I know the trend in baseball is to youth, but my goodness the Brewers signed Aramis Ramirez to what turned out to be a 4 year $46 million deal when he was entering his age 34 season and he had a much less athletic body than does Cain. Granted wasn't as much money, but revenues in baseball are up considerably since 2012. Yeah the game has tilted toward youth, but 2012 is not that long ago and Cain has shown no signs he's anything but still in his prime. $15-16 million per year is far from outrageous for a player of his age and production. The Cubs are on the hook for $22 million a year for Heyward's age 32 and 33 seasons and he's not half the player Cain is right now. Who would you rather have the next 4 years, Heyward at $90 million (plus two more years at $44 million) or Cain even though he's older at $60-65 million total and no obligation after that? Cain's can be moved in that time too for a decent return barring a complete collapse. Just because Aramis Ramirez had a nice age 34 season doesn't mean Lorenzo Cain will. The Mets signed Jason Bay going into his age 31 season - they got 2.0 bWAR production TOTAL over the next four years for $66M. That does not mean I should think every age 31 player is going to suddenly stink. We can pick a hundred players and they will all be different - but as a whole, they show a trend. And the trend is that age 35 players aren't that good. As for Cain, yes, he is showing signs of slowing down. If you look at his defensive numbers (bWAR, fWAR, UZR), he has slipped every year for five consecutive years. He's still solid, but not great. He has offset that by becoming a better hitter. However, the odds are that he will regress. That's just the way it is. All that said, Lorenzo Cain has been a good player. And will likely continue to be a good player. He had a 5.3 bWAR and a 4.1 fWAR last year. Even if you say he regresses each year - and go with the lowest number (fWAR's 4.1 rating), you're talking about a guy that puts up 3.6, 3.1, 2.6 and 2.1 WAR. That's 11+ WAR - which is easily worth $60M (plus the lost draft pick). Ideally, you want to avoid that final year, but to be honest, if the club really wants him, and his price is reasonable (say 4-years/$56-60M) the extra year is much more palatable. I am concerned a bit about Cain's overall health. He's had some nagging injuries in his career - although last year he played more games than ever. Perhaps you can do a three-year deal with a fourth year vesting based on playing time.