Matt Breen

I don't think Braun looks any different. To me, it just sounds like a way to bring up the PED thing without actually saying it.

Ken Rosenthal has a really good column about the Brewers (as well as Reds) situations. http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/milwaukee-brewers-cincinnati-reds-need-to-retool-now-to-keep-up-in-future-in-nl-central-051315 I say it's good because I agree with him. "So, if you're the Brewers and Reds, do you make yet another futile attempt at trying to compete as you fall further behind your division rivals? Or, do you acknowledge the uncomfortable reality of your position, and embark upon the long road to recovery? The answer should be clear. For the Brewers, it means listening to trade offers for every marketable veteran, including Lucroy."

Milwaukee's problem was that over the past few seasons we've put together a team that most sources would have pegged as around .500ish. It's not good enough to win, but not bad enough to make you blow the thing up. Ownership needed to either go all in and spend more money - or have the stones to start over. We took neither path, and ended up with mediocrity. I can't fault a team for willfully losing money - even if it is to help the team win. It's bad business. And I can't fault them for not blowing up the team - who wants to go through a rebuild? That takes years - and isn't guaranteed by any means. So we have the middle ground. And thus the continuing float in mediocrity. We end up with too many bad/aging/fading/never good players, insufficient depth and few resources to address problems that arise during the season. Sure, every year if we squint hard enough we can see the Wild Card, but it's a lot harder than it seems to get from 81 to 88 wins. This path can, very easily, be followed into 2016. We can hang on to Lind, K-Rod, Garza and Gomez, count on a full season of Lucroy, a healthier Braun, etc. Maybe add a free agent or two. .500 isn't crazy. But is it crazy to keep going down the same path, which has netted us little in the long run - and promises to keep us on the same path for years to come?

Amen. The last two years have been so frustrating.

You jinxed him!

Out of curiosity, I looked at what the 17th pick in the draft was worth (the pick we gave up for signing Lohse). Used Baseball Reference. They had 50 years of picks listed. I ignored the last 5 years due to the fact those players are just starting to produce. My estimate is that when we signed Lohse, we could have (assuming good health) made a guess at producing 7.0-9.0 WAR. With that in mind, here's a look at the players picked 17th who have a WAR above 5.0 for their career. Player/bWAR Roy Halladay - 64.6 Cole Hamels - 42.7 Gary Matthews - 30.1 Charles Nagy - 25.3 Jeromy Burnitz - 19.7 Cal Eldred - 16.2 Brian McRae - 14.1 Dennis Rasmussen - 11.4 David Murphy - 10.4 A.J. Pollock* - 8.5 Brad Lidge - 8.2 Nick Esasky - 8.2 Steve Brye - 5.5 Don Hood - 5.3 Of the 45 players selected 17th, here's some results: - 69% never reaching the big leagues, or were a scrubs (producing anywhere from negative WAR to 3.1 WAR) - 51% didn't make the majors, or if they did, provide positive WAR - 18% become scrub major leaguers (0.1 to 3.1 WAR) - 27% ended up as good or better than Lohse (8 WAR or higher) - 22% were better than Lohse (10 WAR or higher) - 11% of an all-star (top five guys made all-star teams) - 5% chance of getting a superstar (Hamels and Halladay) * I included Pollack in the '10 WAR or higher' group due to his youth, and the prediction he will reach this level of production. I realize this isn't very scientific, but I was sort of wondering what we missed out on with giving up the draft pick for signing Lohse. Essentially, 2/3 of the picks wash out. A small percentage are contributors, but don't reach the level of what was expected of Lohse. Roughly 1/4 of the picks are as good or better than what Lohse was expected to do. Again, this is not designed to show a right or wrong way. Just how things turned out. And even that is flawed (but interesting). There's the simple fact that players produce their WAR over many years. And I assign some anticipated WAR from Lohse - maybe that's too high or two low - and there's no real thought to a potential injury to him. So it's not a great comparison, but it is what it is. Essentially, the Brewers took a 7-9 WAR player and swapped him for a draft pick that had a 1/4 of being as good or better - and varying odds of having the player be a lot better. I don't know what's a better bet. There's that tantalizing chance of landing Roy Halladay - tempered by the fact that 2/3 of the players do squat. What's better? The money is interesting as well. You give up $33M to get the 7-9 WAR (actually a pretty nice deal). How much a player would make (signing bonus for being the 17th pick), and then salaries in arby years, really depends on how good he is.

I think Gomez can certainly get more than one top 100 type player. Samardzija netted a top 10 player, and Gomez is produced much better numbers (if looking at WAR) than Samardzija. I question whether Fiers would generate much interest. He's crazy erratic - I just don't see a contender counting on him being an upgrade.

In a deal with Seattle, I'd start with Alex Jackson, the 6th pick in the draft last year, and Taijuan Walker. Jackson is only 19, and like Monte Harrison, is struggling at A ball this year. Yes, he's a long way off, but I'm okay with that. Walker is one of those guys who's hype has often been better than his performance. However, he is only 22, and he's been pushed pretty quickly by Seattle, reaching the majors at age 20. Baseball people feel he's got a ton of upside. I want the upside. I'd try and sneak Danny Hultzen out of Seattle as well. I honestly don't know if he can pitch anymore, but he had the kind of upside that we need. Whether he can come back is another matter. But he's worth taking a flyer on. I don't know if anything more can be had, but 1B/3B DJ Peterson is interesting. Big power guy. Might not hit quite enough. I'd happily send back Lohse or Garza to fill Walker's spot in the rotation.

Of the position players, no one deserves any sort of consideration except for Lind. However, he has some stiff competition at 1B, including Rizzo, Gonzalez, Votto, Goldschmidt and Freeman. He's right in the mix with them, but with so many guys, it might be tough. None of our starting pitchers is worthy, so that leaves the bullpen - meaning K-Rod. Like Lind, he has lots of competition - at least a half dozen guys are just as worthy. I don't think anyone else can come close at this time. Perhaps Carlos Gomez will get going. The NL outfielders have been pretty lackluster - only 10 guys have an OPS over .800. In the end, I'll guess K-Rod.

Also, Sardinas is hitting .224 on the road vs .368 at Colorado Springs. It's hard to trust the Colorado stats.

That's tough to do. The Brewers have 48 games between now and July 1. To reach .500, they'd have to go 29-19 in that time span - a winning percentage of 60%. That's a pretty hefty goal. This team, even if things are going well, just isn't that good. Any climb back to .500 will probably be more gradual. If you give the team until August 1 (74 games), they need to go 42-32 in that time frame. Still a winning percentage of 57%. Tough, but more manageable. If they keep up that 57% for the rest of the year, they reach 85 wins - in wild card range. Again, not impossible, but difficult. Winning 57% of your games makes you one of the top 5-6 teams in the league. I realize we could go on a nice streak, but on the flip side, we could also go on a losing streak as well. Again, I just don't think we are good enough to sustain that kind of winning.

Well said. Interesting stuff. Thank you.

And the Mariners have got to be feeling the heat. This club is built to win now. Houston is playing great, but you have to wonder how long that will hold up. The rest of the division is week. I could see them going all in. Right now, they could use Luc, Gomez and Lind in their lineup.

The team could get clever with this kind of thing. I know players don't want to sit there for hours and take millions of photos, so maybe do something like have one or two (or whatever number works) players before the game participate, then randomly pick a few hundred people to go on the field (or wherever) to do photos for an hour. That would be pretty fun. Every paying ticket coming through the gate between 2-3 hours before game time gets some kind of scratch off or something like that. Winners just go to a designated location and get in line for a photo. Kind of a fun incentive to enter the park early (and spend money!).

If the Brewers win 57% of the rest of their games it will reach 85 wins. Right now, that would put the team right in the mix for a wild card. Of course, outside of the division leaders, only two teams are above .500 (and barely at that with winning % of .515 and .530 each). The tough part - only 4 teams last year won more than 57% of their games. For a club to win at that clip is pretty tough (over a full season it gets you 92 wins).

I remember Richie Hebner, a 3B/1B who played back in the 70s and 80s, was called the Gravedigger. So how'd he get that bad-ass name? He dug graves in the off season at a cemetery.

Everyone brings up a lot of great points, and they ALL are probably part of the reason for the rash of TJ surgeries. - Kids throw earlier and more often - Players throw harder - Players throw pitches that put more stress on the arm - More complete positional (and the DH) - pitchers can't 'relax' against a weaker batters as in the past (example, in 1970 shortstops had a .638 OPS. In 2014, they had a .689 OPS). These - and other things - probably just add up to make this the 'norm'.

How can the ump blow that call. He's staring at it. Gomez was screwed out of a double.

Crappy jump and route by Braun. Even worse play by Maldonado. We just gave away a run.

Tampa will likely lose Drew Smyly for the year. He has a torn labrum. MRI set for Monday. He was the key player Tampa got in the David Price trade. Tough year for Tampa's starters.

I think it all depends on how well those two guys can start playing. Justin Masterson was playing poorly last year, then at the deadline netted OF James Ramsey from the Cardinals. Ramsey is a solid, but unspectacular prospect. Sort of a C+/B- type guy. That's just one example. Nothing wrong with that kind of player - some really can blossom into starters. Others can be contribute as back ups, relief arms. You need those kind of guys to pan out. As some people have argued, the team could target players deeper in the minors - guys who might have more upside, but being so young are hard to judge. Garza, I think, is tougher to trade due to his contract. He really needs to pitch better to attract a suitor. No one wants to take on $30M in salary for a guy like him unless they feel he's going to play better. Lohse has a nice track record of 4-5 years of solid pitching, plus the expiring contract. He's not a big risk for a team. He's been pitching better, so someone could see him as a nice option due to the short term commitment. It can't hurt either that he's a solid hitter, plus has a good rep as a the kind of guy who has a positive influence on other pitchers. Let's hope clubs need the arms - the more tight races, the better. It will only boost the value of these guys.

I'll never forget the Brewers signing Franklin Stubbs to a two year contract 25 years ago. It after the 1990 season, and the club gave him, if I recall, something like a two-year, $4.4 million deal. He had had a career year in '90, hitting 23 HR and producing an .809 OPS. But the guys had done zilch before that. Plus, he was a bad defender. I remember just shaking my head at the time. If I remember correctly, the deal was done at the Winter Meetings, and the club was looking to add some power, but couldn't find anyone who wanted to come to Milwaukee. They panicked and ended up going after Stubbs. Predictably, he sucked - a .652 OPS with the team. In the grand scheme of things a bad two year contract isn't a killer. But for some reason I"ll never forget it. I think it was tough because the team was decent at that time, and a good signing might have helped us actually make the playoffs.

Tampa will lose Alex Cobb for the next year or so due to upcoming Tommy John surgery. Cobbs has been a very good pitcher the last couple of years when healthy (he's suffered a concussion and an oblique injury), posting ERAs under 3.00. He has, however, only made 22 and 27 starts, respectively.

Is the blue font missing?

Kiley McDaniel also did a mock draft - up through the 13th pick - so no Brewer speculation. But it gives you some idea of who might be gone. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-far-too-early-2015-mlb-mock-draft/