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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. Matt Breen
    I'd rather keep with Cravy. The guy has struggled when asked to start, but done pretty well in relief. He's had a 2.18 ERA as a reliever (33 IP) vs a 6.09 ERA as a starter (38 IP). Obviously, small sample sizes.
  2. Matt Breen
    Never convince yourself that you are one guy (or two or whatever) away from being a contender. It makes a team make moves like give Zack Greinke $34+M annually, and unload the farm for Shelby Miller. Stay the course is the smart move. If you're 50-40 - the course is pretty solid and trust in what you have built. All that said, I don't see a problem making a move if it's not draining too much talent. Ryan Cordell? Sure, I'm comfortable giving away him. But if it's Hader, Brinson and more for Quintana or whomever - then no. Stay the course. Also, one area the Brewers can make a move without compromising their farm system is by adding salary - which we have the luxury of doing right now. I'm not saying Zack Grienke level salary, but at times you have teams with a guy with one or two years left on his contract, and a club is happy to unload him for little or nothing as long as you take the contract (or a part of it). Maintaining financial flexibility should be a key component of the team's strategy to become a winner. I also think that teams get obsessed with big moves and forget about the little ones. One example of a good, under the trade move, was Milwaukee made acquiring Jerry Hairston Jr back in 2011. His versatility was really welcome - and he saved the 3B position from the black hole that was Casey McGehee.
  3. Matt Breen
    A lot of hype for Keon of late. Let's just hope he can sustain what he started last year.
  4. Matt Breen
    Another thing I want to point out about a Villar extension is the timing he would actually become a free agent. First, I am guessing (perhaps incorrectly) that in addition to the $20M he would earn from 2018-2020, the club proposed that there be one or two years of team options. That's generally the trade off for an extension - the player gets guaranteed money, and the team gets an extra year or two of control. Villar is set to be a free agent in 2021 - his age 30 season. If there are two years of options on a deal he signs now, he delays free agency until his age 32 season. Odds are that Villar's production is going to better at age 29 than age 31. And any contract he signs before his age 30 season is likely to be bigger and better - in years and in numbers - than one that he signs before his age 32 season. Obviously, there are no guarantees - especially when injuries get factored in.
  5. Matt Breen
    I generally agree with this. We are still in a 'let's figure out what we have' with Broxton and Santana. Let them play 1/2 a season and see how they do. Let Brinson rake at AAA - if he does, we have a great problem of figuring out what to do with all our players. Obviously, and injury or trade could change things sooner - even before opening day. But for now, let the process play out. I'm just loving the idea of an outfield with Brinson and Broxton. Then down the road, you add in Ray. That would be one of the best defensive outfields in baseball. But for now, let's just hope these guys keep developing with the bat.
  6. Matt Breen
    I think most people were hoping even Mike Cameron himself would turn out to be more than Mike Cameron during his career. I loved Mike Cameron.
  7. Matt Breen
    I would be there was at least a year or two of club options with the $20M guarantee. Otherwise, there's really not a lot of reason for Milwaukee to lock up a guy only through his arby years. Understanding your costs is nice, but there has to be some more reward for the club if they are putting together an extension this early for the guy.
  8. Matt Breen
    I thought the rule was that if you throw your glove at a ball it an automatic triple, or was that during BP? Now I have to look that up. Totally hypothetically speaking, if this occurred with 2 outs and nobody on in the 9th in a tie game, and the ball was going to be a HR, 10 feet over the outfielders' head, and he could time his throw right and keep it in play, couldn't he potentially save the game this way and prevent a walkoff? Nope. Won't work. It's an HR. Award: Advancement to Home Base (Four Base Award Maximum) 7.05(a): Dead. A fair ball leaves the playing field in flight or a ball with similar trajectory is deflected by a fielder's equipment, apparel or thrown gear. Also known as a home run. So I'm guessing the umpires would have to rule that the trajectory of the ball was going to leave the playing field - and would thus award the batter the HR.
  9. Matt Breen
    This is really overvaluing his arby year values - at least up front. Manny Machado got $5M in his first year of arby. Dallas Keuchel got $7.2M after winning the Cy Young award. If he repeats his 2016 performance, you might see $4.0-4.5M price in his first year. Do it again - perhaps $8-9M in his second year of arby. Manny Machado, one of the best players in baseball, is on pace to to probably make around $32-34M in his three arby years ($5M in 2016, $11.5M in 2017, then probably $16-17M next year (assuming nothing bad happens, and he keeps playing great). Villar can still make a lot. If he keeps playing like 2016, he probably gets around $24-25M (roughly three years at $4M, $8M, $12M).
  10. Matt Breen
    $20M sounds like it would take him through arby years. Something like: $1M signing bonus (gets a little extra cash up front) 2017: $1M 2018: $3M 2019: $6M 2020: $9M 2021 and beyond: team option(s) Again, just a guess on what something like a $20M deal would look like. Those were the guarantees - then there was a team option a year or two, which was not part of the reported $20M.
  11. Matt Breen
    We can come up with a hundred names of people who wish they had taken extensions - and those that wish they hadn't. To me, it's about the person. Some people thrive on the year-to-year challenge. Others hate the pressure - and just want to have their life figured out for a while.
  12. Matt Breen
    Will Smith has been shut down for a week dealing with inflammation in his elbow. An MRI was negative - so no major issues (that they can tell). https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/nl-notes-smith-wieters-drew-franco.html
  13. Matt Breen
    I'm pretty excited that the international signings have a cap. It was always just kind of depressing seeing the Yankees or Red Sox or Cubs or whomever sign 10 top guys while we got one or two (if even that).
  14. Matt Breen
    Done deal. 2 years, $21M. $10.5M each year. Wieters can opt out after the first year. $5M of his 2017 salary is deferred until 2021. EDIT: updated the terms of the contract.
  15. Matt Breen
    This is a really good summary of pay that was put together a few years ago: http://www.sportslawblogger.com/baseball/salary-information/minor-league-salary/ Again, this is a couple of years old, so prices have probably gone up a bit. Also, the last line in the article - "Minor league salary must be at least 60% of the player’s combined minor league and Major League salary in the preceding season" - that means some of the veteran guys - especially guys who had been in the majors the year before - make some pretty good money - 200-300k for some guys.
  16. Matt Breen
    How about that!
  17. Matt Breen
    that was pretty fun. thanks.
  18. Matt Breen
    Confirmed that Reyes will have TJ surgery. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/02/alex-reyes-to-undergo-tommy-john-surgery.html
  19. Matt Breen
    Nice interview with Prince Fielder. He's doing his own cooking show - "Fielders Choice" on Hulu and Netflix - this spring. He sounds like he's doing pretty good - which I'm happy to hear. I didn't realize that he and his dad ended up with the exact same number of HRs - 319. Kinda weird. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18654365/former-texas-rangers-slugger-prince-fielder-opens-neck-injury-ended-baseball-career
  20. Matt Breen
    Archer is already a pretty amazing pitcher - and everyone knows it. The ERA was inflated last year and he had all those loses, but most everyone can point to his peripherals and see a guy who is really good. As noted, teams have made some big offers for the guy already - and he hasn't been moved. I think it was Fangraphs that did an article basically showing he was just as valuable as Sale. Again - that's saying he has more value than Sale - essentially because he's controlled for five years instead of four (which is what Sale's contract is for). If the Rays do poorly this year, look for Archer to be a huge trade chip this summer - or next off season - assuming the Rays go into a semi-rebuild mode.
  21. Matt Breen
    If he continues to linger on the market, the club could give offer him a low deal with incentives - say $5M plus playing time incentives. If he does great, the club could look to move him at the deadline (in which case we wouldn't be responsible for a lot of the playing time incentives). If he plays poorly, they could simply release him or limit him playing time. I'm generally not a big fan of adding a guy in the hopes of flipping him later. It's great in theory, but it seems that it rarely works out like people hope. A lot really just depends on the what the team things of Susac and Bandy and so forth. Obviously, if you have Wieters those guys won't get as much playing time (and one will end up in the minors). I honestly don't see Wieters as a long term part of this team - so I'd be skeptical. To me, I'd say we let our young guys have a chance - but then I don't know how good these guys are in the first place. One note - Wieters can't be given a qualifying offer. In the new CBA, a player can't receive a qualifying offer more than once in his career.
  22. Matt Breen
    I guess we'll see what happens. The idea is that pitchers will be forced to throw strikes if they want to avoid walking guys - thus the pitches will be more hittable. That's the theory. I wouldn't be surprised to see more walks and more hits - but who knows. I honestly don't like the strike zone now. It's almost like players have to pull out their five iron the strikes are so low.
  23. Matt Breen
    Major League Baseball is proposing a change in the strike zone. The proposal would raise the lower part of the strike zone to the top of the hitter's knees - it currently is defined as "the hollow beneath the kneecap." Umpires have been calling pitches below the knees over the past few years, so this would - assuming it's enforced - raise the zone by an estimated 2 inches. The other proposal would be to just signal an intentional walk - and the batter would just head to first base instead of watching four pitches lobbed out of the hitter's reach. All changes must be approved by the players - so this is just a starting process. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/18631714/mlb-proposes-scrapping-intentional-walk-raising-strike-zone
  24. Matt Breen
    I think the biggest cautionary tale with really early extensions is Jon Singleton. The Astros gave him $10M over five years before he even reached the majors. He proceeded to hit .168 and struck out 134 times on 310 ABs. The contract had three option years that could have upped the value to $30M. Singleton was a good - not great prospect. This isn't a guy with the talent of Longoria or Braun. I think that is the biggest thing with these early extensions - you don't bet on guys who aren't sure things (or as close to sure things as you can get). I think the general rule of thumb is to try and lock up elite talent as early as possible - buying an extra year or two of service time. Guys who fall in this category are Lindor or Seager types. With regard to other players, you're probably smart to let them prove themselves for an extended period - 2-3 years - then approach them about a longer deal if you want. I'm wary of players who come to the big leagues and do far better than expected. You don't want to dish out an extension based on three months of good play or something like that (unless they are elite talent and you expected that kind of performance). If Jimmy Nelson had pitched well in 2016, he'd probably be an ideal guy to sign to an extension. Or if Peralta had done well in 2015 - same thing. Neither was a super high prospect or an elite talent - and it was wise to wait and see how they developed before signing them to a long term deal.
  25. Matt Breen
    I don't think there's anyone you lock up at this time. Too many question marks. I could see Villar if you believed his 2016 was his true self. But there are signs that some regression is in order. Plus, you want to see him improve his defense. Broxton, Santana, Arcia, Shaw, Perez, Susac, Bandy, Knebel, Anderson - they either need to show they are long term pieces - or they just aren't that good. None of these guys combine talent and production that warrant a long term investment. Guerra is too old to sign to a long term deal - even if he keeps pitching well. We control him through his mid-30s already. No issue there. Peralta, Nelson - way to volatile. Peralta could be a DFA if he tanks this year. The one guy on the team that I see as being a solid, everyday player is Davies. I don't see a great player - but a solid guy. That said, he's not a great player - and I don't think he ever will be. No point in locking in a good - but not great - player for extra years.
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