Matt Breen
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Everything posted by Matt Breen
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Nothing huge here, but Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says there is still buzz that the Brewers want to deal Lucory this spring: There’s still buzz in the scouting community that Lucroy could be moved in spring training. There are plenty of teams looking for a catcher, and Lucroy is the best available at the moment. The Brewers are exploring moving Lucroy for prospects. http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2016/02/27/criticism-analytics-shows-division-analysis/tNgGYvAwbAdPv1SaF6AddJ/story.html?event=event25 I imagine clubs are waiting to see how Luc does once games start up. If he looks good at that point, I bet something happens. Just my guess.
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I think there will be a lot of roster moves with this team before the season starts. I have a feeling that Stearns and the team are scouting a hundred guys just like these types. These are guys you can often times pick up for cheap - and now is the time to take risks on players like Bundy or whomever. -
Daniel Norris (AAA/MLB), Jeff Hoffman (AA), Jake Thompson (AA), and Sean Manaea (AA) were all top-100 pitching prospects traded last season. Not counting Josh Hader (AA) and others. Those guys got dealt for the likes of Price, Tulowitski, Hamels and Zobrist. Top pitching can be had - but it means you have to give up something pretty special. Teams are reluctant to give up good pitching prospects, but if Lucroy shows he's healthy, I imagine he's the guy that will fetch us one (or two).
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How about just 'playing really crappy'. Sorry if my example confused the point.
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It's possible, but unlikely. I suppose Santana could go into a massive funk during camp - strikeout 50% of the time or something like that. Combine that with other guys like Broxton/Nieuwenhuis/Liriano/Flores doing well - the team could send Santana to AAA to get his game together.
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I just have to say it's going to be fun tracking these young kids for the draft this year. I appreciate all the updates and thoughts that people post. I don't follow amateur baseball, so it's fun to watch these conversations. Thanks.
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Perez walked five times in 272 plate appearances. Only 11 players have walked fewer than five times with at least 270 plate appearances since 1901. http://www.brewcrewball.com/2016/2/22/11086062/spring-training-position-battles-third-base Doesn't mean he can't make the team - just that he has a lot of work to do as a player.
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Did I hear my name? http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/headshots/mlb/players/full/6218.png&w=350&h=254
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This photo of Michael Reed - looking like he's bulked up. Source:
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I think we should take the 'Hill is the starter' thing with a grain of salt. All the other options have not produced much in the majors (Perez, Middlebrooks) or are still rookies with their own issues (Cecchini) or rookies probably best suited for other positions (Walsh, Rivera). No one is the clear cut favorite, thus it's not a shocker that the team is saying the veteran has the job (even if he's not a very good veteran). It tells all the other guys that they need to earn the job. Again, that's not surprising.
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Offseason Review: Brewers Best and Worst moves
Matt Breen replied to patrickgpe's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Worst: Signing Middlebrooks. Every time I see the guy play he looks awful. He's been given chance after chance and failed miserably except for a 3-month span in 2012. My worry is the guy has a decent camp and he ends up taking time from other players while he continues to stink in the majors. All that said, it's not the worst thing ever. It's not like I really have seen a ton of the guy - perhaps the club thinks there's something worth salvaging. I'd say the Lind deal was the riskiest due to the players we acquired being so low level. I trust the team liked what they saw in the three guys we got, so I'm okay with it, and fine with it being a long term investment. But these kinds of things don't work out that well. It's sort of like venture investing - you sink money into 10 companies in the earliest stages in the hope that one hits it big down the road. Lots of failure - but if you hit, it can really pay off. Best: Acquiring Cecchini. I've always liked Cecchini - again, I'm a sucker for on base skills. I'm willing to look past his awful 2015 and hope he can regain his earlier form - in which case we have a starter quality player. I also really liked the Segura trade and the Liriano pick up - both very different, but nicely done. The best thing to me is that we are making these moves. It's a combination of getting upside guys at lower levels to getting guys who could help us now or in the near future. I like the philosophy of the deals. I am okay with being patient - and I realize many of these moves won't pan out. But again, I realize that's part of the new organizational philosophy. -
Astros tried to get Lucroy last month, but nothing could be agreed upon: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/02/west-notes-rollins-giants-lucroy-astros-angels.html
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My issue with focusing on developing hitters over pitchers is that the only way we get a really good pitcher is if we get lucky (such as the Arrieta acquisition by Chicago) or we trade for the guy. We can't do the Chicago method - we aren't likely to spend $25M for a pitcher in free agency. Look at the last really good pitchers we acquired via trade - Sabathia and Greinke. The cost was pretty high, and the availability isn't always there. The dearth of pitching prospects has saddled us with the Suppans of the baseball world - middling starters who still command a lot of money. I don't want us paying Greinke $34M a year in free agency. I know pitching is hard to develop - great pitching even more so - but that just means you have to develop a lot of guys. For every 3-4 Top 100 prospects, you're lucky if one turns out as a decent starter. So we have to always be flush with these kinds of players.
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As many have anticipated, the Brewers will move Braun back to LF. http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/165064408/ryan-braun-to-play-left-field-for-brewers Santana is the leading candidate for the RF job.
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Twins interested in Will Smith
Matt Breen replied to And That's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Very, very unlikely. Kepler is showing up in the Top 50 of prospect lists - even as high as #30 with BA. You're going to need more than Smith to get a guy like Kepler. Something like Kepler/Jay for Luc/Smith might work. -
Does anyone know what kind of salary minor league coaches receive? Just curious. Thanks.
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At least that is better than it has been, though I guess it is slightly worse than the "average" (125/30=4.16666) still. That number may increase slightly if the Brewers can get a Tate and/or Ortiz type in a Lucroy trade. Also have to think/hope that one or more of the Devin Williamses/Marcos Diplans/Angel Venturas of the system takes a big step forward this year. I agree that we could use more big upside pitching. I've advocated we use our last big trade chip, Lucory, to get some. As suggested, something with Tate and another starter would be fascinating to add to the system. That said, I'm good if we would build a deal around a bat, such as Trea Turner. It's about acquiring high quality talent - and I'll take it wherever and whatever we can get it. I just look at Lucroy as the last chance to snag a big arm or two. Once we deal Luc, I don't see anyone netting a Top 50 type player. Perhaps Peralta will if he rebounds this year, but we'll see. After that, it's the draft (or international signing) as the next way to find a big upside player.
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The worst thing about that was the fact it was hard for management to commit to a tear down. You aren't going to do it after 2011, you won't after winning 83 in 2012, could have after 2013 but..., in 2014 they should have won the division so hard to blame them for going for it in 2014, and I think when it came to 2015 I think Attanasio wanted one last chance. Yah it is easy to look back in retrospect and say they should have tore down, but in the moment it wasn't so straight forward. Only 1/10 fans would have supported a tear down before last year started. ANYWAY back onto the real topic I wonder how much Braun has a say in going back to LF. I'd think he would be in full support for a move back, but then again maybe he actually thinks he is good out in RF... Yes, it was hard for management to tear down. I understand why we did things in the last few years, even if I didn't agree with them at times. We weren't that good - but we weren't bad. It lead to a patchwork approach to trying to stay afloat (as well as improve), relying on luck as a key element in our strategy (avoiding injuries, guys improving, guys not having bad seasons, etc.). It all sort of just folded in on itself in the 2nd half of 2014 (and kept collapsing last year). It was probably inevitable, but I'm glad we've made a commitment to a new approach.
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BA Top 100 Right Handed Pitchers: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-position-rankings-righthanders/ #12 - Lopez #77 - Ponce BA Top 25 Left Handed Pitchers: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-position-rankings-lefthanders/ #15 - Medeiros #16 - Hader BA Top 20 Catchers: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/top-100-prospects-position-rankings-catchers/ #12 - Nottingham
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I've read some things saying that the Rangers are content to let Gallo go to AAA in 2016 and regain his confidence and work on his game. They know they rushed him last year, and the guy needs to regroup. Between Prince, Moreland, Beltre and Hamilton, there's going to eventually be some injuries - and if Gallo is ready, they'll be happy to elevate him at that time. But they don't need to rush anything. But the big reason they want to hang onto Gallo is that Moreland and Beltre are both free agents after the season. Odds seem to be that Texas wants to extend Beltre, despite his age. That will lead to 1B opening up next season, and Gallo would slot in there perfectly. His right handed power is exactly what Texas needs. No one really sees Gallo as a full time outfielder - it's 3B (which he isn't particularly good at) or 1B. I think Texas is going to hang on to Gallo. His power is just too enticing. They have the position opening in 2017, and the guy needs some more seasoning. They just need to be patient. They don't want to give up on him like they did Chris Davis.
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Luc and Smith for Baez and Montero - no way in my book. That's a huge overpay. You're actually taking on salary. Baez has serious contact issues, and some scouts don't know if he'll ever hit big league pitching. That doesn't mean I wouldn't want him, he obviously has talent, but it would be way underselling on Luc - not to mention giving them Smith. That's a massive overpay. If the club likes Baez, you could do something like remove Smith from the deal, then add something else in from Chicago's system. That's my opinion.
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Great post! I thought '4,000 posts - damn, that's a lot.' Then I saw I'm pushing 3,500. Nice to hear the history of different people - we all live in this virtual world and don't know much about these people we've been talking to for over a decade. Very cool.
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What I like about Stearns is that he is saying that the Brewers will consistently need to keep replenishing the farm system & MLB roster w/ controllable young talent. Melvin went the opposite way once Weeks/Fielder/Hart/Braun etc got to the Show, transforming the Brewers into a team that extended it's own stars consistently (Bill Hall as an example of the worst type of mistake) and signed free agent, aging pitchers (Looper/Suppan etc). That plan ultimately backfired, longterm, and brought us to where we are today as one of the Worst 5 MLB teams That was not the problem. The real problem was the horrid drafting for an extended period of time and Attanasio's inability to not spend every dollar trying to compete EVERY year. Those two things are what lead to where we are today. I think the all the issues fed into each other. We built a young, talented team. We supplemented the talent with some free agents and some trades. But things went sideways. No one plans to draft poorly - yet it happened, and the idea of continuing to add young, cheap talent just never materialized. We were forced to make more free agent signings and more trades than we wanted - the result being a bad farm system coupled with diminishing on field production. As noted, our drafts were pretty bad for a while. What guys we hit on we often dealt to fill roster holes. It's a strategy that will usually lead to a collapse - sooner or later.
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My odds for when/if Luc getting traded: 20% chance something happens before Friday. 70% chance something happens before April 4. 10% Luc starts the season on the team. From what I've been reading, teams want to see Lucroy in action and make sure he's healthy after the concussion last season. It's unlikely teams want to risk giving up a bevy of good prospects before seeing if Luc is okay. Someone could jump the gun and make a deal in the next few days, but I'm betting it happens by early March - give teams a couple of weeks to realize that Luc is going to be fine. I do think the trade will happen pretty quick. Teams will want to get Lucroy into their camp and spend as much time as possible with their pitchers. So once Luc has gone through a couple of weeks of camp, gotten in a few games, someone will make the move - assuming he reports back all is good. Just my guess.
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Simple Change to Fix Drafting/Tanking of All Major Sports
Matt Breen replied to rickh150's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
In addition to getting some international draft, I think a big thing that could be done in baseball is simply require players to submit for the draft or not. Perhaps combine that with strict slotting of pay. This way there's no screwing around with the salary pool. Players get drafted based on their talent and not signability or whatever. It doesn't mean a team won't try and lose to get a higher draft position, but no one is manauevering for more cap money or whatever.
