adambr2

I think the 24 1st will be conditional. So if they suck, chances are the pick doesn't end up being a 1st. If Gute can get a guaranteed 1st, fantastic but conditional with a reasonable chance of it becoming a 1st seems a lot more likely to me.

Gute has already basically conceded that we aren't insisting on #13. I don't really know why we are even speculating on it anymore. Now, a 24 1st seems reasonably possible if the conditions are as reasonable as the last article suggests (Jets host a divisional playoff game or make the AFCCG), so get ready to cheer for the Jets in 2023.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-packers-jets-discussing-2-high-draft-picks-in-aaron-rodgers-trade-but-stuck-on-2024-protections-034812507.html

I think we'll get conditional piece(s). By heading both directions do you mean the Jets are asking to get something back from us if Rodgers were to retire? I agree that would be a silly request and I doubt it's being asked of us.

I don't think that contingencies are unreasonable in a case like this. The return for Favre was entirely contingency-based. I'd be happy to at least get the guaranteed 2nd in this case, and a chance at another high pick in '24 and/or '25. I think that's reasonable compensation. An additional 2nd would be gravy. Insisting on their 2023 1st is futile. They'll continue to wait and in a month it won't be there for us to insist on and we'll have lost all chances at any 2023 compensation. Gute isn't going to tell them to pound sand when he has absolutely no good alternatives to not getting the deal done. The deal will get done.

If they're insisting on #13 than there's no guns to stick to after the draft, they just don't get it. Their '24 pick could be anywhere and I presume all parties are projecting it to be later than 13, probably in the 20s. Only way I can see it makes sense to wait until after is if Gute has a good feel that the Jets will be pretty amenable to making it a '24 1st with it being so far away and assuming they'll pick late. If that's the idea, I'd be fine with it. Otherwise, they almost certainly lose value waiting.

Douglas not trying to leverage the Lamar trade request against the Packers.

They can ask for whatever they want. They just won't get it. He's 39. He's owed a ton of money, there's no guarantee he's more than a 1 year stopgap, and he took a pretty big step back last season from 2021 and 2020. There also isn't a multi-team bidding war going on for him. There's a plethora of reasons that his trade market isn't a guaranteed 1st, it is about more than just his career body of work. Can you name one 39 year old or older player in NFL history that was traded for a 1st round pick?

My assumptions: Gute is saying we need #13, Jets are saying no way, so we wait. We aren't getting #13. Frankly, the Jets would be dumb to give us #13. All they have to do is wait us out another month and we'll shut up about #13 and they'll still get their guy. We don't have any other trade partners and it's not like we're going to just walk away if this doesn't get done by May. Gute doesn't want it to get to that point, because he'll want '23 draft capital. So this gets done either just prior to the draft, or even during the draft, when Gute runs out of time to wait. Final deal something along the line of '23; 2nd '24: Conditional 3rd, becomes 2nd if the Jets make the playoffs and 1st if they make the Super Bowl. '25: Conditional 4th, becomes 3rd if Rodgers plays in '24, 2nd if he plays and the Jets make the playoffs, 1st if he plays and they make the Super Bowl.

Yeah definitely. Wasn't too surprised at the result. Unfortunately doesn't get much easier this week getting Boston on the back end of an away/home back to back. Strategically, I wonder if they'd be better off resting Giannis and a couple others in Indiana and going full strength Friday against the C's.

I really wanted this one, or at least to be competitive in it. Not because we needed it, but because I thought it was ultimately one of the most impactful games in the MVP race. Looked good in the first half, but things really didn't go our way late.

I personally think it's silly to think either side has any kind of clear advantage or leverage. The Packers want to move on from Rodgers and the Jets want Rodgers. Neither side wants their current situation to be the status quo in August, so it just comes down to who is going to be more stubborn. I'd like it if Murphy, Gute, Woody and Douglas were to meet in person for a few days and go to bargaining until this gets done. It would be a disservice to Love to have this distraction and elephant in the room throughout camps as he prepares for next season.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nfl-betting-odds-say-packers-are-now-worst-team-in-nfc-north-by-a-healthy-margin-160950653.html I think we'll surprise some people. I think 9-8 and a playoff berth is a reasonable possibility. Maybe even compete for the division. My biggest frustration is why we have continued to stand by arguably the worst defensive coordinator in football with a talented defense.

He's definitely got some legitimate takes. My feeling on where the trade compensation ends up is that we get the Jets 2nd this year. I think there will be another pick involved, and there will be conditionally a chance at a '24 1st, but it will be conditional. Only question is what the condition(s) will be. I'd be very disappointed to lose out on any '23 compensation that could help out this year. I'd love to get Elijah Moore back as I'm sure others would but I'm doubting that happens. Maybe Corey Davis.

I literally disclaimed it with "in my opinion" to clarify that it was just my opinion and nothing more than that, "in no way" indicating that I feel strongly about said comment. As with anyone's opinion, I could be wrong about it and hope to be wrong, but I don't think I will be. Please don't try to police me or my behavior when there was no call for your mimicking my question to another poster in the first place just because I disagreed with your opinion, I didn't state that something had been literally reported. My question of whether you didn't know what IMO meant was a literal question and wasn't intended to be rude or snarky. I understand that not everyone knows what all abbreviations or acronyms stand for and so I was trying to clarify if that was the case because I had assumed if you knew that I was merely stating a personal opinion you wouldn't have retorted by asking for sources on a mere opinion. To clarify where I am coming from: I didn't ask you for sources on why us getting the #13 pick is the most likely scenario because I understand that's just your opinion. As it is my opinion that it isn't. When someone says, "It's been widely reported that X won't sign Y because of Z", to me that's different. That's an implication that the information is backed up and reliable and not just a person's opinion. I certainly feel it's ok to ask what the reports are when it's something like that. Otherwise that's how misinformation happens.

I...didn't say I had any information nor did I lay claim that anything was reported. Do you not know what IMO stands for in "IMO, of course."? Or did you completely skim over that part of my post?

Fair counterpoint. As someone who was ready to start the Jordan Love era a year ago and take a much stronger return on Rodgers then, I find the whole situation a bit frustrating, but I can at least understand why they wanted to try kicking the can to win one one last time with Rodgers. But the plan to try to do that with the WR they had was questionable at best. The only thing I can think of is that they fully expected Adams to return when Rodgers announced his return, they were totally blindsided when he still insisted on going to the Raiders, and they had no real contingency plan for that.

In no way is #13 this season getting sent our way the most likely or even a remotely likely scenario. IMO, of course. Again, unless it comes with us swapping #15.

Make no mistake, the really bad extension that Gute signed Rodgers to last offseason is directly affecting both the compensation for Rodgers and the pace of a deal coming together.

Widely reported by whom? Do you have any good sources for that or are you just making an assumption and running with it or basing it off the personal opinion of one talking head? I find it illogical that if the Ravens have up to this point refused to pay Lamar Jackson a contract like Deshaun Watson, that now if somebody does, suddenly that is going to make the Ravens willing to. Yes, I agree Rodgers to Jets will almost certainly get done at some point, though I doubt a 1st will be involved.

His track record of having Drew Brees as his starting QB for 15 seasons? Sean Payton is vastly overrated. The Mike McCarthy comparisons are totally valid. He won't make any noticeable difference with Wilson, and the Broncos will still suck. I said what I said even though many will disagree I'm sure. It's possible Wilson will have some modest improvement from 2022 solely on the basis that he couldn't be much worse. Or he might end up benched. Neither would surprise me.

You think Sean Payton is going to wave a magic wand and make Wilson good again this year? Russ is cooked.

Let's also not insult Nathaniel Hackett by suggesting that he can't run a successful NFL offense with anyone but Aaron Rodgers at QB.

Lamar is definitely the one guy who is out there who could really throw a wrench into our plans quickly if the Jets were to seriously pursue him. There isn't much else out there, but it's not impossible they could get production from a bridge guy. Look what happened with Geno Smith. They could trade up from #13 to draft a guy and sign Bridgewater as a bridge QB.

No one is saying to just trade him for a 3rd to be done with it, but we can only trade Rodgers for whatever the market says he's worth, not whatever we think he's worth. His age, his contract, and most of all, the fact that we don't have anyone except the Jets bidding for his services, are all working against his market.