Roughly $90/barrel is now the floor for the foreseeable future. That will make its way into inflation, which was already 2.4% before any of this started. Rate cuts are not gonna happen.
Iran’s supply? We’re currently blowing up all of their infrastructure.
Boats are still not getting through the Strait of Hormuz and there is no timeline for them to do so. Supply chains are obviously going to work around it and we’ll surely tap the SPR any day now, there’s no way that “fundamentals are a sideshow” other than the crazy spike the other day which quickly corrected itself.