MNBrew

Winning the Max Scherzer sweepstakes would defy seriously long odds and make the heads of countless BF.net regulars explode -- both reactions for the reasons already sufficiently noted . . . . and I'd be positively giddy if it were to actually happen!!! Could you imagine if we had a certified ace on our roster long-term? From up here in the State of Hockey, where the Zach Parise/Ryan Suter double FA signing coup has totally changed the perception of the franchise into an up-and-com-er which is also able to make deals from positions of strength & depth, the Brewers have a very convenient example of how adding a top-tier cog at a crucial roster position can have a positive domino effect down the entire roster. (It's a simplified yet rather valid comparison at least on a basic level, but it still works legitimately.) Again, while the odds of this happening seem very long, the potential benefits are just as significant and real as the pitfalls & possibly crippling aspects of it are. (edited for a typo)

It'd be nice if it worked out that way, Soup, but keep in mind this guy's at best only proven to be a fringe 40-man guy with only a little MLB time. Starting 3B in a year-plus? Possible but it seems like a long shot even with an optimistic outlook as evidenced by the Angels -- currently with little depth there -- thinking little enough of him that they waived him, letting him go for nothing. The Casey McGehee scenario (which would be repeating itself in your scenario) is the exception most of the time, not the rule.

In all seriousness, that's probably a normal Brewers off-season in a nutshell right there (in the bold font). SS could be a huge improvement. Ditto for 1B -- not because Lind's great, but because he's not putrid, so even an "average" year for him or league-avg. output could be the source of a decent bump upward. If Braun's wrist responds well and he regains his normal form, that could be the biggest upgrade of the 3 noted so far. On the pitching side, excluding the bullpen because of the certainty of at least a few "moving parts" due to its being an annual GM construction project (like on many, many teams), potentially Fiers represents a solid upgrade over Estrada's 1st half, and Jimmy Nelson's horrible 2nd half leaves some room for upgrading, too. Granted, all those things occurring and without any significant backward steps anywhere obviously makes for a "perfect world" ("perfect storm???") scenario which, however improbable, still could happen.

For goodness' sake, it's hardly an idiotic situation or an indefensible remark. The Brewers went on a doozy of a run of getting burned by lots of good pitchers with flawed deliveries who pretty much all NEVER panned out. Mark Rogers & Kyle Peterson are two whose names come to mind right away, and there was a whole run of others. Some of these remarks are patently absurd. Pick, pick, pick, pick, pick!!!!!..... Cripes, some folks are so convinced that Melvin & Mark A have a cumulative IQ of 7 and are the root of all evil, it's downright unbelievable. They could lead the Brewers on a run of 5 straight World Series wins starting next year, cure cancer & defeat homelessness, plus solve world hunger & find the permanent solution to world peace while they're at it, and so many on this Board would do nothing but complain about them because they only went 16-2 against St. Louis each year & Melvin only tipped BF.net posters on 5 of the 6 winning Powerball numbers each time a drawing was held.

I have no idea what Melvin may still have up his sleeve, but I'm 98% sure he's NOT done. I also think he may have a particularly helpful significant move up his sleeve that no one sees coming, though that's pure hunch on my part without the foggiest idea of what that kind of move might actually prove to be. 2 days later, I still think this is a pretty darn good move. For those inclined to carp on Lind's sub-par work vs. LHPs, also keep in mind the large percentage of RH SPs in the NL Central, which in turn MAY NOT (note I'm not suggesting "does not") necessitate the platoon at 1B so many seem to feel is essential. PLUS... I read a comment in one of the Lind trade articles (JSOnline or MLB.com) that the Brewers' main attention toward a RH-hitting 1B is focused on internal options. I don't remember where, but I'm not making that up.

Well, besides the fact that there weren't other obvious great (or potentially even worthwhile) options for 3B, I like this move a lot. To the contention that it's a bad move, I think you have to give it time and at the same time consider what/who the replacement options realistically may have been. Ramirez slumped badly in the 2nd half like everyone else did, including our newly annointed "face of the franchise" Lucroy. It's too soon to state as fact that Ramirez is now over the hill and in irreversible decline. The truth is that he may be in decline -- just as he may not be. No one knows for sure. I get quite bothered by how quickly so many folks here seem to be going "all in" with the "sky is falling" mentality, and in the process are dismissing Ramirez completely because of his age and realistically allowing no chance that he's not done yet. I still think Johnny Narron was no help -- who really showed any significant improvement under him these past 3 years, or who during last year's total slump & nosedive showed they could make meaningful adjustments??? -- and I'm at least encouraged by the Coles hiring.

With all due respect to Robin Yount, Paul Molitor was a better all-around better baseball player, and as such I've always liked him more between the two. Yount gets more love b/c he stayed with the team 'til his career ended, but that's hardly on Molitor as we all know: Molly was better in 1992 than Yount, who was starting to show more overt signs of decline. Yet when both were FAs after that year, Yount was offered a raise from their similar $3-point-something-million salaries and Molitor was offered only $1M or so (accompanied by the Sal Bando line that will live in Brewer infamy: "only a DH"). Molitor went on to have at least 4 more VERY productive years, whereas Robin's numbers would decline for his remaining two seasons. In '92... Yount: .264 BA, 8 HR, 77 RBI, .714 OPS -- much like the other 3 seasons which followed his 1989 MVP year Molitor: .320 BA, 12 HR, 89 RBI, .851 OPS -- and he had 3 BETTER seasons after that, plus another .300+ year, and no year after that out of 6 as bad as Yount's 1992 Paul Molitor was as fundamentally sound a ballplayer as there was in his day, and he's keenly baseball-smart in ways similar to how Robin Yount is. I don't think there's a way to pigeon-hole him into the stereotype of an extension of TK & Gardy since he's never been in charge of a team to be able to exert the kind of influence that dictates team style, and any conjecture about it is just that, and therefore is easily and justly dismissable.

At least Kotsay was previously a CF, whereas Ishikawa was more or less a never-before LF until the injury deal. That Kotsay was exposed was just as much a luck of the draw thing as was Ishikawa's not being exposed.... which I think was your point.

2 things: 1. The fact that the hot streak was early put them in command of the division for most of the year. That presented the obvious opportunity that they squandered so painfully. There's an advantage to that situation that's not there if you stink early, then improve enough to make a playoff spot within reach. While the net result is a similar-ish record, the opportunities presented by the different scenarios aren't the same. 2. To go along with your assertion, part of the getting less talented each year after 2011 is rooted in the fact that Fielder & Greinke, like Sabathia, passed on the huge money the Brewers offered them for huge-er money from other teams with much deeper pockets. Those were key losses and few teams have the depth to replace those guys with comparable talent... However, this year's was the best rotation we've had in the past 3 years, and by quite a lot, and the BP also was improved, AND the offense was pretty darn solid (witness the core of the same players over the past 3 seasons) except for the horrid team-wide slump in the 2nd half which spurred the collapse which eventually turned into most every bad thing they did or bad habit they had coming back to bite 'em. So I actually disagree with the notion that this year's team wasn't any more talented than the 2012 & 2013 editions.

For all the crap Roenicke catches for having played Kotsay in CF in the 2011 NLCS -- a position he'd played many times over the years -- I feel strongly that by the same token, it's truly equally dumb for Bruce Bochy to play a so-so, not-so-agile 1B in LF in the playoffs -- none other than Travis Ishikawa -- when a far better fielder sat on the bench (Perez). The only difference is that although Bochy could've been equally burned by that move, in this case he wasn't, whereas the Brewers did pay the price for the Kotsay move. For as much as many BF.net posters and Brewers fans resent Kotsay playing in CF, it's less illogical than Ishikawa in LF, a position he's hardly ever played. Of course, there's probably a Giants equivalent of this board where that decision was similarly overly analyzed and just as blatantly torn apart. And I'd guess some of their posters are equally convinced that the Giants would be far, far better off with another manager instead of Bochy. .... Besides my point at its face value, I'm also still just as firm in my belief that this franchise isn't as pathetic/sad as many here suggest. Most every team has plenty of flaws. Ultimately, no matter what the approach of the FO or the capabilities of the manager, there are no guarantees. Several teams should've had a better shot at getting to & winning the World Series than KC & SF. But "should've" doesn't always prove to matter: The Giants are now World Series Champs, not the Cardinals, Dodgers, or Nationals.... nor any of the AL teams whose odds were far better entering the playoffs.

This may be right, but it also means nothing 'til games start getting played.

Sign they don't plan to bring Ramirez back? Hope so. You don't use up 40 man spots for guys you don't think can make your team. Jimenez has solid minor league credentials albeit it in Salt Lake City in AAA. Not far fetched at all that he could post numbers as good as Ramirez can at this stage. Don't get me wrong -- because I'd hope this move pans out well -- but . . . . Jimenez may have decent upside, but he's also just the type of player they could waive next week if a more solid option comes along. We're so used to Melvin's knack for turning what some consider chicken (you know what) into chicken soup that the tendency to believe this guy's a potential budding starter or ace bench guy is quite evident. However, it's just as possible that he amounts to AAA depth at best by the start of the season if not well before.

Try "Taylor" Green. I like that move an awful lot even though his star may well have passed. At least he's only 27 and not 30+. Accumulating young options for 3B, and seemingly with better chances for impact collectively than what they had going at 1B in 2013.

It's hard to know if Seattle would do that, but, whether proven MLB young talent or top-tier prospects, that's the caliber of return I think the Brewers should be looking for if they entertain offers for Gomez. . . . Harper's an interesting potential target, but I think that while he's good, the notion of just how good he actually is is quite hype-enhanced on a nation-wide basis.

Oh my goodness! He's greedy? He was injured for the better part of 2013 (pre-suspension) and all of 2014! His whole plate approach was affected, and yet he's still blatantly admitted at the end of the 2014 season that he needs to play a whole lot better. Greedy? Unless you know exactly what's inside his head, that's a completely absurd claim! It's funny that you two are holding up Gennett. He did manage a decent number of clutch hits, but that's hardly an indication of a better approach at the plate. He sure didn't walk a lot and he also swung at everything under the sun -- the main difference being that his contact rate was more humane. Heck, Braun had an insignificantly better OBP than Gennett in spite of a lower BA -- why? because he walked at a rate over 50% greater than Scooter's. Not that Braun walked a lot.... And while you're ragging on Ramirez, his BA was barely lower than Scooter's -- though both were in the .280s -- but his OBP was 10 points higher at .330. . . . Sorry, but it seems like some perspective's getting lost here. It seems the crux of the your frustration, like all of ours, is that most of what had been a pretty dang good & productive offense for a few years running went down the toilet atrociously in the 2nd half, which has left all of us with a bad taste in our mouths and a glass-half-empty outlook. The only reason it's somewhat easier to exclude Lucroy & Gennett is because they were the only two who more or less maintained solid BAs (never mind that Ramirez hit .285, too, only .004 lower than Scooter). Let's not forget Lucroy was hardly clutch in the 2nd half -- a 30-point BA/OBP drop after the ASB & a 100-point OPS dropoff w/ only 4 HRs & 25 RBIs. SCOOTER hit .253 w/ a .273 OBP with a 200-point OPS dropoff after the ASB w/ only 2 HRs & 21 RBIs.. . . . The point is, the 2nd half was ugly for everyone and pretty much no one came out of it looking any better at all -- except, oddly enough, Rickie Weeks, who hit .302 after the ASB, although with guys on base he was usually pathetic and hardly ever came through to drive in badly needed runs (including a total 0-fer with the bases loaded this year -- horrid!). Back on topic.... I'm not in love with Coles as a hire, but short of a Paul Molitor, I figured I'd feel underwhelmed by the name we'd hire. But ultimately it's not the name that matters. Coles knows most of our young hitters and is quite a different voice than Johnny Narron's. We had decent-hitting minor league guys under his tutelage and Detroit wasn't a bunch of slack hitters this year, either. So who knows? Coles at least gives some justified reason for hope given his history with guys in our organization..... You can't change a tiger's stripes, so to speak, but it's possible for our hitters to better understand both what they can do at the plate and what they tend to do -- good and bad -- to help improve their awareness of what they need to do, both in general and in specific situations. If Coles proves to be an effective voice, and especially if the Brewers' hitters become better at making adjustments as individual games progress and as the season evolves, then Coles' influence has the potential to greatly improve on the results the team got in 2014 under Narron.

I can see the Brewers possibly trading one of them, too, and I'd prefer it be Gallardo, both for the greater return and also because of his increasing inconsistency. I see leadership and more intangibles from Lohse, yet not much on either count from Gallardo, who's often at least as capable of pitching a total stinker as a 7-inning 1-hitter before turning it over to the bullpen, and the stinkers often seem to come at the least opportune times.

I agree with this. Lohse has value. Probably equivalent to what Marcum had at time of his trade. Lohse is relatively cheap and has a 3+ ERA. That is a definite plus arm someone would be adding into the rotation. If someone wanted him, they would be giving up one of their top 2 guys to get him. (A la us and Lawrie) Not a contradictory argument at all. Lohse is 36. Gallardo is 28. All other things being close to equal, teams would likely give up less to get Lohse than Gallardo due to the age difference -- the same point many posters have made in several related threads.

The fact is that Nelson totally stunk the longer he was in the rotation, and then was really no better out of the pen. For all the reasons touted above and his legit showing in AAA this year, the net is that he's a mixed bag. Does he have a Peralta-like ceiling/trajectory still ahead of him? Or is the August/September version of him in the bigs all he'll be? It's simply conjecture either way, and the numbers can be (and have been) slanted toward either perspective. Lohse is showing no signs of slowing down yet. He'd also net us less of a trade return. And while folks on here aren't keen on this in general, he's got plenty of positive leadership attributes that many others including Yo significantly lack. Gallardo, on the other hand, has shown consistent weaknesses over the long haul that make him a better trade candidate, and he's young enough & has clearly enough upside at times that he might net a far better return. Sorry, the topic's twisting away.... back on track, I want nothing to do with A-Rod. The Yankees are at fault for that absurd extension and need to reap what they've sown with him.

The $4M is sunk cost regardless. If it's folded into an additional amount for A-Ram or piled on top of to sign an outside FA or land a (hopefully) worthwhile trade acquisition, it's spent either way.

I'd put Lucroy (quite significantly, a la Gomez) and Segura (esp. if he can regain some of his overall average 2013 form) in the same category, as well as Maldonado if you include bench/depth. That's a very nice collective element on the roster. On the whole, they're probably not where the variables (problems?) lie. The greater key is who else is there beyond them -- that is, the combination of quality players/production & the dollars associated with those others once you get beyond the "good, young, talented, affordable" players.

Headley may be the better 3B over the next 3 years vs. Aramis. It wouldn't be surprising given Ramirez's age. But those who continue to tout him as a good OBP guy, at least as contrasted with Ramirez, are missing the point that Ramirez is just as good. Headley scores fewer runs per PA and drives in fewer, too. So neither of the ultimate game-difference-making virtues of getting on base -- either scoring runs oneself or driving in teammates -- favor Headley at all -- so he ultimately represents less production at 3B beyond the quality of his hitting (which isn't overly appealing). If the rest of the Brewers' hitters' approaches don't change and the roster makeup doesn't change, the fact that Headley sees, on average, 2-3 more pitches per game from the SP likely has precious little impact on the starter's effectiveness. . . . I agree with TheCrew07, that if greater selectivity yields greater dividends than just seeing more pitches, if the hitters therefore ultimately inflict greater damage on the scoreboard and wear a pitcher out more quickly, focusing on the pitch count itself is as useless as a futile stream of "yeah butt"s..... (sorry, wasn't sure how to pluralize that properly). The defensive side? Aramis won't be mistaken for Brooks Robinson, but all in all he's quite a far cry from Braun or Sveum at 3B. There are at least 3 positions (SS, 2B, LF) where the Brewers' defensive inadequacies are more glaring and therefore more concerning than 3B. So the impact of Headley's glove vs. Aramis' simply is not a big difference maker in substantially improving the team... Pile of top of that a VERY pedestrian offensive output at a usually-important offensive position and I just don't see him being a worthy FA target. Aramis wouldn't be a legit long-term solution. But I'd take him on a one-year deal (or a 2-yr deal w/ a team-friendly PT-based vesting option) over Headley on a 3-year deal -- and all the more so if the dollars are anywhere close to equal.

I'm not convinced Headley's going to be much if any cheaper than Ramirez. If the difference is indeed negligible, then Headley's contract puts us in no better position to acquire another good player (like a 1B) than Ramirez's contract. And if Headley gets a 3-4 yr. deal and his AAV nearly matches Ramirez's AAV, then Headley's contract could well become a Suppan-like albatross by its end if his annual production doesn't improve to something far closer to his 2012 outlier than his career norms otherwise.

Prospect wise? Nothing that would be worth trading Gomez to the Tigers for. The best bet would be to see if the Tigers would do a Price for Gomez swap so they can resign Scherzer and possibly a closer in FA. Other than the Gomez for someone that is already on the Tigers roster now there isn't much left in the Tigers farm system to target. The Tigers farm system is actually more barren than the Brewers and the Angels system. The only thing that kept the Tigers above the Brewers and the Angels at the beginning of this season was Castellanos and now that he is in the majors for good the Tigers now have the worst farm system in all of baseball and it is by a wide margin. No one comes close to the Tigers in terms of a bad farm system. Much like the previous Price trade, could sending Gomez and Gallardo to DET AND involving a 3rd team allow the Brewers to net the type of return those two would justify? I think I'd still rather trade Gallardo than Gomez in spite of the rare chance to sell high on Gomez, and I'd prefer to see if the package of Gallardo & Davis would net us David Price. That said, Gomez may be just what it takes to land us enough solid in return to positively alter the makeup of the everyday lineup in a significant & favorable direction, whether by that trade alone or in tandem with other moves. If Gomez were traded, I'd hope the end result isn't Gerardo Parra as the everyday CF simply b/c his bat's not terribly promising.

Still flawed. Maybe the Brewers could use a Headley type of player, but not at the expense of Ramirez if they have a say in the matter. Yes, Headley's obviously younger and he's better defensively. But he's not better offensively and it's really not very close. The switch hitting is a moot point in light of his production. Re: OBP.... Ramirez gets on base just like Headley, only with more hits and fewer walks -- but your point was that Headley gets on base, which Ramirez does equally well and with more productive results -- thus, no advantage to Headley. To wit: Their career OBPs are .003 different. >>> tie Ramirez's career .840 OBP soundly trumps Headley's .765. >>> adv. Ramirez In a down year for both in 2014, Headley's OBP was .328 & Ramirez's was .330. >>> tie Headley's had four OBP years >.340 including two >.370. Ramirez has had NINE OBP years >.340 including four >.370. >>> adv. Ramirez Headley's had ONE OPS year >.800 (his outlier 2012, noted above). Ramirez has has NINE OPS years >.800 -- the last in 2013 -- including six >.900. >>> adv. Ramirez Even if you boil it down to just the last 3 years (2012-14) -- which includes Headley's only stellar year and Ramirez's most recent stellar year, plus the down year for both of 2014.... Headley: .262 BA, .353 OBP, .429 SLG, .782 OPS Ramirez: .291 BA, .352 OBP, .482 SLG, .834 OPS ... which means Ramirez is a better hitter and the only thing offensively Headley has over him is that he walks more. However, again, the fact that their OBPs are about identical again negates the assertion that Headley gets on base whereas Ramirez doesn't. If it's hits vs. walks that prop up the same number, you're saying walks are good because they work the pitch count, which is true; but in the end, all other things being equal, I'll take the hits because they're far more likely to drive in runs, which is the ultimate measuring stick on offense. To that point, over the past 3 years... Headley: .114 runs scored per PA, .117 RBI per PA Ramirez: .120 runs scored per PA, .145 RBI per PA ... which means Ramirez is both more likely to score a run and drive in a run than Headley, which would seem to be the two most significant outcomes you'd want from a guy's turn at the plate -- either drive in a teammate or get on base and score a run yourself. Headley may have gotten on base ever-so-slighty more, but Ramirez was still more likely to score, which carries more weight in my thinking. And Ramirez was notably more likely to drive in a run. As more of a side note, even Ramirez's down year of 2014, power-wise, saw him hit 15 HRs. He's had 11 seasons in which he's exceeded that (usually by a lot -- in 10 of those 11 seasons, he hit at least 10 more). Headley's only hit as many as 15 HRs once in his whole career. So... the bottom line is the results, and offensively they generally favor Ramirez significantly, even over the past 3 seasons. What side of the plate Headley hits from is, to a certain extent, moot because Ramirez still outperformed him even though he only had the righty-vs.-lefty advantage part of the time (far less than Headley, of course, because the majority of pitchers are RH). If Ramirez even only maintains his average production over the past 3 years, Ramirez's defense isn't terrible at all and Headley's defense isn't enough to outweigh his inferior offensive output. I'm guessing that Headley's rather likely to get overpaid this winter by someone -- I sure hope it's not MIL b/c we sure can't afford that kind of mistake -- and his vastly inferior hitting won't improve enough to make his salary look good at the end of the deal (hello, Rickie Weeks!). So even with the risk of injuries/etc. due to his advancing age, I'd still far prefer to see Ramirez at 3B next year for a figure at/near the value of his $14M team option (rather than Headley at $12M as projected) and explore the Clark/whomever options at 1B unless moving a different significant salary allows us budgetary room to obtain a Morneau, Cuddyer, even Morse, etc. type at 1B. (Now, if Ramirez is elsewhere and Headley is the Brewers' 3B in 2015, if Headley outperforms Ramirez handily offensively and the Brewers win more games as a result -- and if his production is worth what he's getting paid (a la Kyle Lohse) -- I'll likely be happy for those results and I won't mind being wrong about my present opinions.)

Not a bad set of ideas, but you lose me w/ trading our next-best-to-Nelson arm in the upper minors for a backup corner IF who hasn't proved successful at hitting MLB pitching yet -- basically a newer version of Mat Gamel. A number of folks mention Hector Gomez as a backup IF. My roster would have Elian Herrera over him every day of the week. I was no Elian Herrera fan coming into the season, but the guy proved he can handle part-time duty, he can play all over the IF and OF, and though nothing special defensively he's surely not lousy -- and he actually can get hits with some regularity off the bench, which was a scarce attribute past Lyle Overbay in 2014. I'd also prefer seeing Ramirez back but manning 1B over Braun. As I said in the Ramirez thread (transactions forum), he's a solid corner IF, which Braun never was, and Braun's solid in the OF, where the issue is Davis (arm and offensive consistency), which makes moving Braun seem quite illogical.... Also, the type of hitter Davis is (low walks & questionable eye or plate judgement) is what we seem to need less of overall, not more.... With Reynolds (now gone), Segura, & Gennett (who at least gets lots of hits), the dynamic of the offense that needs improvement is quite glaring! Re: some of the first posts in the thread, Aoki is the type of bat we could use to improve on last year. The notion of Hart returning seems highly unlikely at best unless it's a make-good/NRI deal, and the $8M proposed would be fine if this were 2011 (in which case he'd be starting), but the guy was DFA'd by Seattle, downright stunk last year when he wasn't hurt, and wasn't offered as much as $6M last year by MIL, so $8M....???... He'd be lucky to see $1.5M next year if that.