colbyjack

Javier Baez walks twice a month and strikes out well more than once a game. Javier Baez's "pure hit tool" was always in question. His raw power was not. I'm surprised I missed this before, but Baez was considered the most polished hitter available for the 2011 draft. He and Gatewood are not similar prospects.

Nice scoop BuckyBrewer61. I read this just before going to bed last night, and it reminded me of several years ago when Jeremy Burnitz had been traded to the Padres for Phil Nevin, prior to Nevin using his no-trade clause to decline it (and/or the Brewers didn't agree to a contract extension with him IIRC). Anyway, I woke up this morning with Garza fresh on my mind, and smiled when I heard it actually became true.

I like Weaver, very fast arm, produces low-90s heat that touches higher at times with promising secondary pitches. However, his stature (even though he looks closer to 190 than his listed 170) is smaller than what the Brewers ideally say they like, unlike Newcomb. That won't mean they won't stray from that expressed preference, as they obviously took Thornburg in the 3rd round a few years ago. Above I was simply profiling some players that I liked combined with what the Brewers have shown to be interested in recent years. Of course they haven't taken a prep arm in the first round. Long story short, Weaver could very well be among those in consideration come June. BTW, if you haven't seen this check out this great piece by Connor Glassey, formerly of BA: http://conorglassey.com/big-leaguers-drafted-1996-2013/ He breaks down how many big-leaguers each organization has produced from 1996-2013. Here's the Brewers' writeup, check out the 'interesting tidbit': 20. MILWAUKEE BREWERS (67) Scouting Directors: Ken Califano (1996-1999), Jack Zduriencik (2000-2008) & Bruce Seid (2009-2013) Total AB: 33,633 Total IP: 5,839 Notable Players: Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Bill Hall, Michael Brantley, Jonathan Lucroy, Brett Lawrie, Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, Manny Parra, Tom Wilhelmsen, Jake Odorizzi & Jimmy Nelson Interesting Tidbit: At 5,839, the Brewers have drafted and signed the fewest innings of any team since 1996. Nearly half (46 percent) of those innings come from Ben Sheets and Yovanni Gallardo, who are followed by Manny Parra, Craig Breslow, Dana Eveland and Tom Wilhelmsen.

Thanks molitor fan, let us know if you see Destino again this season. Clint Longenecker of Baseball America has a really fun piece up breaking down the stats of BA's top 100 college prospects, and it's free: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-top-100-draft-prospects-by-the-numbers/ Given the players I detailed just above, in addition to Kyle Schwarber's strength, the numbers really support future success for him. And Nola's control numbers are ridiculous.

LouisEly, that was my point.

This has been a fun thread to read. I would love to put "Win the World Series" at No. 1, or possibly all five, but I don't think that's the overall premise of this thread. 1. Pitching staff picks up where it left off. 2. Ryan Braun return to form (or at least close). 3. Aramis Ramirez stays (relatively) healthy. 4. Jean Segura doesn't regress. 5. One (or ideally more) young player in farm system really takes an upward turn. I debated between No. 5, which I believe is really important, and finding a 1B or having an internal option really step up at that position. No more Sean Berry or Yuni B. experiments at the position. I think if the first four happen, the team will be in a good position to contend. That's a lot of ifs, which is why not many people will be picking the Brewers to contend in the preseason. But at least it's not just a pipe dream.

I meant to share this earlier in the week as a top 10 for 2014, but here are 10 players I really like for the Brewers pick at No. 12. I'm ruling out the following players who I'm pretty sure, as long as they're healthy, will be picked before the Brewers have a chance to take them: Carlos Rodon, Jeff Hoffman, Trea Turner, Tyler Beede and Tyler Kolek. This is an undefined combination of players I like with profiles that match up well based on organizational need and recent drafting preferences. 1. Aaron Nola, RHP, LSU - Not overly physical or dominating with his stuff, but he had the best changeup in his class coming out of HS, he competes, commands and still throws in the low-90s. He should fly through the minor leagues. 2. Kyle Schwarber, 1B, Indiana - Catches at Indiana, should be moved immediately to 1B as a pro to let his bat fast track him. Incredibly strong player with big-time power potential. 3. Alex Jackson, C/RF/3B, CA prep - Tremendous raw talent with unfair Bryce Harper comparisons. Not nearly as sure of a thing as Harper, but too good to pass up if he's available. 4. Kodi Medeiros, LHP, HI prep - Absolutely ridiculous stuff, smaller frame and delivery causes some concern about long-term health, role. 5. Sean Newcomb, LHP, Hartford - LouisEly mentioned him before, and he definitely fits the profile of the type of big-bodied (6-5, 235) pitcher the Brewers have shown interest in recent years. Mostly 90-94 with good, not great secondaries. 6. Luis Ortiz, RHP, CA prep - Very similar overall profile to Yovani Gallardo, except slider, not curve, is his out-pitch. Sits low-90s, reaches higher. 7. Ti'Quan Forbes, SS, MS prep - Love his feel for game, tall, angular & athletic, more strength in frame should lead to more power. 8. Chris Ellis, RHP, Ole Miss - Not currently ranked on most draft lists to be an option at No. 12, but most that saw him pitch late last spring and summer think he will be come June, if not higher. 9. Grant Holmes, RHP, SC prep - Polished and competitive, up to 97, more of a finished product that knows how to pitch. 10. Michael Chavis, 3B, GA prep - Has drawn a few Dan Uggla comparisons, but has improved a lot defensively over last year, can run, strong arm, consistently has big performances at big national events with a knack for the big hit. Just missed: 11. Max Pentecost, C, Kennesaw State - mentioned him earlier in thread, really took off last summer after injuries riddled him first few years in college, should have huge spring. Similar overall profile to Lucroy. Not a superstar profile, but a good all-around catcher. Three more to keep an eye on (all prep pitchers): Scott Blewett - big-bodied RHP that really made big jump from June to October last year, could be in mix for No. 12 come June Cobi Johnson - tall, projectable RHP with big-time hook, son of big-league pitching coach Alex Destino - sturdy and athletic LHP that really knows how to pitch, change speeds, command, can also swing the bat Sandwich/Second round targets: Greg Decimann, prep 3B - big power from LH side Taylor Sparks, UC Irvine 3B - has power, but future at 3B in question Brian Anderson, Arkansas 3B - athletic, versatile player could fit in at 3B, OF Mike Papi, Virginia 1B/OF - incredibly disciplined eye, sweet LH swing, power potential in question but he can rake Alex Blandino, Stanford SS/3B - really smooth defensively, has shown power with wood bat in 2 summers on Cape Jace Fry, Oregon State LHP - great feel for game, command, but has questions coming off TJ surgery Justus Sheffield, prep LHP - also has very good feel for pitching, sits 90-93, touches higher Zack Shannon, prep RHP/OF - big power bat, but power arm, hook could lead to him being drafted/developed as RHP Kyle Freeland, Evansville LHP - another LHP with feel for game, secondaries, low-90s fastball

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I would have taken Arnett where the Brewers did without blinking an eye. He may not have had the longest track record, but he was lights out his junior year at Indiana. Hard to say why he's struggled so much since (aside from injuries), but sometimes they just don't pan out. Thanks for the updates though Mass.

heresrobin, and others that are interested, here is a piece I wrote on Kendall a few months ago: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9052 narwhal, I do think Gettys could be available. We at PG currently have him atop our current 2014 prep player rankings, but realize he needs to continue to make adjustments at the plate to hold onto that lofty placement. All of the other tools are there, that's for sure, and he's a very intense athlete and overall competitor. There are only a handful of players who I'm 99.9% sure won't be at No. 12, Carlos Rodon being the most obvious followed by Jeff Hoffman and Tyler Kolek.

Sorry, I should have explained that when I do the annual draft order feature I start with a "worst-case" scenario, accounting for all of the free agents that could effect draft pick compensation. I understand your point about these picks being awarded as the players are signed, but when you start with all of the picks that could change the order, and start crossing them off based on where they sign and with what teams (or re-sign with their 2013 clubs), the Brewers projected picks did rise after last week's flurry of activity. As for the #12 overall pick, not too much has changed, although Alex Jackson and Jacob Gatewood didn't show as well as hoped at the plate at our tournament in late October in Jupiter. That said, if either is available when the Brewers pick, it would be hard to pass on them. Prep RHP Grant Holmes, who did show well in Jupiter (although not as dominant as we was earlier in the summer), is a player I think we'll hear more and more about between now and next June.

Similar to past years, I'm keeping a running tab of all of the free agent signings as they pertain to next year's draft order (free story): http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9039 Every player that is signed by a team that holds a compensatory pick for lost free agents, or a free agent that is re-signed by their 2013 club, is good for the Brewers. For instance, because the Yankees signed Beltran, Ellsbury and McCann, in addition to re-signing Kuroda, they forfeit their first-round pick and their two compensatory selections for losing Cano and Granderson. The Brewers currently have the 12th, 44th and 56th overall selections.

Agreed Briggs. John Jaha's oppo field power was very similar to Mike Piazza's. Just incredible strength in his swing. If he would have had a more healthy career he would have put up some impressive career numbers. Not Piazza-esque, but still pretty dang good.

I think the one most obvious similarity is that the current Brewers team, at least some of the key components, have been playing together for a decent string of years, or at least they were 1-2 years ago. The 90s players mentioned spent a pretty good chunk of time together. Lots of injuries and missed expectations. Without dwelling on that, what I find interesting is trying to figure out what players may have been cultivated as a result of trades/departures of some of the team's most notable players. In my opinion, that is really where previous general managers have failed, getting little to nothing in return for the team's top players. And for the most part, most of these trades were for the most part ripped apart when they happened, so it's not like I say this only in hindsight. Jose Valentin was actually a decent MLB SS, and was part of arguably the worst trade in team history. At least the players that came in return for Cirillo contributed, even if those contributions were average at best (and I was surprised to see Jamey Wright still pitching this past year). Vina, Juan Acevedo. Jaha and Nilsson, free agents. Newfield, was supposed to replace Vaughn, possibly an upgrade, but steroids and other "performance" enhancing drugs got in the way. The trade of Vaughn led to a very roundabout series of relievers/closers, as Bryce Florie led to Mike Myers which led to Curtis Leskanic, Wes Obermueller, Danny Kolb and Jose Capellan. Ron Villone, another part of the Vaughn deal, lead to Marquis Grissom and Jeff Juden. Grissom led to Devon White, who had one of his best years with the Brewers, his last as a big-leaguer. However there is one lasting ripple effect of one players on that list: Mark Loretta, one of my most favorite string of trades/player acquisitions in team history. Loretta was traded for Wayne Franklin and Keith Ginter. Ginter was part of a deal for Nelson Cruz who was part of a deal for Francisco Cordero. Cordero left as a free agent, netting the Brewers a comp pick used to get Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi was traded as part of a deal for Zack Greinke, who of course was traded to net a package that included Jean Segura. Thank you Mark Loretta.

Here's a Tweet from TrackMan with Taylor Jungmann's name popping up among the league's top pitchers, at least for fastball and slider spin rate: https://twitter.com/JoshOrensteinTM/status/398534675330641921/photo/1 If you're not familiar with the data TrackMan compiles it's pretty cool stuff. We (Perfect Game) are starting to use it more with some of our higher profile events at the high school level, and the more data that is compiled over time the more people are going to be able to determine if this data is something that can be used to prognosticate future success. Also, I spoke with Brewers scouting director Bruce Seid down in Jupiter, FL at our big end of the year tournament event. It was the first time I had met Seid in person after speaking to him a handful of times the past few years via phone or email. We talked about a few Brewers prospects (and current players), and he mentioned to me in particular that Taylor Jungmann's stats shouldn't be looked at too closely since he spent a lot of time this year brushing up his changeup. The organization is still pretty excited about both he and Jed Bradley, who has pitched well when healthy, but unfortunately keeps sustaining set-backs that has slowed his development. And, Seid is a big fan of this site and does read the comments here from time to time.

Since his name was brought up in this thread, I'd thought I'd let you know that my PG cohort Frankie Piliere saw Michael Cederoth's spring appearance last Friday and reported on it, with video, here: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9172 In a nutshell, it sounds as though he's working on his secondary stuff, and command, even at the expense of his usual fastball velo readings.

I agree that being at #12 as opposed to where we thought the Brewers would be picking 2 months ago really opens up their options. BPA, as sheetskout pointed out, really is a loose term that is different for each and every organization. The Brewers have already shown in past years, both good and bad, to go against the grain with some of their picks. No one would have taken Prince Fielder as high as they did (good), and the same is true for Mark Rogers and Matt LaPorta (bad). If Bradley Zimmer is the #12 prospect this year it's a bad draft year. He's intriguing, but will need a lot for him to come together to go that high. Jacob Gatewood could fall, well past #12 in fact. He really had a disappointing summer and needs to end on a high note next week in Jupiter. The pure hit tool is really in question, which is the opposite as Javier Baez. That said, his upside still is impressive though, which would make it hard not to be excited if he were there if the draft were held today. Aiken's probably not a candidate for #12 unless the velocity takes a nice spike upward next year. He's a 88-91 velo guy peaking at 92/93 type of guy with a big, slow bender, and his arm speed doesn't suggest that he's going to be that much higher. I love the way he pitches though.

Those are all fair points, but I guess I wouldn't consider Pentecost, or anyone for that matter, unless he replicates/build on that success this coming spring. Without a doubt if the draft were held today I would have a hard time taking him there based on his past history as you noted. But then again, like I said before, that's what scouts are for, and the reports on someone like Pentecost in particular is that he made the necessary adjustments to be in the conversation for picks in the early teens. He's a potential top 10 guy if he continues to progress next spring, especially considering he plays a premium position. The same is true for Newcomb. Pitchers, unlike hitters, at least have velocity readings to point to beyond their stats. As for Conforto, he's very Geoff Jenkins-esque. Good hitter, good power and a very good arm, but his upside is more limited than Jenkins' at the same stage of their respective careers. Also, my PG cohort Kendall Rogers tweeted this the other day on Michael Cederoth. The velo has been there since his freshman year, so if his command, breaking stuff does come together he's an easy top 3-5 pick next June. Kendall Rogers ‏@KendallRogersPG 8 Oct Elite 2014 prospect, @SDSUBaseball RHP Michael Cederoth sitting 97-100 this fall, showing much improved CH, better SL. Nasty. #mlbdraft

I find it interesting that you're skeptical of players that had success on the Cape when you mentioned earlier you liked Sean Newcomb for the Brewers pick. Newcomb, like Pentecost, really made a name for himself for the 2014 draft for the success he enjoyed on the Cape. Sure, some players excel there and don't make it, and others do. There's a ready-made example for just about any related scenario. As for a small sample, it's really not that small. Of Pentecost's college career, his time spent on the Cape is roughly 20% of that. The tools have always been there (he participated in the PG National Showcase in HS getting high marks across the board: http://www.perfectgame.org/Players/Playerprofile.aspx?ID=274732), so it's not as though he came out of nowhere, and the production has been solid (although not eye-popping prior to the summer, again, similar to Newcomb). And the same can be said for every single draft-eligible player. That's where the scouts really come in to play. I don't mean to go out of my way to defend Pentecost, but again, it's curious when you have two similar players and you choose to advocate one but not both of them.

splitter, that's exactly it with Gatewood. A world of talent and someone you can easily fall in love with if you catch him on the right day, but a player that also isn't as polished as some would prefer with such an early pick. Epitome of high risk, high reward, and he could easily be a top 3-5 pick next June if he puts things together between now and next June. Still very hard to pass on should he be available at No. 12. I really like the way Brady Aiken pitch, but he's never going to be a flamethrower. He'll throw pretty much what he does now, maybe a tick or two higher, with his usual big-breaking curve and plus command. I think he's likely to go somewhere between the Brewers' first rounder and the supplemental pick. It's interesting you bring up the team's Area Code teams. They've had that relationship for a long, long time now, and yet they've never drafted too many prep SoCal kids. The Brewers ACG teams are always loaded, without a doubt, going far past the likes of Aiken and Taylor -- Alex Jackson, Marcus Wilson and Jack Flaherty are 3 more players that could go in the first round next June.

That's a tough one, but a very good question since those are the names I would guess would be a factor at No. 12 as it stands right now. Gatewood's upside is ridiculous, but I'm skeptical he can reach it, and he may have to move to the OF. Very Chad Hermansen-esque. I already shared my interest for Forbes, and Newcomb is a very good pitcher. My pick would be Pentecost. A very good hitter and all-around athlete that exploded this summer on the Cape. If you're worried about the presence of Lucroy, move Pentecost to 3B where his athleticism and arm would work just fine, especially given the void at the position in the system. But that's a problem for 2-3 years from now.

Without a doubt you have a greater chance to hit a home run with your first round pick the higher you select. That's how the Brewers were able to make the most of their early picks and basically turn that into a pair of playoff teams with the likes of Fielder and Braun batting in the middle of the lineup. However, as splitter noted, it's all about who you take. That's why I don't get too bent out of shape about the actual slot and the history at No. 12. Instead, I'd rather look at some of the players taken in the first round at 12 and below: 2012: Corey Seager, Michael Wacha 2011: Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Matt Barnes, Taylor Guerrieri, Robert Stephenson, Joe Ross 2010: Chris Sale, Christian Yelich 2009: Shelby Miller, Mike Trout I intentionally went back to 2009 for obvious reasons. I don't think it's necessary to cram more names down people's throats. The Brewers system needs an injection of talent, and they need to hit on whoever they take, something they haven't had as good of fortune with in recent years (just look at the top prospect lists in the Pioneer and Midwest Leagues). I really like that Ti'Quan Forbes was mentioned, because we at Perfect Game think he's a guy that could be flying way under the radar. However, he's nothing like Troy Tulowitzki. Also, if Tyler Kolek is available at No. 12 something is wrong with him and/or he signed with Boras (but then again, I suppose Jose Fernandez fell farther than 12). Just for fun, who would you have taken at No. 12 in 2013? The first players taken at and after the pick were: D.J. Peterson, Hunter Renfroe, Reese McGuire, Braden Shipley and JP Crawford. I personally would love to have any of those 5 players in our system right now, especially Shipley who reportedly is really making the D-Backs look like geniuses for being lucky enough to have him fall in their laps.

splitter, regarding the draft order, I kind of view it similar to a team making a late playoff push. We've all seen the stats of how difficult it is to make up X amount of games in Y amount of time. I think the reverse is true for the draft order, as I would be surprised if the Brewers significantly slipped out of their current position (6th). Louis, the Brewers really haven't shown any tendencies of being creative with their draft picks. They usually draft and sign guys at each and every spot for slot value, but I like the idea. Aaron Nola is a fantastic pitcher, one of my favorites to watch. He's a true pitcher, and you can probably already guess that this means he doesn't have the stuff to profile as a true staff ace. But he could pitch his way to being one. He usually throws 89-91, but can peak at 93/94 in the early frames. He commands his fastball incredibly well, it has some late life to it, and he also throws a very polished curveball and changeup. There's still some projection to his frame, so it's possible he boosts his stuff up another tick or two, but for those that say they don't want a mid-rotation starter with the team's first-round pick, you probably won't like his profile very much. Although I very much doubt he slips out of the first round. Baseball America had him ranked No. 10 on their recent top prospect list for 2014, and I agree with that lofty ranking.

You know, I'm not even going to say that the Brewers shouldn't draft an outfielder. Yes, Braun is signed for a very long time, and the team has Gomez for 3 more years, but is there really any one guy that you are comfortable with for the future? Any player the team drafts is at least 3 years away from being a solid, everyday contributor, so it's not like Gomez' contract should effect what the team is thinking anyway. And while there are so many names at 1B in the minors, do any of them project long-term? I don't think so, and I don't even think it's close. I do think Schwarber is an interesting name for the Brewers though. He's not a top-10 candidate as you noted, but given his profile it's not too crazy to imagine him being available in the comp round. There are a lot of players that project as either average regulars or solid backups right now in the Brewers system, but very few, if any, that project as legitimate perennial impact players. That's scary IMO, and as I noted before, they need to figure out a way to change that quickly. Anyway, Kiley McDaniel, whose one of the best scouts/writers out there, offered his top 50 prospects for next year's draft, for free, last week. For the most part this is a solid ranking of who you can expect to see taken among the top 50 picks next year: http://sbb.scout.com/2/1318151.html

Touki Toussaint is essentially Jeremy Jeffress at this stage in his career. Electric arm, but zero command. No way do I take that big of a risk in the top 10 picks. Tyler Kolek, Grant Holmes, Luis Ortiz and Kodi Medeiros are the top, most well rounded prep pitchers at this point in time. I know I'll be ignored and disagreed with, but if there's an impact bat wherever they pick, they better not reach for an arm just because it's perceived to be the greater need. There is a severe lack of impact bats in the system right now (there's just a severe lack of impact overall talent that needs to be addressed).

I know TheCrew07 has been very kind to share all kinds of PG links in the past, but if you're a fan of the draft and haven't been following the PG site, be sure to do so. In addition to a ton of coverage on the PG All-American Classic (which was on MLB Network 2 weeks ago) we kicked off our summer collegiate top prospect coverage today. Kendall Rogers will have his reports on the top 20 Team USA players tomorrow, although I had the chance to see most of those guys a month ago: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=8844 If you watched the PG AA Classic you will see just how ridiculous Kodi Medeiros' stuff was, who I mentioned above. He made 3 straight hitters, and one very good defensive catcher, look pretty bad in his 1-inning outing. And I'm with you brewcrewdue80. I hate to root against the Brewers, the higher the draft position the better, and since this team has nothing to play for except for pride, why not put themselves in a better position for next year's draft. 3 picks among the top 40-45 picks would make for a rather large draft pool, although I've given up on them employing an aggressive approach.