colbyjack

igor, I would argue that the scouting staff deserves more credit. While there are more blatant swings and misses from Eric Arnett to Dylan Covey, Seid has drafted some pretty good arms, even if there isn't that one, can't miss ace. And they seem to be doing a better job keeping them healthy too.

Tyler Wagner and Taylor Williams were two of my favorite picks in the last two drafts, and I love seeing them continue to perform at a high level while matching their performance with lofty radar gun readings. Very favorable reports on both this evening.

Wow, love seeing Medeiros in front of Miller Park, I just wish he or his dad would have let me know they were in town ! Great kid from a great family and truly outstanding stuff. No chance he makes it to their pick at No. 41, so he would have to be the pick at No. 12.

Yeah, they usually have about that many players TheCrew07. Paul, I would be a little surprised if Davidson last until #41 overall. At the beginning of the season I thought he would be in the mix for #12, but I don't think that's the case anymore.

NC prep 1B/OF Braxton Davidson just tweeted a picture from Miller Park: Braxton Davidson ‏@B_Davidson06 18m Just a little glimpse of what I got to play in today #blessed #livingthedream #millerpark pic.twitter.com/pB3pToOWKa

brewerprospectwatch, I'm curious, where did you read that Grant Holmes has really bad control? That's actually one of his strengths. The biggest knock on him is that's he's a 6-2, 200+ pound prep RHP (and 6-2 is probably a generous height listing) with limited projection, but he's already pretty dang good. Plus, you listed both Tyler Beede and Touki Toussaint among the pitchers you would draft, both of whom really struggle with their command even if their upsides are considerably higher. And I agree with splitter, the organization's pitching is actually one area of "depth," if you can call it that. Impact bats are few and far between, and one could argue that none truly exist, unless you're really high on guys like Tyrone Taylor and Clint Coulter in the lower levels. Monte Harrison is an extremely exciting athlete, and I'm glad you brought him up Todd. I doubt he goes as high as No. 12, but you never know. Keith Law had his new mock draft out today and tossed out names such as Holmes, Pentecost, Reid-Foley, Beede and Derek Hill. All of those would be good fits for the pick, outside of Hill, who for me just doesn't do enough with the bat at this point in his career to warrant such a high pick. Reid-Foley is a name that has been tossed around before, but never really gone into a whole lot of depth. He doesn't have the hugest upside, but he's been pitching extremely well every time he's taken the mound this year, and has been up to 98 even though he usually sits 90-94 with one of the better sliders in this year's draft class. He has a similar profile to guys like Holmes and even Luis Ortiz.

I'll be on the WSSP On Deck pre-game show today talking about the draft at 2:20 pm central for those interested.

ewitkows brings up an excellent point about Hoffman. If he doesn't accept the fact that he's hurt and has to accept a lower signing bonus as a result, he'll have to wait 2 years to prove himself again given the timing of his injury. I feel bad for him, as he's a good kid that we at PG have followed very closely, but his leverage disappeared today, and not only for this year's draft. He needs to sign, get in a pro organization and rehab, otherwise he could potentially damage whatever draft value he had. As for Toussaint, that's not surprising. Every team drafting from 5-15 should be on him. While he still has to improve his command he has a plus fastball, curveball and changeup, and it's all thrown so easily. For as good as the top HS pitchers are, including Kolek and Aiken, Toussaint's collective 3-pitch arsenal is probably better than both of them. He's still relatively new to pitching, and I wouldn't put too much stock into his asking price, that's simply called leverage. Yes, he has committed to play for Vanderbilt, but I've never got the sense that will play too big of a role in him turning down $2 million. I know of 3 people on my staff that would take him without thinking twice if they had a pick in the top 10. If the Brewers do take Toussaint, the team, and we the fans, will have to be patient, but he could be really special. I too think of Jeremy Jeffress, but I've always contended that scouts, like NFL cornerbacks, need to have short memories and can't make their decisions because a similar player failed to live up to similar potential. If you do so, you're going to make yourself short-sighted and potentially miss out on special players. What if the Brewers drafted Toussaint, Bukauskas (who as noted told teams he intended to go to college, but players have used that ploy before) and Hoffman with their first 3 picks and creatively found a way to sign all 3? That would be crazy, even if I don't think there's any chance the Brewers would be the team to make that happen. And what's wrong with Jimmy Nelson? Boring shouldn't be confused with unproductive, as I personally value the depth he provides to the current big league Brewers.

PG's college expert, Kendall Rogers, was at the FSU/Virginia series last weekend and reported that Weaver was 88-91 touching 92 a few times. I don't think Weaver becomes a reliever, but there's a good chance that Finnegan does. I agree in your assessment in that I would prefer other players to these two with the team's first rounder, although I'm not sure anyone considers Weaver a candidate to go that high anymore. Finnegan's velo has been down recently as well, 90-91 last weekend, as there may be some fatigue going on at this point in the season.

Todd, for the record I only brought up mock drafts since I've noticed people over the years say things along the lines of "these mocks drafts have player A falling to the Brewers spot, so there's a good chance he's there." I wasn't trying to suggest you were one of those people. Mock drafts are fun like you noted, but they are not to be taken seriously for anything more than 100% entertainment value. To answer your question about Chavis, yes, I really like him, and yes I would take him as high as No. 12 overall. I think I have been the loudest among those (I may be the only one) that think the Brewers should strongly consider taking a bat with their first pick, because it may be their only good chance to get a decent one in this year's draft. They'll still have a great opportunity to land quality arms with their next two picks, and possibly even further, given the depth of pitching this year. Chavis actually is the one player I think could be drafted a lot higher than expected. I could really see one of the teams with multiple, early picks taking Chavis, signing him quickly to a friendly deal, and then picking up someone with their next picks that may have fallen. Somewhat similar to what the Royals did with Hunter Dozier and Sean Manaea last year. Garrett Fulenchek is another good pick that will be considered for one of the team's early picks. Very good frame, improving FB velo and one of the best sliders in this year's draft. I watched his outing first hand at our big Jupiter tournament last October when he made a significant jump up our rankings. He peaked at 94 and sat right around 90 the rest of the game showing good command of a 3-pitch repertoire, and I've heard he's been even better, more consistently this spring.

"I'm sure you're right on Alex Jackson, he's projected as a top 5 pick anywhere you look, I have him at 5." While I agree with you, I always warn people not to take too much stock into mock drafts, and that applies to all sports. I'm sure if you looked at mock drafts last year Sean Manaea didn't fall into the 30s, much less past the top 10-15 picks. "I've moved Chavis from the fringe of the first round, to solidly in the first round - do you think the Brewers would actually take him at 12?" I'm not saying they should or shouldn't take Chavis, because I do really like his chances and think he could move quickly for a high school bat, but I do think the Brewers have their focus on an arm. That said, if they're going to take a bat I would be all for Chavis, Zimmer if he somehow fell or Kyle Schwarber. Chavis also receives high marks for his character, his tools pass the eye test and he has a knack for stepping up in big game situations. Todd Gold actually had the Mets taking Chavis two picks before the Brewers' first-round pick in our mock draft earlier this week. I agree that Pentecost is a very good hitter, and is proving this spring that his success on the Cape last summer was no fluke. We debated that topic several pages ago in this same thread. I think Lucroy is a pretty sound overall comparison for Pentecost too. He's athletic enough to handle a move to 3B if it came to that. TheCrew07, I agree with you on Turner, there just seems to be something missing with him. However, he also has all of the tools to make a lot of teams look bad for passing on him too. Prior to last summer I thought he was a slap-and-dash type hitter that would probably have to move to the OF. He proved me wrong when I had the chance to see him in person, showing advanced defensive tools and a strong arm from SS and the ability to turn on 90+ mph fastballs from the Team Cuban hurlers he was facing.

Yes, I really like Howard and think Virginia is hurting his draft value by having serve the closer's role. He could be a top 10-20 overall pick if he was starting. He was 93-98 last weekend, and most believe he could sit in the 92-93 range with his nasty slider and solid to plus change in a starting role. Plus, as I noted in my notes, he has a low mileage arm and could rack up about as many innings as the team wanted to between the time he signed and the end of the summer, or even fall instrux/Arizona Fall League. splitter, one are I disagree with you is saying there's no way the Brewers take a high school bat. One hitter that has continued to rise up the charts, and could be drafted even higher than expect due to the lack of bats is Michael Chavis. I agree that Nick Gordon won't be there, and considering Alex Jackson is one of 7 players the Astros are still considering at No. 1, I would say he won't be either.

For those interested, the PG draft team conducted a mock draft through the first 41 picks. I had the Brewers, among a few other teams, and selected Evansville LHP Kyle Freeland and Virginia RHP Nick Howard with the team's first 2 picks (Insider level): http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9785 The exercise was another reminder of how deep this draft is in pitching, as there are a bunch of good arms, some surprisingly, still on the board (including everyone's favorite Luis Ortiz, whose injury situation still hasn't been clearly defined).

Nate, I haven't heard much on Braxton Davidson this spring. He's still considered a candidate to go in the latter third of the first round to early second, so yes, the Brewers could have a shot at him with that comp pick. He offers a big-time bat, so I too would be happy if he were added.

LouisEly, I touched on Weaver just two posts above. His velocity hasn't been the same, or as consistent, this spring. And as you noted, you would think he has room to grow into his frame, but he hasn't yet. He's been roughly the same size since high school. Here's a quote from his recent PG Draft Focus report: "While the results have been Weaver-esque this spring nonetheless, the reports from scouts has been that his velocity has been somewhat down this spring. Instead of the 93-96 mph we saw in his stint with Team USA, he’s been closer to 90-92 mph for most of 2014. He has a 2.83 ERA through his first eight starts, but it’s also worth noting that his strikeout rate is down. He has still struck out 46 in 54 innings of work, but compared to what he showed last spring, it is obviously a little diminished." I would be a little surprised to see him go as high as No. 12 given that report, but he could very well finish strong and change that. splitter, I think Chavis and Gillaspie are going to go in the teens. Monte Harrison is another guy who could rise into the 20-30 range partially due to his talents and mostly due to the lack of impact bats.

I think Weaver is a solid fit, I personally am a little worried by his pretty significant drop in Ks this year combined with the reports I've heard that his velocity has not been consistent and typically falls off noticeably after the first 3-4 innings. He's not the biggest guy in the world, not that it's the reason that's happening, but the Brewers have stated, and proven, to show they like the bigger, more projectable bodies in the pitchers they take in the top 1-2 rounds in recent years. Newcomb is built like an ox and Freeland has about as perfect of a build as you look for in a young arm. Narwal, I think someone is going to pick up Bukauskas before the end of round 1. He went from a guy throwing 88-90 last summer, with clear upside for much more, to mid- to upper-90s this spring with some reports of him touching triple digits. That's crazy. He re-classified from the 2015 class to this year's so he could go to UNC a year early, and then all of the sudden he just happened to find 10 mph on his fastball. Simply unheard of, but scouts are still a little caught off guard by his development. It's good to be both lucky and good I guess. The Dodgers seem to love players like this, and their first pick is in the early 20s. And that is really what makes this year's pitching class so special. Everyone is doing so well, including guys like Freeland, who Todd perfectly phrased about his draft situation 3 months ago vs. today, and Newcomb. No one really has plateaued or even taken a step back. It's pretty incredible, which also leads me to believe the Brewers take an arm in round 1, and possibly with all of their early picks. Should they land that Dominican kid for $3+ million it may lessen the need to add an impact bat in the draft. TLB, yes, Casey Gillaspie is Conor's younger brother.

I'm going to go with Sean Newcomb or Kyle Freeland as the team's pick at this point in time. Both have been throwing the ball extremely well all spring. I don't think the team would draft either of them just because they're lefthanded, but it's obviously an added bonus. splitter, I do think you correctly identified the 10 players that will be off the board by the time the Brewers pick. With such a pitcher heavy draft, and the possibility of landing a pretty darn good pitcher with the team's lottery and 2nd round picks, it once again begs the question about drafting a bat early. There aren't too many good ones this year, and we could see a handful of them taken earlier than expected because of this. Monte Harrison in particular is one name we're hearing as a potential first round pick that entered the year as a 2nd-4th rounder and hasn't really done too much to improve his stock other than show up on the field and show his usual athletic talent. Kyle Schwarber continues to do his thing and Casey Gillaspie (Wichita State) is now a candidate for the top 12-25 picks. Michael Chavis is another candidate to be taken higher than initially expected. Just look at the pitching depth when you have prep arms like Mac Marshall, Foster Griffin, Scott Blewett, Luis Ortiz, Joe Gatto, Jack Flaherty, Spencer Adams, Jacob Nix, Justus Sheffield and college arms like Nick Howard, Spencer Turnbull, Chris Ellis, Jace Fry and Jeff Brigham all of whom could be available for the team's 2nd and 3rd picks, with a few of them likely being available for their 3rd round selection. If pitching remains the target, the bats I would target with my lottery and 2nd round picks would include Marcus Wilson, Ti'Quan Forbes and Mike Papi, a much shorter list.

Another name to throw into the mix, hasn't pitched in a year, behemoth KS prep RHP Bryce Montes de Oca: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9723

Not sure if people have noticed, but Carlos Rodon hasn't been quite as dominant so far this spring, and a pair, and possibly a trio, of prep arms could all be in consideration for the No. 1 overall pick. Brady Aiken, Tyler Kolek and Grant Holmes have all pitched exceptionally well this spring, as either Kolek or Holmes could become the first prep righty taken in the 50th year of the MLB Draft. Jeff Hoffman has been very good, as last night he sat at 93-97 in his CG performance over Rice. However, he's not exactly a slam dunk for 1/1 either. San Francisco's Brad Zimmer is now considered a slam dunk pick for the top 10 overall picks and is being tabbed as the best overall hitter available this year. With all that said, with Rodon, who has had expectations of being the No. 1 overall pick (and to be paid in kind) who has been aligned with Scott Boras for quite some time, there is the possibility that he falls in the draft similar to Mark Appel two years ago. It has been reported that Rodon is completely comfortable following in Appel's footsteps and returning for his senior year if he needs to. While there's still plenty of time for things to shake out further, or for Rodon to re-establish himself, things could get very interesting toward the top of the draft over the next two months.

narwal, I'd rank them 2005, 2011 and 2014. 2005 is going to go down as one of the best draft years ever, possibly right behind the incredible talent that came out in 1985 (thank you BJ Surhoff!). 2014 could compete with 2011 in 3-5 years, but right now since so many of those players, especially pitchers, performing at a high level already it's hard to put a class of high school senior and college juniors above them. TheCrew07, once again I agree with your thoughts, as I don't get too wrapped up in trying to project where a pitcher fits into a starting rotation. I'll take a handful of pitchers that most would label No. 2 starters any day, and I also like the idea of loading up on college relievers later. Assembling an effective bullpen internally is such an underrated quality of a farm system.

The last thing I would call Holmes' fastball is flat. Even good high school hitters don't get fooled by flat high school fastballs, no matter how hard they're thrown. We've heard reports of him reaching triple digits this spring, consistently pitching in the mid-90s, so he's another guy that may not find himself at No. 12. But some really good pitchers will. There's just so many good ones right now, and like I said before, it's like each and every one of them is surpassing expectations. I just got an email earlier today saying Kolek was back up to 102 mph the other day, sitting 95-97 in his most recent outing. If you hear someone call the 2014 draft class weak, ignore them and move on. The bats may not be the greatest, but the number of power arms is ridiculous. I know I campaigned the Brewers to take a position prospect the last few months, but it's hard to imagine them not dipping into the wealth of arms this year.

Thanks TheCrew07, always appreciate the linkage and support. I'm going to try not to be too big of a homer, and I'll keep my posts in this thread limited, but if you don't follow PG, we posted our 43rd Draft Focus profile so far this year today on Brady Aiken. For as good as Aiken is, we've received recent reports that he's been up as high as 96 mph this spring, as his fastball has taken another uptick to go along with his already strong curveball and overall command. The Draft Focus profiles are Insider based, but I strongly suggest you give it a try, even if you wait to do so closer to the draft: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9582 Almost all of these profiles have video included. Most of these videos you can find on the individual PG player profiles and/or on PG's YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/PerfectGameBaseball That said, if you don't want to subscribe you can't beat our high school preview content, all of which is free. Each of the 10 region previews provides a Dream Team and identifies the top tools. Here's a link to feature that includes all of the HS preview content, tons of great draft related info to soak up: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9338

The number of premium pitchers stepping up this spring and dealing is ridiculous. I just heard about the note on Aiken just prior to McDaniel's tweet, as the report is legit. Aiken was more well known as a command guy leading into the spring with good, not great stuff, but as you noted narwal, mid-90s with an already great curveball is starting to pile on to an embarrassment of riches for this year's pitching class. And someone asked earlier if any players were starting to push their names up draft boards. Another prep LHP, Foster Griffin, also has been very impressive so far this year with an overall profile not so different than Aiken. Griffin has been steadily in the 90-94 range, peaking a tick or two higher, with a much improved breaking ball (slider) and changeup. Sean Newcomb, who has been discussed before, has also looked good. A college LHP, the report on him had him 89-92 in the early innings and actually gaining velo in the middle frames, pitching at 93-94 and touching 95 a handful of times in the 3rd-5th innings in his last outing. The 2014 draft class looks more and more loaded every time one of the top arms takes the mound. From what I've heard, the top 2 arms entering the spring, Carlos Rodon and Jeff Hoffman, may have been the least impressive so far. Not that they've been bad, but expectations are already so high for both.

TheCrew07, nice assessment on Jungmann, and I know you've held that stance since the Brewers drafted him. I still was hopeful (and remain hopeful) that he could still evolve into an innings eater type of starter. He's never going to miss a ton of bats for the reasons you stated, but I do know that he has been working hard on developing his changeup, and with three at least average pitches he could be effective. Eye Black At Night, I really like Aaron Nola. The kid just knows how to pitch, and his changeup could be one of the best in the game. I'm not sure if a changeup is a true out-pitch, but I like his chances to succeed even if his ceiling isn't the greatest. Same goes for Schwarber. The kid's a beast and he has shown time and time again that he can not only hit, but hit for power with a very disciplined approach. He could be a fast-track candidate especially if you're looking at the black hole at first base. brewcrewdue80, it's still a little early for any popup players, at least any that has drastically changed their draft projections since the college season just started and the high school season has only started in a few places around the country. While he's not going to be around when the Brewers pick, I have heard that Tyler Kolek has looked absolutely filthy so far this spring in preseason action. His fastball has been 93-99 and he's tightened up his slider. He also throws a changeup, and throws strikes, and could be a realistic candidate for the Astros to consider with the first overall pick, even though Rodon is still considered the favorite.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=5763