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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. Matt Breen
    No on Middlebrooks. Below average defender, can't hit for average, doesn't walk much, a modicum of power. He simply is a bad player, and I don't want anyone being tempted to think he's anything more than that and giving him playing time. He's had his chances (several of them) and failed. Time to give others a try.
  2. Matt Breen
    I'm just excited to see 16 guys with B- or better rankings. Outside of Arcia, we lack elite type guys, but a team like ours simply needs to produce a host of good prospects (as many will undoubtably fail). We have a lot of younger guys who have a chance to become A type prospects down the road - just like Arcia did.
  3. Matt Breen
    Alvarez needs to go to the AL to DH. He's just awful in the field. Last year Fangraphs ranked him as the 2nd worst fielder in baseball (behind Matt Kemp). In 2014, he was around 10th worst (while playing 3B). The guy is what he is - he hits .230-.240, walks about 10% of the time, smacks 25-30 HR, plays awful defense. He's a DH. He can probably improve his HR and BA numbers by getting out of Pittsburgh, which is tough on lefties. I think he'd fit well in Baltimore if they don't resign Davis (Trumbo can play 1B, Alvarez can DH).
  4. Matt Breen
    If the club thinks he can be a decent player, I agree. Why not go for him. Even if he can just be an average 3B, that's a pretty solid player to have (especially considering the alternatives). It's not like he's blocking a big time player, and it immediately fills a hole in the major league team.
  5. Matt Breen
    Wolf was definitely better than Happ - even Wolf was never that good. Happ's had a couple of decent seasons, and his career ERA is similar to Wolf's. But he's never eaten innings like Wolf did when he was healthy. And Wolf pitched a lot of his innings during the PED era, when scoring was a lot more prevalent. Wolf had his issues - he's been in the big leagues for parts of 16 seasons - and only 4 times did he have an ERA under 4.00. He looked like a promising young pitcher, then he had a difficult four year run from age 27-30 where he was injured much of the time - and didn't pitch well when he was healthy. Wolf ended up with a decent four year run at the start of his career with Philly, then a nice three year run (one year with LA, two with Milwaukee) in the latter part of his career. He threw over 200 IPs six times - not an insignificant thing to accomplish. Happ looks like a big gamble. That great 11 game run at the end of last year really saved his career. They say he made some mechanical adjustments - but it's hard to think a 33 year old guy can change that dramatically. We'll see.
  6. Matt Breen
    I read that Price was 'enamored' with the idea of playing in St. Louis - but in the end, money talked.
  7. Matt Breen
    Some more from Sickels with a list of his top 37 Brewers prospects, but merely listed in alphabetical order at this point. Milwaukee Brewers preliminary prospect list EDIT: Make sure to check out the comments section as Sickels made some adjustments to his original list (now at 35) and gives a preview by including his ranking (A-) and commentary of Orlando Arcia. In the comments, in addition to giving Arcia an A-, he says that Hader is at least a B - maybe a B+ prospect. He also mentions that Jorge Ortega and David Denson are C prospects (and didn't make his list). He noted the really low K rate for Ortega as a red flag. Sickels hasn't posted his specific grades to each player, but he did post the grade breakdown of the Brewers: A = Zero A- = 1 (we know this is Arcia) B+ = 3 B = 3 B- = 8 C+ = 9 C = 11 This was based on 35 guys he was considering for the list. Very important - prior to 2014 we had 1 B (nelson) and 4 B- prospects. This year we are going to have 15 guys who are B- and above. That's a huge jump in two years. We can probably make educated guesses at the B+ guys - Clark, Lopez, Phillips. Maybe Hader. Hader was mentioned in the earlier posts as at least a B guy. Other B prospects could come from Lara or Kodi - and Sickels has always like Houser, Coulter and Devin Williams - so you never know. No matter what, it's a greatly improved farm system. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/12/1/9814784/milwaukee-brewers-preliminary-prospect-grade-distribution-breakdown
  8. Matt Breen
    That's awesome. Thanks.
  9. Matt Breen
    Bill James looks a little different idea - a three-man rotation, but limiting the starter to 5 innings or 80 pitchers. Then you have relievers take over. http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_three_man_starting_rotation/ Dave Schoenfield at ESPN talks about the idea in depth as well: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/66690/the-three-man-rotation-could-be-the-future-of-baseball
  10. Matt Breen
    Some more from Sickels with a list of his top 37 Brewers prospects, but merely listed in alphabetical order at this point. Milwaukee Brewers preliminary prospect list EDIT: Make sure to check out the comments section as Sickels made some adjustments to his original list (now at 35) and gives a preview by including his ranking (A-) and commentary of Orlando Arcia. In the comments, in addition to giving Arcia an A-, he says that Hader is at least a B - maybe a B+ prospect. He also mentions that Jorge Ortega and David Denson are C prospects (and didn't make his list). He noted the really low K rate for Ortega as a red flag.
  11. Matt Breen
    Garza's ERAs from 2007-2014 - 3.69, 3.70, 3.95, 3.91, 3.32, 3.91, 3.82, 3.64 While I don't put stock in stats more than 2-3 years old, I just want to point out that the guy has had a remarkably consistent run until he imploded last year. Even just looking at his 2013-14 seasons, he was a solid starter in this league. With this club not having to be overly concerned about wins and losses in 2016, it's well worth it to see if the guy can rebound to the pitcher he was previously. He is 32 - not old for pitcher - but not young either. Garza's value is nil right now. Put him in the pen and he does decent, he might get you 10 or 20 cents on the dollar. But put him in the rotation, and see if he can rebound to an ERA more indicative of his career, then he's worth far more to another team. Are we going to get a top 20 prospect for him? No. And we'll still likely have to kick in some cash to facilitate a deal - but maybe it's only $10M instead of $20M. Also, none of our prime, upper level pitching prospects (Hader, Wagner, Lopez) has pitched above AA except for a few games. Having them work another 1/2 season at AAA will likely help them more than anything. So, Garza isn't blocking anyone right now. He's got no value - and the best way to build value is to let him pitch. So make it happen.
  12. Matt Breen
    The only guy I don't think will get traded is Braun. It's not that Braun is bad or we don't want to deal him, I just don't know what he'll fetch with his injury and PED history. In the end, I think we'll have to kick in a bunch of money to deal him. Or take a sub-par return. Or both. If that's the case, then we won't deal. His bat is still good, so may as well keep him. Doesn't mean we can't find a deal, but I see it as pretty tough.
  13. Matt Breen
    The first of the the major free agents, Jordan Zimmerman, is off the hard. The Wisconsin native signs with Detroit - 5 years and $110M. Detroit loses their 2nd round pick since their #1 pick falls in the top 10 and is thus protected. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/tigers-to-sign-jordan-zimmermann.html
  14. Matt Breen
    Toronto is going quantity of quality - and shorter term deals. Price is going to go $30M a year for 7 years - at least. Estrada is signed for two years, Happ three years. They traded for Jesse Chavez who's a free agent in a year. Dickey is a free agent after 2016 as well. I assume Stroman will be the fifth starter - that means they have their rotation done for roughly $45M this year. The problem is those guys all have pretty significant question marks - and depth is an issue. Estrada and Happ are coming off career years. Dickey is old. Chavez is pretty mediocre. Stroman is coming off injury. They've dealt their top minor league pitchers, so the guys that offer promise - Harris and Reid-Foley - haven't even pitched above A ball. Just one of those guys blowing up or getting injured can really hurt them. Of course, this team is going to pound the ball. Bautista, Donaldson and Encanarcion hit 40, 41 and 39 HRs each. Tulowitzski is there for full year. The club hit 232 HR last year - and could easily top it. Happ getting $12M annually is pretty steep. The price of mediocre pitching just keeps rising.
  15. Matt Breen
    The Blue Jays have signed free agent starter J.A. Happ to a 3 year, $36M contract. Happ struggled last year with Seattle (4.64 ERA), but was brilliant (sub-2.00 ERA) after going to Pittsburgh at the trade deadline and tweaking his mechanics. Toronto looks like several past Brewer teams - average veteran starting pitchers surrounded by a powerful lineup. They will have to hope Dickey can manage another decent season, and Happ and Estrada don't revert to their previous selves. A healthy Stromen should help. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/blue-jays-sign-j-a-happ.html
  16. Matt Breen
    I would second this sentiment regarding adding a stud pitcher over a catching prospect. Stud catching prospects like Buster Posey are very rare, and even the good ones often take years to develop (a lot of them flame out as well as they get to the upper minors). While pitchers aren't exactly the most stable of prospects either, I want lots of high upside arms due to the flame out rate. And identifying an impact arm in the minors is probably safer than trying to project most catchers.
  17. Matt Breen
    Yes, thank you. Needing to get a catcher of the future or a 3rd baseman of the future is not the way to trade. You're severely limiting the talent you can get back if you only focus on getting certain positions or getting guys close to the majors. Get the best package of players you can and figure it out later. Totally agree here. We have the luxury of not being forced to fill a position with a long term solution at this time. Having a prospect 3B or catcher tomorrow isn't essential to 2016 because it won't change the fact that we just won't be that good. It's a very different situation if you're St. Louis or the Cubs or Pirates. They expect to contend next year, and can't afford to have a huge hole in their lineup. I'm not saying we ignore 3B or catcher - but wait for the right situation to fill the hole. That might be a free agent, or a draft pick, or whatever. But take our time and make sure it's best for the team.
  18. Matt Breen
    Doah! http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Yuniesky+Betancourt+Milwaukee+Brewers+v+St+MhHjRocAl9El.jpg
  19. Matt Breen
    No, it's not unheard of. But it is highly unlikely. The histories, scouting reports and skillsets of the above guys does not indicate they are the types of guys to become dominant pitchers. Thus, you play to what you do expect of them, making moves accordingly. This plays into the 'if everything goes right' idea that so many people get about this (or any) team. "If players A, B and C step up, if Player D and E come back fully from injury, if we avoid injuries, etc., etc. - we can compete." Sadly, it rarely goes that way. Life balances out the goods and bads. Again, not always. You'll have years where things do go well (2011 for example when our top five pitchers started every game but a half-doze or something like that). And year's things go bad (last year, for example - no one thought Garza and Lohse would crater so badly). We need to build a team that we predict will win 90 games - not 83 and hope for good luck. And on the chance that Jungmann, Peralta and Nelson become dominant pitchers - then you make adjustments during the year. If we miss out on the playoffs by a game, I'll be kicking myself for not keeping Lind (or K-Rod or whomever). But I judge this scenario highly unlikely - thus it's a risk that I'd take. The key is the team has to make the most honest assessment of it's talent and adjust accordingly. There will be mistakes - it is baseball and crazy stuff happens. But the key is being honest as to where we are as a team - and where we are going.
  20. Matt Breen
    I think this is inaccurate. Davis, Smith and even Segura could net us a decent return. We just need to find the right fit for each player. He said 'great' return - and I agree with him. Davis and Smith will likely net something decent - but not great. Lucroy is the only Brewer who currently would land a great return (and how great a return is debatable after his injuries and lackluster 2015 season). A great return gets you a top tier prospect and then some - much like the Gomez deal this past year. I'm not sure Segura nets you much. He's got 2.5 years of below average production. But I guess you never know. I hope he starts off 2016 really hot so we can deal him at that time.
  21. Matt Breen
    Nicholas at Disciples of Uecker has put together a list of his favorite Rule 5 possibilities for the Crew: http://disciplesofuecker.com/rule-5-preview/25018 RHP Brady Rodgers (Astros) C Roberto Pena (Astros) C Tyler Marlette (Mariners) 1B Patrick Leonard (Rays) 3B Tyler Goeddel (Rays) UTIL Niko Goodrum (Twins) 1B Ronald Guzman (Rangers) LHP Luis Lugo (Indians) LHP Miguel del Pozo (Marlins) C Jose Briceno (Braves [now Angels]) CF Carlos Tocci (Phillies) Well worth the read.
  22. Matt Breen
    Sardinas looks like the kind of guy who hasn't changed physically in several years. At age 19, scouts probably said, "This kid has got a great glove. If he fills out, he could be pretty good." But he hasn't filled out. He's a stick figure - 6'1" and 150 lbs. He'll be 23 in May, which means he's still got a chance to bulk up a little, but time is against him. It's why prospects can, especially young ones, are so difficult to assess. These are kids. The great basketball player David Robinson was 5'9" his junior year of HS - he ended up 7'0". I just looked at Luis last season and saw a guy who was never going to hit the ball with any authority. He had a ton of promise a few years ago, but he just didn't develop as hoped. A lot of that has nothing to do with him. We can only do so much to build strength and bulk (legally, of course). He might just not have that in him. I see Sardinas as redundant - a guy like Rivera has more potential as a hitter - so he would just languish at AAA. Best get something for him now.
  23. Matt Breen
    Texas prospect Ryan Cordell has played zero games at 2B in his career. He's played a total of 33 at 3B (with 12 errors). He's has 14 games at SS (7 errors) and 11 games at 1B.
  24. Matt Breen
    Dodgers would be insane to do this. Seeger is perhaps the top prospect in the game. To give him up for a middle of the rotation starter (plus a back up catcher and a below averager shortstop) would be nuts. But hey, we can try!
  25. Matt Breen
    The Brewers have been really screwed due to poor depth over the last few years - so the idea of creating a deep roster (and minor league system) is really important. I think Fangraphs did a thing that from showed 20% of Milwaukee's at bats went to replacement level players (or worse) in 2012-14. Guys like Yuni, Gonzalez, etc. We'd get killed when a starter went down (or did poorly). Or we'd just do bad because we couldn't afford to add a decent starter (think Overbay/Reynolds). The big problem was we couldn't develop many young players - back up or starter - forcing us to spend big money on mediocre replacments. This meant we ignored back ups and depth because we had no money alloted for this kind of player. Perhaps depth and flexibility is may be one of those 'market inefficiencies' that people talk about.
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