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Matt Breen

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  1. That rule was changed this year. All signed players can now be traded once the world series ends. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/05/all-drafted-players-now-eligible-to-be-traded-after-world-series.html
  2. Texas reportedly asked about Lucroy at the trade deadline (but were turned away by Melvin). So what about this off season? Texas has a veteran club that is built to win over the next few years (Fielder, Beltre, Choo, Hamels, Hamilton). They have a big hole at catcher. Lucroy is cheap, meaning the club can spend money on pitching or wherever they feel necessary. While getting Gallo would be fascinating, I don't know if Texas would be willing to give up on his potential power bat. What about Dillon Tate? He was the #4 pick in the draft last year - only threw nine innings last year after signing out of college. He has a huge fastball and slider. Ranked #46 in MLB Pipeline, but lots of potential. What if you could build a return around Tate and someone like pitcher Luis Ortiz (30th pick in the draft last year - had a great debut - 50 IP, 1.80 ERA - ranked 86th on MLP Pipeline list). Teams so rarely deal upper level pitchers, so I like the idea of adding high potential guys (even if they offer more chance of flaming out).
  3. If you're platooning a 1B, I don't think you can call him elite.
  4. 20 HRs and a .285 BA at 1B - good, not great. At this point in the rebuild, you don't unload top prospects for a solid player - you develop these kinds of players yourself. Or, once you are ready to contend, then you trade for a guy like Freeman to fill holes in the team. He'd fit well in Boston (assuming they dumped Hanley) or St. Louis - teams that are aiming to contend now. If you could get him on the cheap - sure - great move. Give it a try. But Atlanta isn't stupid. He's a good player and will require a decent return.
  5. The Globetrotters dropped the Generals as their primary opponent a couple of months ago. http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/13433859/harlem-globetrotters-drop-washington-generals-primary-opponent
  6. I saw that one guy the Cards can likely add if he wants to keep playing is Mark Buehrle, who grew up, and lives, close to St. Louis. It would be a natural fit, and Buehrle probably won't cost more than about $10M or so - and only a one-year commitment. He was still reasonably effective last year - 3.81 ERA. Again, all of it comes down to if Buehrle, who turns 37 in March, wants to play anymore.
  7. Part of the reason Matt Weiters took that offer was the lack of need for a catcher from teams around baseball. It still helps Jonathan Lucroy's case, but still poses the same issue. Not to mention you have to find a team with the prospects to do it. Though Weiters has pretty big health concerns on how much he can truly catch which Lucroy doesn't have persay. I'd peg the following teams as potentially having interest in Lucroy: Minnesota (good fit - Minnesota has some nice prospects - they don't like to deal them, however) Texas (supposedly looking to upgrade catcher position, matter of finding the right return) Nationals (like Texas, they want to upgrade, so it's a matter of what they have to give in return) Seattle (definate need, but getting what we wanted would be tough due to a mediocre system) Angels (depleted farm system would make matching up difficult) ChiSox - (bad catchers, weak farm system isn't a good mix) Tampa (bad catchers - could definitley use Lucroy, but would they be willing to cough up what we want. Luc's low salary would fit their limitations.) ChiCubs (Montero is set, but he's not anything great anymore. Dealing within division isn't ideal.) Detroit - (have a young catcher who did okay last year - don't know much about him) Atlanta (probably too much in the rebuilding phase, but they have reportedly been interested in the past) Houston (catchers are probably passable - lots of other holes to fill instead). I'm sure a few others would be interested if the price is right, but the price will likely be high. I should also note that I don't really know minor league catchers, so maybe some of the above teams have a guy ready to step in. Not sure. The perfect team is probably a club with playoff aspirations, a weak catcher situation (duh), and a good farm system. Not the easiest thing to find, but there are a few clubs that fit the mold. Also, some of the teams with lesser systems might be able to work a 3rd team into the trade to get what we want. In the end, there aren't any really good catchers available - so Luc is pretty attractive. There are a number of teams that could really use him - teams that can pay the price as well. It'll be tough, but you never know.
  8. Matt Wieters accepting the qualifying offer from Baltimore should make Lucroy even more attractive to teams looking to add a top flight catcher. Even with his off year, someone will pay a lot for Luc. Will it be enough is the other question - but it's fun to speculate.
  9. Relievers are sort of weird in that very few are so dominant that they are actually game changers. Kimbrel has been like that. Same with Chapman. In fact, those two guys, along with Mariano Rivera, are probably the most dominant closers in baseball over the last 20 years. They are in a class by themselves - and clubs will overpay for them. But very few fit this mold, and K-Rod isn't close to that elite group (not even taking into account his age and past abuse issues). Teams pay through the nose for rare, elite talent. K-Rod is a good reliever, but he's not worth that much. It doesn't mean someone won't want him, but I don't think anyone is going to give that much for him.
  10. Craig Kimbrel heads to Boston for four prospects - outfielder Manuel Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, infielder Carlos Asuaje and left-hander Logan Allen. Margot was ranked #25 by MLB Pipeline. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14124091/boston-red-sox-acquire-craig-kimbrel-san-diego-padres
  11. I don't think so. While Phillips and Newcomb are probably similar in prospect rankings, pitchers seem to have a bit more value. But we added Santana in our deal, a Top 100 guy (granted, a guy around 80-90 on the lists). Plus two interesting pitching prospects. Braves only got one interesting pitching prospect. I guess a lot depends on Aybar. Is he the 4 WAR player of 2014 or the 1 WAR player of 2015? I think he is on the decline, so I don't see a lot of value, but they certainly can flip him for something. Just depends on what. Newcomb is the big chit. Young, top 20-30 pitching doesn't get traded that often.
  12. Aybar has a 1.0 fWAR last season. 4.3 in 2014, and 1.5 in 2013. Upper 3.0s before that. Really inconsistent player in that regard. Last year was his worst OBP of his career, second worst batting average, second worst walk rate, second worst slugging %. Any semblance of power seems to be fading. He'll be 32 in January - a lot of red flags that he's on the decline. Perhaps he had some injury issues (but he's been very healthy over the years).
  13. I want to point out that as much as I like Newcomb, giving up Simmons is tough. Even with mediocre hitting, he's still a 4.0 WAR type player. He is under contract for five more seasons for about $10M a year average. That's a pretty good deal for a 4.0 WAR player. Simmons just turned 26 two months ago, so the Angels get him in his prime (although some writers have noted that shortstops tend to peak defensively at a young age). Even if he fades a bit each year, he's still should be an elite defender. A defender who makes the entire team better. And perhaps the Angels can help him improve his hitting. In the end, the Angels got the 'safe' player in Simmons. Plus, they want to contend now. Newcomb is probably at least a year or two away - and no guareentee.
  14. Well, the Braves are looking for a long term solution at catcher... just sayin'. hmm.... Newcomb, mabye Christian Betancourt. I really like Allard. Braves coud use a young OF as well. Something could match up....
  15. Sentence of the year. Well done. Cormac McCarthy and James Joyce would be proud
  16. I like Newcomb a lot. I wanted Milwaukee to get him a couple of years ago in the draft - even proposed we try and trade for him in the past. I don't know if he can be a #1 type, but he could be a #2. Newcomb ranked 19, 32 and 37 on MLB Pipeline, Sickels and BA, respectively, on the mid-season reports. He's probably a little higher as some guys have graduated since then. I think he's the kind of guy that would headline a trade for Lucroy.
  17. One note I saw on Fangraphs from Dave Cameron was that if Milwaukee is interested in dealing Lucroy, the offseason is probably the most likely time. The reason is that teams put a high value on having their catchers working with the staff all year - as opposed to coming in mid-season. I did a quick check and found that only five catchers have been dealt over the last five years during the season (minimum of 300 plate appearances) - Welington Castillo, A.J. Pierzynski, Kurt Suzuki, John Buck and Geovany Soto. None of these guys is in the category of a Lucroy. They were strictly backups or part-time guys, at times basic salary dumps at the end of a contract. Thus, no top flight catcher has been dealt mid-season during the last five years (it could be longer - I didn't go past five years). Part of that reason is probably that few quality catchers have been made available - but as noted, it's also likely influenced by the fact incorporating a catcher into a team is a little complex than during the offseason. Just something to think about.
  18. Cards already did that. When we cut Suppan in 2010, he had a 7.84 ERA. The Cardinals signed him and he threw 70 innings with a 3.84 ERA the rest of the year.
  19. Do you mean this in reference to defense and/or overall value because his back to back .614 and .616 OPS seasons are well below average for SS. Good catch. I meant defensively - not overall (I corrected the post). In his career his Defensive Runs save is a cumulative of 1. Last year, defensively he was ranked 13th of 23 shortstops that qualified by Fangraphs. I think it's important to remember that SS is probably the most difficult position to fill (except maybe catcher). Your pool of shortstops is small compared to 2B or wherever. Thus, a decent fielding SS still offers value. Overall Segura is below average due to his hitting, but if he can improve a little, he could start creeping up to that 'average (overall' zone, which would improve his value a lot. A low .600 OPS just isn't attractive to anyone unless the guy is a gold glover.
  20. Hader walked or hit a batter 185 times in 363 IP in the minors. That's pretty high. He did much better last year, but I don't think it's crazy or 'hating' for someone to be cautious about him.
  21. Most likely scenario: Kyle Lohse returns to St. Louis and gets 200 IP and 3.00 ERA.
  22. Major League second basemen produced an OPS of .709 in 2015. Shortstops produced an OPS of .688. Segura has rated about average defensively - even a bit above average - as a shortstop. I think his value probably lies at that position since his poor offense would be even more exposed at 2B, and the potential defensive improvement he'd have at 2B wouldn't offset his anemic bat. A guess a lot depends on how much better he is at 2B than other players. I don't know if players go from SS to 2B and change that dramatically as a defender. I'm thinking an average SS can become a good 2B - but rarely do they suddenly go from average SS to awesome 2B. At this point, I think you're best letting Segura and Scooter play everyday in 2016 since right now their trade value is pretty limited. However, if both can do better, they could fetch something much better mid-season or next off season.
  23. Biggest issue (I see) is scheduling. Baseball already goes into late October, and teams already play 6 days a week. Adding four games into the schedule would be an issue. Plus another team gives you 31 teams to schedule. This means on any given day a team cannot be playing - I'm sure this would cause some serious issues for the schedulers.
  24. Good point. I'm all for the rebuild, but that doesn't mean putting young guys on the MLB roster if they aren't ready. If they don't have a good option for 3B next year, and can't find a long-term option in trade, I have no problem with them picking up some journeyman on a 1-year deal to cover the position until a better option arises. We are not going to have high-upside young players at every position... especially early in the rebuild. Rivera has some promise, but if he isn't ready for the big leagues, it isn't going to help his progression to throw him to the wolves. Let him develop a little longer in the minors until he is ready. What exactly are the projections for Rivera? I've never seen anything about his bat being anything special but his defense should be good. If he projects to be a utility infielder then what's the harm in breaking camp with him and rotating him around the infield? I'd find it hard to believe that his bat is going to get that much better by spending more time in the minors or that his development is going to be hindered by being brought up early. Sure, he might put up a .650 OPS but that's what got from Segura and Perez anyway. Looking at his stats, he doesn't look like he's going to hit much: - Poor walk rates - Little power - Mediocre batting average - In video of Rivera batting (at least this year), he doesn't look like he's driving the ball. It looks his approach is all arms, no legs in his swing. The swing is kind of long. I have to stress what I've seen is really limited - no more than a dozen at bats. But there are a few signs he could do better: - As noted, he's been young for his league. - He's hit 9 and 12 HRs in a season (at rookie and A ball) - not great, but not bad for a middle infielder. - Rivera looks pretty skinny, but the guy is actually 6'3" and 180 lbs. If he can mature physically a bit more, get a little stronger, it could change his game a lot. - The batting approach can mature with experience - and maybe a some more strength. Right now he looks like a utility player. If he could improve his hitting - even a little - he might be fringe starter at 2B or SS. His glove will add value no matter what.
  25. Clark ranking ahead of him seems odd, but BA did rank Lopez ahead of Berrios (preseason #36, midseason #19) and Stephenson (preseason #23, midseason #36) on the Southern League list so I would expect a top 20-40 ranking with him when end of season comes out. I love Clark, and when I did my initial rankings on the last poll, I had him ahead of Phillips. Then I looked at Phillips numbers again - 60 extra base hits in 2014, and 64 last year. I realize some of those numbers have come in hitter friendly environments, but that's insanely impressive. And even if Phillips doesn't develop that much power, that kind of hitting is going to play in the big leagues. That all said, Phillips' power did plummet after going to AA, so that's probably dinging him in some eyes. Still, he had 23 xbh on 214 ABs at AA (only 1 HR), so I'm excited about his potential. I also don't want to let a really nice half a season overwhelm my expectations for Clark. It's easy to do that. I still think the guy is going to be really good, but I just want to temper my enthusiasm and see a little more of a track record.
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