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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. Matt Breen
    People often ignore data and science because it threatens pre-conceived notions, or it questions their 'expertise', or because it simply is something they don't 'get' or can't figure out. And it's not just rejecting data, it's being hostile to it, degrading it, belittling it, embracing questionable contrary views, and actively embrace the ignorance of it all. I don't know about the Pirates, but they seem to have found a formula that's giving them some success.
  2. Matt Breen
    Being no hit by Kyle Hendricks. We are a AAAA club right now.
  3. Matt Breen
    This sums it up pretty well.
  4. Matt Breen
    So Lopez is a grade B prospect. Do we know approximately how many prospects SB Nation has in the minors who would have a higher rating to put it in perspective? Coming into 2015, Sickels had roughly 50 pitchers ranked as B or better. Remember, he said Lopez is 'at least' a B going forward. He has a lot of B ratings. If Lopez is given a B+, that probably puts him in the top 20-25 pitchers.
  5. Matt Breen
    Another important thing about Braun's contract is that he only gets $15M a year over the next five years. A lot of people say he is getting paid $20M a year - but in reality he has already received $10M in signing bonus money, plus another $18M is deferred. Thus, he only takes home $15M a year - not $20M like a lot of people believe.
  6. Matt Breen
    You need to dig up the 2015 Optimism thread. It's been a while since it was used.
  7. Matt Breen
    A look at Lopez's breakout season by John Sickels: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/9/22/9334593/prospect-on-the-rise-jorge-lopez-rhp-milwaukee-brewers He doesn't go overboard on Lopez - says he's jumped to at least a B prospect - but he offers him some nice praise. He notes incremental improvements on his change up and curve, but says it's the velocity uptick - from 89-92 last year to 92-95 this year - that has been the big difference. He also says Lopez's mound presence and composure are greatly improved from a few years ago.
  8. Matt Breen
    Nope, only until 2020. We do pay him until 2031 though, so we've got that going for us. Braun is under contract through 2020 (as noted), with a $15M mutual option for 2021 (with a $4M buyout). Beginning in 2022, the team will pay Braun $1.8M every year for 10 years (total of $18M of deferred money). That goes through 2031.
  9. Matt Breen
    Davis is certainly upping his stock as he finishes well. His 23 HR is tied for 20th in the majors for right handed hitters. That's not an insignificant stat - especially considering he's done it in only 109 games. I'm not saying we don't look to trade him - just make sure you're getting good value back if you do.
  10. Matt Breen
    Hanley is talented, but he's also a terrible fielder, injury prone (games played over the last five years - 92, 157, 86, 128 and 105), makes a ton of money, erratic at the plate (his OPS has been in the .700s three of the last five years - as low as .712 - but also over 1.000) and - at 32 this December - at the point where all his skills will start deteriorating. If Milwaukee was a contender, I could see adding him (assuming Boston paid 1/2 his salary) if he was a desperate need. But we're not a contender, and won't be for a few years. We just got rid of an aging, bad fielding, injury prone 3B who made more than $10M a year. Let's not do that again.
  11. Matt Breen
    I think we are at the 40 man limit at this time, so there were only so many guys you could add. We needed more OF depth with Braun and Herrera out (plus Davis has the gimpy ankle). We started Rogers in LF the other day - that shows you we are thin at the position. Rivera was already on the 40 man roster, so he gets the nod for IF depth.
  12. Matt Breen
    Thank you to all you guys - again - for all the great work. I can't tell you how great these are to have. Thanks again.
  13. Matt Breen
    Stearn is saying all the right things - draft well, acquire good talent, keep up a steady stream of major league talent, can't build a team through free agency, employ best practices throughout the org, etc., etc. For obvious reasons, he's not going into specifics to much.
  14. Matt Breen
    Every rebuild is different. Houston's rebuild was drastic due to many factors, including a lack of minor league talent and a lack of major league talent (all at the time they started losing). I don't think many people think Milwaukee is in that drastic of a boat at this time. No one is saying we need top 5 picks for the next three or four years in order to contend. It's about getting talent. The draft is essential - but it's not the only way. The team has some good young players, and needs to assess the existing assets and see how they can align to making the team a winner. If that's 2017, great. If it's 2018, that's fine. If it means a step back in 2016 (say trading a guy like Lucroy) so we can take two steps forward in 2017, that's okay.
  15. Matt Breen
    http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/328435641.html Stearns is only 30 years old, a Harvard grad, and currently the Astros assistant GM.
  16. Matt Breen
    Bases loaded and Scooter swings at two straight breaking balls that hit the ground by his feet. I just see too many holes in Scooter's game, which is frustrating because he has been productive. I don't know why any pitcher would throw him a fast ball. He just hacks too much.
  17. Matt Breen
    Well done, Sedar. Send the guy with a gimpy ankle home with no outs. We talk about holding players accountable, but why is the 3B doing stupid plays.
  18. Matt Breen
    I wish Rock would shut up about 'laying down bunts'.
  19. Matt Breen
    I hate Cubs fans, but Cardinals fans and their org I just loathe. Perhaps the ineptitude of the Cubs over the years has made them a bit of a joke, but the smugness and 'Cardinal Way' crap makes St. Louis the worst. Well done, Joe Maddon. We need more people like this calling out these sanctimonious weenies. If the Brewers do it, we're just whiners and no one really listens. But when other clubs do it, it helps establish the 'Cardinals are dicks' narrative - that is so true. End rant.
  20. Matt Breen
    Molina just looks like he's gotten old fast (at least as a hitter). He's looking slow (not just running), but with his bat speed.
  21. Matt Breen
    Davis is a 30-HR guy when he hits 30 HRs (or at least gets near it). Right now he's a 20-25 HR guy with the potential to be a 30-HR guy. I can see where someone can see the guy as a 30-HR guy due the fact he's got 21 in 330 ABs this year. Multiply that production by 150% and you get 495 ABs and 31 HR. But extrapolating production doesn't make it real. Davis is a pretty streaky player, plus he's had some injuries. That's why we just let him play - this year and next. Let him prove he can stay healthy, let him develop more consistency, let him improve as a player. If at some point we are offered a deal worthy of the guy then you consider it. If Khris pops 30 HR next year and hits .250-.260 it's a fine asset - whether you keep or trade him. Right now, however, that's not him.
  22. Matt Breen
    Because he's 32 and in the final year of his contract. Pretty simple. And he's been injury prone in his career. I'm not saying to move the guy for crap, but he's at peak value this off season. If Milwaukee was a contender next year, I'd be all for keeping the guy. But I don't think that's realistic. So see what he can fetch. Position players often are most attractive in the off season, when teams lose players to free agency, when teams clear salary off the books, and when many clubs are looking to retool to contend the next season. A team such as Boston, for instance, wouldn't probably have wanted a guy like Lind two months ago because they knew they were out of the playoff race. But this off season might be a different story (not that they'd want Lind - just an example of how a team can be a non-contender during the season, but a potential contender a few months later). I understand the argument to keep the guy - people want to put the best team on the field. Lind is our best option at 1B. It all comes down to opinions of whether Milwaukee could 'contend' next year (everyone's definition of contending is different). Personally, I think if everything went well next year, we could sniff .500. To me, that's not contending. Thus you move Lind when the right offer comes along. He's a free agent after next year, so he's not part of long term solution to make us a winner.
  23. Matt Breen
    I'd sacrifice a spot in the draft order to stick it to St. Louis and help force them into the wildcard game instead of the division title.
  24. Matt Breen
    Aren't the new pitchers like Davies and Jungmann groundball pitchers anyways? So less stress would be put on the OFs. You are correct. Davies, Peralta, Jungmann and Nelson are all groundball guys - each will probably be around 50%. I'm not sure about Garza. It's why really like the idea improving infield defense - a guy like Arcia will be gold for these pitchers.
  25. Matt Breen
    Trading Davis all comes down to what you are offered. If there's something good on the table, you can't be afraid to take it. If not, you just play the hand you're dealt. Davis, Santana and Braun in the OF next year would be terrible defensively, but I don't really care. If we don't find good trade value for a guy like Davis, just let the guys go out and hit, establish their value. We can sort out eventual positions depending on how guys like Phillips, Reed and Taylor develop - not to mention how Davis and Santana play next year - and what we do with guys like Lind. 2016 is likely a losing year, so it's the time to experiment. If a good trade comes along for Davis you can pull the trigger. But until that happens, just let him play. Don't force any trades at this time.
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