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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. Matt Breen
    Personally, I say no. But every time this question is asked, you have to ask 'How much money (if anything) are the Brewers willing to include in a trade?" Your return is going to be massively different if you send them $1M as opposed to $40M. Alvarez has top of the rotation potential. DeLeon is ready for the majors, but doesn't have quite the upside - more mid-rotation (which is still pretty sweet). I'm skeptical of the Dodgers trading a guy they can insert into the rotation this year (DeLeon) or a guy they think has all star potential (Alvarez - who they forked over $16M for just a year ago) - unless it's for someone like Chris Sale. I should add that I am more skeptical than some people about Braun's value due to his advancing age, recent history of injuries and his PED stuff. It's not that I don't think Braun has value, I just think it makes people much more wary than if you have someone without those issues. But that's just me. It only takes one team to fall in love with a player. So you never know. Honestly, the guy I really like in the Dodgers system is Walker Buehler. He had the potential to be the top pick in the 2015 draft, but he hurt his elbow and needed TJ surgery. Dodgers took him late in the 1st round of 2015. He would have been a perfect buy low guy. But he was supposedly throwing near 100 when he finally debuted this past August. I bet he starts popping up on Top 100 lists even though he's only pitched a few innings as a pro.
  2. Matt Breen
    Spot on. He was still hitting around 12-15HR when spraying it - there's nothing wrong with that when hitting 320 Yeah, I don't know what has changed (if anything) with Phillips since Milwaukee acquired him. Perhaps it's just more advanced pitching. Or he's just selling out for more power. The amount of walks he took last year really shot up - maybe he's adopted an ultra patient approach - trying to work counts deep, that sort of thing. It's getting him walks - but a lot of strikeouts as well. Maybe it's a little of everything. I just look at his A ball numbers and wonder what happened. Tons of doubles and triples. He had his HRs, but not a ton of them. Add in good speed and a great arm - that's an exciting player. I don't know. I'm certainly not an expert at hitting, so watching video doesn't do a lot for me. But maybe some people with better judgement can see differences between his swing two years ago and today. I'd find that interesting.
  3. Matt Breen
    He's literally the only FA that makes sense. I'd kick the tires to see if the years/money made sense (no reason to overpay for anyone) while also discussing trades for young, blocked 3b's. I'd be ok with this signing as 2 of the past 3yrs he's been good enough vs RHP. But I'd prefer to trade for a young 3b as if he becomes even an average regular then he'll have better trade value. Valbuena wouldn't be the worst signing (especially if you keep to a two-year deal at a reasonable price), but I hope we can find someone like we did with Broxton and Villar - a younger guy who we can give a chance. But that's easier said than done. But it's not like we have anyone in the minors ready to play. And the club seems to want Perez in a utility role (he could start at 3B vs lefties if they had Valbuena). Valbuena - a lefty with decent power - would make sense if the club dealt Scooter. His defense is okay. He's played a bit of 1B (and even 2B) the last few years. I'm not sure how he grades out at 1B - but he probably would be fine - although he's not a big target. Valbuena is pretty much a platoon bat. He did okay against lefties last year - but in the rest of his career he's been pretty awful. Again, I can see the appeal, and I'd be okay with the move, but it's not like I'd be doing backflips over signing the guy. I will add this - we could potentially hit a lot of HRs next year (and strikeout a ton as well).
  4. Matt Breen
    I'm kind of amazed at this. Maybe they just think he's a tweak away from 'figuring it all out' or something. I don't know.
  5. Matt Breen
    As I have said multiple times I don't think this thread is about how we have to go sign one in FA. We all know we could build an elite rotation without signing a single free agent. We all know there are many way to get an ace without signing one in FA. The question was more when all those options fail is there a possibility. To this question - if the Brewers have the chance to sign an ace in free agency - I say, "No, it won't happen." It's just too expensive. Boston paid David Price $30M a year. Greinke got nearly $35M a year. Those were for 7 and 6 years, if I recall correctly. Milwaukee just won't do that. Boston can make that move for Price, but we can't suck up 1/3 or a 1/4 of our payroll on one guy for that long of a time frame. The club might make a lesser move in free agency - go for a solid #3 or something if they feel they need it. I see them taking a risk like the Cubs did with Lackey - 2-years at $18M a year. That's something that won't hamstring the team for half a decade. I just doubt they ever splurge on an ace for those numbers and those years.
  6. Matt Breen
    How much velocity did Doug Jones have? I recall he had a rather dominant run as a closer, despite being a "soft tosser." 303 career saves over 16 years, including a very good run from 1988 through 1997 bear out that soft tosser doesn't rule someone out as a closer. There are always exceptions to the rule. But suggesting a guy is the exception to the rule (before he actually is the exception to the rule) is usually a really bad way determine a guy's future value.
  7. Matt Breen
    I don't understand this. Could you explain why? It just seems really weird to arbitrarily want something like this. I mean, is it because Estrada did well after the trade? I guess I'd argue Lind did well too. And it's not like we would have gotten to keep Estrada. He was a free agent after the 2015 season. Of course, we could have resigned him at that time.
  8. Matt Breen
    MLB Pipeline notes on Rios: He has the arm strength for the hot corner, but he lacks quickness and range and has been error-prone early in his pro career. He likely will become a full-time first baseman in the future. Not saying he wouldn't do okay - just one perspective.
  9. Matt Breen
    I really don't understand why some people are down on Brinson or dislike him as a prospect. He has all the tools you could ask for. Good power, average, OBP, speed, and an elite glove. Nothing not to like. I think he'll have the kind of quality defense in CF that we hope to have at SS with Arcia, only with a better bat. No shame in Brinson as your top organizational prospect. I think it's the mediocre numbers at AA last season that worry some. And it's not just the .237 batting average. It's the weak walk rate (5.0% at AA last year - even worse - 2.2% at AAA) and high K rate (about 20% last year, and higher for his career). His numbers are sort of all over the place in the minors - brilliant one year, mediocre the next. Personally, I love the guy. It looks like a lot of his struggles related to some injuries that nagged him last year - but I love his talent. My biggest worries are all the injuries he's had. He just never seems to stay 100% healthy.
  10. Matt Breen
    Wily was on target to be a free agent after the 2018 season, but the time in minors this year appears to have delayed it a year. Some sites, like baseball-reference.com, just haven't updated service times and likely free agent status. Thus you are seeing the earlier date for free agency some places.
  11. Matt Breen
    Oh Rangers...wow that trade looked dumb at the time and it was indeed dumb in the end. Somehow ended up being worse than I envisioned. Actually, didn't the Rangers luck out? Since Prince can't play anymore, insurance is probably paying out most of his contract. Prince's contract is paid out as follows (annually from 2017-2020): $9M from Texas $6M from Detroit $9M from insurance So the Rangers paid Prince $54M over the last three years (2014-16), plus will add in $36M over the next four years. That totals $90M for at total of 0.3 bWAR.
  12. Matt Breen
    This is pretty spot on. Liriano has no options left. If we kept him, we'd likely have to keep him in majors. After missing a full season, it's unlikely we'd want to do that. I'm not saying I wouldn't want the guy, but it's one of those things. You can keep everyone.
  13. Matt Breen
    Yikes. 7 hours and 10 minutes for one batter. Brutal.
  14. Matt Breen
    ? Longenhagen as always struck me as pretty knowledgeable. As for "low level blogger" - he's a featured writer for one of the most well-known baseball websites out there, and used to write for ESPN to boot. I think Longenhagen does a pretty nice job. Unlike lots of people, he actually goes and scouts the players. As to the answers, it's the format of a chat - quick hits - it's not the time for a lot of analysis. You take what you get. I'm also happy he takes questions about Brewer players. So many times you read a chat transcript and it's the same questions about Boston or Yankee or whatever big market prospects.
  15. Matt Breen
    Lots of Brewer questions in Fangraphs' Eric Longenhagen chat today: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-meets-the-wolfman/ --- Q: What’s the ceiling for a guy like Brandon Woodruff? Eric A Longenhagen: Probably a #3 ---- Q: Can you explain the struggles that Brett Phillips has had at the plate this year, and has this tarnished his prospect status? Eric A Longenhagen: Excessively deep load, noisy feet that leave no margin for error, timing-wise. Still has power , can still run, I just don’t think he’ll hit. --- Q: Kodi Medeiros, Montee Harrison or Jake Gatewood…which of these three Brewer draft picks from a couple of years ago has the best chance to still live up to their high ceiling? Eric A Longenhagen: Harrison, his tools are by far the most insane of that grouping. --- Q: What’s been your impression of Isan Diaz thus far in the AFL? I know he’s one of the younger guys there, but has he held his own? Eric A Longenhagen: Big bat speed and power, can run, will strike out. Top 100 guy for me. ---- Q: Were you able to see Lucas Erceg this fall in instructs? If so, what’s his ceiling? Eric A Longenhagen: I was. He could be an above average regular. Great defense, 7 arm, plus power potential. He’s good. Eric A Longenhagen: Was actually playing some SS too but I don’t think that will hold. ---- Q: Scouting report on Lewis Brinson? Does he have the tools there to potentially turn into a star player at the MLB level if he lives up to them? Eric A Longenhagen: Indeed. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/eric-longenhagen-prospects-chat-meets-the-wolfman/
  16. Matt Breen
    I've been thinking about the same thing. Like there's a dozen guys that are on their way. The only problem is, don't really have that TOR SP. A bunch of guys you hope turn out like Kyle Hendriks did for the Cubs. Because I swear, when he came up, there was less props being given to him than what Zach Davies had. Please Lord, let the Brewers Organization luck in to one of these pitching prospects having Kyle Hendriks results at the ML level! Developing a top of the rotation guy can certainly entail a little luck. Many very highly rated guys are your top pitchers - Kershaw, Hamels, Price, Verlander, etc., etc. But guys like Hendriks, Kluber, Keuchel - not to 20 prospect types. That is why you need so many pitching prospects. As noted, so many guys just flame out or get hurt. The more interesting arms you have, the better chance to find the diamond in the rough.
  17. Matt Breen
    I guess in determining Votto's value, we can ask a couple of questions: If Joey Votto was a free agent this off season, with no compensation attached, would he be able to get a 7-year deal worth $172M (plus a team option for $20M with a $7M buyout)? Such a contract would take Votto through his age 39 season (2023). He turns 40 in September of the final year of the deal. If someone would sign him to this kind of deal - I think then he is theoretically tradable (without Cincy kicking in a bunch of money). If no one would sign him to this contract, then what kind of contract would he be worth? 6-years/$150M? 5 Years/$125M? I ask, because then that might be a good way to value what the Reds need to kick back. So if 6-years/$150M is Votto's top value, that means Cincy needs to send back $20-25M to facilitate the trade. More if they want back prospects. It doesn't have to be money the Reds send back. They can take on other team's contracts as well - but you get the idea. I guess that, in the end, what would Votta get on the free agent market?
  18. Matt Breen
    This kind of thing is not really necessary. Some people may take this as insulting - and there's really no need for it. Thank you.
  19. Matt Breen
    That was a hard one. I just looked at Monte's production. It just hasn't been there. Not that Clark was great or anything. It just seems Harrison has more to learn. There are always these kinds of decisions. I didn't let myself get too caught up in it.
  20. Matt Breen
    Ryan Cordell is not an infielder. The Rangers gave him a try in the infield and he was awful. I don't know why people keep bringing him up as a potential infielder.
  21. Matt Breen
    I thought rookie status only ended with 130 ABs or 50 IP in a season... The numbers are cumulative. Suter has 21.2 innings pitched thus far. Add in another 29, and he'll hit 50+ IPs, and he's no longer a rookie. Tyler Cravy had this same thing happen last year - 42.2 IP in 2015, 28.1 IP in 2016. He graduated off the list once he cracked the 50 total innings pitched mark. Same goes for hitters. 130 ABs is a cumulative number.
  22. Matt Breen
    Man, I'm getting sloppy. Demi had 72 points.
  23. Matt Breen
    How about by giving up 2 HR in one game to a catcher who hit .183 on the season.
  24. Matt Breen
    I figured this one out. I made an error entering the results on the spreadsheet. I gave Jorge Ortega your #22 vote, and skipped Lirano altogether. This does cause Ortega to get just one single vote - which gets him on the Mr. Irrelevant listing. Sorry for the error - and thanks for the catch.
  25. Matt Breen
    I'm guessing autocorrect. For all it's wonderfulness, it can be a pain in the butt. Thanks.
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