

Fangraphs gives the Astros a 2% chance of winning. The fat lady may not have sung yet...but she's certainly warming up the voice.

Looked like he jammed his finger.

I can't believe Sedar didn't send Weeks. Weeks is fast enough that he should have scored on that one. That said, dumb play by Gomez, you have to be aware. McGehee makes up for it...thankfully.

Was that Greinke in the dugout? Isn't he supposed to be in Nashville? Did I miss something?

I'd be a bigger fan of an NFL type system. Divide the divisions up into four groups of four teams (with the addition of two expansion teams in the AL). Then have the top two teams get a first round bye. It would make having the best records actually worth something, as you would be one step away from the World Series. Plus it would allow for longer series, instead of requiring the addition of an additional round, as Selig is proposing right now. As far as where the new teams should be located, I would suggest Brooklyn and Las Vegas.

Isn't that what Pujols wants also? If Pujols somehow gets that, I don't see Fielder equally it. However, if Prince keeps up his huge year, I could see someone coming close to that.Pujols wants 10 years 300 million. Last I heard.

Not exactly, because each look at what happens in the field in a unique way, one focuses more heavily on range, another focuses more on ball trajectory and speed, etc.. If Betancourt's results were below average to this point, one of those four "objective" measurements should have caught it. That none of them did, should tell you something. Look, I get it. Many here came into the season talking up how horrible he truly is at the position (and he has been) and thus won't be convinced that he has put up fairly average results for a MLB SS over the first tenth of the season. I realize that no statistic would be convincing for any of you, as the statistics don't measure up with what you believe your eyes told you. No one is going to be convinced at this point, so I'm willing to let it drop if all of you are.

This is only because of randomness, there is no direct reason for these defensive stats to show this other than randomness. IT IS NOT BECAUSE YUNI HAS IMPROVED ON DEFENSE.To be fair, he's not saying the stats suggest Yuni has actually improved. He's only claiming that the stats show his defensive performance has been better than average. I am arguing that the HUGE uncertainty in the estimate suggests that it tells us nothing. T o make up numbers, if the estimate is +2 runs, one standard deviation might be 10 runs. So we could say that we are 68% sure that Yuni's defensive has been worth between +12 and -8 runs to the Brewers so far this year. We are 95% sure that Yuni's defense has been worth between +22 and -18 runs. In addition, you haven't factored in the fact that four independent systems of establishing defensive value (all intently trying to be the best objective measure of defense) came up with very similar results (ranging from -.4 through +3 runs saved). It is kind of like in politics, one poll may not tell us much. But when four separate polls say essentially the same thing that can certainly be an indicator that the results are fairly accurate. Same here with the four systems of defensive value essentially agreeing that Betancourt's results have been league average to this point. If it were just one system, yes, the results would be fairly dubious. Four independent systems make it far less dubious.

This is only because of randomness, there is no direct reason for these defensive stats to show this other than randomness. IT IS NOT BECAUSE YUNI HAS IMPROVED ON DEFENSE.What it probably means is he's had a few games where he's played better than what is typical for him. That's all. He may not be technically improved, nor likely to continue putting up better than typical results. The point is, though, that despite his results being better than expected, that hasn't stopped people complaining ABOUT HIS RESULTS. His results haven't been the problem to this point, the problem is that his approach is likely going to lead to poor results in the future. His results have not negatively impacted our team to this point, call it randomness, call it luck, call it a few better than normal weeks. However you want to call it, he's done it.

I am focusing on results here, I'm not necessarily "results oriented" - especially when using stats to project how a player will do in the future. Results tell us what happened, they don't necessarily say "how" they happened. A person can play technically poor and still put up good stats. Despite the poor technical play the good results still, in the end, benefit his team over that period in which he put up the good stats. In the same way, a technically sound player might put up bad stats. He may have done everything right but his results negatively impacted his team over that stretch. It speaks nothing to the future, only how his results have impacted his team. If you are going to project a player's future results, yes, the results don't really matter. However if you are trying to evaluate how the player's results have effected (past tense) his team, then results are valuable. This is what I was pointing out about Betancourt, while his approach may not be one that will result in a positive defensive stats over the season, his results have (past tense) not been a huge negative for the Brewers to this point. Point being his results have not been as poor as many on here have suggested they have been. That could definitely change in the future, and I think it will.

It is kind of like the ERA debate. Many deride ERA, and when you are trying to predict how a pitcher will do in the future, it isn't all that worthwhile or predicative. But ERA does one thing, it shows the results of how many earned runs actually crossed the plate while that pitcher was pitching. A player can pitch poorly, theoretically, and still have a great ERA because the batters have a few bad outings at the plate. That said, if a bad pitcher has an ERA under 4 during that bad stretch, you can't take that away from him, as those were the actual results of his pitching. It isn't at all indicative of what he will do, as more often than not he will get hit around if he pitches that poorly. But that doesn't matter when looking at the results. This happened, whether he lucked into it or not, it happened. And say, such a pitcher was expected to have an ERA of 5+. If he has an ERA under 4, his results have been better than expected for that stretch and the team is better off for those better results. So, in reality, they do mean something. They aren't predictive, they don't necessarily tell the whole story. But they do reflect that the value such a player has had to his team (and their chance to win) over that time period, even if it was based on nothing but luck. My point in this thread is to say, whether lucky or not, Betancourt's defensive statistics have been better than we could have hoped to this point. That says nothing about his talent or his luck, or what can be expected. It is merely saying that for the first tenth of a season his defense hasn't been a huge detriment to the team's chances of winning.

They may not be perfect, but if you want to be objective, there is no better way of assessing how the player has done. If (per your example) a player hits a bunch of balls right at a defender and therefore has a low batting average, his batting average will suggest he had a rough stretch (which he did in reality). That batting average won't be predictive, because if a person is hitting the ball right at defenders his hits will likely fall eventually giving him a better batting average. The stats aren't necessarily descriptive of talent and ability, but they show the results the player has accomplished. Therefore they tell us what happened (the actual results of a players play) just fine, but they fail to measure what can be expected in the future. Monty57 is exactly right. So many get so sucked into the predictive nature of statistics that they forget that the statistics are actually measuring very real events that happened. In this thread, I was soley focused on the "results", and not whether those results are predictive for the future.

It's more objective but not necessarily better. And you are combining several defensive systems that use the same or similar data to come up with their metrics. I don't think that decreases the uncertainty at all. That's like saying that a batter's OPS, WAR and wOBP are all good after a week, so perhaps a week of data is good enough. This is all very simple. It's April 19th. Whatever has happened so far this season tells us very little, whether it be stats or scouting. Yuni has been in the league for awhile now, so there is plenty of data to look at to formulate an informed opinion with regard to his abilities.Right, there is no doubt that ability wise, he is likely going to finish below average. That is not what I, or anyone else making this argument, have been asserting. We are merely stating that based on the objective data compiled by four different statistical models (all who seek to be the best objective measures of defense). Based on that, we can say that Yuni had a few good weeks, nothing more, nothing less. The only reason I even make that point is to show that many have been over-critical in regard to his performance to this point in the season. My goal isn't to try to extrapolate what we can expect of him going forward, or to show his "real ability". If I want to figure those things out, I agree that it is best to look at the career statistics. I see this as the equivalent of saying, "Plush has really started off the season hitting better than I expected." I'm not suggesting that what we've seen from Plush reflects his actual ability, nor that what he's done in the opening weeks of the season can be expected to be continued throughout the season.

I do understand the concept of statistical noise. That is why I am not sticking to one defensive statistic to support my argument. I can add to the "Fielder's Bible" defensive evaluation to the list of defensive statistics that suggest he has been about average defensively to this point. (Fielder's Bible has him at +2). I guess, even with the statistical noise, when the top four statistical models are all in agreement about Yuni's defense (statistics ranging from -.4 to +3), I find those statistics (when put together) to be a more objective impression of how Yuni has played this season than what can be gathered by the human eye that so often can be deceived or approach a player with bias. Is it perfect? No, but combining the objective stats I think is more objective and unbiased. I view it essentially as one views looking at players' current OPS. It isn't likely to tell us much about what to expect of them going forward (career statistics are far more valuable in determining that), but it does give me an objective viewpoint of how they have performed this season. I fully expect Yuni to struggle on the defensive side as the season progresses (based on his past statistics), I'll just side with the objective (rather than the subjective) when assessing how he's done. Even with the statistical noise, I think it paints a more accurate picture of a player than the eyes can.

I don't mean to be disrespectful, but you don't understand the stats you are quoting. You think you are being "objective," but the stats you are constantly referencing are little more than random statistical noise at this point. "Small sample size" isn't simply an excuse to ignore something that doesn't fit the narrative.I believe I understand them just fine, I've read up on them extensively and am familiar with how they work. I think a system, such as BIS, while as Stevo pointed out might have its flaws, will be far more objective in its assessment of a player's defense than the human mind can figure based on recollected memory that is highly susceptible to biases. Some would say batting average is "random statistical noise" at this point. But I can use it to say that Plush has played out of his mind on offense to start the season, while Gomez has been awful at the plate. That says nothing about what can be expected of them going forward, it simply is an objective look at where their statistics currently stand.

That's absurd, I never said someone MUST add a statistic to the discussion. I think Ennder's additions to this discussion have been fine, even if we don't agree. He even did admit earlier in the discussion that the BIS statistic did have some relevance when considering objectively how a player has done on the season to this point (although, he and others were mentioning repeatedly how Zone wasn't as good as UZR, so I added that to the discussion when it became available). I think baseball is a sport in which the eyes easily deceive. For example, the difference between a good batter and an average batter is getting one more base-hit for every 20 at bats. I personally think a lot of people came into this season with the argument that Betancourt was one of the worst fielders in MLB history firmly engrained in their minds. It is only natural for people to look for things that confirm their previous held beliefs about a player. I also don't think people instinctively have a good grasp of what average defense looks like at SS. We've been spoiled in Milwaukee of having two top notch SS in a row. Yuni to this point has been no Escobar or Hardy, but objectively the stats are suggesting that he has been fairly close to league average. Once again, that doesn't give an indicator of what we should expect going forward from Yuni. I haven't claimed that it would, nor would I (based on his history of stats that you claim I'm ignoring). But if we want to be objective, the sabermetrics to this point claim he's been essentially average, and they are far more objective than your eyes or my eyes.

Yeah he sure played awful when he saved the game for us with his diving play in the 8th. I'll agree the wicked hop in the 12th made him look silly, although he had to pick that perfect as Shane Victorino was hustling down the line. So he made, perhaps the best defensive play of the season, and a below average play on a wicked hop. I suppose that would qualify his play as the "Worst one would ever have seen", being objective and all. Edit: Ender, they are useless in telling us what to expect going forward, but when all three major defensive sabermetric statistic companies all have his play as essentially league average, does that not, just possibly, suggest that his play to this point might have actually been a bit better than many on here expected at the beginning of the season? I think it does. It is looking at the data three ways, and each came up with the same result. All I heard when I posted BIP and Zone is that they were not UZR. Now I've posted UZR as well, and that still isn't good enough, in your mind, to draw even the slightest conclusion.