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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. I should have put these in blue. A big drinking place would probably be a bad idea. The AAA park in the parking lot is just silly. And no way the league lets a casino be that closely associated with the club.
  2. Outside the box options: - A giant brewery and tap room attached to the park. We truly would be 'the Brewers'. - An entirely new park right next to Miller Park that would serve as our AAA field going forward. - Casino and hotel attached to the stadium.
  3. All the comparisons and arguing aside, Braun was one of five Brewer position players age 24-26 in 2008. Braun - Still with Milwaukee and doing well Fielder - Out of baseball at age 32 due to neck injury. Hardy - Been limited by injuries this past year. 2015 was bad, but has had an okay 2016 when healthy. Weeks - Last season as a starter was age 29. Has hung around with limited success the last few years, still playing. Hart - Retired. Done at age 30 due to knee injuries. Managed to hang around a few more years, but played poorly. You can even say that 28 year old Bill Hall was washed up by the 2008 season (Fangraphs puts his WAR at 0.7, -0.5, 0.4, -1.5 and 0.0 from 2008-12). But Hall was never really part of that young core of guys that came up together. He had come a little earlier. Still, it's interesting to look at things. Fielder, Hart, Hall, Weeks - all really done as good players by 30 (31 for Fielder). Hardy has done well, his glove sustaining him even when he struggled at times with his bat. Specific injuries are the common theme. Fielder and Hart had injuries that really limited them. Weeks was never the same after screwing up his ankle. I think he lost a little of his speed, and it really limited him on defense (which was limited already). Even Hardy can point specifically to his back injury as limiting him at times - but he's been able to still be effective (for the most part). I want to stress that I don't think this means this is Braun's fate. It was just something I noticed and thought I'd mention. This group had so much promise - tough to see guys fade.
  4. Yeah! Take that you Braun Haters! I don't want to talk to you no more, you empty-headed animal food trough wiper! I fart in your general direction! Your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries!
  5. Carlos Gomez has an .899 OPS in 25 games since joining the Rangers. 87 ABs, 4 doubles, 6 HR, .276 BA, .370 OBP, .899 OPS. His overall numbers (.664 OPS) still aren't good, but hopefully it lands him in a good place next year so he can rebuild his value. Rangers have put him in the leadoff spot lately, and he's doing really well. The Rangers manager said the move calmed Gomez down - he's more focused when he knows his job is to get on base.
  6. I appreciate the work to look at this from a more logical fashion. I think the simple conclusion is that players - as a whole - will decline as they age from 33-36 (the years of Braun's contract remaining). As a whole is so important. There will always be deviations from the mean. In fact, with only 10 subjects, nobody may end up being 'average'. Guys will be lower and higher - but in the end we can make an average. A couple of things to consider regarding this view: 1) As noted, ten subjects is not a huge number (not small either). Ideally the numbers would be higher to help make a more sound conclusion. But I think there have been studies like this. Not specifically about Braun, but aging and performance in general - and they come to this general conclusion. 2) A lot of the guys on the list were around in the PED era of the 2000s. While PEDs don't necessarily improve a person's performance, they can really make a difference in keeping a player healthy (and getting them healthy when they are not). None of the guys on this list are Canseco-type PED guys - but it doesn't mean they didn't use something. Of course, it doesn't mean Braun won't use something to help him going forward. 3) As someone noted, these guys might be similar to Braun stat wise, but it's health factors that are probably relevant. Understanding how guys with specific health issues - like a back problem such as Braun's - are probably more relevant. The problem is a 'back' problem is so generic. There are a hundred different ways to have a back problem. It's not like TJ surgery. It's easy to track data on a specific surgery like that. Again, the general rule is that players' performance (as a whole) will fade during this age frame (33-36). To try and determine who will age poorly and who will not is a whole different matter. All very interesting. Thanks for taking the time.
  7. The hand issue is not insignificant either. It seems okay now, but the treatment was new. Who knows there is an issue a year from now or three or never.
  8. I think we'd be nuts to consider signing any top tier free agents this year. We still have too much uncertainty. There's no point in adding a bat - even a good bat - when we might be lucky to reach .500. It's still time to let the young guys play. After next season, you can assess where the team is at, and if we see ourselves in the playoff mix in 2018, then you can consider adding someone if needed. But even then, this team should really avoid long term commitments with older players.
  9. Isan Diaz has been named our 2016 Minor League Player of the Year. Brandon Woodruff takes home the Pitcher of the Year honors.
  10. I also want to add that having a CFer end up in RF or LF isn't necessarily a bad thing. I feel like Milwaukee has neglected defense at times, and I would love to see how our OFs turn out and how they improve our team from a defensive standpoint. Phillips, Brinson, Broxton, Ray, Clark - those are some athletic OFs who's bats will (hopefully) play at any OF position.
  11. When we get stuck with the minor league team on the moon we'll be begging for High Desert and Colorado Springs.
  12. You're right, it is a ridiculous comparison because Braun is a much better athlete and is in much better shape than Ortiz (Braun has almost as many SBs this year as Ortiz has in his entire career). Braun will age better than Ortiz, allowing him to be a position player much longer. Braun's top comparisons through age 31 are Larry Walker and Lance Berkman, both of whom played almost exclusively in the NL and were productive into their mid-late 30's. Injuries caught up to Walker at age 37, but he still posted a 154(!) OPS+ at age 37 and a 130 OPS+ at age 38. (Yes, he played in Denver, but he had a road OPS+ of 109 at age 36 and his age 38 season was in STL). Injuries caught up to Berkman at age 36, but still posted a 164 OPS+ at age 35 for STL, a fairly pitcher-friendly park. So how about we use Walker and Berkman as examples of why he may not regress? How about not because it is ridiculous to draw conclusions like this. Braun will age well because (insert name of player) aged well. That makes as much sense as 'Braun will age poorly because (insert player's name) aged poorly.'
  13. Kinda weird that 'team friendly' is $25M a year.
  14. I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers are trying to figure out a way to get Dillard onto their media team in the future - maybe even with the idea of him working radio (replacement for Uecker?). As a major league veteran, he makes a decent salary even in the minors (I think around $80,000 is the minimum for someone like him). But I wouldn't be surprised if the Crew have paid him well so they can keep him in the fold. Plus he can take on some innings in Colorado Springs (I don't think it's a surprise that more than 3/4 of his work came in Colorado Springs). He's just is there to eat up some of those tough innings. The real prospects then get work on the road.
  15. Brewers team ERA (4.12) is right at league average (4.15). Same with OPS (Brewer: .733 vs NL at .734). Unfortunately, league average OPS doesn't quite translate into league average runs scored. While we have above average HRs, we lag in runs and batting average. We are 2nd most in the league in walks, which helps our OBP (6th in the NL). We lead the league in SBs by a mile, and our SB% is 2nd in the league. Defense appears to really be killing this team. We have the most errors in all of baseball. Fangraphs puts our defense as the 5th worst rated in the league. Obviously, we won't have Lucroy, Smith and Jeffress next year, but I think there's room to grow.
  16. We'll be better than this. 4th place will be right. Should get this one. DOAH! Double DOAH! 1-4. Like a mediocre day at the plate. Not very good. Got Hill right - which was not hard. Cecchini ain't happening. Garza is actually doing okay.
  17. All the rules and requirements aside, it would be nice if the Brewers invested in a team in Madison. The Mallards average 6000+ a game (although they don't play games in April/May). Colorado Springs averaged 4700 in 2015, so we could probably match that.
  18. Ken Rosenthal said that the Cardinals are unlikely to lose draft picks due to the Houston database hacking incident. The reason is that any lose of draft picks would have to be negotiated with the Players Union since that element is part of the collective bargaining agreement. The union is not going to want draft picks forfeited - and the associated draft pool money - as that's less money for their members. He said a fine is the likely thing. I believe the most the league can fine a club is $2M. http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/video?vid=767540291650
  19. I think Puig has value, and he could regain more - but I'm skeptical. He's shown little real dedication to getting better - coming to camp out of shape, being late for practice, etc. He's a guy that I would worry isn't dedicated to the game and will therefore continue to fall short of his potential. It doesn't mean he won't put up okay numbers, but guys living on pure talent only go so far. The best thing might be that a move to Milwaukee would get him in the butt and get him on a better path. That's the organization's job to figure him out - but again, I'm skeptical. I'm more inclined to think he'll be happy with his millions and enjoy life - even if he isn't a star anymore. The other thing is that the club seems to be trying to create a good environment, and you worry about a guy like Puig. I wold hope they would jettison the guy if he became a problem.
  20. He did that with Broxton for a while as well. Remember everyone complaining about Kirk N playing all the time? Perhaps he's just trying to get the younger guys who have been struggling into a position to succeed in some fashion. Then they can build on that success. It's really something that probably works best on a case-by-case basis. It's probably a good strategy for some players, but not others. You just have to know the player and feel you understand what makes them tick and what will get them to respond.
  21. To me the big worry is that the effects of the break will linger. Like people say, he'll get good care, but you just want him healthy for next season.
  22. It'll be interesting with Kirk N. out as well (I read he'll miss at least a few games). That'll give Reed some playing time. Even if it's just 10 games or something, it's nice to get a look at him - and maybe show something to the major league staff. Reed potentially could be a back up OF next year - a little exposure now should help him (assuming he can play well).
  23. Wrists are tough things. The long layover is really nice. It will give it a lot of time to heal.
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