Matt Breen

I said last July that Ponce would be our best starter by next summer. Ponce went to a small college and never needed to use his secondary pitches much. His fastball was all he really needed. A baseball writer I know talked to some scouts who were very high on Ponce and his ability to expand his repertoire. They saw the ability in college - just not often. He didn't need to throw 30 sliders (or whatever pitch) in a game - just three or four. It's just a matter of time before he works out his secondary pitches (we hope) - and he can really become a hot prospect. That's my pie-in-the-sky dream of Ponce. With Lopez really emerging, plus all the extra arms, perhaps he won't be the best prospect we have - but I'm banking he'll be one of the best.

The Cardinals could find themselves falling behind Pittsburgh and Chicago. Several key guys are getting old, they lack a superstar bat, Heyward and Lackey are free agents, injuries, Reyes pot suspension, etc. The offense just isn't that good, and Piscotty and Grichuk really overplayed their expectations. Both are going to need to produce again next year. Of course, you can't count them out. They won 100 games last year - you don't do that on luck. Wainwright is back, so that will help, but the guy is 34 - you can't count on him coming back and being a Cy Young candidate. I just see a team that is a little worse in just about every way next year. Doesn't mean they'll be bad, but they aren't favorites in many peoples' eyes.

Cardinals have lost starting pitcher Lance Lynn for 2016. He had Tommy John surgery. Losing Lynn will be a big blow to the Cards. He averaged 15 wins per year over the last four years, and nearly 200 IP a season. He had 3.5 and 3.7 bWAR the last couple of seasons. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/lance-lynn-tommy-john-surgery-cardinals.html

I'm eying up that Vinny Rotino kid. 3B problem? Solved.

Nice mention of Magnifico by Jim Callis: "Damien Magnifico, RHP, Brewers. He matched Black for the most efficient inning, requiring just eight pitches in a perfect third. He averaged 97.7 mph with his fastball and whiffed Clint Frazier, the Indians' No. 2 prospect, on three consecutive sliders. Magnifico thrived after becoming a full-time reliever this year and will surface in Milwaukee quickly if he throws strikes as easily as he did in the Fall Stars Game." http://m.mlb.com/news/article/156776348/7-players-who-stood-out-at-fall-stars-game?topicid=153494546

Wow. Only 29 years old. The kid looked like he was going to be a star before all the injuries. Sad news.

One of the Cardinals best prospects, pitcher Alex Reyes, has been suspended for 50 games for using marijuana. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/cardinals-prospect-alex-reyes-receives-50-game-suspension.html Reyes is considered a Top 20 prospect by BA, John Sickels and MLB pipeline, to name a few of the prospect sites.

This is going after quantity instead of quality. If you trade Lucroy, you want a bonafide top level prospect. I'm talking a Top 20 guy. Kepler is a nice prospect, but far from can't miss type of guy. Milwaukee needs to develop some all-star level players. Lucroy is your top trade bait, so like with Gomez, you use that to snag a top prospect. We've discussed the Plouffe thing in depth. He's not needed at this time, and his inclusion only drags down the quality of prospects that you can get. 3B is a need, without a doubt, but you have the luxury of experimenting. Find a fringe player or two and give them a chance. Or grab a guy in Rule 5 that could stick. If it works out, the team gets a young 3B for low cost. If not, you try again in 2017.

Plouffe is a good player, but he only has 2 years until free agency. I want longer term players - not just a couple of years of a guy. Perhaps if we were contending, but I don't see that happening the next two years. I guess I see it differently as in he is a guy that can be our guy there for this season (at least until July) as well as next season until July. We get .5 to 1.5 years out of him as a filler for us as well as flipping him for prospects for the future years. Just because we may not contend in the next 1-3 years doesn't mean we shouldn't be signing/trading for some of these guys that can fill now and also help our future. It's not like Plouffe is free. You still have to trade for the guy. He's a good player, and (as noted by others), won't be cheap. I have no problem signing guys or trading for guys that make sense. I just don't see the smarts in dealing valuable assets to acquire a guy in Plouffe's situation.

Plouffe is a good player, but he only has 2 years until free agency. I want longer term players - not just a couple of years of a guy. Perhaps if we were contending, but I don't see that happening the next two years.

It should be noted that we could still resign Perez. If we don't have any 3B candidates, he might be open to coming back if he's given a crack at the job.

Twins got the winning bid. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/twins-win-byung-ho-park-bid.html Makes sense. They are ready to contend now.

Twins seem a little bit of an odd mix - they have Sano, Mauer and Plouffe to cover 1B/3B/DH. But I guess they could deal Plouffe for something decent (I'm sure they'd love to deal Mauer, but no one is taking that contract). Park is kind of a scary investment. The 53 HRs are sweet, but he struck out 161 times in 140 games in the KBO - by far the highest total in the league. A couple of sites predicted Park will get a 4-5 year deal at around $7-8M annually. Add in the $12.5M posting fee, and you're talking about $50M (that's giving him a 5 year deal at $7.5M a year). One thing is can be considered is that Milwaukee has about $70-75M committed to players this year (and that's still with Lind in the mix). By front loading this deal with the posting fee now, you can afford it.

Yes, players can develop greater patience in their career. I have no doubt Perez would be better than his performance last year. In the minors, he usually had a walk rate of around 4-7% - so eventually he very well could have reached those numbers. But making dramatic changes is rare. We can always pull out the exceptions, which gives us hope, but for every player who never learned patience we can probably dig up a 100 others who never did (and thus we never heard of them). To me, physically, Perez looked like he could be a better hitter (at least develop a little power) - he wasn't some stick figure middle infielder. But the club just has to make a decision - they looked at his likely path and decided there were better options.

I'm going to throw out a few names at 3B - mostly based on looking at scouting reports and stats. I'm looking at guys who we could potentially grab who have decent defensive reputations. If anyone has seen these guys, please add your opinions. Christian Villanueva - 24 year old right handed hitting 3B - Cubs - good defender. Slow. Decent power - hit 20 HR last year, mostly at AAA. BA is nothing great - hit .259, .751 OPS - doesn't walk a lot. Had a poor 2014, but has mostly been a .260-.270ish hitter in the minors with around 18-20 HR. Blocked in Chicago, he could get a shot now in Mliwaukee. Probably is, at best, a .250 BA, 20 HR, good defense player. Kaleb Cowart - 23 year old switch hitting 3B - Angels - #1 pick in 2010. Has had a non-descript career until hitting great in the second half of 2015 at AAA, even getting called up to big leagues for some ABs when Freese was out. Considered an excellent defender. He had an .805 OPS between A+ and AAA last year, but has generally not hit that well (usually around a .700-.750 OPS). Modest power, but is a bigger guy who could develop more pop. Right now, if things went decent, he probably would project hitting .260-.270 with 10-12 HR and excellent defense. May be ticketed by the Angels to replace Freese. Kyle Kubitza - 25 year old left handed hitting 3B - Angels - Former Brave has always hit decent in the minors. Last year at AAA he hit .271 and had a .350+ OBP. His power dipped last year - only 7 HR, but he did hit 43 doubles. Struggled in a short stint in the big leagues. Considered a good defender. Scouts have always been a little concerned that his swing is too long. If things play out, he could be a .260-270ish hitter, take a decent amount of walks, hit 10-15HR, play solid defense. Like Cowart, he could compete for the 3B in LA this year. Colin Moran - 23 year old left handed hitting 3B - Astros - Former #1 pick really took off last year after coming back from the DL. Ended up hititng over .300 at AA. Defense is average at best, but has always been considered to have a nice hit tool. Not a lot of power thus far, but the guy is still young. Very slow player. Houston has a nice 3B prospect in JD Davis right behind Moran who they might like better, so Moran may be a luxury. Right now, he could potentially be a good batting average, good on base percentage, modest power, average defense guy. Just throwing out some names as potential 3B guys.

Boog Powell always reminded me of the Skipper from Gilligan's Island. Boog Powell http://cdn.thebaseballpage.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/player_page_profile_image/images/baseball_entity/BoogPowell.jpg Alan Hale Jr. - The Skipper http://image2.findagrave.com/photos/2001/222/halealanjrbio.jpg

Hernan walked 5 times in 272 plate appearances last year. He had a .257 OBP to go with 1 HR and 59 strikeouts. He was bad last season. We can't naval gaze over guys like this. Sure he could get better. But if the club doesn't see him as part of the future, cut the cord now and let other guy have a chance.

The 'original' Boog Powell was a pretty good player back in the 60s and 70s. He was a big guy - maybe 6'5" and 240-250 lbs. - so his defense was limited. But the guy could pound the ball. He hit 30+ HR several times, drove in lots of runs - even won an MVP. If I recall, other than one season in Cleveland as a DH, he was pretty much washed up by about 30 - had that body type that didn't age well.

Leake is the kind of player the Brewers may be targeting going forward - specifically a high groundball pitcher. Peralta, Jungmann, Davies, Nelson - all big time groundball pitchers. Add in a guy like Leake you are making an interesting staff (maybe not that good, but interesting). If you then look to improve your defense and load up the bullpen with power arms, you have something interesting. Again, maybe not great, but interesting.

Off season trades have begun! Such excitement. Mariners send infielder Brad Miller, first baseman Logan Morrison and pitcher Danny Farquhar to Tampa Bay for pitchers Nathan Karns and C.J. Riefenhauser and minor league outfielder Boog Powell. http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14063587/seattle-mariners-tampa-bay-rays-make-6-player-trade

If Lind repeats this year's performance in 2016, I still don't know if he gets a qualifying offer. Sure Cuddyer was signed even with the qualifying offer on him (2-years/$21M). But that turned out pretty poorly. LaRoche is a similar guy - he got 2-years and $25M without the qualifying offer on him. He was pretty awful last year. I just don't know if Lind, even with two years of decent health, would inspire someone to cough up their #1 draft pick (perhaps a #2 pick, but it all depends). Look what happened to Nelson Cruz a couple of years ago - he had to settle for a 1-year/$8M deal. With Lind's injury history, platoon issues, limited defensive ability, plus the fact that guys like this don't usually age well, makes him a risk for anyone. If he has a solid season, and he got a QO, I bet he'd take it. Ultimately, I guess it only takes one team to sign the guy - but that doesn't always work out for the player.

I'm going to echo the sentiment that the next couple of years is about developing and acquiring quality players no matter what the position. I want guys who project to be above average at their position. Obviously there's less need at a position such as SS (due to Arcia coming down the pipeline), but I don't think anyone else is a 'sure thing' in our system. Acquire and develop impact players - that's the key. On a lesser note, you let borderline players see if they can improve (such as Perez at 3B or Rogers at 1B or whomever). Those kinds of players are essential to fleshing out a roster down the roac. When we start putting together a team that could be in the playoff mix, then you start plugging specific holes.

Footage is really hard to find. MLB really cracks down on places posting official video. If you're just looking to watch some highlights, I've had best luck going to the Brewers website, clicking on the video tab, and doing a basic search. Example, go there and type in 'Sabathia Brewers' and you'll get all sorts of videos of CC during his time in Milwaukee. Or if you type in 'Braun Cubs' it will have in the results the game with him hitting the HR that won the final game of the year. It's not a great way to find things, but the best I have come up with.

Losing any of these guys isn't a big deal, but based on numbers and history, I look at Jaye Chapman and see a potential bullpen arm.

If you want to try Smith as a starter, next year's the time to do it. As to his ability to start - I think it all comes down to stuff none of us know much about. He's been a reliever for a couple of years and hasn't had to develop a full arsenal. That he didn't do well at age 22 as a starter shouln't really be held against - lots of guys are bad at age 22. I think it comes down to Smith and the team making an honest assessment of his full repetoire of pitches. If they all think he has it in him to be a quality starter, then go for it.