rickh150
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Everything posted by rickh150
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Who is still out there and useful to the Brewers
rickh150 replied to Jopal78's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Granderson and Kinsler would come cheap.... prospect wise. -
Who is still out there and useful to the Brewers
rickh150 replied to Jopal78's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Agreed wholeheartedly! A new version of Tony Plush could make a profound difference. -
I'd love to say, "Way to go, Bob!" Great Brewers fan and all that... doesn't sell to Cubs fans. He is a better Brewers fan than me, no doubt. Loyal thru thick and thin. But, The claims are outrageous! Never missed a pitch of Brewers baseball? A pitch? By radio or live ( does he have tv, by the way?). He blasts Braun, the organization, and ownership. He says you can't rank one fan over the other, but then puts himself at top of list. His dad is in the emergency room, for crying out loud and this dude is waiting for the extra inning game to finish? Yeah, I'll jump on the bash pile here, Brewers fan or not. I will be looking for him often in the crowd when a lefthanded batter is up and the camera angle shows his seat.
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Who is still out there and useful to the Brewers
rickh150 replied to Jopal78's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Small markets don't win 95 games consistently. The best one is KC who had a great 2 year window surrounded by borderline playoff teams. I'd rather have DS say we are building for a championship run of a few years. -
Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
rickh150 replied to A Swing and A Drive's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I agree with this. It's not realistic to believe every top prospect in their system will pan out and be contributing starters in 3 years. I disagree with setting 2020 as the target and not deviating from that. What if somehow they remain hot for the next month and a half and are still at the top of the standings? I know this is also a bit unrealistic, but who knows...what if that happens? I know I'm in the minority on this message board when it comes to this train of thought, but I say you sacrifice some of those prospects, bolster the starting rotation and make a run. I would rather do that than hope that these unknown commodities in the farm system can put us in the same position 3 years from now. If they start to falter this year (which is likely), but come back next year and in our contending position in July 2018, then go for it then. My belief is that basically any time you are in playoff position in July, regardless of what your expectations were at the start of the season or where you are in the "rebuilding" phase, you should be looking to make trades to win now. Again, I know that's not a popular thought on this board and many will argue that you can't build a consistent contender that way. I understand that argument, but I also think there is way too much confidence put in some of the prospects when the reality is that you are lucky if 50% of those prospects hit and that there is no guarantee that you will be a consistent contender by waiting on the farm system to mature. I don't have a problem with a 3-5 year rebuilding plan if during the "rebuilding" years the team never contends, but if the team has some unexpected success in one of the rebuilding years, don't blow that opportunity. Agree with what Patrick said in May... we still have the opportunity to pick up spare parts for dirt prices thru the waiver wire. Still an opportunity to make playoffs, if not division champs then wild card. -
Can anyone defend him leading off? ANYONE!????
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So, in a nutshell, you refuse to take an objective stance on this overall situation (big picture thinking) because your opinion of Villar is emotional in nature. They both hit leadoff the vast majority of the time. In the leadoff spot Villar is slashing 232/290/663 and Kinsler 244/323/710. Again, I ask, how is trading 3yrs of a cheap, controlled Villar for 2 months of Kinsler a significant upgrade to boost us into the playoffs, especially when factoring in what we can get in return for Villar if he rebounds next year? And I absolutely believe he'll rebound next year; maybe not to his 2016 levels but he without question has the ability to easily be a top 10 producing MLB 2b where only Dee Gordon rivals is speed on the bases and maybe a handful have his power too (and he's a switch hitter). Defensive metrics don't even take into account a player shifting. They're based upon someone playing straight up and the Brewers are in like the top 3 for teams that shift. Not saying Kinsler isn't better defensively than Villar, because he clearly is much better, but defensive metrics are far from being accurate. And how often is his defense going to impact the game over a 2 month span? Haven't heard many complaints about Villar's defense since April. De Jesus is a 30yr old who's had very limited success at the MLB level - he's nothing but org depth. Decisions are based on a myriad of variables. Dubon has 31 games in AAA. If Brinson or Phillips aren't getting every day PT in CF over Broxton then there's no way Dubon is over Villar/Sogard/Perez. Perez is great playing 2-3x per week and gets much worse when playing full time. Villar has a much bigger upside than all these guys and he's 26 - that's why he gets the leash, that's why he's still in the lineup. Because he's performing terribly this year means we should throw all his potential into the garbage can for 2 months of a 35yr old who is barely outperforming him offensively in the leadoff spot? Nobody was talking about making a trade for a position player - it was all about Quintana/Gray and pen arms. Then once Quintana/Gray were over there was a rumor involving Kinsler then everybody piles on Villar/Sogard. Again, whichever way the wind blows on any given day... Kinsler's advanced stats has him hitting better than his avg/obp/slug. His line Drive rate is very high, as one poster said. To me Kinsler's contact rate/k rate/ top line defense make up for Villar'sperceived value in the following seasons. Also, I would like Kinsler because of his veteran presence, well-known good team player/mentor, gritty hustler and example to the rest of team. He'll make pitchers throw a few extra pitches, like Sogard did in his haydays this season. Also, if you are going to bash me for not valuing Villar's future, do not forget Kinsler's recent past that had him hitting 29 HRs last year, and Detroit is not a hitter's park like Miller. Put Kinsler in a pennant race and this could chancge his output too. His pricetAg for next year (10 mil) is manageable, and Villar's will be going up steadily as well in the next few seasons because of his 2016 season.
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So, in a nutshell, you refuse to take an objective stance on this overall situation (big picture thinking) because your opinion of Villar is emotional in nature. They both hit leadoff the vast majority of the time. In the leadoff spot Villar is slashing 232/290/663 and Kinsler 244/323/710. Again, I ask, how is trading 3yrs of a cheap, controlled Villar for 2 months of Kinsler a significant upgrade to boost us into the playoffs, especially when factoring in what we can get in return for Villar if he rebounds next year? And I absolutely believe he'll rebound next year; maybe not to his 2016 levels but he without question has the ability to easily be a top 10 producing MLB 2b where only Dee Gordon rivals is speed on the bases and maybe a handful have his power too (and he's a switch hitter). Defensive metrics don't even take into account a player shifting. They're based upon someone playing straight up and the Brewers are in like the top 3 for teams that shift. Not saying Kinsler isn't better defensively than Villar, because he clearly is much better, but defensive metrics are far from being accurate. And how often is his defense going to impact the game over a 2 month span? Haven't heard many complaints about Villar's defense since April. De Jesus is a 30yr old who's had very limited success at the MLB level - he's nothing but org depth. Decisions are based on a myriad of variables. Dubon has 31 games in AAA. If Brinson or Phillips aren't getting every day PT in CF over Broxton then there's no way Dubon is over Villar/Sogard/Perez. Perez is great playing 2-3x per week and gets much worse when playing full time. Villar has a much bigger upside than all these guys and he's 26 - that's why he gets the leash, that's why he's still in the lineup. Because he's performing terribly this year means we should throw all his potential into the garbage can for 2 months of a 35yr old who is barely outperforming him offensively in the leadoff spot? Nobody was talking about making a trade for a position player - it was all about Quintana/Gray and pen arms. Then once Quintana/Gray were over there was a rumor involving Kinsler then everybody piles on Villar/Sogard. Again, whichever way the wind blows on any given day... Again, I wanted to trade for Kinsler.... early, like at the height of our winning against Phillies at home! The wind was blowing the same direction for me that day as it is now. Villar is a fairly dumb (baserunning instinct wise) player, who is not steady in the field( albeit it is his first year at 2B), who strikes out way too much without taking a different approach with two strikes. He is NOT looking simply to get on base in the leadoff position. He is swinging 2-0 and 3-1 when really with his crappy hitting should be taking a pitch to maximize his value of getting on base and stealing a bag....242 OBP leading off an inning. My guess is that OBP would be roughly the same if he never took the bat off his shoulder! I don't like hating here.. I still want the man to succeed and help us win. Yet, other guys can do a better job in my opinion. I complained about him last year too when he was hitting well so I guess I just don't like his skill set.
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Winning formula for completing "The Rebuild"
rickh150 replied to A Swing and A Drive's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
No big FA are a part of the rebuild. None. That is why getting TOR pitchers in a trade or developing are own are so important. -
As a recruiter I'm always interested in learning about what people do for a living and what led them down that path. Interesting how there's zero mention of what his career was, especially retiring at 43 and stating he worked for 28yrs (starting at 15yrs old) and doing all this while supposedly never missing a game. Great point.... the more you dig, the stranger it becomes.
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Very odd he holds a grudge for a professional ball player not calling him on the phone and apologizing to him. Of all things. He also zings the owner and organization in the article!
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No cotton pickin way that he has seen or heard EVERY cotton pickin pitch. Every pitch while playing softball? Playing softball AND hearing EVERY pitch? he's listening to the game while standing on 2B? He might have heard A pitch from every game, but common!
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Assuming both players would clear revocable waivers, which is doubtful. One would need to clear, the other could be claimed by Brewers/Tigers.
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You think Villar potentially could be pretty bad forever so why don't you think it's possible that Kinsler could continue to decline the rest of this season like he's done? Outside of June, Kinsler has slashed 237/317/664 this year. As pathetic as that is, it's an upgrade to Villar. But it still absolutely sucks. Giving up a 26yr old Villar with 3yrs of control left for 2 months of that most likely isn't going to put this team over the hump. I get people wanting Villar to have limited playing time the next 2 months and if Stearns wants to acquire Kinsler then fine, but trading Villar to do so is absurd and that's been my point. And I think it's ridiculous that people loved Sogard all year but since he's struggled in his 6 starts, since missing 3wks with an injury, he's immediately become the mediocre journeyman he's always been. Whichever way the wind is blowing that day I guess... Sogard/Kinsler are short term fixes. I never thought these guys were going to be the 2B for the next 6 years. I would like to see this tandem there thru 2018, however, until guys like Diaz or Dubon are ready. Right now, They play better defense then Villar, make more contact, walk more, and now they are hitting considerably better than Villar while both are slumping! What you are doing by leaving Villar in is saying to the rest of the team, "Villar might be better at some point. We are going to roll with him. Yet, the majority of you guys actually need to play fairly well or you're heading back to AAA." Meanwhile we have Dejesus hitting .360 at AAA who can't get a call-up. Everyone else plays well at AAA ( well, Wren has gotten screwed too) and can expect a call-up, but since Villar might turn it around in a year or two, we have to see this crappy play at leadoff for the majority of the season. Furthermore, I guess I could be convinced to let him stay part time in the lineup and at 2B if he hit 8th or 9th the rest of the year, and if we were willing to pinch hit for him (Has this ever happened?) in late inning situations. But, I am ready to move on... if he has value, trade him in August for spare parts.
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Kinsler's defense is better than about any 2B.... still. I can't find the defensive metrics used before, but it had him as tops this season. Kinsler walks at a decent rate. Kinsler doesn't strike out at a major rate, like the rest of our lineup. He is a true veteran, and we don't have many of those. Even when he is not hitting well, it beats Villar's putrid rates...... 178 avg leading off an inning. .242 OBP leading off inning. Really, I guess I am done with Villar. We can't send him down without exposing him to other teams (out of options), yet it's time to leave. I'd like to see how Dejesus and Dubon would do here, or even stick Perez at 2B for more at bats. I couldn't' stand Villar last year because of his inexcusable baserunning (unforced errors taking extra base regardless of outs/situation) even though his stats were great. It ticks me off that guys are flying up and down from AAA to majors and back at warp speed, but good ol Villar plays fairly regular, leading off many a game.
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Tigers want to dump salary & get younger while not losing ability to compete. Verlander & Kinsler are aging, production has dropped, and they eat a ton of salary. They are out of contention this season so sell off some old expensive assets to give you flexibility in the off season to work with. I could see Villar going to Detroit & getting hot again like he was last year. He has that ability to be that player. I agree with you that it makes sense for Detroit to want to do that. But how does that scenario make sense on the Brewers end? Lets say that next year Villar gets going again and produces something remotely similar to his 2016 (could even be 15-20pts less across the board) - he'll hit 16HR+ with 40SB+ and have 2yrs of control left. Wouldn't it put us in a much better position long-term to keep him and flip him after next year for a good return instead of trading him now for 2 months of Kinsler and an aging Verlander who's owed an absurd amount of money, has a no trade clause so probably won't get moved and eats a rotation spot when we have 3yrs of Nelson/Chase, 4yrs of Davies/Guerra, 6yrs of Hader/Woodruff + Ortiz/Burnes ready by the end of next year. Maybe Villar is pretty bad forever and Kinsler could help us get to the playoffs.
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In a way, DS would be Waaaaaaay more comfortable with a crap team. He could play his young guys, see who does well, decide on trade bait, etc. I know he wants to win, yet in a way it's getting in his way. I'm sorry but this OF carousel has to stop, one way or another. It makes zero sense when Kirk is up here. In my mind, Wren should be up here before Kirk, and Wren should not be here.
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Should Verlander be claimed by Brewers if/when put on waivers? If we do, Detroit could just give him to us, leaving us on the hook for his salary. Detroit could pull him back, keeping him. Or, a trade could be worked out with guys passing thru waivers. I can hardly see Detroit just giving us Verlander, even though giving us that bloated contract would be tempting. They would want something back.
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This still could happen.... straight up swap for Villar.
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I think this is said with the benefit of hindsight.... we were in pretty good shape at the break, then won our first series afterward. Noone knew at that time that losing the last game of that series would be the start of the massive slide of the next couple of weeks. I don't think anyone was sitting here on July 15th thinking that massive moves needed to be made right then and there. I started the Kinsler thread on July 18. Many others were ready to move on from Villar, especially from leadoff spot.
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First off filling holes at the All Star break would have helped us win 2 or 3 lost games. Filling holes at 2B and CF wouldn't have cost much based on what rentals are going for..... take a look at what the best bullpen rental (Neshek) cost prospect wise, the best rental bat (JD Martinez) cost prospect wise.... Injuries are playing a factor with the rotation over the last week. Woodruff is going to get a shot. Garza will be back shortly. Anderson will be back in 3 weeks. Hader could start, if wanted. It's not as dire as you make it to be.....

