RobertR

Not a DVD review, but I did see a preview screening this weekend, and some might be interested. The Host A fractured Korean family is reunified due to a crisis involving the youngest member of the family. I almost just want to leave it with that summary, but I guess I should mention that the "crisis" of the movie is the youngest girl in the family gets grabbed by a giant, man-eating, amphibious monster. It's a good old fashioned monster movie, but very well done. It's the spiritual descendant of the original Godzilla with pollution (supposedly based on a real scandal) instead of atomic explosions being the catalyst of the monster. And it's often laugh out loud funny with likable characters. If Godzilla is one ancestor, Tremors is another. It has all the ingredients of a classic monster film, metaphor, a look at modern society, thrills, humor, scares, a twist or two, well done set pieces, good acting, and good special effects. If it wasn't subtitled, I would expect it to be a big hit here when it opens wide. It's destined to be at least a cult hit before the English language remake hits. Robert

The Black Dahlia is a great book by James Ellroy. Too bad the movie apparently is anything but. Stuff I've seen: Over the Hedge Don't know exactly why we rented it, except that it was short and looked mildly amusing. There are children's movies and family movies, and I think this is the former. A good voice cast wasn't used to much effect. Except Shatner. My understanding is that the movie is based on a newspaper strip. Judging by the movie, the strip is apparently a warmed over, second rate version of Walt Kelly's Pogo. I'd wait for reprints of that to hit the library. Babel There's a lot to like about the movie on a technical level, it's well acted, and it has an interesting structure. But the actual stories themselves just left me cold. The Moroccan story in particular really didn't cover anything we haven't seen before. And the thread connecting that story to the other two is really slim. Especially the Japanese story. And, unlike what the title implies, communication barriers are hardly a factor in the story. Granted there are some false assumptions and cultural differences shown, but most of the communication barriers are intra-family, not external. With one exception. I thought the Japanese story worked on a number of levels and had a terrific closing shot. The scene in the disco with the subjective visual and audio definitely brought home the isolation of the main character of that story. Perhaps a good rule of thumb is whether any of these stories alone were enough to support a movie. I'd point to the Japanese story as the only exception with the rest needing to draw weight and meaning elsewhere. Robert

United 93 Perhaps something you have to be in the right mood for, but I found it completely gripping and I got emotionally worked up about it. I really don't have a single complaint about how it was made and I found cutting between the air and ground fascinating. Heck, the verbal joke of the Newark control operators being unaware of what's happening outside their window when the first plane hit is a great example of a director thinking about what works best for the narrative rather than going for a cheap money shot. BTW, any "critic" that referred to the movie as being shot "documentary style" should be sent to remedial film studies class. You could argue for "cinema verite" but the movie was anything but a documentary style film. Scorsese on Scorsese On disc 2 of The Departed special edition. Nothing really groundbreaking here, but Scorsese talking about Who's That Knocking on My Door?, Mean Streets, Alice Doesn't Live Here Anymore, Taxi Driver, Raging Bull, The King of Comedy, The Last Temptation of Christ, Cape Fear, The Age of Innocence, Kundun, Gangs of New York, and The Aviator. Nothing really groundbreaking, but informative. That said, I wish the documentary had gone off the beaten path some. New York, New York, Boxcar Bertha, and Bringing Out the Dead aren't regarded as successes, and it would be interesting to hear what Scorsese thought of them now. Does he regret that safari jacket he wore in The Last Waltz? After Hours seems to be his only unabashed comedy, what does he think of that? How about some thoughts on A Personal Journey Through American Film and My Voyage to Italy? What we hear is good, but kind of one sided. Something I saw at a preview screening Amazing Grace It's a bio-pic about British political figure William Wilburforce and his efforts to get the slave trade ended in the late 18th/early 19th centuries. It really seems like a Masterpiece Theater type production, with a little extra expense for the big screen. And it really presents Wilburforce as a saint with not a lot of subtlety. Heck, the first scene of the movie has a sickly Wilburforce get out of his carriage, being drawn by two white horses, to stop some men from whipping a fallen black horse. It's not the last cliche and obvious bit of symbolism that will be used in the movie. But at least they don't end the movie on a piece of dramatic oratory that changes everyone's mind, but the key point is a subtle piece of legislative trickery. The movie at least rises to a Masterpiece Theater level of competence in other areas. Ioan Gruffuld of Fantastic Four turns in a solid performance as Wilburforce and there are solid supporting turns by Michael Gambon, Rufus Sewell, and Albert Finney. There's some nice cinematography as well and any film that ends with Amazing Grace being played by bag pipes has something going for it. And, it's worth noting that Ciarin Hinds, who played Julius Caesar in Rome, has a turn as the main antagonist of the movie although his character is pretty one dimensional. There's also a little moral message about perservering and doing the right thing despite the political climate of the time, that probably can be read a number of ways, not the least opposition to the Iraq War. I'm hesitant to recommend it as I don't think it's any better than competent, but it is well meaning and you probably won't feel guilty about seeing it afterwards. Robert

I'm a fan of Rome as well, although the Superbowl messed up my viewing schedule for the week. I highly recommend I, Claudius as a followup once this season is complete. Robert

A few more: Little Miss Sunshine I liked it well enough. I laughed, the characters worked, it was well acted, and I enjoyed the potshots at the always creepy pre-teen beauty pageants. That said, I've no idea how it got nominated for best picture. It's essentially just another variation of the road bonding movie. It's a good variation, granted, but I think it's just a bit smarter than National Lampoon's Vacation and it bordered on caricature more than a mature road movie like Smoke Signals. It really seems like people simply decided that an "independent" movie must be nominated. Mrs. Henderson Presents The word "middle brow" was made for movies like this. There's a patina of a point to the movie, but in the end it's mostly an exercise in Judi Dench's acting talent and a lot of bare breasts with only the barest threads of a plot holding the thing together. Christopher Guest and Bob Hoskins are also in the film and do good work in thinly sketched roles. It's o.k., but not something I'd go out of my way to recommend. Not a rental, but not something most people are likely to see... The Lives of Others The German nomination for Best Foreign Language Film for this year's Oscars. It is one of the best films of the year, although still a step below Pan's Labyrinth. Set in the 80s in East Germany it follows a Stasi officer doing surveillance on a leading playwright and his actress girlfriend at the behest of party officials looking for dirt, for personal reasons. And, in the course of his surveillance, the officer gets wrapped up in their lives and art and begins to take an active role in events. A role that his higher ups would disapprove of. Equal parts drama, character study, and political thriller. It's filmed in austere style that preserves the atmosphere of life under a communist state where the individual is simply not valued. It will likely get a run in Milwaukee and Madison, but you'll probably have to wait until video if you live elsewhere in the state. Well worth keeping an eye out for. It runs a little long at the end with a drawn out denoument, but most people will find it gripping and entertaining. If they can deal with subtitles, that is. Robert

They have all of one established starter in John Patterson and then a bunch of retreads. Here's a question, would you do Zach Jackson and Derrick Turnbow for Chad Cordero? Does Ben Hendrickson have any trade value? Robert

Re: Idiocracy If you can market something like "Little Man" or "Epic Movie" you can certainly market "a comedy from the director of Office Space". Call it a "modern day Sleeper" or something, but whatever the actual merits of the movie it looks like more a case of office politics than anything else. Did the studio change administrations between greenlighting the movie and release? Certainly, I've seen more than my share of awful movies that got an actual studio push with less going for them. Robert

They have that information available, but I didn't feel like using more than some basic information as fair use. It's available on the website and in the book, but I generally don't consider that fair use. That said, the difference between Jenkins and Mench is pretty much down to Collapse % as theorized above. Jenkins has a fairly substantial collapse % of 39%. Mench only has a collapse % of 16%. PECOTA basically is saying Mench will bounce back due to age and Jenkins will continue to get worse. And, of course, PECOTA isn't necessarily considering using the players in a platoon. Robert

Yeah, Marte is likely better than I've given him credit for. Certainly I wouldn't squawk too much if the Brewers signed him, although I think he benefits a bit from PNC being more favorable to lefty hitters than righties. Still, he would help the team. That said, I'd like to aim higher if given a choice. And I'm certainly willing to dip into the prospect pool a bit in order to sweeten the pot for a return. Sometimes the best use of a prospect is in a trade. Robert

To go along with that reasoning, who's more likely to be competing with the Brewers for a playoff spot. The Pirates or The Padres? Robert

I wouldn't take the win projections too seriously. They depend a lot on IP and PECOTA is very conservative with that. Sheets is projected for about 177 IP, for instance. If he pitches 220+ innings that would be a significant change in his (and the team's) win total. Winning % is probably more important among the starters than total wins. Robert

I've never been against trading Jenkins if it makes the team better, rather than just saves them money. I don't care about the team's profit margin in a year when they can contend. If they're not contenders they probably can unload some contracts at the deadline, (Jenkins, Mench, Clark, Graffanino, Koskie, Cordero, Wise, and Miller) and still come in at or under budget. I'd be willing to throw in someone like Iribarren if the Pirates would give up Mike Gonzalez. Capps would interest me too. I'm interested in getting a guy back for Jenkins that can make a large difference in the bullpen and a second LOOGY doesn't do much for me. Not when you don't know what you'll get out of Turnbow. Robert

Baseball Prospectus have their PECOTA Projections out. I'll post more later, but to give you a taste. Pitchers W/L ERA WHIP Sheets 12-8, 3.36, 1.07 Capuano 11-11, 4.43, 1.33 Bush 11-10, 4.14, 1.28 Suppan 8-10, 4.96, 1.49 Vargas 7-9, 4.86, 1.39 Villanueva 8-10, 4.62, 1.32 Gallardo 8-8, 4.00, 1.36 Hitters BA/OBP/SLG Weeks .275/.358/.457 Koskie .258/.345/.455 Graffanino .276/.345/.409 Hall .278/.346/.522 Fielder .292/.373/.531 Hart .288/.353/.517 Jenkins .268/.345/.452 Mench .279/.343/.486 Hardy .263/.329/.419 Estrada .282/.327/.425 Miller .253/.327/.396 And a couple more for discussion. Braun .283/.341/.504 Gillespie .263/.342/.419 Robert

Too bad nobody seems to remember that Jenkins was very clutch last year. Hitting a respectable .277/.376/.436 with RISP and .297/.462/.654 in close and late situations. I'll say it right now. Jenkins is, at worst, the Brewers third best outfielder. If they just up and give him away, I'll have a problem with Melvin. Especially considering that in this market, he's not overpaid, he has defensive value, and he still has plenty of offensive value against righties. Robert

A few new rentals. Clerks 2 I have mixed feelings. I laughed at regular intervals, but part of me wants to take a crowbar to Kevin Smith's car while shouting "This is what happens when you fail to grow as a filmmaker!" It doesn't help that Rosario Dawson is both the best thing in the movie and also the most unbelievable as she's so far out of the league of Dante. Any dramatic decision in the movie is undercut instantly by the casting of Dawson. Talladega Nights: The Ballad of Ricky Bobby If it wasn't for Sacha Baron Cohen, I'd say you could give this movie a complete pass and not miss anything. And he's not in the movie enough. Honestly, I laughed more during The Queen than I did during this movie. Really, if you're choosing between this and Cars, go rent Cars. Really, there's really no justification for the running time of nearly two hours. It has a plot, but it does nothing with it that isn't formula. A tighter, quicker edit likely would have been better. Shallow Grave I believe this is Danny Boyle's debut film. And you can see many of the ways that he's developed since then in the film including use of color and working with multiple film stocks and video. It's a nice, succinct little thriller about a tight knit set of roommates who cover up a death over a suitcase full of money and how that decision and the resulting paranoia drives them all apart. Ewan McGregor makes the most impact and it's obvious why he was the star of Boyle's next movie, the much improved Trainspotting. There are a few too many plot holes and little to no rooting interest among the characters for this to be a classic thriller, but it moves fast enough to cover up its missteps and keeps you guessing until the end. While I'm at it, a bonus theatrical review. The Queen Helen Mirren getting an Oscar nomination and being the frontrunner is completely justified based on her performance as Elizabeth II. She has the icy stoic exterior down, but she lets you see that there's a person underneath that exterior and she really is a woman of her generation. That being the WWII stiff upper lip generation. I don't think the movie as a whole is Best Picture material, although it may be nominated for that, as it is quite small in scope. But it is illuminating to someone that doesn't understand the British monarchy at all. And, as I alluded to earlier, it is funnier than you'd suspect with plenty of acid tongued asides thrown in. Robert

For hitters I like the following stats, usually in this order. VORP/EQA (Because for some players, SBs, GIDPs, and/or Ks do matter.) OPS/OXS (Still the best quick and dirty method for most players.) BA/OBP/SLG (How you derive OPS/OXS. And because it tells you the type of player you're looking at. A .300/.360/.500 hitter is different than a .250/.360/.500 hitter and should be deployed differently in different situations.) HRs (Still the most efficient way to score runs.) SB:CS (Yeah, it's a gross oversimplification and ignores situational context. It's still somewhat useful.) WPA (I need to be convinced that it has predictive value. But, it's a very useful tool to see what a player actually did in the past and takes into account situations.) For Pitchers I like the following: FIP (DIPs is o.k. too.) Park-adjusted ERA+ (Because a 4.5 ERA in Colorado isn't the same as a 4.5 ERA in San Diego.) K/9, BB/9, K:BB Ratio (I think they're more predictive than ERA itself) ERA WHIP Defense: ZR/RF/FP% (And a lot of squinting and hand waving. Some of the more modern metrics looks good, particularly UZR, Dewann's +/- system among others, but I don't understand them well enough yet.) Robert

I'm not against the idea of trading Clark. That said, Clark can play CF and complements Gross as a backup outfielder nicely. Defensive flexibility is a plus. I do agree an extra outfielder for a reliable reliever makes a lot of sense. Ideally, I'd like to deal Mench. He's only really valuable with the bat against lefties and he's the worst defender of the bunch. Then again, other teams may think that too which would limit his value as trade bait. Jenkins, even with the big contract, is the veteran outfielder with the most value. Of course, the Brewers are planning to contend, so does it make sense to deal one of your better outfielders on a team that might struggle some for offense? Robert

That's an interesting thought. I think that if that happened, the team would decide to let Ryan continue his development at 3B and move Koskie to 1B. That wouldn't be a good move for the team's defense, but it'd probably be a good move for Ryan. Well I was speaking mainly in regards to replacing Fielder's bat. I'd expect the Brewers would lose something in defense if they moved Koskie to first, but I'd also suspect that the upgrade from Fielder to Koskie would mitigate a great deal of the loss. I probably should rethink the scenario though. If Fielder would go down early in the year, I suspect the substitution would be Hart to 1B and Gross/Clark to a corner outfield position. Later in the year Braun is going to come into the mix. While neither scenario is ideal, I think the Brewers could muddle through a Fielder injury. I'm still thinking that a Sheets or Cordero injury could be much more devastating to the Brewers. Those are their All Star caliber players. Robert

I might put Sheets or Cordero on the more indispensable list than Fielder, but I agree that Fielder would be the toughest of the position players to replace, maybe with Hall in CF being the other spot where the Brewers would take the biggest hit. That said, in my mind, Fielder's backup is Braun. And I feel a lot better about the Brewers with that option at AAA to backup 3B, 1B, or corner outfield, if necessary. Robert

New rentals... Art School Confidential Starts out promising, but ends up not saying a lot and having a sudden and not very entertaining shift in tone about 2/3rds through. After some initial, fun observations about art school, the humor pretty much devolves into art school is full of poseurs. Add in a main character that gets more unlikable as the film goes along and mostly wasted star cameos and it's a missed opportunity. Inside Man Not a great film, but an entertaining thriller with very solid performances by Denzel Washington, Clive Owen, and Jodie Foster, and a style and little touches that make it recognizably a Spike Lee film. It won't win any prizes, nor should it, but I was fully entertained over the 2 hour running time and felt that I got my money's worth. The Devil Wears Prada I was expecting to like this and I didn't. Meryl Streep is excellent, most of the rest of the cast is very good, and it's well photographed, but I found the story obvious and superficial. And I was especially bothered that the film wants to say that the "world of fashion is shallow" yet can't resist a single opportunity to make it look as fun and glamorous as possible with really only shallow "crises" to move the plot along. "Fashion Porn" is a phrase that crossed my mind several times while watching the movie. Robert

You can find positional averages here. Robert

Those projections can inspire some optimism. I'm convinced that the most important thing for the Brewers is good health. Give me relatively good health and those projections, and I'll say the Brewers are likely contenders if not favorites. Robert

Even if I though Hughes will be as good as Sheets in a few years, it makes no sense. The Brewers window of opportunity for competing for the post season is open now and Ben Sheets is the key player on the Brewers in making a run. The Brewers have to keep their eye on maximizing their chances now, not 3 years from now. Even if it was advantage Brewers in talent, which I don't believe it is, the timing for the deal is all wrong. Robert

We're a long way from those LaRoche for Gonzalez rumors. I don't think this trade does much of anything for the Pirates this year. Cabrera doesn't look like much of an impact player, and the Pirates need impact players on offense. Still, he's young and servicable and should improve. Maybe in 2 or 3 years the Pirates he'll be a solid player amid the young prospects of the Pirates who have matured. Robert

I tend to think there's a lot of hubris among pitching coaches that they can fix everybody. It's not alone to the Brewers, Rick Peterson apparently thought he could fix Victor Zambrano in 10 minutes. How'd that trade work out for the Mets? Granted, there are success stories. They just don't seem to involve the Brewers. And, perhaps, placing a higher priority on pitchers' mechanics and their ability to throw strikes is a correction that needs to be made to their evaluation process. I don't expect the Brewers never to draft a High School pitcher high in the first round again, but I do expect them to learn from their mistakes and make better choices. Robert