colbyjack

We've updated our mock draft with this second version a few weeks out: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=7028 Brewers picks: Ty Hensley, Pierce Johnson and Tanner Rahier (the Hensley pick remains the same since the first one, and we have confirmed interest from the Brewers in Hensley, who fits their recent profile of strong, big-bodied pitchers). Also, the PG staff is going to be conducting a 10-round mock draft early next week. I gave my fellow Brewer fan co-workers first dibs at the being the Crew's SD, and we'll be releasing the picks pretty much as they happen. http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=7030

I'm not sure where you got that report on Weickel, but it's not right. If anything has hurt him this spring it's that he has been consistent, just consistent to what he has shown in the past, at least last summer, as opposed to gaining velocity as his tall, projectable and athletic frame would suggest. He's been up to 94-95 and sits 90-93. Both his curveball and changeup are good secondary pitches, and he is learning to add velo to his curveball to get it up to a more acceptable velocity. When I saw him in mid-June last summer I heard one scout say after he threw a pretty impressive changeup, "that's what I came here to see," meaning, everyone knew about his FB/CB combo, and it was simply a matter of time before he refined his changeup. Many think it is also a matter of time before he's throwing 93-95 more regularly peaking at 96/97.

As much fun as it has been to watching several of the Brewers pitching prospects enjoy strong starts to the season, we've been in this position before as fans watching teams that seemingly had a strong group of promising starters. I don't mean to be a wet blanket on this subject, but you can never project/predict what pitchers are going to do, although you can get exponentially more excited about them the closer they get to the big leagues. That said, I do think impact bats are a bigger priority based on need, but we also know need is not, or at least should not be a consideration when it comes to the draft, unless everything else is even. Premium positional prospects at premium defensive positions such as SS and CF would be ideal, again, if all things are even.

Brewers fan @AlfredAugust is currently asking me about the Brewers' picks via Twitter. If you don't follow me, you can read his guesses and my responses @PGPatrickEbert.

I know people get pretty excited about mock drafts, so I wanted to be sure that everyone here new that we at PG have released our first of the spring. It's for insider-level subscribers, and while I'll likely share the picks, I don't want to ruin the fun for those that actually do subscribe: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6864

We had Adam Brett Walker ranked No. 36 in our preseason rankings of the top 500 draft-eligible prospects, so if he were enjoying a stronger season you could argue that he could go anywhere from the late first to early second. So in that context, as it relates to the Brewers first 3 picks, while he may have been a realistic option at one point in time, I think it's safe to say that he no longer is. And keep in mind this also comes in response to the players that were already mentioned as possibilities in a different thread. http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6471

Rio Ruiz and Alex Bregman both have been injured this spring and aren't likely to be in the mix for the first round, and at this point in time appear more likely to go to college. Duane Underwood's ceiling is much higher as a pitcher. Victor Roache broke his wrist earlier this spring, although may return in time to reclaim his mid first-round status. Adam Brett Walker has really struggled, and isn't a likely first-round pick. Courtney Hawkins, Gavin Cecchini, Richie Shaffer and Albert Almora are very unlikely to last to the Brewers picks. Two prep hitters that have been swinging the bat well that aren't mentioned above are Mitch Nay and Avery Romero. Nay compares favorably to Nolan Arenado, who the Brewers were all over a couple of years ago, while Romero can really swing it, and may be able to make the switch from MIF to C. Texas A&M OF Tyler Naquin continues to make a strong case to be taken in the first round. David Rawnsley is going to have a mock draft that hits the PG site on Tuesday.

monkeyman's got it. The comp picks are distributed by free agent type (A vs. B) to the teams that finished with the worst record. The Elias ranking only comes into play when determining if a team gets the signing team's first, second or third (etc.) pick, which of course didn't help a couple of years ago when the Yankees signed both Teixeira and Sabathia.

The original Brewerfan.com, ahem, Brewerfan.net t-shirt is based off of this premise, although a few years way too early. I still have a few somewhere begging to be claimed. Jim Tatum, George Canale and Mike Birkbeck are three notable omissions from the players mentioned so far. And as much as Salome and Palmisano are mentioned, Jason Belcher should have been all that first.

I was most surprised that David added Fiers, but he was pretty adamant about him being a top 10 guy. And you're right TLB, he didn't address Gennett's defense, but obviously likes him quite a bit offensively. He didn't state it, but I'm sure if you asked him he would tell you that he would expect Gennett's plate discipline to improve as he progresses. I've really liked him as a hitter since his HS days as well, and was pretty excited when they signed him a couple of year ago. I'd probably put Green and Thornburg ahead of him, but it's hard to argue against that placement. I appreciate the feedback. Like I said, this is our first time hitting minor league top prospect lists, as we see almost all of these guys ourselves, and our contacts allow us to find out how they're doing now beyond just the random reports and stats will tell you. I tackled the Pirates, A's, Tigers, Blue Jays and Indians lists, helped with the Reds and still have the Yankees to finish. I was banned from doing the Brewers as we wanted our reports to be as non-biased as possible. Here is our minor league page with links to all of the team-by-team reports if you're interested: http://www.perfectgame.org/minors/default.aspx As for the 2012 draft, while the college class isn't as strong, there is some good talent to be had, and in particular the HS OF class could rival that of 2005 (Maybin, McCutchen, Bruce, etc.).

This year we (Perfect Game) took our first stab at profiling the top 10 prospects for each MLB team, following the 2012 draft order to release those lists. Today the Brewers are finally up, a good thing considering they finished with the 4th best record in all of baseball in 2011. David Rawnsley provides the analysis with a few names not typically found in Brewers' top 10 lists: http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6667

Ah yes, thanks bball, I forgot about that very key point, one of my least favorite rules of the new CBA. I still think it's a scenario we're going to see come June/July.

Paul, I'm more skeptical than most with Diekroeger. I've seen him play several times over the last 3 years and I'm not sold on him sticking at SS. I know I'm not alone, but yes, I'm sure there are others that would keep him there. The A's stuck with Grant Green at SS for as long as they did. I think he's a better fit for 3B than 2B, although I don't think he offers an impact bat no matter what position he plays. I think his teammate Piscotty does though, which is part of the reason I don't think he'll slide to the Brewers pick(s). McFarland isn't a SS long-term either IMO. I like him a lot, but more as a 2B/3B (3B is probably where he fits in best).

I think Piscotty is going to do enough between now and June to make himself not available. Of that group, I think Diekroeger will be there for sure (he's not a SS, and he doesn't hit enough for 3B) and Roache could too if he doesn't come close to matching his 2011 numbers when he hit 30 HRs. I'm just really skeptical about his swing and approach. Wacha may not be an ace, but his track record speaks for itself, and teams always draft those types of pitchers early. Fried's going to be gone among the top 5-7 picks, unless he's serious about going to UCLA. Trey Williams likely will be gone somewhere in picks 10-20. And the way Zimmer pitched in his first start of the year on Friday, in which he was 94-98 in the early innings, he could find himself being long gone by the time the Brewers pick. If it means anything to you Haudricourt told me that the Brewers would probably sign their top two selections at the expense of the rest of the draft. Take it with a grain of salt or not.... That's encouraging, and was the exact premise of what I was proposing. If you could pluck away a couple of the prep kids that fall for $3-$3.5M each that could be one heck of a draft. They need to infuse the system with some impact players, especially hitters.

One area I think teams with extra picks could really get creative is using some of that extra money to go a little bigger and target a player that has fallen farther than they should have due to money. There have been instances before where a player thought to be an early pick throws out a big number, but ends up signing for a smaller number, still higher than slot, when taken later in the draft. The Brewers are at an advantage with the new system and two extra picks in that they could combine #27 and #28 and selected and sign a player for over $3M, and still get a comp pick if they are unable to sign whoever they take with that other pick (a pick that is protected now for the two draft years that follow, not just one). Combine the money projected for the first three picks and you have over $4.5M to spend. It's a quality over quantity approach, and one that would have been just a few $100K short of landing someone like Josh Bell a year ago. Obviously you can't sign whoever the heck you want to like you could before, but again, it is one area teams with extra picks have an advantage.

I mentioned this earlier in this thread, but the Brewers draft pool should be around $7.5 million. Also, since Joey Gallo's name was recently brought up, who I comp'd to Russell Branyan, PG's National Scouting Director David Rawnsley will have Gallo's draft profile up on PG's homepage tomorrow morning, and he made a comparison of Gallo to Troy Glaus.

I think you're arguing your point without reading a word I'm saying. This is what I said above: Yes, signing over-slot will be more difficult, but why is it especially more difficult for a small-market team to go over slot now? That doesn't make any sense to me, unless you mean to say it makes it more difficult for small market teams like the Pirates to build through the draft by throwing a lot of money at players. The quotes you supplied basically supported what I was trying to say, instead of answering the question for yourself. My overlying point is that the new CBA isn't going to hurt small market teams as a whole. It's going to hurt small market teams (and any team for that matter) that have shown a willingness to spend big money through the draft. That's a big difference that needs to be clarified given the point you're trying to argue. And as an example of how it probably won't change too much, the Toronto Blue Jays the past two years amidst all of their extra, early picks spent $9 million on the players they took within the top 10 rounds. Do you know what their alloted draft pool will be for all of their picks in the top 10 rounds next year, which includes their compensatory selections? $9 million. You also forgot to supply these quotes from Callis' story as linked above: Ten weeks later, scouting directors contacted by Baseball America weren't nearly as pessimistic. The AL director doesn't anticipate that significantly fewer top prepsters will turn pro. "Everyone slams the door and says all the high school kids are going to college," the AL scouting director said. "I'm still confident. The guys who want to play pro ball will sign. Will they take less money? I still believe we'll get the same type of players but pay them less. At the end of the day, they want us if they want to play Major League Baseball." A second NL scouting director agrees, to a point. He believes it will take a year for clubs, agents and players to adjust to a new reality. "I think it's going to take us a couple or three years to get there," the second NL director said. "This group this June isn't sure what's going to happen yet. Some of these high school kids this year are going to be difficult after the first couple of rounds. We'll have to see how it unfolds." I think that's pretty much what I've been saying.

Because a small-market team will have to pass up on high-level HS talent for the mere risk that they won't be able to sign them. Large-market clubs have the resources to cushion the impact from failing to sign top-round talents (by adding via other means; international markets, free agency, etc). Take last year for example. Should there be a situation such as in 2011 where compensation was received (such as for Covey) and we have two high first-round picks under this agreement it would make it extremely difficult to sign both with the draft pool allotted. Should we sign both and punt the other rounds? I'm sorry sheetskout, but the new CBA isn't going to drastically change the way teams approach the draft, at least not the way you have outlined it. Everyone involved will know not only what teams have to spend, but what each slot's monetary value is. While I'm sure we'll see a few extra high schoolers go to college, it's important to remember that most early picks in the last several years end up signing. And the international market is going to have a similar signing bonus pool in the next year or two. I've seen a handful of people get bent out of shape about the new CBA, and most of the people/scouts/scouting directors I have talked to about it don't expect the changes to be that drastic.

I'm wondering what you think about Joey Gallo? I'm intrigued by his LH power. Edit - Did a search and saw you said he's a Branyon clone. Don't take that as a bad thing. Gallo has incredible power. Great extension in his swing, and like Branyan he doesn't get cheated, meaning he's going to whiff a lot. His power jumps to all fields. Adam Dunn could be another similar comp for Gallo. Josh Bell went for more than that as a prime example of someone who already fell (under the old agreement) because of signability and commitment. Signing over-slot will be more difficult than ever, especially for a small-market team. First of all, I don't see why this is a concern from the perspective of a Brewers fan. They never would have gone out and made a pick like the Pirates did for Bell last year. Yes, signing over-slot will be more difficult, but why is it especially more difficult for a small-market team to go over slot now? That doesn't make any sense to me, unless you mean to say it makes it more difficult for small market teams like the Pirates to build through the draft by throwing a lot of money at players. As for the mock drafts, I was mostly joking, but I honestly didn't know there were any worth reading right now to have a sense of who people thought would fall. Just because fans think that doesn't mean scouts and front office execs do too.

Yes, each team will be assigned a draft pool based on the picks they have in the top 10 rounds. If that pool is $4 million, they could give $3 million to one guys and sign the other 9 for roughly $100K each if they wanted to. Any pick after round 10 can sign for up to $100K without counting against that pool.

I think you guys are giving mock drafts a little too much credit http://www.ezboard.com/intl/aenglish/images/emoticons/smile.gif. The fact remains that most early round picks end up signing, and I don't see the new CBA affecting that too much. It definitely helps the college game. How much obviously remains to be seen, but the players that want to play are still going to sign. I don't think that point can be overstated. For a team like the Brewers, how does this hurt them? They never really went over slot anyway, aside from signing a handful of late picks like Scooter Gennett, Del Howell and Chris McFarland for early-ish round money. No teams will be able to make those type of picks/signings anymore, so that part of the draft has been leveled to an even playing field. The Cubs can't go out and sign players like Dillon Maples for $2.5M despite being taken in the 'teens, and the Reds can't hand Amir Garrett $1M as a pick in the 20s. Also, the Brewers couldn't afford to miss on early round picks for pretty much their entire existence, which is why they sucked through the 90s and early part of the 2000s and have flourished more recently. They are aided next year by having a larger draft pool for the comp picks for Fielder, so they could be a little creative with how they spend that money.

The rules are out there, it's just that so few people have access to them. Here are the rules for trading draft picks, as best as I understand them: 1. You can only trade picks during the season. 2. You can only trade draft picks from the next year's draft. 3. The draft pick trading period starts the Monday following the signing deadline, ends the last day of the season, begins the first day of the next season, and ends 2 hours prior to the beginning of the draft. 4. Teams can only trade picks that were originally assigned to them. 5. Picks can't be traded for cash, unless the cash is included to offset the salary of a player included in the trade, per the Commissioner's Office approval.

There already have been quite a few names brought up in this thread, but Kyle Zimmer is one that someone else brought up that makes a lot of sense for the Brewers. He's a bigger bodied college RHP with a live arm that fits the profile of the type of player they have been drafting in recent years. Samford's Lex Rutledge and St. John's Kyle Hansen, both of whom were drafted by the Brewers out of HS, also fit that bill. Austin Maddox, who is going to pitch out of the bullpen for the Gators while also hitting in the middle of the lineup, has a relatively fresh arm that could be an interesting conversion prospect. I saw him throw easily in the mid-90s with a sharp breaking ball at last year's CWS, and he has the body and a clean enough delivery that a starting role could be possible. Brett Mooneyham as mentioned just a few posts above is another player to watch this season after missing all of 2011. The team has showed a preference for more 'pure' hitters, players whose defensive position may be somewhat in question but show advanced skills handling the bat. Jesse Winker, Alex Bregman and Nick Williams fit this profile (although I don't think Williams makes it to #27), and college sluggers such as Adam Brett Walker and Richie Shaffer could also be in the mix. Stony Brook's Travis Jankowski, GT's Brandon Thomas and St. John's Jeremy Baltz also have advanced hitting tools. There's way too many prep pitchers that could fall into that range to mention at this point in time.

My guess is that since the 1st and the supplemental rounds will be the only time the Brewers will be able to spend relatively much in the draft, they will focus more on the HS players(they do need some high-ceiling talent). The Brewers can spend as much as they want on anyone in the top 10 rounds, without penalty, as long as they don't exceed their pre-determined draft pool. That amount for all of their picks in the top 10 rounds will be somewhere in the neighborhood of $7.5 million. So, they could sign their 10th rounder for $6.5 million and all of their other picks in the top 10 rounds for $100K each if they wanted to.

The Brewers will have picks #27, #28 and #38, not a terrible consolation prize for losing Fielder (although the Nationals' pick would have been nicer). IMO the pressure will be on to get those picks right. They can't reach for the Evan Frederickson's of the world. http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?article=6410