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Matt Breen

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Everything posted by Matt Breen

  1. Why is Norris damaged goods? Is he hurt? I didn't realize that. And of course, you have to make sure Pentecost is given a clean bill of health.
  2. At 35-32, Toronto is two games back in a somewhat lackluster AL East. GM Alex Anthopoulos could easily get cast aside if the club doesn't make the playoffs as many predicted - and ownership expects. That makes it a good time to go after some top tier young talent. Toronto doesn't have a lot of financial flexibility, so that has to be taken into account. Here's the deal: Toronto gets Carlos Gomez and K-Rod. K-Rod fills the closer role at a cheap price. Gomez moves to CF. They had a nice prospect in Dalton Pompey, but he bombed this year at Toronto (.193 BA on 83 ABs) and has gone all the way back down to AA after a tough stint at AAA. Milwaukee gets back LH starter Daniel Norris. He's ranked around #20ish in the prospect charts. He's probably got a #2 type upside. He started five games in Toronto earlier this year, but was somewhat erratic (too many walks) and was sent to AAA. The team also gets catcher Max Pentecost. He was the Jays top pick last year (I believe was picked 10th overall). He's an athletic catcher and solid defender. Unfortunately, he's missed all of this season after suffering a torn labrum last October (he didn't get surgery until February). A torn labrum certainly is scary, so you'd have to feel confident that Pentecost would rebound. These two additions are guys who aren't at peak value for Toronto. But I like the upside of both, so that's who you target. Pentecost potentially fills the organization's need of an everyday catcher down the road, while Norris would immediately go into our rotation, and provide some serious upside - something our rotation lacks. Toronto gets guys that can help them over the next couple of years without breaking the bank. Toronto is a team who's window is now. Bautista, Martin, Encanarcion, Donaldson, Dickey, Buehrle, Reyes - these guys are vets, many into their 30s. The GM wants to keep his job. He needs to win. Now's the time to strike and get some young talent from them. And the club still has some nice young arms, Sanchez is doing good in the majors, plus they have Jeff Hoffman and Sean Reid-Foley in the lower rungs of the minors - so it's not like they are just giving away their entire future. Toronto could really use a solid starter as well. I doubt Lohse and Garza would interest them - they need quality, and both are expensive. But you never know. More likely you could send them Peralta, who would be a needed quality arm. The return would have to start with Hoffman and/or Reid-Foley - but that's an entirely other idea. And it all goes on the assumption the club would be willing to trade Wily.
  3. Such an immensely flawed player. Yes, Dominguez has some power, but he's a bad hitter. Always has been - even in the minor leagues (he has a .699 OPS for his career at AAA, including .660 this year). He's got 4 walks on 188 plate appearances - at Fresno. Is this the best we could do? Wang wasn't anything special, but at least he had some sort of promise. Why not just get rid of Cotts? It's not like he's part of the future. Perhaps the team just doesn't see anything in Wang. It can understand that. But it seems too early to give up on the guy - especially when there are other players who just don't have a future on the club. Don't get it.
  4. In all seriousness, the club could really get nailed hard for something like this. This is an FBI investigation - not just some piddly complaint. It's corporate espionage - and someone is going to get nailed. As someone noted, you could see some lost draft picks, that sort of thing.
  5. Pretty much. No matter what team Braun is traded to (if he's traded), he's going to get a big ovation for his first home at bat. Even St. Louis. I don't see any fan base having a negative reaction to their team acquiring Braun in the middle of the season for a playoff push. If I'm Doug, I tell them Matz or Wheeler and they take the whole contract (non deferred portion) and we'll call it a deal. Pass on Wheeler. Coming off TJ surgery, plus you'd only control him for 3-4 years. Mats you'd get for at least six.
  6. I'm not confident that any team would really want Braun (contract, most hated man in baseball after A-Rod, injury history, pr nightmare). But the Mets could really use a big bat. Braun would fit them really well. I don't see anyone wanting Ryan for so many reasons, but maybe I'm too pessimistic. I suppose it only takes one team to make a deal in a moment of weakness. I should note that Braun's contract might not be that huge of a deal - a big consideration for a team like the Mets who seem to be very money conscious. Braun's already been paid his $10M signing bonus. That leaves $95M - or $19M a year on average. However, he has deferred payments totally $18M that run for 10 years (I believe starting around 2023). Thus, his salary is only $15M a year from 2016-20 (I think there's a $5M opt out for the following season). If the team does take on $25-30M in salaries, such as Neise and Cuddyer, that makes the payouts a lot less formidable for the Mets. They'd actually save money in 2015 and 2016 by such a swap. In the long run, they only pay Braun $14-15M a year - even with the deferred payments (which are interest free).
  7. Those are the worst community chest/chance cards in Monopoly. nice. when we were little we took those out of the game. everyone hated them.
  8. Oh really? You mean it wasn't such a crazy idea to think we'd be a fit with the Twins? Lol If it was such a crazy idea I don't think I'd be talking about it.
  9. Jon Heyman is reporting the Twins are interested in a bat - probably an OF. Gomez and maybe even Parra might interest them. The latter might be more inline with what Minnesota is willing to give up.
  10. In all the discussion about Jungmann, it was nice to see him do well and get the win. Has to be pretty special for the guy.
  11. Agree that it's silly to give up on Scooter - but there are some red flags. It wasn't just one month of poor play. He struggled the 2nd half of last year (although nagging injuries bothered him). 2015 is a lost year, so let the guy show he belongs. If he fails, like you noted above, Segura could be moved to 2B in the future when Arcia is ready. To me, Scooter needs to show he can adjust to major league pitching. I think he came up and surprised people. He doesn't look dangerous, but he makes good contact and can really drive a ball left in the zone. But as time passed, Scooter's numbers have dropped. It might be a sign that pitchers are adapting - exploiting his aggressiveness. Why throw him strikes when he swings at so much junk? None of this is anything shocking. This happens to lots of players. It's Scooter's job to make himself a better player.
  12. Here's how to could move forward. Accept the rebuild is going to happen. This year will be tough, so will 2016, probably 2017. With that in mind, the team needs to look at the roster and say who will part of our 2018 team (and beyond). If a player does not show up on that list, they should seriously be considered as trade bait. It doesn't mean we have to deal a player - but the value of keeping him should be seriously debated. The Players Lucroy - He's gone after 2017, so deal him. The team could look at a short extension, but we should realize any extension would likely be Luc in his decline phase (ages 32-34ish). Guys like McCann and Molina are now 31 and 32, respectively, and their ages are starting to show. It doesn't mean they aren't still good players - just not the type they were at age 28. Maldonado - He's a guy the team has signed for low cost through 2016, and would be still controled through 2017 via arbitration. He's not going to bring much in trade, but he could be the kind of player the team holds onto as a way to help nurture our younger pitchers in the next few years. If you extend Lucroy, Maldonado can either be kept or dealt - just depends on what someone will give you for him. Keeping him isn't - at this time - really blocking a younger player or costing us that much. Lind - Deal when you get a good offer. Not sure how much he'll net the team, but unloading his salary is good, and we might be able to get something worthwhile in return. A-Ram - Deal if someone wants him, otherwise he plays out the year and is gone. You probably won't get anything more than a little salary relief. Gomez - Deal when you get a good offer. He'll bring back some quality prospects. Braun - I honestly don't think he has much trade value, and the team would have to swallow a lot of his contract. That said, you never know. He has already been paid the $10 million signing bonus, so that's off the books. If I'm correct, he then makes $15M a year from 2016-20 (there is also $18M deferred over a 10 year run that starts some time in the early 2020s). If the club kicked in $30M of his salary ($5M annually plus I believe there's a $5M buyout for the 2021 season), that gets the outlay to only $10M a year. Perhaps someone would go for that - but it's questionable. Too many injuries and too much bad publicity have made Braun a pariah. No team would want the headache of having him. For that reason, I think he ends up staying in Milwaukee. Parra - Deal as soon as you get a decent offer. Not going to get you a ton, but it's better than nothing. Segura - Deal as soon as you get a decent offer. Sardinas can play SS, Scooter goes back to 2B. Segura is only controlled through 2018 - so having him through the rebuild doesn't make a lot of sense when we have alternatives (if Sardinas flops, Rivera is waiting, then Arcia). He's a good - not great - player. So if we can get some quality, younger assets, do it. Lohse - Deal as soon as you get a decent offer. Might have to kick in some cash to facilitate the deal. Garza - Deal as soon as you get a decent offer. Might have to kick in some cash to facilitate the deal. Peralta - He's under control through 2018, so he's on the cusp of being part of what we hope is our next good team. That said, he's a quality player, and will hopefully only improve. I would try and get him signed to an extension, buying out a year or two of his free agent years. If you could extend him through 2020, it's only his age 31 season, so he'd still be in his prime years. If he doesn't want to do an extension, look to trade. No point in keeping him if he's only going to leave the moment we look like we might be good. Broxton - Deal as soon as you get a decent offer. Might have to just cut him. Cotts - Deal or cut if no one wants him. K-Rod - Deal as soon as you get a decent offer. Kintzler - Let go if you can't trade. No point in paying him arby type numbers next season. Khris Davis - He's controlled through 2019, so hang on to him. Let's see if he becomes part of the solution. If he does well, he's our LF for the next few years. Or he could be a valuable trade chip if the club develops a better option. Going Forward C - If you deal Lucroy, you get someone to share the catching duties with Maldonado, who doesn't seem to do well with a big workload. A long term solution is needed, either via trading for a quality prospect or drafting a top player. 1B - Rogers and Clark platoon. See how they do into next year. Something has to be done to improve the future of this position. Could be a position move (Braun, Coulter, Roche) or perhaps acquire a prospect in all the myriad of trades we make. 2B - Scooter. If he flounders over the next 1.5 years, you move Sardinas or Rivera there (assuming those guys appear worthwhile). SS - Sardinas shows what he can do into 2016, Arcia is ticketed here for 2017 (maybe even a little earlier). If he plays well, Sardinas can slide over the 2B if necessary, or become a valuable trade chip. 3B - What a black hole. Need to address via trade/draft. OF - For now, CF goes to Shane Peterson, Logan Schafer, or whatever other mediocre option you have or can dredge up. Plan on Tyrone Taylor for 2017, but that's a tentative plan as Taylor hasn't progressed as a hitter as much as I'd like to see. Braun and Davis man RF and LF. By 2017, you can consider Clint Coulter (might be 2018) and Michael Reed. For pitching, you just have to give people chances. 2016 will be brutal, but more options will emerge by 2017. By 2017 potential starters: Nelson, Fiers, Peralta (unless traded), Cravy, Wagner, Hall, Lopez, Jungmann, Thornburg, Hobbs Johnson By 2017, the potential bullpen is: Jeffress, Smith, Blazek, Knebel, Goforth, Pena, Hellweg, Strong, Magnifico, plus some other guys I don't know much about like Ross and Chapman. Plus there will be some guys moved from the rotation to the bullpen. Then there's the guys you trade for. Gomez and Lucroy will net a couple of top prospects each. Segura will get a good player as well. If you put Peralta on the market, he'll net some quality guys tool. That could easily net you 5-7 top 100 type players - a serious infusion of talent into the system. Lind, K-Rod, Parra, Lohse, Garza and the other short timers probably won't get a ton - but there's still the chance to snag a decent player or two for those guys. But dealing the big players - Gomez, Luc, Segura, maybe Peralta - would land a serious batch of prospects. Some would be ready now, others down the road. But the idea is to load up the system with as high upside talent as possible. I think the concept of high upside players is critical. Getting a #4 starter isn't 'high upside'. Getting a relief pitcher isn't 'high upside'. To become winners, we need all-star type players. At this time, the guys we have coming up aren't all-star caliber - with the exception of maybe Arcia. That doesn't mean some of our current prospects and players can't become all-stars at some point - just that there aren't prospects like Braun and Price coming up through the system. Those are the kinds of players we need to add. The club could also look to fill a few needs - example go after a few marginal prospects like Garin Cechini or Kyle Kubitza - both 3B with limited upside - but guys who might fill the 3B slot for a time. Otherwise, use your high draft position to continue to add high upside guys. And don't be afraid to spend internationally to add more players. With payroll low, we could push some of our money into this area. PS - Sorry for the long post. I was being comprehensive and it just kept going.
  13. What's Maldonado's form? A low .600s OPS? He had a nice 2012, but the trendline is bad since then. I'm not sure we've established Scooter's level yet either. Maldonado had a .700+ OPS in 2012 and 2014. If he could even get to a mid .650 OPS its way more than what he's doing now. Getting in better shape might help. I think Scotter hitting .280-.290 isn't crazy. It might not happen, but these are the kinds of things the Brewers need to happen.
  14. I was thinking this same thing. We have no 3B in the minors. Chisenhall is controlled through 2017, so he might be the kind of player who could fill a hole in the roster for a few years. I guess it comes down to evaluating the guy, and the club seeing some value there. I don't know enough about him or have I seen much of him. I think And That advocated going after him before 2014.
  15. If Peralta and Nelson were having great seasons I would worry, but how can they possibly think they can contend in 2016 with the rotation they will have next year? Heck, if Peralta repeated the season he had in 2014 and Nelson was close to that you may even be able to convince me they could retool and compete next year. Instead, you have a rotation that is almost impossible to predict, and big question marks at LF and 3B. There's no way they can believe the team can compete with the rotation so up in the air. Can they? People can talk themselves into a lot of things. Here's what I could pitch to you: 1. You shed the salaries of A-Ram, Cotts, Broxton, Lohse, Parra - that's roughly $45M. Raises (either by existing contracts or arbitration) will likely eat up $20M (Braun, K-Rod, Maldonado, Lucroy, Segura, Gomez, Smith (I think he's arby eligible next year), Peralta). That leaves you with $25M to spend - assuming spending is roughly at the same level as this year. You have significant holes at 3B (A-Ram), and the rotation (Lohse), plus the bullpen might need an arm or two. And some depth signings might be in order. 2. Fill your holes with one-year (maybe two-year) contracts (Aaron Harang or Dave Freese, for example), and you're not incurring too much long term commitments. 3. Count on good health - no major injuries like Lucroy has experienced this year. And guys who have had injury issues in past manage to avoid them (Lind, Braun, Gomez). 4. Count on improvements from young players - Davis, Sardinas, Peralta, Nelson, etc. 5. Count on certain players returning to form - Garza, Scooter, Maldonado, etc. 6. Hope a couple of rookies or cheap signings pan out (sort of like Blazek emerging this year as a solid bullpen part). This means the club is a lot like this year's team. As noted, it's counting on rebounds and improvements from some players, and good health. The rotation (Garza, Fiers, Nelson, Peralta, FA guy, plus Cravy, Jungmann and Wagner as fallbacks) could be average-ish. If the bats pick up, the hitting could be better than average. Add in a little luck, and it's a team with a shot at the Wild Card. Also, I can argue that if things don't go well in the first half, you can look to place key vets - Lucroy, Gomez, Lind, Segura, etc. - on the trade block at this time. Yes, the return probably isn't as good as if you did the deal this summer or in the off season, but you could still get some decent players. Did I convince you? Personally, I think too many stars have to align for the team to be a contender next year. It's not impossible, just improbable, in my opinion.
  16. Greinke's trade was really a dump of a player that was obviously going to leave in a couple of months - combined with the fact the team was out of the race. It made no sense to keep him. If he had another year on his contract, there's no way we deal him. K-Rod was pretty much in the same boat as Greinke. He was likely leaving at the end of the season, so it was keep him for two more months and get nothing, or get what we could. Plus, the return was pretty minimal. Both trades are, technically examples of us dumping vets, but the team really wasn't making much of a hard choice here. In the end, the only reason these guys were dealt was the team was doing poorly, and their contracts were up.
  17. I just hope baseball changes the way the draft operates. 1. Have picks slotted for pay. Simple as that. 2. Let teams trade picks. I'm not sure if I would want to force players to commit to the draft, but it is something to consider. I like leaving options for the players to go to college - or return to college - if they don't get selected where they expected. But on the other hand, most of them should be able to get a decent handle on where they'll get picked, so in some ways, I want to say 'make a decision and live with it'.
  18. The thing with the Gallardo deal is that it's the first time we dealt an established veteran player for prospects since (I'm guessing) Lyle Overbay. Maybe we could consider Gomez a 'prospect' - since he was still so young and developing. Perhaps I'm forgetting someone. I should point out that the Gallardo deal happened because the club felt they had a replacement in Nelson. I suspect a big reason we haven't dealt established vets for prospects is that we've rarely had replacements ready to step in - which is an indictment against our player development department.
  19. I am a bit tired of hearing this. It has been made pretty clear through rumors and the things that Doug Melvin has said that this team is selling at the deadline. Not only that but rebuild has been thrown out there a lot. How extreme is anyone's guess, but the joke about stringing together wins and thinking they have a chance is a bit annoying at this point. The only thing ten wins in a row will do is make management think they might get more than a bag of balls for the players they trade. I wish I had our optimism. Sorry if my pessimism is annoying, but I have seen so few decisions aimed at building a team for long term success over the past few years. It wasn't that long ago that people were talking about getting back into the playoff race. Saying we are going to be sellers at the deadline can mean a whole lot of different things. My biggest fear is that management thinks we can contend in 2016. They hang on to everyone who should be dealt, then deal our players set to leave at the end of the year and call it rebuilding. Obviously, I think this team needs a big shakeup. I'm afraid any decisions we make will be half hearted, and lead to extended mediocrity. ----- Continued from: viewtopic.php?p=944805#p944805 Original Lead: viewtopic.php?f=63&t=32626
  20. Time for the club to win 10 in a row and make management think we still have a chance. Blue font off.
  21. Meta reportedly want to bring up , which is why they want to unload Gee or Neise. He's got a sub 2.00 ERA in Las Vegas - Segura isn't going to land him (but it can't hurt to ask). I'd target Marcos Molina. He'll be a top 100 guy within a year barring injury.
  22. Seconds before Doziers HR, I said watch him throw a fastball right down the middle, which the hitter will be waiting for. Boom. Just pathetic.
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