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owbc

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Everything posted by owbc

  1. owbc
    Thank you for your service Lance.
  2. owbc
    He might not make it another week on the roster if we add 2 pitchers at the deadline
  3. owbc
    McCullers is washed and throwing junk but it’s good enough for his current role
  4. owbc
    PCA might win MVP
  5. owbc
    Pratt is locked in
  6. owbc
    So that's what a 2B with bad range looks like?
  7. owbc
    Good for Luis, he seemed like a nice guy. He needs to earn himself a MLB contract for next year.
  8. owbc
    He has a good eye at the plate but his batted ball profile is not of the level needed to get consistent starts on an MLB roster. Back to AAA.
  9. owbc
    I get it, but I have yet to see concrete examples of where we should make tradeoffs to accomplish this. In my opinion you need your role players to get hot, we've seen that over and over again. I don't think a particular profile of role player is better suited for the postseason.
  10. owbc
    That was an odd decision but I like this Bauers matchup.
  11. owbc
    What does that mean? Who of our players would we expect to have comparable stats to the regular season and which who would we expect to be better or worse?
  12. owbc
    When MLB average is 4.52 runs/game, it's generally considered pretty good to score 5.04 and allow 3.74.
  13. owbc
    Those 90s MB hats are soooo bad. There's a reason they only lasted 3 years 😂
  14. owbc
    Glad I saw the time, wasn’t expecting a 1 pm PT start today.
  15. owbc
    It's worth noting that home advantage in MLB is only about half that of the NBA -- 54% vs. 59%. So if my math is correct I think it's a 36% win probability for the Brewers if they are the away team vs. 43% if they are the home team, assuming the Brewers are a .600 team and the Dodgers are a .700 team. NBA series are also 2-2-1-1-1 vs. 2-3-2 in MLB but that doesn't change the math.
  16. owbc
    This is what political pollsters have done for certain candidates who their models struggle to predict. I find it to be a recipe for disaster. The correct thing to do (in lieu of figuring out why the model can't correctly predict the Brewers) is to present the results as-is. Everybody can look up the bias from past years and do their own correction. There is eventually going to be a year when the Brewers don't live up to expectations. It's inevitable.
  17. owbc
    Getting beat by the lower seed in the 5-game NLDS is the biggest risk and would be really bad optics for this FO, especially if we lose to the Cubs. The best way to give yourself more of an advantage in a short series is to get more pitching. We saw what Skubal did for Detroit last year -- he got them through the Wild Card and then started twice in the ALDS and put Detroit in a position to win both of those games. They didn't win but it turned a series where Detroit was a strong underdog into a coin flip with Seattle's pitching depth being the main difference maker. We've also been on the other side of this. We took the Dodgers to 7 games in 2018 when we were the inferior team.
  18. owbc
    I'm currently trying to pawn off Miz and Harrison onto someone else in my fantasy league but I probably should have shipped them off before their load management became common knowledge.
  19. owbc
    18% to win the NLCS vs. 39% for the Dodgers on Fangraphs. Same date in recent years: 2025: 12% 2024: 9% 2023: 6% 2022: 8% 2021: 18% So I think there is a strong argument to boost ourselves up to ~25% odds with a strong deadline given the statistics suggest we're already much more likely to win the pennant than most recent seasons.
  20. owbc
    Strongly agree, all signs point to them making at least one splashy move. What we don't know is if they will go against recent history and trade for a true rental like Skubal or if it will still have a "Brewers" tilt to it where they go for someone who can help them in at least 2027 as well.
  21. owbc
    That’s why a lefty reliever in particular is of interest. Then we can play matchups and not have defined 7th/8th/9th inning roles.
  22. owbc
    I would buy low on Henderson and/or Holliday in a second. I don't think Baltimore would be dumb enough to move them even if a change of scenery might benefit them. They also would be unlikely to help us in the short term, it would be more of a play for the next few years.
  23. owbc
    It’s priced like it is one of the richest companies in the world right now. Meanwhile, looks like we’re in for a rough earnings cycle based on the market’s reaction to Google. And oil hit 100 again. Fun times!
  24. owbc
    I believe in our ability to keep finding these guys. Sproat, Gasser, Drohan are all free to go in a deal that returns us a top starter or bullpen arm. Way better to lose a known entity in a position of surplus than lose one of our high ceiling prospects. Henderson is the youngest of the bunch at 24 and has shown the most impressive stuff albeit in limited time. I'd only accept him going in a Mason Miller trade. Not for a rental.
  25. owbc
    Some of these GMs in the pack of near-.500 WC contenders are going to be realistic and jump on the high demand from buyers. We saw it happen with Arizona last year and they still nearly made the wild card anyway. Boston is the only one that has played themselves off the seller list, which has at the same time greatly knocked down the odds of other WC contenders in the AL that were sitting below .500. Toronto (7% playoff odds), Minnesota (23% playoff odds), Miami (14% playoff odds), St. Louis (24% playoff odds), and San Diego (9% playoff odds) should all be sellers. Detroit at 48-54 and 32% playoff odds isn't going to miss the opportunity to move Skubal. That still leaves a ton of buyers though.
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