splitterpfj

https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2016/06/28/starting-pitching-problem-red-sox-also-need-bat-like-jonathan-lucroy This same article was linked higher up on the same page by another poster. It's good stuff, I hope people will actually click on that and read it.

On the Lucroy to Boston article, Milwaukee has the talent on hand to get any prospect Boston has, and the Brewers could certainly fill multiple needs for the Sox. The issue, of course, will be Boston's willingness to part with those guys. Of the four, "uncouchables" (whaaaaatever) I think Devers and Espinoza are the easier two to get right now. I'm not going to get into wild, unlikely speculation, but these two teams could match up for a real doozy if they wanted to.

1B Chris Shaw from the Giants sounds good. If the Giants decide they need to trade for an infielder, I think that's a good match.

For which prospects?

As Toby mentioned, the issue of having Gatewood at Appleton, may cause Ercig to jump to Brevard at some point this season. Whether or not that happens, it points to a future conflict - Gatewood had better produce, because there's a player at the same position who may very well move him out of the way. I don't see Ercig spending this whole season in Helena, and beyond that, this could easily be a collision course in less than a year.

Exactly, whatever level the deal gets to, Guerra moves the return higher, but he doesn't create the return.

Right now, Boston is trying not to trade any of its top four prospects - I don't think they'll be able do do that, because the needs on their big club have simply become too obvious. The Red Sox have to get pitching, they really just have to, so that's the priority before anyone like Lucroy or Braun will come up. You see rumors about guys like Sonny Gray and Julio Teheran - that's what Boston wants to do, if those teams make them available. Yes, I think Boston would want Guerra, but only if he's pitching well in a month, and only after they've already done something much bigger for their pitching staff, or they've been shut out on pitchers, which isn't likely.

If Guerra continues to pitch well, he will have value as the added piece to a deal that was otherwise not about him. There is no pitching to be had right now - teams are going to fight over Bud Norris in a couple of weeks. Guerra won't bring back much by himself right now, but he might move a team a bit higher on the return for someone like Lucroy or Will Smith.

That's a bold move, its been a while since the Brewers took a college bat so highly in the draft, I'm not used to seeing a kid jump right to A+.

Jon Heyman suggests Braun and cash to the Giants for Tyler Beede and Mac Williamson. Heyman points out, the Giants are over the luxury tax threshold, meaning, they will pay a 33% tax on additional dollars - so there's NO WAY the Brewers send Braun to SF without kicking in some real money. Beede is a real prospect, a young pitcher with the "stuff" to be a well above average MLB starter - the problem - he lacks command. While Beede has the potential to fill a rotation spot nicely for several years, there is a real chance he becomes a relief pitcher, it will come down to the command issue - he gets better there, or he does not. Williamson is an outfielder who was a pitcher in his past. His career has been stalled in the past by arm injuries, so he's getting on in years for a prospect - he'll be 26 next month. His arm is still his best tool, followed by his above average power. Honestly, I have no problem with the Brewers getting Beede in a deal, but Williamson doesn't move me, and if you have to kick in millions to get it done, I'd say the time is not right to move Braun - at least not to the Giants.

In his recent piece, "Eight Dream Trade Scenarios", Jon Heyman suggested, "Jonathan Lucroy for Joey Gallo." OK, here's the deal - Joey Gallo has as much power potential as you could ever hope for in a young player, there's no doubt about that skill. Gallo also has a strong arm, strong enough to throw from anywhere on the field without question. Due to his power, Gallo is sometimes pitched around, and to his credit, Gallo will take a walk, which of course boosts his OBP. The downside - his hit, run, and field tools are all below average. This player is a gamble on the huge power skills, backed by the need to choose a defensive position for him, which may not be third base. If the Brewers did this, they may have a future Hall of Famer, who hits 600 home runs, or they may have a classic AAAA player.

Squirrels who raid bird feeders bug me. I get it, we all gotta eat .... but come on man.

With Wheeler shut down, Harvey all over the map, and Matz dealing with at least minor elbow stiffness, the Mets truly don't have the chips to bring in an impact bat. I think they're the team for Gourriel, they can't stand pat, and they can't make trades for anyone beyond a band-aid. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/16401858/new-york-mets-work-cuban-defector-yulieski-gourriel

Conforto has shown flashes of being a 30+ hr, middle of the order hitter in the majors already A fair point, and hence the reason the Brewers would want a player like him. However, he has also shown flashes of being returned to AAA, which has been rumored in recent days. The Brewers don't need to deal Braun, if the offers are two guys who look, "pretty good", I'd keep him in Milwaukee at this point.

If we asked for just Conforto for him, the Mets would say no...not happening. If this is true, then what's the value in trading Ryan Braun? If you can't get somebody who at least has a chance to be an excellent big leaguer, then you're either taking less than Braun is worth in talent, or you're simply dumping the contract. The only way you dump the contract on a guy who's playing at an all-star level is because you have a better plan for the money, or I suppose you could be fearing a collapse by the player you've got. If the Brewers think they have a better plan for the money, then I trust them to move Braun and enact that plan. Braun's still good, and not just a little bit. Braun's contract is not out of line for his production. Yes, he's a unique case, I understand why some teams would shy away, but if the return is thin, I think the Brewers should keep Braun right where he is. At some point, either someone pays for Ryan Braun in talent, or the Brewers decide to let them pay for him in dollars. If the offer isn't there in talent right now, Braun is certainly showing me enough to wait on a deal and see what the winter brings.

Would Wheeler have significant trade value in 2017-2018, or is he the anchor of a (modestly) contending Brewer 2018 team? I think these are the right questions to ask, and they lead to the reason I wouldn't make a move like this .... there's too much uncertainty, because Wheeler hasn't pitched in so long. If you trade a player like Ryan Braun for a single player, you have to be certain you're getting a key contributor back, or at least you have to have a plan for the money you're saving, that will lead you to improved talent. Honestly, since I don't expect a contending team to deal a key player away midseason, you're looking at prospects - I want to hedge the bet, by getting more than one. From the Mets .... looking at a thin farm system, I want Wheeler and Michael Conforto, and then, ONLY if the scouts still truly believe in both guys. If I'm the Mets, I'm over the thumb injury, I'd check the back out as much as you can, and then I weigh things like, will Cespedes stay or go, does Braun push this team over the top this season, and how do we feel about the past PED stuff? Whether or not it's the Mets, someone will jump, or the Brewers will keep Braun for the time being.

Braun for Wheeler straight up, no money from the Brewers side. Absolutely not. Ryan Braun is still an outstanding hitter, he's not good, he's much better than that. You can't sell me Wheeler for Braun, saying Braun has a history of injury, because Wheeler does too. You can't sell me Wheeler, saying he's an equal talent to Braun, because he certainly is not, he is the young pitcher with talent, who was not elite in the big leagues before he was hurt, has now been hurt, and has burned service time. You can't sell me, "Dump Braun to Save Money", because Braun's contract isn't terrible at this point to begin with, and the team cut plenty of payroll, so they can afford to keep him here if they so choose. This would be a, "get out of the contract and hope Wheeler's ok" move - what's the point? If the Brewers do a thing like that, they're telling me they fear his back injury much more than we know at this point, or they don't believe PEDs are gone for good. I have no reason to believe either, but it's not like the team would put that on the evening news. Braun's playing well, if that's the best offer out there, then keep him right here and talk to teams again in November.

BTW, one of the reasons the Houston Astros have been doing better .... Since Gomez came off the DL, he's hitting .305, he has three home runs and three steals, scoring ten runs, and driving in nine.

There's this: http://nypost.com/2016/06/17/matt-harvey-alarms-go-off-as-nls-worst-team-batters-him/ And this: http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/06/20/palladino-mets-steven-matz-zack-wheeler/

I mentioned earlier, i think the pitcher the Mets should deal is Matt Harvey. The reason .... he is the closest to free agency - they keep as much team control as possible, and if they're going to hope on Wheeler, what's the difference between Harvey and Matz, it's still a hope. I'm sure the Mets will try to use Wheeler, and that does make some sense for them, but I also think teams will have some trouble matching up on a Wheeler trade if it's for a star player, not just a good one. The "opposing GM" has to guess what he's getting, while giving a known commodity. I think the biggest obstacle for the Brewers and the Mets is D'Arnaud - if he somehow looks good, they'll look to upgrade a different position. If the Brewers do make a deal for one of the Mets' pitchers, I think the intent should be to then trade that pitcher sometime in the next year, for the package of prospects you had hoped to get for Lucroy (betting on the assumption that there would be more bidders, since it's pitcher). EDIT: If the Brewers were to get Matz, that wouldn't be the case, I'd want them to build around him - I'm going with the assumption that Matz is unattainable.

The Mets are not a match at all. I cant imagine why they would trade one of their key MLB starting pitchers? For example, they were just swept by the Braves. This is a team that needs to make significant improvements to its lineup, and it has one obvious strength to deal from. The Mets are backwards, usually a team has to get arms to get over the top - they simply do not score enough to support the pitching they've assembled. The farm system isn't ready to provide significant help, they claim they can't take on a big contract, and at that Yoenis Cespedes can opt out of his contract after the season. Wheeler's nice, but he's not amazing, and he won't have time to prove much before the deadline, to raise his trade value. Honestly, the Mets either have to keep what they've got, and hope like crazy, or they have to deal an arm to fix what's broken.

So you think the Brewers could still land the Red Sox untouchable prospects Devers and Espinosa Yes I do. For a team that does so many things well, Boston has some obvious needs, and a deep farm system. They're not getting what they want, and keeping those four together, they'll either have to buy lesser talent with lesser prospects, or pay for what they're getting. As for the Mets, they have a huge strength in their rotation, but their lineup is fast becoming Yoenis Cespedes and a bucket of tears. They have to do something in NY, or they'll waste a year of having these pitchers together - I don't think they'll do that. The Mets don't have the farm system to get what they need, if they're going to make a true impact for the big club, they're going to have to deal from their one obvious strength, which is MLB starting pitching. Matt Harvey is the closest in the bunch to free agency, I would expect the Mets to try to retain as much team control of those arms as possible, which makes him first in line for trade discussions. Wheeler has to be ok, or the Mets are in big trouble, because then they don't even have the starting pitcher ready to deal. The Mets are not in a strong position, they have obvious needs, RIGHT NOW, on the big club. They could get a huge package of prospects for Harvey if he pitches well for the next few weeks, but those players would have to be ready to come up and help right away. Which team has a true impact bat to deal, that won't destroy the Mets' budget, etc, etc .... it's not an easy fit. Harvey's a wildcard, if he looks like a Cy Young candidate for the next few weeks, who knows what someone might throw at the Mets? If Harvey backslides and gets lit up again, this show is over. It's a lot of moving parts, but it would get all three teams what they're looking for.

Boston is a great match for the Brewers, and Lucroy would certainly improve them, but they've got to get a starting pitcher in there. The Mets can't score runs, there's not much else to say on that. The Mets will watch to see how Wheeler looks, and they're going to give D'Arnaud one more shot, but the man is going to be playing catcher with a tear in his shoulder. The Red Sox could use a catcher, and they could use an outfielder, but I think they'll make pitching the priority, since they already score plenty of runs. People on here talk about Steven Matz, and yes, the Mets could afford to deal a pitcher, if Wheeler is ready to go. People on here also talk about how they don't want the Brewers to deal Lucroy for guys who have burned service time. OK, so if you connect the dots, Matz has more remaining team control than his teammate, Matt Harvey. Doesn't it make sense that Harvey, not Matz, would be the guy New York would choose to part with? The Mets are trying to win, they're not going to deal for guys who will help in 2018, they need to hit - right now, while they have those pitchers together. Lucroy for Harvey - if there has to be another piece each way, then sort it out. Harvey, with Boston's choice of our bullpen guys, for Rafael Devers, Anderson Espinoza, Trey Ball, and either Josh Ockimey or a PTBNL, if they want to check out Blake Swihart's medicals and choose between he and Ockimey. A month ago, Harvey was pitching so poorly, the Mets nearly sent him to AAA to sort it out - now, he's had three strong starts in a row. Harvey needs to pitch well, or this goes out the window, but if things line up in New York, for Wheeler to step in, and with Harvey holding enough value to make this happen, then this would help all three teams. There aren't pitchers out there to be bought in free agency next winter, and there's not a lot on the trade market right now either. The Brewers appear to be holding the two best available bats, so I'm not ruling out something like this. Here's to continued futility for Mets catchers, continued resurgence for Matt Harvey, and an, "all clear" for Zack Wheeler, prior to the trade deadline.

Jose Gomez, Round 39, is 5' 3".

Lucroy to the Mets makes a ton of sense for the Mets, and I expect the "Lucroy for Wheeler" buzz to heat up. If Wheeler had some sort of stat line to shop, I wouldn't hate the idea, IF the Brewers then flipped Wheeler for a couple of prospects .... but Wheeler won't have time before the deadline to show he's worth what we'd all want the Brewers to get. So ... In Matt Harvey's last three starts, he has allowed 2 ER total .... looks like he's figured it out. Travis D'Arnaud is due back in the next couple of days, to try to save the Mets ..... he has a tear in his rotator cuff .... guess which way I'm betting. When Wheeler is ready .... Harvey for Lucroy, and the Brewers move Harvey to Boston for the prospect package they really should be getting for Lucroy.