Matt Breen

Now, imagine if we can trade Santana for Meija from Cleveland: 2019/2020: Cain, Yelich, braun, Shaw, huira, meija, Phillips/Lutz, arcia. Rotation of Nelson, Anderson, Davies, Woodruff, Burnes. Bullpen of Kneble, Hader, Peralta, Williams, ... That could be scary good. Mejia would be awesome, but the guy is a top 10-20 prospect in the game. He'd cost a ton. Cleveland - just like Milwaukee - needs these cheap, cost controlled players to survive. Plus, the Indians are likely going to need a decent catcher in the near future - and they really don't have anyone else in the system that would fill the need. But hey - who knows. Can't hurt to try and get the guy. Obviously we can dangle Santana as a centerpiece of any deal - but I don't think that will be enough. And I just don't know what else it will take. The biggest question might be Mejia's defense. His arm is fantastic, but some scouts aren't thrilled with his work behind the plate. I don't know why - perhaps others can expand on this. The fact that the Indians played Mejia at 3B in the AFL is kind of interesting. Not sure what to read into it. On one hand, the Indians say they want him to improve his versatility. On the other, if you want a guy to improve at catching, shouldn't you keep him there? Just saying.

Cubs would get a pick after competitive balance B somewhere in the high 70's Scott - How do you figure that? I recall there being a sliding cost scale if a team signed a player that declined a QO but I was under the impression that all teams that lost a player (who declined a QO) got a pick after Round 1 and before the Comp A picks began. That is where Cleveland & KC are picking for losing Carlos Santana, LoCain & Hosmer. http://m.mlb.com/draft/2018/order There were a number of changes to the draft setup this year so I could have easily missed something.. The quick explanation is that the Cubs are NOT a revenue sharing recipient. Thus their picks are after Competitive Balance Round B. Teams that get money in revenue sharing go after the 1st round - teams such as KC and Cleveland. That's why you are seeing what you are seeing. Here's the details: Under the new rules, if the team that loses the free agent is a revenue-sharing recipient, based on its revenues and market size, then the selection -- if and only if the lost player signs for at least $50 million -- will be awarded a pick between the first round and Competitive Balance Round A of the 2018 MLB Draft. If the player signs for less than $50 million, the compensation pick for those teams would come after Competitive Balance Round B, which follows the second round. The following 16 teams currently qualify for these picks: A's, Astros, Braves, Brewers, D-backs, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals and Twins. If the team that loses the player does not receive revenue sharing and did not exceed the luxury-tax salary threshold the previous season, its compensatory pick will come after Competitive Balance Round B. The value of the player's contract doesn't matter in this case. The nine clubs that fall into this category are the Angels, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Mets, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox and White Sox. Source: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-rules-explained/c-259650658

I've been saying this for a while. The Brewers will be looking at $20-25M+ increase in payroll in 2019. In addition to arby cases, there are raises for Yelich, Cain, Anderson, Jeffress and Thames. Not huge raises - but a million or two here and there adds up. Couple that with the fact that will won't have a lot of money coming off the books. As of now, Sogard and Gallardo are the only free agents after the season. We can, of course, non-tender some arby guys - but that only saves so much. And you still have to fill those rosters spots. It's gonna cost something. It's why I've been skeptical of an Arrieta signing. I'm guessing they can squeeze him into their salary structure this year - but I just don't know how high the Crew is willing to push the payroll in 2019 and beyond.

Welcome! Very well thought out first post. Look forward to hearing more from you.

I really like Santana, and I don't think he has peaked as an offensive performer. I can understand this - and personally, I don't know really know the answer. I will share this bit of info from a baseball source I know. He said that he has talked to quite a few people that feel that Santana's 2017 performance is probably his offensive ceiling. The biggest reason is that he simply strikes out too much. It is just going to limit his offensive upside. He'll never sniff .300 with 180 strikeouts in a year. I had the name Pat Burrell thrown out as a comp by another person I know. A right hander, Burrell hit 37 HR and a .920 OPS at age 24 with a 4.5 bWAR. He had only one other year with a WAR over 3.0 for the rest of his career. He hit 30+ HR four times, and took lots of walks, and was a terrible fielder. He generally ended up hitting around .260 or so, striking out 150 times - that sort of thing. He was a good - but not great - power bat. In Burrell's defense, I believe he suffered some injuries which really hurt him. But the idea is kind of the same. Big, right handed power guy, strikes out a ton, plays bad defense. Again, I really don't know Santana's ceiling (no one really does). But the team may feel that he isn't going to get much better. Couple that with mediocre (at best) defense - and moving him now might be the best thing (if the team finds someone that likes him).

I will say that I would take Arrieta at $20M more than I would Cobb (or Lynn) at $15M. I simply think Arrieta has the best chance to be a better pitcher than the other guys. I don't know if we will pay Arrieta that amount - but we'll see. I have to say that all of these guys scare me in some fashion. But let's be honest - what free agent pitcher wouldn't scare me? I mean, if it was Kershaw and he was getting $35M per year for eight years I'd be terrified about the later half of the deal. I'd be scared sinking that kind of money into ANY player for fear they'd get old or injured or whatever. Sometimes, we just have to make the leap. And I'll take Arrieta at $20M or so. I think he helps push us from having lots of solid players, to good players - guys that make a difference. Cobb or Lynn would - without question - help this club. But I want to push the envelope a bit if we are going to splurge. I just wonder if we can afford Arrieta.

That's why I'm curious about the exact details. Does it include deferred easy to obtain incentives. I dont think its actually 7/3. These are the deals that show how teams can bend cap. I'm watching this one. I'm guessing you're right. Perhaps some easily attained incentives in here.

ummmm Dude misspelled something. Or perhaps autocorrect got him. I doubt anyone couldn't figure out what he meant.

Nats. He’s better than Wieters I agree that Washington is a good fit for Lucroy. Other teams that might be interested could be Houston, the Mets, Boston, Seattle. But none of those are great fits. Each team has options - just might be they like Lucroy better. And he wouldn't necessarily get a full time gig. I am not clamoring to have Lucroy back, but I'd certainly take him over Vogt. A Lucroy/Pina platoon would be good.

Dbacks added Jarrad Dyson. Not a thumper, but still a good player. It was announced immediately after the Sox signed JD Martinez - so I wonder if the Dbacks were waiting on Martinez and essentially had a deal with Dyson ready to go once he signed elsewhere. I don't think it would totally put Arizona out of a deal for Santana, but it makes it less likely. AJ Pollack will be in CF, Peralta in RF. Then there's Yasmany Tomas and Dyson. Perhaps they are willing to move on from Tomas (who is owed $46M over the next three years) - in which case Santana would work well for them. Edit: After I wrote this the Dbacks were reportedly still interested in adding an OF - so speculate all you want about Santana to AZ.

Right, that speed late in games... Yep. Good defender, plays all three positions. Not going to play against lefties, but he's respectable against 3/4 of the league's pitchers.

Martinez gets $50M in the first two years - then has an opt out. That leaves 'only' $60M for years 3-5. I figured he'd get 5 years/$125M from someone - so the Red Sox did all right. Seems to be the case with the top FAs. They are coming in a bit under what many predicted. The tight market is hurting them - but not that much. $22M per year is still a massive amount of money.

Dyson is one of those guys who would be great to have around as a 4th OF. Obviously, we didn't need him. But he's a quality player.

I can't believe Watson got so little. Lefty. He's 32, so he's not that old. And he's put in 67+ appearances for six straight years. Never had an ERA above 3.38 during that time. His FIP has really risen the last two years, but he's outperformed his FIP every year. Just seems really low for a solid reliever.

Baltimore is a good place for Tillman. He was terrible last year, but he's had success there, and they really need the starting pitching. He should get a fair shake. The deal is for only $3M, but there are incentives, so if he rebounds, he can do okay and go back on the market next year, which isn't bad for him as he's only 29 years old. Tillman is a guy Milwaukee is shying away from - except as a back up plan. They want an established guy - and I can't blame them. I'm betting we make a move sooner or later. I think Stearns is just waiting for deal that lines up for this club.

It's interesting to see where things are landing. Pitchers are, on the whole, have done well (particularly relievers). Most pitchers have come close to their prediction - or exceeded it. Again, not every pitcher, but most of them. The ones who have under performed (under predicted?) waited longer than the other guys (Watson, Reed) - indicating available funds aren't there. It will be fascinating to see where Arrieta, Cobb, Lynn and Holland end up. Other than these top tier guys, all the pitchers have been signed. The hitters are seeing bigger drops. The guys at the top who have signed have done fine, but you're seeing some pretty steep discounts on other guys. Also, a lot of hitters are still available (of the players ranked outside of the Top 10, all are hitters except one), which makes me believe the offers aren't going to come close to meeting the predictions. I think we'll see a lot of one year deals - for modest amounts - struck in the next few weeks.

I wonder if Burgos has a future in the organization as a coach. I have heard from a baseball writer I know that the organization values Burgos' presence in the system. They think he provides a positive influence on many of the younger players. He's a smart guy, versatile and he speaks English and Spanish, which is helpful with the many Latin players in the system. He also provides a guy willing to bounce to wherever he is needed (AAA, AA, whatever) and eat up innings at Colorado Springs that the club is wary to put upon true prospects. For Burgos, it's not a bad gig. As a former major league player, he makes a minimum of around $90,000 at AAA. That's not a bad job. He gets to play baseball, build up his skills as a teacher and mentor, and make a decent living. Ultimately, I think you're right, that the team sees him as a coach down the road.

Braves have signed Moylan.

Cameron was hired as a research and development analyst. Sort of helping build a deeper analytics department for SD.

With Hosmer (a Boros client) signing, it might signal that other guys are getting ready to make a decision. The market is what it is at this point. Guys will eventually make a decision, and it seems like the longer a player waits, the lower his contract is going to become. I'm not putting it past some guys to wait things out - like Lohse did a few years ago - and see if a team gets desperate after an injury or something. But there's a lot of risk there. Teams seem to be setting budgets and sticking to them. The longer a player waits, the more the money dries up. More than likely they're stuck with a one year deal at a low price.

I think this was a pretty close to what was expected for Hosmer. I was thinking 6 years/$120M or 7 years/$140M. He gets a bit extra total value - but more years. That's an okay trade off for him. At worst, he's set until he's 35 years old. At best, with the opt out, he can reenter the market when he's 33 and get a better contract - in which case the value is $21M average for the five years. But he knows he's got that extra $39M cushion if his play deteriorates or he's injured. I'm personally not a big fan of the guy at $18-20M a year, but it's not my team (or my money).

I guess I'm still waiting to see if this is really Odorizzi for a low level prospect. If so, that's pretty stunning (at least in my opinion). If so, I guess teams opinions of Odorizzi really tanked over the past year. I never expected him to net a ton of value - but more than what they appear to have gotten.

I can't imagine they couldn't trade Dickerson for anything. Weird. The guy had a 2.7 WAR last year. 27 HR, .282 BA, .815 OPS. That's pretty good. You'd think someone would have traded something for that. Perhaps they have something set up.

I didn't realize Tito had played in Milwaukee. Turns out it was his last year in the majors. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francti01.shtml Dude hit .363 one year.

By the way, can you imagine how much money Lucroy has missed out on? A year ago people were saying 4-5 years at $16-18M per. He'll still make millions - but wow - he lost a ton of cash by having such a down year.