The Cubs are the only team that I consider a threat to actually win the division. I agree on their pitching being weak as well, PCA has also forgotten how to hit.
The Pirates are a nice story but aren't sustainable other than O'Neil Cruz finally having a breakout year. They have enough talent to go .500.
Statistically, the Reds should be in last place, I have no idea how they have won 14 games. Somehow Terry Francona will manage to keep them competitive but I still see them finishing around 78-80 wins..
Cards -- bats are hot right now and they have won some high scoring games despite terrible pitching. As soon as their bats cool off it will be over.
Predicted standings by the all-star break:
1. MIL
2. CHC
3. PIT
4. CIN
5. STL