rickh150

Really?

RR preached over aggressiveness and in my opinion, to a fault.

I have a solution. Be a fan of the Orioles. They have the least amount of steals at 13 and they have a different manager. Villar has run into 26 or 27 UNFORCED outs on the bases by himself this year...... AND it is miraculously STILL an issue the VERY NEXT time he gets aboard after sitting 2 games for his baserunning (Counsell mentioned something about him not following "rules" as well... Still not clear). How can you dismiss Counsell? Villar? CC is letting this guy be an absolute selfish tool on the bases! PUT UP A STOP SIGN and grow a spine!!!!!!! Villar has NO clue what is going on! Zero baseball sense. Just help him get better by telling him when a steal is not high reward/ low risk..... Yes, Sedar should literally walk to him every time he reaches and have a discussion with him, long enough until an umpire comes over and has to break it up. And if he simply won't listen and wants that SB or SB record regardless of team whatever, sit him, trade him, or take him out for dinner for a heart to heart..... Get to the bottom of this, pleaaaaaaase Brewer organization! Baltimore, huh? I'm the issue? See no evil, hear no evil.....

Went to game tonight.... First game of the new, improved Villar? Na.... First at bat.... He continues to hit... He hits a double down the line in left. He didn't know where the ball went and stood there without running for 2 or 3 seconds. Thankfully, it didn't cost us a base. Now, no one out, he attempts to STEAL 3RD WITH NO OUTS, but Elmore flies out to RF, preventing a tag to 3rd. After Elmore and Lucroy get out, guess o guess what happens? He takes off with 2 OUTS on a 3-2 pitch that Carter hits out of the par, 2 run HR. The sad thing is, however, ( besides him inexcusably stealing 3rd with two outs AGAIN), he did not take off stealing the the base like it was a straight steal..... He took off like it was a 3-2 pitch with men on first AND second!!!! Unreal! Later in the game he was a sitting duck in a probable contact play with 1 out and he being the runner on 3rd. Tough to blame him here, especially if he had to go on contact. Overall, he had a big hit to start the game and a really nice play at 2nd base, digging out a bad throw on a bunt attempt. Yet, he was a loose cannon on the bases. Nothing changed. The second time Villar got on base, I watched Sedar and saw him putting his arms and fists straight up for a long time when Villar was at second with no outs...... Stressing no outs, perhaps? Or was this a stop sign? Interesting and laughably sad.... The first chance he gets after sitting out two games for poor baserunning, he attempts to steal 3rd with no outs and two outs. Although Villar gets ripped for all this, the blame falls all on Counsell. Put up the stop sign, dude. Or.... Did CC pull Villar because he ignored stop signs? Did he ignore some tonight? Some questions still need to be asked by our media.

Villar said, after the game, that you cannot get thrown out when up 5-0..... He didn't mention anything about getting chucked at 3rd base with two outs. So this unbelievably might still be an issue! If he gets chucked at 2nd, there is no issue. He's trying to get into scoring position, even if down by 5. Is he understanding? Still, still, still..... Very questionable. Almost laughable if it wasn't so very sad.

Breaking them down: 3 at first, 5 at 3rd (!!) and 2 at home. By comparison, Lucroy, Braun and Carter have made a total of 8 outs on the bases. Recapping while waiting for the manager post game interview of the year....I think we're at 24 or 25 unforced mistakes on the bases for Villar. Roughly half were t-ball mistakes.

Ask and you shall receive. He's been pulled. A couple months late...... Interested in the post game talk with CC.

Not a fan of letting ANY reliever allow 5 straight base runners without an 8 run lead or so... Walking Bryant there? I see why, but there was only 1 out at the time, go ahead run..... Questionable. Anyone else sick of parading an endless supply of lefties to face other lefties in late inning situations???? Man, just giving this one away today.

Here, he is trying to steal, no doubt. If he gets into scoring position, a hit by a hot hitting Gennett gets two runs instead of one. The score is 4-2 then instead of 4-1, and it's more of a ball game again. This is an aggressive type of mistake (risk/reward) that I can live with, although it is frustrating.

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever. Interested in your source..... Came back to the computer after thinking about your stats. I can't see the 90% being true just on taking a 3-0 pitch. That means that pitchers are throwing strikes 10% of the time on 3-0 counts when many are just throwing "get me over" fastballs. That can't be. Perhaps batters are walking 90% of the time if they don 't swing AFTER getting a 3-0 count; even that seems high (although intentional walk #'s help). My guess is that the on base (walk) % for taking ON a 3-0 count is much closer to 40%, meaning the pitcher is throwing strikes 60% of the time. The on base % for those taking on 3-0 and then (if not walked already) hitting/walking/get out would be around 50 to 60%, just guessing. In any event, the obp is the number to look at in that 5 run scenerio, and the obp increases when taking a pitch on 3-0. Slept on it and realized the 90% is not talking about ball four occurring 90% of time, or on ALL at bats, with 3-0 count....... just at bats that have a result on the fourth pitch(out, BB, HBP, Sacrifice, reach on error). The AFTER 3-0 has splits of .307 BA and .750 OBP which takes into account a strike on pitch four (and/or pitch five).

Thank you.... Great source! Mind boggling numbers to support taking not just one pitch in this situation, but two. ( obp going down because guys are swinging 3-1). Although in this situation, no question the pitcher is very motivated to throw a strike.

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever. Interested in your source..... Came back to the computer after thinking about your stats. I can't see the 90% being true just on taking a 3-0 pitch. That means that pitchers are throwing strikes 10% of the time on 3-0 counts when many are just throwing "get me over" fastballs. That can't be. Perhaps batters are walking 90% of the time if they don 't swing AFTER getting a 3-0 count; even that seems high (although intentional walk #'s help). My guess is that the on base (walk) % for taking ON a 3-0 count is much closer to 40%, meaning the pitcher is throwing strikes 60% of the time. The on base % for those taking on 3-0 and then (if not walked already) hitting/walking/get out would be around 50 to 60%, just guessing. In any event, the obp is the number to look at in that 5 run scenerio, and the obp increases when taking a pitch on 3-0.

Hill was swinging, by the way..... Uh, I don't know.... Both Hill and coaches, I guess. Yet, ultimately, these strategy decisions fall on Counsell. I'm finding that manager and coaches do not have a good hold of player strategy. Maybe that is similar on other teams too, not sure. I say this partly because of my minute conversation with Ed Sedar last season... http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=63&t=33233&p=957632&hilit=Sedar#p957632 I personally think you're a chronic nitpicker of a rebuilding team. Brewers could win 15-0 each game for the next week and you'd be complaining because Counsell brought in Torres instead of Thornburg in game 4. I think you should stick to your softball dynasty. I'm not "nitpicking" the team's ERA, averages, players with lack of power, our starting 9, bullpen management, bunting abilities, etc. I'm pointing out our beloved team's obvious mental goofs and absolute mistakes on kindergarten baseball matters that the media ( until only recently-Tom H.) is failing to pointedly ask CC. Nothing to do with talent..... Everything to do with being smart, playing smart.... whether we have a good record or not, be it rebuilding or a playoff team. Also, thanks for the high praise for my softball team....... Undeserved.

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever. So wait you would rather have a walk than an extra base hit? Why take the walk when the extra base hit puts the player in a better position to score? Quick edit even after missing the strike at 3-0 this year on 3-1 counts batters are hitting this line: .375 .703 .675 1.378 Again another advantageous position for the batter. Every batter should be swinging at pitches that are in the strike zone and should not be looking at them when they are up in the count. I don't care if it is bases loaded bottom of the 9th and the count is 3-0. I want the batter swinging at that pitch if it is a strike the batter can handle. Anyone who puts up a take sign on that is just lunacy. Game situation is the key here... You are not mentioning it. Brewers were down by 5. A swing and homer, the best possible outcome, still has them down by 1. Rally is then kind of over.... Pitcher can work out of the stretch with no one on base. Although homer is great, taking a pitch there, like jericho clearly stated (great stat), doubles your chance of getting on base by NOT swinging 3-0! Let the pitcher hang himself in this GAME SITUATION. Being down 5, we need base runners. Whatever is the best odds of getting on base, take it. Taking a pitch ( or two if player's average is middling or poor) is the right move. Get the tying run to the plate and then the situation changes. Now, if it's a 4 run game, bases loaded, and someone with pop is up, I'm all for letting it rip 3-0. Game situation matters.

Hill was swinging, by the way..... Uh, I don't know.... Both Hill and coaches, I guess. Yet, ultimately, these strategy decisions fall on Counsell. I'm finding that manager and coaches do not have a good hold of player strategy. Maybe that is similar on other teams too, not sure. I say this partly because of my minute conversation with Ed Sedar last season... http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=63&t=33233&p=957632&hilit=Sedar#p957632

Except a hitter not being able to make split second decisions well on pitches being thrown at different spots, speeds, curves, etc., isn't quite the same as a player having time before a play even begins to know that he doesn't need to get to 3rd base. It would be more like a hitter with a 3-0 count, with the bases loaded, and 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th of a tied game swinging at the next pitch. You just don't do it, unless you're really REALLY sure you're going to get a hit. Besides Villar getting chucked at 3rd, another low moment, decision wise this year.... The day is July 3. The Brewers are down 9-4 in the ninth against Cards. Braun, Luc single. Carter is hit by pitch. On a 3-0 count, down 5 mind you,bases loaded, Hill is swinging 3-0 and fouls it back....... Down 5. A double play would kill the rally. A homer or walk are about the same thing here. Anyways, Hill does walk eventually. Kirk doubles and is stranded to lose 9-8. Although easy to gloss over because Hill walked, I couldn't believe that he swung. Like usual, I didn't hear from any a Brewer media if CC had take sign up or if Hill missed sign or if CC expected him not to swin, etc.

I don't buy that Villar's issues on the bases is out of him trying to increase personal stats, just like i don't think Carlos Gomez and his baserunning mistakes came out of him to increase personal stats. Both guys strike me as hard working types who simply lacked good baseball IQ when it came to really understanding time and place for being aggressive. That is a skill just like other aspects of the game are. There are plenty of baseball players who are smart baserunners, even if they aren't really fast or aren't base stealing types. Robin Yount for example was an excellent baserunner, even though he didn't steal lots of bases. I don't think he was taught those instincts as much as he had them. Managers can only do so much with players who struggle with certain aspects of the game. Look at hitters who simply refuse to be patient and take walks at a decent rate. A manager can tell a hitter over and over that he really needs to be more patient if he wants to be a better all around hitter, but many just won't be able to do it because patience is a skill. Same with baserunning. After we traded for Villar, I read about him on an Astros forum. One common response was that he had talent, but would make dumb baserunning mistakes. I'd bet that Villar struggled with making boneheaded mistakes in the minors also. Following a coach's sign at third to NOT steal a base is easy. Sending out a No Steal sign to the 3rd base coach is easy. Both lead to a runner becoming a smarter base runner. Correctable mistakes.... Instantly.

Exactly why this should be an issue this year- learning and development. We want our guys to get better in the second half so we will have a better 2017. I agree slack should be given, but Counsell has given him TONS of slack....... And guess what? Villar hasn't changed. Not a bit. As Dr. Phil would say, " Hey, Craig, how is that working for ya?" Just put up the blinking light stop sign at 3rd base with two outs for Villar. He hasn't learned that one yet and needs to so we can be better next year.

Who is calling for his spot? Putting up a stop sign in certain situations or even Sitting him a day isn't calling for his spot. Also, if you are "good enough", shouldn't you still be managed? Or are you saying that you can you be too good to be managed/changed into a better player? I can't stand the good outweighs bad argument. Giant Pet Peeve.... Just keep getting better. Limit and eliminate kindergarten mistakes is what we are after here, right? This shouldn't be an issue, right? I totally agree.

A different manager could fix this problem tomorrow, unlike our other issues (better starting pitching, better averages/OPS at the bottom of order, hitting with men on base, strike outs, etc.) I really hope you're not suggesting starting over with managers just to get Villar to stop stealing 3rd with 2 outs. The thing is, our other issues, are our real issues. Villar stealing 3rd with 2 outs, (I think he's been caught twice this entire year stealing 3rd with 2 out), has probably not cost us a run over the course of this season, much less a win. No one ever said it was good fundamental baseball. I even said he needs to clean that up over time. The thing is, this year, it doesn't matter. At all. Do you think maybe it's possible that right now, while it doesn't matter, Counsell wants to let one of his brightest young players make his own mistakes and learn from them himself over time and grow as a player right now and gradually adapt and learn his own limitations? Rather than getting up in his face and benching him and micromanaging his baserunning? Yesterday, it cost us a run and possible win. Gennett hit a homer to lead off the sixth. Villar got chucked at third for the third out in the 5th. We lost by one. Second, are you saying that Counsell shouldn't MANAGE this year because this year doesn't matter? When we "get good", then we should try to play good, fundamental baseball? If you have ever coached, you know it doesn't work this way. We get better because we play better fundamentally (not we play it our way and when we get good then we'll clean up the mistakes). CC could get his lesson across and manage to win the game by putting up the stop sign when Villar is on 2nd with 2 outs. Simple fix. Simple baseball. No micromanaging. Much better than having kindergarten mistakes cost us outs, wins, and credibility.

The stats speak for themselves...... Simply not smart team ball; if not smart team ball, then why does he do it? Logical next step to at least question.... I must have missed the report where he is stealing 3rd ( with 2 outs) to not pad stats, etc.

Tom H. is coming around...... http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/387113131.html

A different manager could fix this problem tomorrow, unlike our other issues (better starting pitching, better averages/OPS at the bottom of order, hitting with men on base, strike outs, etc.) Good idea. Let's fire Counsell tonight after the game. Again, an all or nothing comment... Some here are mother hens when protecting the player or team from fair criticism, no matter how on the spot the criticism is.

A different manager could fix this problem tomorrow, unlike our other issues (better starting pitching, better averages/OPS at the bottom of order, hitting with men on base, strike outs, etc.)

I assume it's because they have scored less runs than the other team more often. Honestly though, they do not have a great team. They have a strong bullpen, 3 solid guys in the rotation, and 4 or 5 strong to really good position players. It's not surprising to see them play poorly. To me, Villar's boneheaded plays aren't whats keeping us from being a good team. Why are people equating Villar's bad base-running to how good our team is? Are we trying to cover this up and pretend this isn't stupid baseball? If we were in 1st place, this is an issue. If we're in last place, this is an issue. If Joe Schmo in AA Biloxi is doing the same, it is an issue. This thread is long because the problem is still a problem, and the problem (Villar stealing 3rd with two outs for his personal glory/stats/money) is a very fixable one (manager says stop).