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DougJones43

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Everything posted by DougJones43

  1. DougJones43
    I'm not sure how you can "disagree" with statistical data. I don't think you completely understand the concept behind what I posted. The run frequency matrix takes the failure rate of hitting into account for it's projections. However, pulling the stats from the post-bunt (2nd/3rd, 1 out) run frequency projection does not take the bunt failure rate into account. It just assumes that the bunt was successful. You need to consider the fact that the bunt had a chance to fail if you want to accurately examine the strategy, and it's potential to produce at least 1 run. That's really comparing apples to oranges, and I think it's a pretty big stretch. Like I've tried to say (perhaps I'm not explaining my position very well?), the 5% you mentioned is basically wiped out, and then some, by the failure rate of bunting. But, if you find all that stuff "amusing," then there is probably not much point in continuing this discussion.
  2. DougJones43
    Re-read what I just posted. A good amount of statistical data supports the theory that the Brewers might have actually had a better chance of scoring at least 1 lone run if Hart did not bunt. Even if Yost was really hoping for just 1 run (which, to me, is silly enough on its own), bunting still probably wasn't the way to go.
  3. DougJones43
    According to the tangotiger run frequency matrix, here is the likelihood of scoring at least 1 run: 1st/2nd, 0 outs = 64.1% 2nd/3rd, 1 out = 69.5% So, there is only a very small increase in the probability of scoring at least 1 run, and that is assuming a 100% success rate with the bunt. Obviously, sacrifice bunts don't work anywhere near 100% of the time. There is a relatively high rate of failure involved with bunt attempts. Combine the bunting failure rate with the odds posted above, and statistically speaking, Ned actually lessened the chance of scoring even 1 run when he decided to attempt a bunt with Hart. When you look even further, and realize Hart is one of the team's best hitters, and the bunt was also going to really hinder the chance for multiple runs, there is really nothing left but anecdotal evidence left to support the decision to bunt with Hart yesterday.
  4. DougJones43
    I'm sorry to hear that you were so traumatized by finding discussions and criticisms of Ned Yost in the "Ned Yost: Yay or Nay" thread. It must have really caught you off guard. Sorry for ruining brewerfan.net for you. For future reference, if reading certain things is going to destroy your life, you might want to check the title of what you're looking at before you go ahead and read it. For instance, if you detest reading about United States history, try and avoid books that contain the words "United States" and "History." Just a thought. Have a nice life.
  5. DougJones43
    Of course talent plays more of a role than the manager. I don't really see how that fact illustrates that a manager's role is as marginal and unimportant as you're claiming. First off, the high-leverage situation (where he used Aquino) on Monday was the 8th inning. And there were 2 outs. I can find you plenty of managers who would summon their closer to record the last 4 outs of a game. Especially during a pennant chase, where managers should be pulling out all the stops, not using guys with an ERA near 6 who have been in the minors all year. Second, I couldn't really disagree more with your assertion that managing is all about maintaining a good clubhouse, while strategy isn't important. There have been great teams that were disorderly and didn't get along. I've never really seen any evidence that a "good clubhouse" wins games. Good strategy is much more equatable to winning.
  6. DougJones43
    Well, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree on that one. I think it's very likely the Brewers could have a much better record with somebody other than Bozo T. Manager running the show.
  7. DougJones43
    Who said anything like that? Seriously? Exaggerating to paint the critics as "absurd" is about as lame as an arguing point can get. Do you really think it's out of the realm of possibility that with a different manager, this team could be something like 74-64 instead of 70-68? It's only a 4 game difference over the course of the season, but it would put us 10 games over .500 instead of 2, and we would be firmly in 1st place rather than battling it out with the Cubs and Cardinals. Laugh all you want at the idea, it's very plausible that a manager could easily make that kind of difference.
  8. DougJones43
    I can assure you that my philosophies on bunting with a #5 hitter, or using Greg Aquino caliber pitchers in high-leverage situations would not change one iota if the Brewers had a better record. I was one of the only people on this board who disagreed with a lot of Ned's decisions earlier on, when the Brewers were winning. I've disliked Ned's philosophies and managerial atttributes for a very long time, and anybody who posts here regularly can attest to that. When I questioned the mighty Brewers earlier in this season, I was usually told to keep quiet and stop being a malcontent, because the Brewers were in 1st place and I should just enjoy it. Now that we're losing, people who disagree with Ned are called second-guessers and bandwagon-jumpers. Is there any appropriate time or manner in which to question or criticize a manager? I guess I just disagree that we should always just assume that he knows best (he was a backup catcher after all, he has some kind of magical sixth sense for "The Game" that we could only dream of!), and it's completely up to the players to come through no matter how ridiculous of a situation he puts them in.
  9. DougJones43
    Hart also carries an .874 OPS, and that bunt was clearly a sacrifice attempt. Hart wasn't going for the bunt single there. I think bunting with your #5 hitter is sheer silliness, and I disagree with it whole-heartedly in almost every single situation. Bunting with Hart there basically ensured a small inning. With 2 on, nobody out, and one of your best hitters at the plate, that's the time a team should go for a big inning to put the game out of reach. Instead, we ended up giving away outs and being satisfied to get 1 lousy run in the inning. With that kind of approach, and a disaster-prone bullpen to boot, it's no wonder this team has squandered so many leads. It didn't blow up in our face this time, but that doesn't make it right. It's a strategy that has failed enough already for one year, and I'm sick of seeing it.
  10. DougJones43
    I never saw that before. That was pretty awesome. I just remembered we're 1.5 games out. Oh no, I'm excited again.
  11. DougJones43
    Here is a list of things I'd rather do than see Ned Yost manage one more game for the Brewers: - Get a flat tire - Sit on a tack - Accidentally zip up my privates in my pants zipper - Get flogged with a bamboo cane - Listen to Miss South Carolina talk about something - Get stabbed in the eye with a rusty nail - Have "the runs" - Watch Becker - Drink a shot of Drain-O - Stick my head in a toilet - Get mauled by a bear - Hang out with David Hasselhoff - Try to brush my teeth using my Shick Quattro razor - Drive to Orlando while wearing an adult diaper
  12. DougJones43
    http://www.faqs.org/health/images/uchr_03_img0291.jpg
  13. DougJones43
    Julio Franco. It seems like forever ago that the season began. Very good early on. Things haven't been pretty for awhile, but somehow the team is still hanging around, and nobody can figure out how or why. If it is later revealed that the team fell apart because all the players contracted Ross River Fever, then I will change my vote to Dave Nilsson.
  14. DougJones43
    Front page of ESPN.com. Woohoo!! Oh wait... http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/8331/frontpagewr8.jpg Mench seems like a strange choice for the poster boy of the Brewers collapse. Oh well.
  15. DougJones43
    Update: <font size="4"> [u][b]AVG[/b][/u] [u][b]OBP[/b][/u] [u][b]SLG[/b][/u] [b][u]OPS[/u][/b] [b][u]HARDY[/u][/b] Before Y&R .312 .355 .602 .957 <font style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffccff">After Y&R .252 .306 .388 .694</font> [b][u]HALL[/u][/b] Before Y&R .268 .329 .452 .781 <font style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffccff">After Y&R .252 .313 .423 .736</font> [u][b]W-L[/b][/u] [b][u]ERA[/u][/b] [b][u]CAPUANO[/u][/b] Before Y&R 5-2 3.72 <font style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffccff">After Y&R 0-9 6.39</font> [b][u]SUPPAN[/u][/b] Before Y&R 6-4 3.49 <font style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffccff">After Y&R 2-7 5.79</font></font>
  16. DougJones43
    Message board threats are cool. I'm sure you would have said that right to his face if he were standing in front of you, in person.
  17. DougJones43
    http://www.chartattack.com/gallery/20000501-reznor.jpg "Every day is exactly the same..."
  18. DougJones43
    Here is a prediction thread from about a month ago, for the sake of reference. In an even older division prediction thread (which I can no longer find), I gave the Cubs a slight edge to win it. I had no idea then that the Cards would crawl back into it. Even so, I still think the Cubs will win the division. CHI: 85-77 MIL: 80-82 STL: 79-83
  19. DougJones43
    He looked like he was close at the end.
  20. DougJones43
    As a defense of Ned I don't think he's ever said everything was groovy.http://static.yuku.com//domainskins/bypass/img/smileys/wink.gif http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/448/yostbunchmo1.jpg
  21. DougJones43
    And that's the part that kind of sucks in all this. I know he is trying his very best, and that he desperately wants to win for the team and the city of Milwaukee. Nobody truly wants to see another person go through being despised and eventually losing their job. But sports is what it is, and there is probably somebody out there who could do his job better than he can.
  22. DougJones43
  23. DougJones43
    I think he only deserves one more year after this to get the Brewers over the hump. If they don't finish with at least 85 wins or so by 2008, time to change GM's. Six years is more than enough time, I don't care how bare the cupboard was when he started. Other teams have built, torn down, and rebuilt again in six years. Melvin did a nice job turning us from a laughing-stock into at least a real live Major League Baseball team, but that was accomplished in 2005. If his team isn't able to take the next step (playoff team) within three years of that time, it's just not good enough.
  24. DougJones43
    Get a sense of humor.
  25. DougJones43
    Francisco Cordero has pitched a grand total of 2 innings during the past 15 days. I guess it makes sense for a team who is routinely blowing leads to use their best pitcher extremely sparingly.
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