Matt Breen

It's now the Top 10. That changed a few years ago. It used to be the Top 15.

Nice. How about this one:

Just for fun - let’s see how much ‘value’ Braun has. Last year, Braun’s WAR varied quite a bit depending on what site you looked at: Fangraphs: 3.2 fWAR Baseball Reference: 4.4 rWAR Baseball Propsectus: 3.9 WARP For the sake of our exercise, let’s just put Braun at 3.8 WAR for 2016 - an average of them all. Players in Braun’s age group regress by 0.5 WAR per year. So below are projected WAR, as well as the value of WAR for each year. In 2016 WAR was rated at $8M per WAR. But Fangraphs noted WAR rises in value (as salaries increase) about 5% a year. So I’ve taken Braun’s WAR and multiplied it by the value of WAR, increasing it $400k per year. Thus: 2017: 3.3 x $8.4M = $27.72 2018: 2.8 x $8.8M = $24.64 2019: 2.3 x $9.2M = $21.16 2020: 1.8 x $9.6M = $19.2 11 WAR = $92.72M (let's round up to $93M) Braun’s contract is for $76M, so: $93M - 76M = $17M of Surplus Value I assume the deferred money would be worth something - maybe a few million, so I’ll guess his ‘value’ is around $20M. If you look at an assessment of minor league prospects, a guy ranked in the 51-100 slot is generally valued around $15-20M (pitchers tend to be a little lower - around $15-17M, while hitters are a little more valuable at around $20-22M). Study of player value here: http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/ So, just looking at raw numbers, trading Braun for a prospect ranked in the 51-100 would be a fair trade. Again, that’s just looking at it as raw data. You have to look at other factors such as the injury history of both players. And there’s the assignment of WAR. I went with 3.8 as his 2016 number - if a team thinks Braun’s value is greater - or less - that will change his overall value. If you use Fangraphs 3.2 WAR for 2016 as the starting point, Ryan’s value ends up around $70M. Considering he’s owed $76M - that basically means his value is right around zero (especially if you consider the deferred money lowers the contract’s value). If you use the 4.4 WAR of baseball reference, Braun’s value is much higher - around $113M. So when you minus his $76M salary, his Surplus Value is around $40M (adding in a few million for the deferred money). That will get you hitter in the 26-50 range of prospects. Or a pitcher in the #11-25 range (again, hitters tend to be valued higher due to fewer injuries). So, depending on your favorite assessment tool, Braun should net us nothing (Fangraphs), or a prospect in the 51-100 range (Baseball Prospectus - as well as the average of the three WAR sites), or a #26-50 hitter or #11-25 pitcher (Baseball Reference). This is not meant to be any sort of statement on my part about Ryan’s value or what we should get for him - just a way to look at his trade value. I thought it was a fun exercise.

Deal is done. Chapman to Yankees; 5 years and $86M Not a bad deal. They trade him to the Cubs - get some good prospects, then just re-sign him. No draft pick lost either.

Nice interview of Tyler Thornburg (by former teammate Bruce Badenhop) on mlbtraderumors.com about the craziness of the trade: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/tyler-thornburg-trade-chat-burke-badenhop-red-sox-brewers-interview.html

I'm afraid to click on one of these 'spoiler' reveals and find a dick pic.

If you look at MLB Pipeline, here are the number of 50+ valued players in each system: Brewers - 20 Padres - 18 Yankees - 18 Athletics - 16 Rays - 15 Reds - 14 Braves - 14 Phillies - 14 Cubs - 13 Rockies - 12 Dodgers - 11 Astros - 11 Mets - 11 Cardinals - 11 White Sox - 10 Blue Jays - 10 Twins - 10 Mariners - 9 Rangers - 9 Pirates - 8 Indians - 7 Angels - 6 Tigers - 6 Nationals - 6 Dbacks - 5 Red Sox - 5 Giants - 5 Royals - 5 Orioles - 4 Marlins - 4 Obviously, this doesn't take into account really high end prospects who are 60 or whatever. Those guys are rare and very valuable. But it does show the immense depth we have of solid prospects.

I think you got it. Give someone a chance to rebuild their value - then deal them off if it works. Veteran relievers doing well at the deadline are always valuable.

The deal isn't just driven by analytics - it's value the player brings at the price he costs. 5 years of control at less than $40M is a great value. If Eaton was making $100M at that cost, that's a huge difference in what he's worth. No one is saying that Adam Eaton is going to be as valuable on the field over the next three years as Bryce Harper or Manny Machado or whomever. Value and performance are not the same thing. That said, Eaton's great defensive value surge definitely has to be taken into consideration. Defensive stats can have large fluctuations from year-to-year. Also, it is a huge price to pay for any player. #3 and #38 ranked players in the minors. Plus the top pick in last year's draft. Huge price. The White Sox are restocking the system overnight with some good players. Think if they deal Frazier, Abreu, Robertson, Melky, Lawrie, Shields and Quintana that they can move as well. They'll struggle in 2017-18 - but they could be looking good in a couple of years.

Here's a guess: - Sign Trumbo to play 1B. They lose their 2nd pick for that - not as hefty a price - Trade Blackmon, put Desmond in CF - CarGo only has two years on his contract left. After that, Shift Desmond over to a corner spot for the rest of his deal.

I think a lot of the angst for clubs with Braun is the four years he is under contract. Teams just seem really reluctant to take on long term deals - especially with older players. There's just too much of a fear that something can go wrong - and Braun's not been the healthiest of guys. I think this is especially true with National League clubs - as they can't slide a player over to DH like the AL clubs can do. That's just my thoughts. In the end, it only takes one team to want a player enough to pay the asking price. Perhaps LA will be that team.

It just seems like an odd signing. The team could be interesting. They have a lot of young pitching, and if things come together, you never know. But why not spend $5-6 on Carter and retain financial flexibility? If you're doing well this summer, you can make some trades and take on some salary. Instead they'll be signing retreads and end up struggling. It just killed the Brewers to keep bringing in guys like Overbay and Betancourt because our payroll was always pushed to the maximum. Oh well, better them than us.

I find this kind of a weird signing. It costs a lot of money and a 1st round pick. Colorado is certainly going to score a boatload of runs.

Ian Desmond signs with Colorado for 5 years and $70M. There is a sixth option year as well. The Rockies forfeit the 11th pick in the draft to sign Desmond. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/rockies-to-sign-ian-desmond.html The Rockies are loaded in the OF, so someone may be dealt. Or Desmond could slot in at 1B.

KC won 86, 89 and 95 games from 2013-2015 - plus 81 last year in a disappointing season. I think they are looking okay to put a winning club together this year - but after 2016, they are going to need an infusion of young talent. I'd say they did all right. A 3-5 year run of contention. Most teams would love that. I don't think the 'mortgaged' all that much. They dealt from pitching depth - Finnegan for Cueto and Manea for Zobrist - as well as 1B depth with Myers for Shields/Davis. Perhaps I've missed a big trade. Good teams have depth to deal from to fill holes. That's how it should be. I'd argue that the Royals built their club like they should, but screwed up with bad drafting. They had four Top Five picks from 2009-2013 that haven't reached the majors - or barely done anything - although they still have time. The developmental pipeline just dried up. Some of that is not their fault as you can't predict injuries. It was like the Brewers in the late 2000s. We had a nice core of players, but drafted badly and could never supplement that core very well. It lead to some good teams - but teams that lacked depth.

Regarding the Red Sox, they also have Sandoval. He looks like a different guy:

Scooter doesn't have the arm strength for SS or 3B. Or the range to play CF. Could he play LF? Probably. But that's a pretty weak bat for LF.

Dave Cameron at Fangraphs nailed this one pretty head on: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/finding-a-fair-price-for-chris-sale/ Using Fangraphs values, he called Moncada and Kopech or Benintendi and Devers in exchange for Sale. It's a great return for the White Sox - but Sale is a great player with three years of control at a reasonable price tag.

2017 Milwaukee Brewers (thus far) C - Maldonado/Susac/Pina (pick 2) 1B - Thames 2B - Villar SS - Arcia 3B - Shaw INF - Perez INF - Rivera? LF - Braun CF - Broxton RF - Santana OF - Kirk N. OF - Reed? or someone else SP - Anderson, Peralta, Nelson, Davies, Garza, Guerra RP - Knebel (CL), Barnes, Torres, Marinez, Cravy, Blazek, Scahill (L), Suter (L) Not all the pitchers will make the club, but there are bound to be injuries. Of course, if Braun is traded, it opens up the door for a lot of other stuff to happen.

Yeh, Shaw has generally graded out pretty solid as a 3B - maybe even a little above average.

Shaw hit .847 OPS at Fenway, and a .661 OPS on the road for his career.

Pretty funny seeing some of the forum replies how they want Dombrowski's head on a plate, doesn't seem like they gave up the farm by any means, none of their top prospects came over for one of the best relievers in the game for 3 years control, not sure why they are so upset. One guy at Sons of Sam Horn called the trade 'insanity' and said Thornburg would be competing for the 10th or 11th position on their staff. Just hilarious.

I think the 'underwhelming' feeling that people may be having is that there is no potential elite player coming back for Tyler. My biggest issue is who is the real Travis Shaw. As Briggs pointed out, he was never that good in the minors, and he was pretty awful in the second half of 2016. He doesn't walk that much, strikes out quite a bit. If he can hit .260-.270 with 15-20 HR with solid defense, that's pretty good. But if he's ends up hitting .240 with a .300 OBP, it's pretty weak. Haven't really seen Shaw play, so I don't know that much about him. Strictly going to stats and some scouting reports, which are nothing special.

Shaw is a FA in 2022, so essentially a prospect with almost a full year of MLB experience, but yeah, wonder if it wasn't Shaw if Kopesch and Pennington or Dubon could have gotten the deal done. I don't think there was any way Boston was dealing Kopesch. He's going to be a Top 50 guy. He's far more valuable than Shaw.

I think it's basically track record. Tyler has had one great season (but it was a heck of a season). I think if we had held onto Tyler for another 1/2 season - and he did great - he could have gotten a huge return at the trade deadline. But I don't blame the team for making the move now. Relievers are volatile. If Thornburg had tossed a 4.00 ERA in 2017, we'd be blaming ourselves for not trading him earlier.