strawbossisevil

I'm adding statistics to a discussion. My point in doing so is to demonstrate that Betancourt has actually been playing better than expected to this point in the season in the field (all of the defensive sabermetrics are in agreement on this to this point). I'm not saying I expect it to continue, I'm just adding some stats some had called for earlier in this thread in our discussion of sabermetrics. That is called, adding something to the discussion. So many have posted about how terrible Betancourt has been so far this season, yet the go-to stats that would typically bear this out are saying otherwise. If you want to throw out all of the defensive sabermetric statistics (UZR, Zone, BIS etc) by claiming "small sample", fine. If that is the type of posting that you think ought not be included on this forum, legitimate discussion of stats and figures (instead of angry ranting)...I don't know what this forum is actually here for, as I can get all of my daily ranting on the JSOnline blogs. Edit: I disagree Ender, simply based on the complaining about how his defense has been to this point. If all defensive statistics (pick your poison) are suggesting his defense has been essentially average, it means that those in these forums may not have a proper grasp on what average defense at SS looks like. The point being, we should be more objective in our complaining, and not be placing a magnifying glass expecting gold glove play day in and day out. If we expect that, of course there will be plenty to complain about. But if we are more objective, to this point we would have to say that Betancourt has been thankfully better than advertised. Now whether he continues that is doubtful, but we can be thankful he's been able to play more or less average defense for the first tenth of the season.

No, I've just seen the quality of posting here suffer significantly in the past couple of years. This used to be a place to go and have intelligent discussion. Now, it seems nearly every thread gets converted into some form of vent thread where the same thoughts are rehashed repeatedly without any additional thoughts being added. I would like to think that this forum can be a bit more rational and controlled than the impulsive whining found on the Jsonline blogs. But if you want to defend that type of posting, more power to you.

Betancourt current UZR -.4 (He's currently on pace for his best season since 2007 in the field). Also, UZR has his range at +.2 for the season. Just to add some additional stats to the discussion on Betancourt.

Straw, everyone here that really wants Betancourt gone and never wanted him on the team fully accepts that odds are very high that a different SS would also be a crappy hitter just as Yuni is. That's not where the loathing of Betancourt comes from. It's that he sucks at the plate and in the field at arguably the most important defensive position on the diamond. All of us that are so frustrated with him being acquired would be ok with a bad hitting SS so long as that guy was good defensively, we weren't asking Doug to acquire a guy who could put up a .750-.800 OPS. Just have skill at least at one the two areas of offense/defense, not suck at both as Betancourt does. I get that. Trouble is Luis Cruz would probably hit as bad or worse than most of our pitchers. Betancourt at least has the track record of being able to put up a respectable batting average and decent slugging percentage. Luis Cruz is currently being made to look terrible by guys who aren't good enough to be in the majors. I think Luis Cruz would cost as much on the offensive side as he would have gained us on the defensive side, if not more. There is a reason he is 27, and never spent a whole season in the MLB. As far as your response about complaining. I get venting about something you don't like every now and then. I get that. But rehashing the same complaint over...and over...and over...and over...ad nauseum is what I and others find so ridiculous. If you want to just rehash something you've already posted, open a Word doc, type out your vent, and then delete it and spare the rest of us the same old tired complaint. If you have something new to add to the discussion, by all means, add it. Part of having an intelligent discussion is getting past the...me angry...must type anger...type post.

And my question is, what are you hoping to accomplish with the complaining? All your complaining does is drive many of us who realize that there isn't much that can be done at this point batty. If that is your aim, I suppose your complaining is accomplishing its goal. If that's not it, what purpose could it possibly serve? Wouldn't it be better just to accept, for now, that what we have is the best our team was able to put together going into the season? Accept that, and hold out hope for the future that Melvin makes a deal to bring an average to above average SS to Milwaukee at the trade deadline? I would think that being hopeful for the future is a whole lot better for one's health/sanity than constantly be lashing out and raging over something that is out of our control and isn't likely to change in the near future.

You mean the Luis Cruz who is hitting .227/.244/.432 at AAA? Yeah, we'd be much better off. Some here have honestly lost their ability to think objectively on this subject.

I agree it needs to end. I'm sick of the negative drama from those who complain for complainings sake. As most have pointed out, there really wasn't any better options available following the trade for Greinke. Punto, is the one most frequently pointed to, but as some have pointed out Punto has been a utility man with limited innings at SS and it is fair to point out that Punto is currently injured (as happens a lot with older players). What position would the Brewers be in if Punto had been our starter going into the season? We would have Counsel starting at SS, with some single-A scrub backing him up. Great plan! Those guys who are approaching their upper 30s are not the type of guy you bring in to be your starting SS. The rigors of the position are just too much. I guess I haven't seen anyone disagree that Yuni sucks, and has sucked. However, strangely enough to this point his fielding statistics (which you continue to just dismiss as "unreliable" - primarily because they disagree with the loathing you have for Yuni) have shown him to be close to average defensively so far. I don't think any one here thinks he will keep that up (it would be nice if he did). The main point many of us are making is that there were not any better options at SS than Yuni. We were already paying him to be our SS, so we might as well let him fill the spot until we can find someone better to fill the spot. And by someone better, I don't mean someone who is approaching 40 years old or someone who hasn't spent a lot of time at SS. What I mean by someone better is a guy like Furcal, or Hardy, or Scutaro. Someone who will provide a significant upgrade not only for the latter half of the year, but also for the playoffs. I'll be disappointed with Melvin if we are in the thick of the playoff race at the trade deadline and he doesn't bring an improvement at the position. In the meantime, I'm willing to cut him some slack because there were no really good options for improvement this offseason. I have a feeling that what I wrote above far more representative of the "Yuni defenders" position. None of us are unaware that he's a bad player, but some of us think that a big improvement at the half way point will be a better decision than hoping that a guy approaching 40 years old can stay healthy and put up numbers better than Yuni. Such a move is a coin-flip at best. Also nice try, trying to explain away Yuni's lack of errors. He actually converted a higher percentage of balls to outs than Escobar did last year. Errors are not his problem, he is actually fairly sure-handed for a SS. His problem is, and always has been, range.

So, based on pretty much whatever defensive sabermetrics you use, Betancourt has been fine defensively so far this season. If it were just one of those sabermetrics giving him a good rating it would be suspect, but when two or three metrics are coming down at about the same place (2-3 runs saved), it means he had a pretty solid first dozen games in the field. These are objective statistics, so while there may be a bit more uncertainty than say a batting average, when all metrics are saying the same thing I think it is safe to say that Betancourt has played better than advertised to this point. I also think it shows that many of those who have been criticizing his every move need are being unrealistic about what is "average" defense. Betancourt probably won't be able to sustain these numbers (based on his previous years), but if he somehow is capable of doing that, it will make him a much more palatable option until we are able to bring someone else in via trade at mid-season.

Finally. I'm glad that we are least on the same page as to what we are discussing here. I figured the fact that I quoted the +2 mark of BIS, rather than Total Zone's +3 would have made that evident.

Just checked again...and you need to go back to the link again, because it is there clear as day. Total Zone has him at +3. BIS has him at +2, which is what I quoted in my discussion above. Here is a hint for helping you find the BIS system of defensive metrics...look at the category that says "Rdrs". Here is an explanation of BIS's system of defensive metrics and how it fixes many of the problems inherent to Total Zone. http://espn.go.com/blog/s...2%80%99-fielding-systems The fact that both Total Zone and BIS's system that takes into account the type of hit both rate him positively so far this season suggest that he has done well, at least to this point, on defense.

It isn't total zone!!!! Look at the link, read, then commence criticism. I don't think there is any objectivity in this discussion, however. You want the stats to read a certain way, and if they don't, criticize the objective statistics!

That isn't based on Total Zone (did you look at the link????). It is based on Baseball Info Solutions. Total Zone has Yuni as +3 on the year.

It most certainly does. To make a comparison, it is like if Craig Counsel were currently hitting .350 and an OPS of .900 after 11 games. I can safely say that the objective statistics suggest that he has hit very well so far this season. It is an objective fact. All of the statistics bear that out. The numbers have no correlation to future events because they are a small sample. That is where you are getting confused. We need 3 years of good info to predict what can be expected of a player in the future. With that amount of information, it becomes a fairly accurate for future predictions. But, the objective numbers that we have can show how a player has performed, with no reflection towards the future and what can be expected in the future. They are facts. Counsel hit .350 (in my fictional example), Yuni has been slightly above average based on objective stats. Now, if you want to guess how they'll do the rest of the season, yes, Yuni likely will cost us runs going forward. He has not done so, however, to this point. And if he were to play defense the way he has done so far in the first 12 games, he would be an average defender. Just like if Counsel (in my fictional example) were to hit .350 with an OPS in the .900s would be an all star/silver slugger winner if he were to keep that up all season.

This is exactly my point. It shows that those complaining about how he has performed on defense to this point of the season have seriously been reaching and overly critical. That isn't to say that they won't have situations for legitimate criticism as the season wears on, but BF.net has been a bit quick with the trigger with Betancourt. I for one, hope he continues to provide solid defense and prove us all wrong. If he could combine average defense with his bat, he wouldn't be nearly the liability we originally envisioned.

Look, I agree that he, more than likely, is going to finish the season as a below average fielder. That isn't my point. My point is that people have been extremely critical of his defense so far this season...despite the fact that all objective stats suggest that he has actually done quite well to this point. My other point is that people expected the Brewers to make an upgrade at the position. The problem is this. 1) the available options this offseason were in their mid to upper 30s. 2) amongst those many had been playing the utility role, and hadn't come even close to playing a full season at the position. There were no significant upgrades available at the SS position this offseason following the Greinke trade. 3) If we had somehow held on to Escobar in all of this, would people be still calling for the signing of a SS? Escobar to this point in the season has the same WAR as Betancourt. As I've stated a number of times, I think the Brewers hands were somewhat tied this offseason by a lack of SS options. I think they'll likely make a deal in July to bring in a guy like Furcal. Come playoff time, I would rather have a guy like Furcal in the lineup than some mid 30s scrub.

It is the only defensive metric currently available to measure how he is doing (as UZR isn't available currently as far as I can tell). And this defensive metric has always painted him as a poor defender in the past, so I think it serves as a decent measuring stick. The point is he clearly hasn't been as bad so far this season as some are claiming. I was curious how quickly someone was going to come on here to dismiss the statistic because it doesn't fit with ongoing argument...what was it, 10 minutes? Give Betancourt some credit. He currently has made 11 out of zone plays according to Fangraphs - a huge jump in where he should be at this point of the season. Essentially, all of the stats we have so far on this season suggest he has been better than we could ever have expected in the field going into the season. The problem is, no one is noticing because people are watching him under a magnifying glass, looking for any small "slip up" where they can knock him. In the game threads there have been plays where not even Escobar would have come close to making the play (because of a shift), and yet Betancourt is derided for not making the play. There is no objectivity at this point. People believe he sucks (and in his career he has), and therefore they are looking for any visible clues to confirm that belief.

While I am no means going to expect the defensive numbers to continue to paint him in this light. According to Baseball Reference, Yuni's defense to this point in the season has saved 2 runs above average, and is on pace to be +25 over the course of the whole season. He's been bad for most of his career, but the defensive statistics to this point suggest he hasn't been nearly as bad this season as most in this thread have stated. It is a small sample, I know, but it is interesting - considering all of the complaining that has been done so far this season about his defense. http://www.baseball-refer.../b/betanyu01-field.shtml

Career UZR/150 of 14.5. There you go, one stat that shows Carlos Gomez is more than useless...I guess you have to believe in him now. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4881&position=OF The guy is an elite defensive player at a premium defensive position which makes him a valuable player to have. If all he ever did was hit, then yes, he is worthless. But for what he lacks in offense, he compensates for in defense. He'll never be an all star caliber player, even with the elite defense factored in. But he probably has the value of an average Major League CF all things considered.

Rogers would likely have been the 5th starter to begin the year if it wasn't for the fact that tightness in his shoulder slowed down his progression this spring. Everything I'd heard from team management seems to have backed that idea up. I believe that if any of the Brewers starters were to go down long term in a month or two, Rogers is the guy we will see filling that rotation spot. He clearly has the potential to be an above average starter. I disagree entirely that he is more likely to be looked upon as a reliever rather than a starter. He'll only be a reliever if he first fails at a major league starting gig.

Plus the Brewers organization was dictating what pitches he had to throw (more change ups, less sliders) over the course of last season. When he came up to the majors last year he was able to throw what he wanted, and his control was far better.

I guess I don't see how either could "live up" or "live down" to expectations in as short a time period as three games. Betancourt is a poor hitter, yes, but his average is going to be a lot closer to .250-.275 by the end of the season than his current average of .000. He's going through a rough stretch, no doubt. I just don't know how much the rough stretch can really tell us about what we can expect from him this year. Every player goes through stretches where they just look lost at the plate during the season. Kotsay may not even be on the roster once Hart gets back.

Key phrase of the whole article right there. This is what was said during the Royals broadcast. The backup job is Kottaras's to lose. Unless he hits/plays horribly, when Lucroy comes back Nieves goes. How anyone could read that article and think that Kottaras is likely to lose the backup spot is beyond me. He clearly is the current favorite of the coaching staff to stick around.

That isn't what I heard, PrinceEatMeat. I heard that he is going to be Gallardo's personal catcher until Lucroy returns. I've actually heard that Kottaras will be catching the majority of the pitchers until Lucroy comes back. (Per Brewers/Royals Spring training game commentary). Can you provide me with a link that says otherwise?

Fair enough. Hey, how about despite all of the question marks in today's lineup we go out and start the season one game up on Cinci in the standings.

I'm not trying to make people not hate on Betancourt. I think he is a below average player. I just think there is some ignorance on this site as to why he is a below average player. It has nothing to do with his glove or his BA, it has everything to do with his range and inability to draw a walk. Stupid nicknames just encourage ignorance.