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And That

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Everything posted by And That

  1. And That
    Braun changed one team on his list since season's end but it hasn't been reported what the change was.
  2. And That
    Split contracts are extremely common. But usually just the MLB portion is reported. Most to all of the pre-arby guys have split contracts. For instance, if Yadiel Rivera is in MLB, he's making about $535k next year. In AAA he's probably making closer to $100k. Anyone on a minor league deal with a spring training invite would have a split contract as well.
  3. And That
    Ethier has 10/5 rights. Doubt he'd approve a trade to Milwaukee, but you never know.
  4. And That
    Thames also plays the OF. If the Brewers have a chance to acquire Bellinger, Thames should not be an obstacle.
  5. And That
    But they are not for Alternative Minimum Tax income. It is generally assumed that owners of a pass through will be subject to AMT.
  6. And That
    No, 15 day DL is now 10 day DL.
  7. And That
    As I understand it, yes. So if the Brewers had a $6 million cap because of their market, they could either trade all of it away, or trade for additional cap space of up to $4.5 million, which would give them maximum available funds to spend of $10.5 million. Which means that signings like Moncada and Puig won't happen anymore. Players like that, and currently Shohei Otani, will have to wait until they have enough service time in foreign leagues to qualify as a major league free agent. That's a pretty awful system.
  8. And That
    Brewers are likely organized as a pass-through entity. Maximum federal tax rate for individuals is 39.6%. And most of the owners will pay state/local taxes on top of that. At my company we use a baseline 45% tax rate for owner income.
  9. And That
    Another Rule 5 draft preview, this time from MLB Pipeline's Jonathan Mayo. Nellie Rodriguez would be an interesting platoon-mate for Thames, especially if rosters expand to 26. If Lewis Thorpe is (finally) healthy, he could be an interesting arm to nab.
  10. And That
    I don't think that's really how it works. I don't think they're putting that in a piggy bank and saying "ok, well we didn't spend it this year, so we'll be able to spend MORE money next year. If they didn't spend it, they didn't spend it. Whatever they don't spend in 2016 is just profit. Yep. Really simplistic example, but say they had $100 million in revenue and $66 million in expenses, that would be $34 million in net cash operating income, and assuming a tax rate of about 30%, that income generates $10 million in taxes, meaning net cash income is $24 million. If they spent $16 million less and still had $100 million in revenue, they would have $50 million in net cash operating income. Still assuming tax rate of 30%, that means $15 million in taxes, which drops net cash income to $35 million. So again, really simplistic example that doesn't take in account any number of factors, but not spending the $16 million lead to a savings of just $11 million. Which is still $11 million, but the point being that there are real $$ tax consequences for reducing expenses at a constant level of revenue. One of the only ways it makes business sense to drop expenses below what you can sustain is if you have a lot of previous taxable losses that you can still use to cancel out current income. Which the Brewers' organization may or may not have at this point.
  11. And That
    Why? 750 is about where I think he'll end up, maybe on the low side depending on how his plate discipline shakes out. ZIPS has him at 814. His MLE in the KBO last year was around 860. This is not an untalented guy. Personally, I'd be ecstatic about anything over 850, pleasantly surprised between 825-850, unsurprised between 725-825, and disappointed under 725. Though even 725 with competent defense probably makes him worth more than Carter, and makes him worth much more than his $4 mil salary. Travis Shaw's 2016 season would just about be my baseline, I guess.
  12. And That
    https://twitter.com/BrewCrewBlue/status/803679516929519617 Good perspective on Braun's contract.
  13. And That
    Carter's OBP was .321 last year. MLB average OBP was .322.
  14. And That
    There have only been about half a dozen or so guys to make the jump, so any success rate is skewed by sample size. It's still a "who knows" at this point.
  15. And That
    It's 20 days of the regular season, same calendar as used to determine service time. So when he was optioned in spring training of 2013 and then outrighted before the season started, he spent 0 days on optional assignment. No option used. Any point during the regular season counts the same as any other. When he was optioned in 2012, he spent in the neighborhood of 45 days on optional assignment. Doesn't matter if minor league season was over or not. Option was used that year. http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3521
  16. And That
    Geltz can become a FA if he's outrighted off of the 40-man. Previously outrighted by Angels in 2013.
  17. And That
    Geltz is about as extreme a flyball pitcher as you're going to find.
  18. And That
    There is also talent level. He has no power to speak of, has a below average arm, and isn't really a CFer. He has plus speed but is not particularly great at using his speed to steal bases. On the scouting scale, his ceiling is a 45, but I would call him a 40 overall, with potential to drop to 35 if his offensive game regresses in 2017. As for on-base trend, here are his walk rates: 2013: 7.81% 2014: 7.87% 2015: 7.54% 2016: 13.36% 2016 looks more like an outlier than any sort of continuation of a trend. One marginal change does not a trend make. Edit: As long as we're looking at trends, here is his SB success rate: 2013: 83.33% 2014: 78.13% 2015: 73.47% 2016: 70.73% Or how about K%: 2013: 9.95% 2014: 14.82% 2015: 12.90% 2016: 15.31%
  19. And That
    Before 2016, Wren had a less-than-desirable BB% for a guy whose ISO is never going to sniff .100 in a normal offensive environment. Tony Gwynn Jr. got on base in the minor leagues too. Same as with Gwynn, MLB pitchers are not going to be afraid to throw him strikes because they are just as likely to knock the bat out of his hands as he is to hit a ball hard. Maybe Wren's upside at the plate is Gwynn, which is not saying much. He's also not nearly the defender TGJ was, which is where TGJ had most of his value. If you're taking Wren in the Rule 5, you're taking him to be a 5th OF now, and a 5th OF in the future. I doubt teams are going to want to be saddled with a guy who has to be their 5th OF all season, as that's normally a role that rotates around during the year. Though if the 26th man is added the roster, it's more of a possibility.
  20. And That
    The Brewers should take Nick Delmonico just to spite him. I don't get the author's comment about Kyle Wren: "Frankly, I’m surprised a player of Wren’s caliber went unprotected." Light hitting corner outfielders are usually left unprotected for a reason. Wren will very likely not repeat his AAA .414 BABIP in 2017, and especially not at the major league level.
  21. And That
    Depends on where his velocity is at. If he can get back to 91-92 over 70+ pitches or 93ish out of the pen, sure. If he's throwing 87, probably not worth it even if he's still generating a ton of ground balls.
  22. And That
    Barrios has already been re-signed. Vinicio, Villegas and Tago have signed elsewhere.
  23. And That
    If the Brewers feel strongly about any of the players in the draft, guys like Goforth and Scahill could just be DFA'd between now and the deadline.
  24. And That
    http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/analytical-look-minor-league-free-agents/#EFLmvrXv1Vb4ag6x.97 Pretty cool look at minor league FA analytics.
  25. And That
    They can select as many players as they have open 40-man roster spots. They have until three days before the draft to clear 40-man spots.
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