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Everything posted by colbyjack
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Fangraphs review of Brewers Top 10
colbyjack replied to Matt Breen's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
I agree that overall the Brewers system is down, especially after dealing Lawrie. I'm not sure if I would go as far to say they have one of the 3-5 worst systems in baseball, as the simple fact that they have developed quite a bit of their own talent from within should stand for something. Jeffress and Rogers (no D' Mass!) are huge wildcards. If their situations were less in flux (and if the Brewers had even a slightly better track record developing pitchers) the system would be considered in a lot better shape. I also contend that if Jeffress and Rogers were members of different organizations their value would be perceived differently. Both guys have touched triple digits and now have a taste for the big-leagues. And for a team that could have one of the 3-5 worse systems in baseball, their pitching depth is going to look pretty dang good on paper. However the big-league staff shakes out, you could have some collection of Rogers, Jeffress, Rivas, Butler, Hand, Kintzler, McClendon, Stetter, Lamontagne and Fiers at AAA ready to help out. Those aren't exactly household names, but the Brewers seem to be doing a much better job identifying and developing bullpen talent in particular from within (and moving it quickly). Just below them should be Heckathorn, Scarpetta and Peralta. Throw in Merklinger somewhere in that mix and you have a lot of arms to throw at a problem if things get ugly again in Milwaukee. -
I think it's more of a why would we move Cain? I don't think we are making Cain available just to get pitching. Its just that he's not untouchable in a really good offer. We have other avenues yet available to add pitching. Why take the one right now that creates a glaring hole in CF? Good assessment, as I don't really understand why a few people, at least what it seems to me, are getting so bent out of shape about the Braves eighth-best prospect. I like Beachy's upside as well, but I also really like Lorenzo Cain's. And no way do I trade both Cain and Jeffress for Beachy or Minor. That sounds painfully desperate and unnecessary to me, and I think some people are under-valuing some of the Brewers talent. If nothing else I learned how much Atlanta's system has rebounded with pitching. Forget Beachy and Minor, gimme Randall Delgado.
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I'm guessing the comment about not having the talent necessary to acquire Greinke also has something to do with the talent Melvin would be willing to part with to acquire Greinke. I highly doubt Lucroy and Escobar are going to be included in any proposed deal, and have speculated before that Cain was initially dangled to be available in the right package in an attempt to complement any package that could be used to acquire Greinke or even Garza. As endaround noted, the Brewers have the talent, but as Invader also noted, I don't think moving our three young up-the-middle talents would be very wise for the team's future, much less next season. It was 16 years in between when Lucroy and Mike Matheny made their big-league debuts, the last two regular starting catchers the Brewers developed from within. I don't think Lucroy is going anywhere. Haudricourt has been reporting the same thing for several days now as well, as it seems certain that the Royals and Brewers don't match up very well. That said, what organization has some type of combination of catcher, shortstop and centerfielder, that are close to the big leagues, that would appeal to the Royals?
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I'm not a huge Pavano fan, so I hope it's true that the Brewers won't go beyond 2 years. Losing a 2nd round pick for the guy doesn't seem right either. I do find it interesting that they won't go beyond 2 years. They went 3 with Wolf last year, and have Marcum for the next 2 as well. I'm curious if the Brewers are giving themselves a 2-year window to compete, and think clancy's idea to try and extend Fielder for 2 more years sounds better and better if that's the case.
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Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
colbyjack replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Matusz to the Orioles is like Gallardo to the Brewers. I don't think he's going anywhere, even if Fielder is involved and open to an extension. I like Britton, but the guy hasn't thrown a single pitch in the big-leagues. Trading him for Fielder straight-up would be a bad idea IMO. I have agreed that the Orioles make sense for Fielder, who are in need of some bigger bats and seem to think they're ready to compete in the AL East. -
We've talked about this before, but I don't see any way that the Brewers trade Fielder and include any money in the deal. And because of that he's not going to Tampa who clearly are trying to shed as much payroll as possible. Cain, Gamel and Jeffress does make a lot of sense, especially if Upton were part of a proposed deal. That's a lot of money coming back the Brewers way and a lot of pre-FA years to the Rays in areas they need help. I think Cain's "availability" was conveniently crafted by Melvin and the media to help his value. Of course they're not looking to trade him, but if the right deal comes along...
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We've all been talking about how pitching is at a premium, and we all know how difficult it is to acquire. Most don't think even Prince Fielder will fetch as much as he should. As already noted, the Brewers are sending something big to Toronto to acquire Marcum. I would be surprised if it were Lawrie, but you have to figure one of Jeffress or Rodgers is included. Hopefully not Odorizzi, who I would only part with if Greinke is being discussed. Good point obsessedwithbrewcrew about the Blue Jays possibly trading what they receive in return to the Royals.
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Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
colbyjack replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Adam Dunn, Victor Martinez and Jayson Werth are off the market, Adrian Gonzalez has been traded and reports indicate that Paul Konerko will re-sign with the White Sox. I would imagine Crawford is going to go off the market pretty quick, although I don't see Crawford posing as much competition as the other guys. Basically, having all of these hitters fly off the market so quickly is good for the Brewers if they are intent on dealing Prince. And it's obvious they are willing and able to spend some big bucks in the process. I can't remember if I have openly said this, but if they do trade Fielder, I hope they pursue Derek Lee. -
I just want to see some creativity out of Melvin. He's never really gone outside the box. They need to pull off some sort of trade for pitching. A lot of teams will be in on Greinke, but that doesn't mean the Brewers shouldn't be as well. I'd argue that Marcum was outside the box. It will be interesting to hear who the pitching prospects are that the Brewers deal, as it may indicate a willingness to part with young talent to compete in 2011. If there are enough pieces left, I still think the Brewers could make a strong push for Greinke.
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Jayson Werth signs with Nationals; 7 years, $126 million
colbyjack replied to trwi7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm not too surprised that the Nationals get involved, but I am surprised by the years and dollars involved. The great thing about the offseason is that all teams may think they have a chance to compete. What is a little surprising to me is that with Werth's acquisition they will be looking to move Josh Willingham, who is somewhat of a poor man's version of Werth (and similar to Hart). I think I read that they may have moved Willingham anyway, largely due to money IIRC. -
The deadline for the Red Sox and Gonzalez to agree on an extension, and reportedly the two sides aren't close. The Red Sox still may pull the trigger on this deal. And it seems as though Paul Konerko re-sigining with the White Sox is a matter of when and not if. That would leave quite a few teams out there looking for an impact bat.
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Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
colbyjack replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
And how have we been doing the past few years with that offense? I don't care for this reasoning. It's not the fault of the offense that the team hasn't played as well as hoped/expected, and not every team can win like the Giants did this past year. Good teams usually win when they have both good pitching and hitting. My view is something like this: "We should take what we can get for him right now BECAUSE we are not likely to win with him in 2011, he is almost assured of leaving after this season, and I believe we are more likely to get players who can help us in the future in a trade than in the draft". But what's the rush to make a move? If his value is at an all-time low for a variety of reasons, don't simply take what you can get for him now. If Melvin has the same philosophy, he should be fired on the spot. That's an effective way to run a franchise straight into the ground. -
Draft this guy in the rule five draft...
colbyjack replied to Hate those Rodents's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Before looking at Loewen's stats, it is easy to laugh off an idea to try him as a hitter. However, he put up solid numbers last year during his second full year as a hitter at AA, particularly in the power/patience department (his slugging isn't great, but he had 31 doubles and 13 homers). Plus, he put up big numbers in the AFL with the usual small sample disclaimer. It's not easy for a hitter to take so many years off and be successful later, as situations like Rick Ankiel and even Josh Hamilton are incredibly rare. However, it's not a bad idea, even if age isn't on his side. However, I also like the thought of Brad Emaus being in the PTBNL in the Villanueva deal. -
I have always liked zombie movies for the uneasy/anxious feeling it creates, a scary rush of sorts. The show has loads of potential, and again I recognize that it is based off of a comic, but as of right now that rush is nowhere to be found. I've watched every episode, and will watch the finale, but the show overall has been rather 'meh.' I agree with the comment from above that the show is somewhat similar to Lost. I never really watched that show, but watched it enough to get a similar vibe.
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Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
colbyjack replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
It would be very foolhardy to eat any of Fielder's contract in a trade. For God's sake, he's not Jeff Suppan. We need to back off our fixation on longshot prospects, take a deep breath and look at what this guy has done here over the past five years - even last year in a 'down' year. I know that Scott Boras is the devil, but Fielder is easily one of the top 5 players this franchise has ever developed. Guys like him don't come around very often, and I think if he gets traded, it's going to look really bad in 5 years. If he walks he walks, but this 'take whatever we can get for him' attitude that seems to be getting more prevalent is off the mark in my opinion. Well said RoCo. I'd hate to see the Brewers include any money in any Fielder deal, or settle for whatever package of players the team can get for him. If the Brewers are intent on trading Fielder, I also agree that Melvin needs to get the best package of players he can get, prospects or big-leaguers, hitters or pitchers. I'd hate to see the Brewers get a package like the one they got for Jeff Cirillo, in which the team was also intent on getting two big-league ready pitchers (Jamey Wright and Jimmy Haynes). I realize draft picks are risky, but I'd rather see the team hold onto Fielder for 2011 than settle, as we all know his value should be greater than how it is currently perceived. I can almost guarantee that Fielder is going to have a much better 2011 season, and will fetch some good talent at the trade deadline should the Brewers continue to not compete for the playoffs. And I also completely understand the argument that this team may not even be in position to go for it next year, but I highly doubt Melvin and Attanasio are going to take the same approach. Since that's the case, as I've mentioned before, I'd love to see the team go for it, make some bold moves, make a strong push for Greinke, and see what it does for them. As RoCo also pointed out, the Brewers offense is potent, and the team fared much better after the first 40 or so games of the season once they replaced Hoffman as the closer, ditched Suppan, had Hawkins go on the DL, etc., and let some young players take over to see what they can do. The team still played roughly .500 ball after that point in time, but it's proof that the Brewers do have some solid pieces in place if they make the right moves to complement the team. -
And while I don't think it does much over last year's Beltre its hard to expect Beltre to perform like he did last year going forward. I agree, but I still contend this move doesn't make the 2011 Red Sox significantly better than the 2010 Red Sox. They could have re-signed Beltre, not given up any prospects, and possibly had their 1B of the future in Anthony Rizzo in another year or two.
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From Ken Rosenthal via MLBTR: http://msn.foxsports.com/...t-after-Cliff-Lee-120310 From the story, the Royals are looking for two pitchers with Greinke type upside, so you can bet the Brewers would have to be willing to part with two of Odorizzi, Jeffress and Rodgers, one of them being MLB ready (or very close). If the Royals are focusing on arms, it's possible a deal could be made without including Lawrie. The Royals are in a perfect position since they don't have to move Greinke, but they have to be careful not to get a little too greedy as the Blue Jays were initially with Halladay. They also have to make sure they aren't too cute like the Twins were with Santana.
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Is Kevin Youkilis + Adrian Gonzalez that much better than Kevin Youkilis + Adrian Beltre? If Youkilis slides back across the diamond to third base, the Red Sox will take a step down defensively there, and how much better is Gonzalez' defense at first from Youkilis'? My point being, I don't see this being that huge of a move for the Red Sox, at least compared to what they had on their IF corners last year. It could turn out being a wash, aside from getting the player they really wanted for several years. If they add a big bat for one of their corner OF spots, like Crawford or Werth as rumored, that will be the bigger move this offseason. And aside from a few free agents signing, there are quite a few teams that haven't done much this offseason.
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Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
colbyjack replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
That's not realistic, but Fielder plus Peralta probably gets close. Jack Z. has to be feeling the heat to improve the offense. Fielder plus another player for a pitcher that hasn't thrown a single pitch in the big leagues? I know Pineda is one of the game's best pitching prospects, but on principle alone you can't make that trade. I've mentioned this before, but I think people are really under-selling Fielder's value. I understand why, but just because he only has one year left, coming off of a down season (which still was pretty good) doesn't mean he's practically worthless. And just because he only has one year left on his deal doesn't mean teams will avoid him like the plague. The Orioles headed into this offseason intent on adding a big bat or more to their lineup. They have some young talent in key places, and regardless if you feel they should sit back and wait until they are in a better position to compete, they seem intent on adding some marquee talent. Plus, they have some young pitching that could make such a deal happen. Chris Tillman is reportedly on the block for Mark Reynolds. Prince is going to have a huge year next season. As much as I recognize the value of trading him vs. getting draft picks, I almost want him to stick around to see what he does. EDIT: A good point was made about how the Gonzalez trade could set the market so to speak for Prince. Casey Kelly and Anthony Rizzo are expected to be the main prospects included, and while some publications may have rated both fairly high, I think most of us would agree that the Red Sox' prospects experience similar inflation as Yankees prospects do based on perception. And the Rangers are a team that reportedly were looking to add a big bat this offseason. They reportedly were interested in Konerko, but all of their efforts right now may be focused on Cliff Lee. That is probably what is holding up a possible deal for Greinke as well. There is going to be a lot more activity and clarity once a few more of these transactions occur, making a few more teams in the mix. -
Adam Dunn to the White Sox - 4 years/$56 mil
colbyjack replied to Invader3K's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
One less place for Prince to go in all likelihood. It's also one less big bat on the market. Keep in mind the Nationals didn't trade Dunn at the deadline because word had it that they wanted to re-sign him long-term. The Nationals may still be pretty bad, but they have been making moves as though they're intent on putting the best team on the field that they can. I wouldn't be surprised if they inquired about Fielder, even if the two teams don't match up particularly well. I'm still keeping an eye on the Orioles. If they lose out on Konerko, like they did with V-Mart, I could see them getting involved. The faster these bats are scooped up, the better for the Brewers (if you're a proponent of them deadling Prince). -
Draft this guy in the rule five draft...
colbyjack replied to Hate those Rodents's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Pelzer looks to have a far lower ceiling than Rodriguez. Pelzer has a far superior arm to Rodriguez. Rodriguez profiles at best as a 4/5, whereas Pelzer could develop into a set-up man. You could argue the ceiling between those two profiles, but I don't think they are far lower or higher in either direction. Plus, there's a reason both guys are available. Arguing one over another is like arguing Matt Kinney vs. Wayne Franklin. -
Draft this guy in the rule five draft...
colbyjack replied to Hate those Rodents's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I'm hoping for Wynn Pelzer, a live armed RHP from the O's that may project best as a reliever. Even then, he has arguably the best arm available, and like Rodriguez, would probably require a trade of some kind to get him. Matt Sweeney is an interesting 3B with a power LH bat. He has some 3TO to him like Mark Reynolds, although could really struggle since he didn't have the greatest season. That said, I still like the guy. -
Team by team analysis of Fielder trade partners
colbyjack replied to NYChez's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Teams might have a passing interest, but I don't think anyone will come calling for awhile. Hopefully things amp up at the winter meetings, or I'll lose hope in the situation. You said it yourself, teams may not come calling for a while, so I wouldn't lose hope in the situation if we don't hear things between now and the end of the winter meetings. I think many to most of the bigger bats currently available via free agency are going to have to sign before a team is willing to trade what Melvin probably is looking for to obtain Prince. I don't think Prince's value is as low as many are projecting, since impact bats like his are still hard to come by, but I think most teams are going to try and get involved with a player that "only" costs them a big money contract and not players/pitching in return via trade. -
Probably due to my Packers hangover, but why would Vazquez care about the arbitration clause? Just to help make him more sign-able next offseason? In the event he does have a huge season with the Marlins and potentially improves his free agent status to a Type A, teams may be more hesitant to sign him if it cost them a first-round pick (or even a second).
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I agree that Vazquez would be a perfect fit, and not just because I've always liked the guy. He's only looking for a one-year deal, as he wants to re-establish his value on the market. That means he's going to be determined to improve, and as I've pointed out before, he seems to be better in odd-number years recently. I know others have mentioned that his velocity was down a few ticks this year, but I could see him performing a lot better in the NL, not to mention away from NY. The Marlins supposedly are in on him, but it doesn't look as though they have the money as it stands right now to sign him, and they've already shed a significant chunk of payroll with their early trades so far. I just feel a lot better about him for one year, bridging the gap another season, than giving a guy like Pavano or de la Rosa a 3-4 year deal in the $40-50 million range. And it seems as though the Brewers have kicked the tires on just about every pitcher out there, so I would be surprised if they haven't done so with Vazquez.

