colbyjack

It just seems as though there is going to be a pretty hefty bidding war for Lackey, and whenever that happens it always seems as though it is best to stay out of the bidding instead of being the team that gave up the most money. Usually, teams seem to regret such investments, and the Brewers aren't in a position to be that team. Like twobrewers, I'm interested in guys like Brett Myers and Noah Lowry, who to me seem to have a pretty high "could use a change of scenery" ceiling to get themselves back on track to prior success.

We discussed Doumit briefly at the end of this thread, but yeah, the Pirates don't need catching help. The Pirates may be a good fit to trade with, because they may be open to receiving quality A-ball prospects in return for him if that is the best they can do while also trimming their payroll some more. They traded Freddy Sanchez to the Giants for Tim Alderson, a talented pitching prospect, but one that had not progressed past 13 starts at the AA level after starting the season in A-ball (and Doumit isn't going to fetch the same kind of talent in return). And at this point, they probably could care less about trading with a divisional opponent (and vice versa).

Those are all decisions that don't have to be made for at least 6-12 months. I don't think that by acquiring Gomez the team's CF job is settled for the next 2-4 years. Cain can continue to be brought along patiently, since he did have a disappointing 2009 season. Assuming Cain is at AAA and Schafer is at AA, the Brewers actually have some nice, young talent at the position to play with. I know quite a few people assume that Angel Salome is likely to be dangled this offseason given Jonathan Lucroy's progression, and maybe Cain will be too. But again, it's a good problem to have depth, especially with so much uncertainty as to how these players will perform. There's no rush to figure out how that depth fits in now, and I'd prefer to see it held onto, if possible, just in case the players we think will succeed don't.

Thanks for the tip PrinceFielderx1, and thanks for the link, linkmaster Mass. Just to be clear, Melvin didn't say that Lucroy will get the chance, but that he will be seriously considered for the chance. A couple of his quotes were along the lines of "we are going to seriously consider him," and "we probably will seriously look at Lucroy." That's a big heap of praise, but he hasn't been handed the job, yet.

Tony Sanchez (he went 4th overall) is his name, and he appears to be taking the fast track to the big leagues. You're right though, his presence makes Doumit expendable, as does that of Jeff Clement (more likely to play 1B), Racine native Jason Jaramillo and Robinson Diaz.

I'd like to sign Dye, and insert him in the 5 hole, but I'm not so sure he could handle playing in the OF everyday anymore. I think Dye is stuck in the AL, likely as a DH to finish his career. I doubt this means much to the Braves, or the Brewers for that matter.

I missed the Doumit reference as well, but that is an interesting idea and a pretty good call given how the two teams could match up. I could definitely see the Pirates looking to shed Doumit's salary ($3.5M in 2010, $5.1M in 2011, options in '12 & '13) for a lower level prospect or two.

You're far to modest YostInfection. That was a good call. What's next? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

I think JohnBriggs mentioned it before, but I would wait to see if Miguel Olivo and the Royals exercise the mutual option, which I believe is due either today or tomorrow. I would target him in a two-year deal with an option for a third. That gives both Lucroy and Salome a full year at AAA, and letting the best man win the backup job for 2011, with the other going back to AAA that year for more work (and depth). Of course most of the team's other efforts should be on pitching.

Teams certainly seem to be jumping on trades early this year that offer payroll (and roster) flexibility. To Messiah's point, I'm a little surprised the Marlins moved Hermida so quickly for seemingly so little. I know he hasn't lived up to expectations, but Theo Epstein openly admitted how excited he is to acquire such a talented player when his value was low (per MLB Trade Rumors). Unless the Marlins really didn't want to deal within their division, I would have to think the Braves in particular would have given up some talent to add a left-handed corner OF bat from their own backyard. It makes me wonder if the Brewers might try to move Hardy sooner rather than later to accomplish the same thing.

I would love to convince myself that Gomez could be a good player. His physical tools sure are exciting, but it's a little puzzling to me why he was pushed along as quickly as he was. He never posted that great of numbers or ratios in the minors, and his career numbers at the big league level look like a Bill James projection based on his career numbers from the minors. I like the idea of his speed and defense, and I also think he could significantly improve given his age and talents, but he does have quite a few big-league PAs under his belt with seemingly little to no improvement. I also agree that in theory trading Hardy for him would essentially be a $14 million swing, since Gomez would be replacing Cameron, at least his defense. The drop-off in offense is significant, as you would really have to hope for an upgrade(s) elsewhere to make up for that difference, and I'm not so sure that is a realistic expectation. The Twins are a good team to deal with if you're looking for a CF, since they have Denard Span and two of their top prospects in the minors (Revere & Hicks), but I also agree that the Brewers are more likely to dangle Hardy for pitching.

The Twins would make a good trading partner this offseason. If not for Hardy, than possibly for either McGehee or Gamel, but the Twins always seem to make the most of infielders along the lines of Jason Bartlett, Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla. Perkins hasn't been particularly good in his first two full years as a starter, but he's still young and has promise to make him a solid pickup if he starts to step up, and the switch to the NL may help. Anthony Swarzak would be another pitcher I would target if I were the Brewers, assuming the Twins are going to hold onto Blackburn, Baker, Liriano and Slowey. They don't have to get too cute improving their offense, since Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, Kubel and Span give them some pretty solid performers, and Delmon Young may have came into his own over the last few weeks of the season.

I didn't want to start a new thread on this, and since it was BA that came out with it, I thought I would place the story here. This picture graces BA's homepage today: http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/mascots09428309.jpg Some Teams Thrived In Tough Economy

I also find it interesting that you think it would take Fielder to acquire a Buchholz type talent. Since I value your opinion, I'd love to hear what type of pitcher you think we could get for Hardy, Hart, Gamel and McGehee type players. I was under the impression that Hardy and Gamel would've been enough to get Buchholz. Young pitchers, especially power arms like Buchholz are really hard to come by. You really have to give up more talent than you may expect to acquire an arm like that. If Fielder were dealt, I definitely would expect more in return than a pitcher like Buchholz, but he would be the centerpiece of such a proposed deal. If Hardy and Gamel would be enough, I make that trade without blinking. Michael Bowden may be a more realistic target from the Red Sox for Hardy. I'm not sure what to expect for Hardy and the rest of the hitters mentioned. Jonathan Sanchez is frequently brought up here, and that is probably the type of arm one could expect, possibly even straight up for Hart given the Giants' need for bats. It really is a shame that Hardy had such a rough season, as dealing him when his value is low pretty much sucks (although it does help that he plays shortstop and is a strong candidate to rebound significantly next year), but I do believe he is as good as gone. Since the team doesn't have much pitching in the upper levels to complement a Hardy deal, I'm not particularly optimistic of what the team will be able to get in return. Maybe you could land a decent pitcher if you were to package Hardy with someone like Gamel or McGehee, Salome or Lucroy and possibly even Carlos Villanueva (just throwing out some names off of the top of my head), but such a pitcher isn't going to come without significant warts to his game. Jeremy Guthrie has been brought up before as well, as I could see that kind of swap for Hardy.

Lowry has had a pretty solid career, at least prior to 2008. Sure, he isn't a top of the rotation starter, but his career numbers are better than pretty much the Brewers entire starting staff from last year outside of Gallardo. I really like him as a possible reclamation project. I've always like Brett Myers as well, who has been incredibly inconsistent throughout his career, but has shown some pretty good flashes, including his start against the Brewers in the postseason last year. I know others have said it, but I would target one reclamation type pitcher like Myers or Lowry, or someone that Rick Peterson and the team's advance scouts have pretty good reports on, and one more proven commodity like Doug Davis, Justin Duchscherer, Randy Johnson (if he's healthy enough to return -- Melvin pursued Johnson last offseason despite his desire to stay on the West Coast) or even Ben Sheets. I'm not as confident as the team acquiring a solid starter via trade, since I don't believe the Brewers are willing to deal what would be required to land such a pitcher. I do believe Melvin is intent on keeping Fielder, so unless the team can get more than we might expect for Hardy, Hart, Gamel, McGehee or some combination of those players, I think the best bet is to trust the professional scouts and try to find a reclamation project similar to Jaret Wright of the Braves a few years back. I know that's difficult, since you can't count on that type of production, but if a few of those types of guys are added you increase your chance of one making you look good. This is all assuming the Brewers aren't going to do something surprising like spending big bucks on John Lackey or dealing Fielder for someone like Buchholz.

Some people don't think his delivery is particularly smooth. Like I said, I didn't see anything wrong with it and felt overall his arm and body worked really well with no wasted movement, but evaluating pitching mechanics isn't my specialty. Also, he needs to develop a changeup. I'm guessing that is something he was working on this summer, but the times I saw him in the spring he was a 2-pitch pitcher.

I'm sorry you got visions of Turnbow with my description TLB, they're really nothing alike. Turnbow has (had) the livest of live arms, and a wicked nasty slider that were tailor made for a closer's role. He was about as max effort as you get. When I talk about generating velocity from the bottom up, I'm talking about a nice and easy delivery, in which no part moves more quickly or violently than another. By the time that momentum reaches his upper body and his arm, the ball is released from the hand without much visual effort. There's no head snap, he doesn't noticeably fall over to one side of the rubber, etc. Andy Benes is one comparison I often think of with such pitchers. A taller, well built, proportional athlete that really makes throwing the ball hard look so easy. IMO, nothing Turnbow did looked easy.

I fell in love with Arnett after seeing him pitch twice last spring. The first came against Iowa I believe in early April, and the second time was against Purdue in the Big Ten championship. I wrote this story after watching Arnett pitch the second time. As you can tell, I walked away incredibly impressed. There's plenty of upside with Arnett. In the first game I saw, he was throwing in the low-90s with his good slider. In the second game, he was 94-96 with even more bite on his slider (it was considerably warmer the second time I saw him pitch, but he was still dominant in both appearances). There's some sink on his fastball, and while he walked to many batters, he was always around the zone. As I noted in my write-up, I also liked the way he attacked hitters, and think it will serve him well as a pro. So many college pitchers are taught to work around the strike zone since the aluminum bat is a sweet spot stick, and this often can cause some problems for college pitchers learning to pitch more to contact at the next level (this is frequently brought up in the coaches and scouts I speak to that cover the Northwoods League, where pitchers also have a hard time going from facing aluminum bats in the spring to wood ones in the summer). I didn't see anything that stood out significantly about his throwing motion, but I'm not an expert on the subject. It's clear he has very good overall athleticism, as he is balanced on the mound and repeated his delivery well. Last year was the most he has ever pitched, meaning he could just be scratching the surface of what he's capable of. I really liked the pick, and won't fault the Brewers for taking him even if it doesn't work out. I still can't believe that many teams passed on him. If you had to pick one or two guys from the "Rouding out the bats" segment of your review that have the best chance to blossom beyond organizational soldiers and/or role players, who would they be, and why? It would definitely be Brownstein, who has a little Dustin Pedroia to him in that he doesn't have the greatest tools (although Pedroia was a good enough athlete to be drafted in the second round), but he makes up for it with an incredible approach to the game. He is very disciplined at the plate, has some speed to burn teams on the basepaths, and is a good contact hitter that consistently puts the ball in play. There isn't much power, and he's limited defensively. I think he's going to max out in the upper levels, but he could get a cup of coffee or two if his hustle allows him to impress the right people. Peter Fatse would probably be my second choice, since he is a decent overall athlete with the ability to play both 2B and the outfield. That versatility and his overall skill-set could make him a utility sleeper down the road

Aaron Fitt of BA has tons of good college tidbits here including this: IIRC, Decker ended the 2008 season with an injury as well, and since his speed has never been his strength, this isn't good news for a guy that clearly was hoping to turn his success for the Gophers into an NFL career.

Thanks again for the kind words. I do appreciate it! I really liked the team's draft, largely because I was a big fan of Arnett, Davis, Richardson and Gennett going into draft day. Getting Gennett and Howell signed and in the system as mid-teen picks for respectable six-figure bonuses was huge. I would probably put the Brewers '09 draft effort in the upper third of drafts since they did have extra, early picks and made some aggressive selections that clearly required significant monetary investments to add to the system. After spending almost all of their premium picks on arms in 2008, the team seemed to go for more quality, although as I observed at the team's pre-draft event at MP, they invited an impressive group of college pitchers that they obviously were interested in (Aaron Miller, Matt Bashore, Mike Belfiore and a few others that I'm forgetting were among the invitees that went in the early rounds to other teams). Meaning, if the draft had gone a little differently, the team may have loaded up on college arms once again. I would feel better about the '09 draft if Walla and Garfield had performed better than they did and if we got a taste of what Davis, Richardson and Gennett are capable of professionally. We should have a better idea of all five of those guys by mid-summer next year, and hopefully Josh Prince takes another step forward at the plate as well. That's a pretty encouraging infusion of bats (three of whom bat left-handed) of which hopefully at least one if not two or three emerge to become some of the team's top prospects by this time next year.

It's that time of the year again. Just when things get slow for baseball news, Baseball America starts their team-by-team top prospect lists. The National League is up first this year, starting with Jason Heyward and the Braves. Here is a link for all of the top prospect lists and corresponding chats: Baseball America top prospect lists Speaking of Heyward, he is one of the game's brightest young stars, and was a player many around these parts wanted the Brewers to add in the 2007 draft. It's hard to argue with LaPorta, who netted the Brewers Sabathia (and the playoffs), but it would be nice to have Heyward in the system as an impact left-handed bat the team could certainly use.

Prince needs to continue to progress with his bat. It's nice to see him draw walks and steal bases, but he need to hit, and show that he can hit for some power as well. The potential is there, any hopefully we'll see more of that next year. However, I think that means we need to be a little more patient with his timetable. Thanks for the kind words. Good call on adding the positions, I think I used to do that and overlooked that this year. Reviewing past drafts is a good idea, but it comes down to a matter of time. I have reviewed past drafts before -- look in the right-hand column off of my draft review story for my draft retrospective series from a handful of years ago.

I've been a little gun-shy about players putting on huge pre-draft performances ever since watching Josh Murray belt line drive after line drive over the left field fence at Miller Park back in 2002. They seemed to have fallen for another big pre-draft performance when Evan Frederickson was throwing in the upper 90s at Miller Park in '08. One of the first things I learned in my work with Perfect Game was not to fall too far in love with one player over one game or a stretch of consecutive games. That is what led to my interest in Nathan Bridges, who most people that read this forum probably have no clue is. That said, the reports out of Arizona on Walla were still strong. Bill Mitchell of BA noted how much Walla still impressed observers with his bat speed, but he clearly has work to do improving his strike zone recognition. I don't like how much work appears to be needed, as you would expect such as early draft pick with his kind of reputation to post much better numbers. I've never seen Walla in person, so I have to rely completely on the numbers and the reports we do have at our disposal. The Brewers have been more aggressive with their placement of hitters in recent years (Brewer, Lawrie) than pitchers, so Wisconsin could be a possibility. After seeing him struggle (and after Cutter Dykstra's struggles) I would like to see Walla earn an aggressive promotion by proving he deserves to be there on the field. That's a little tough, since the Pioneer League season doesn't begin until mid-June, but hopefully he did enough in instrux and will do enough in spring training to garner such a bump. Starting at Helena isn't necessarily a bad thing, but he needs to hit. How many early draft picks do you see struggle early in their minor league career only to rebound later on their ascent to the big leagues?

Visit the homepage for my annual draft review story: 2009 Draft Review

Nice to see one of the Brewers featured in a AFL story. Also nice to see Cain get on base again after struggling to do so over the last week. http://mlb.mlb.com/images/2009/10/30/8WwkIN7h.jpg Lucroy paces Javelinas' attack Brewers catcher homers, drives in three in 5-4 win Jonathan Lucroy's focus and positive attitude are beginning to pay dividends, as Friday's performance showed. Lucroy homered and drove in three runs as the Peoria Javelinas held on to defeat the Phoenix Desert Dogs, 5-4, on Friday. The Brewers prospect staked the Javelinas to an early 1-0 lead, homering in the second inning off former Orioles third-round pick Brandon Erbe. Lucroy, who splits time at catcher with Dodgers farmhands Lucas May and Jesse Mier, later added a decisive two-run single for first-place Peoria. "I go into the cage between games," said Lucroy, Milwaukee's third-round selection in the 2007 Draft. "I don't take my days off lightly, they're just days I'm not catching. I just try to stay positive and stay focused." Lucroy's focus is on reaching the Majors sooner rather than later. He was a South Atlantic League All-Star in 2008 for Class A West Virginia, and made the Southern League All-Star team in 2009 with Double-A Huntsville, batting .267 with 66 RBIs. That success, however, isn't enough for him. "I don't know what the Brewers plans are for me, but I'm just going to work hard," Lucroy said. "I'm not going to settle for being in the Minor Leagues next year, I want to be in the big leagues." Fellow Brewers prospect Lorenzo Cain reached base three times and picked up his fourth stolen base. Angels outfielder Andrew Lambo, batting .404 in Arizona, drove in a run, singling twice as the designated hitter batting cleanup. Chris Marrero (Nationals) homered for the Desert Dogs and collected his sixth multi-hit game of the season while Brad Snyder, Baltimore's first-round pick in 2005, doubled and drove in his 16th run, good for third best in the league. Phillipe Aumont, Seattle's top pick in the 2007 Draft, was credited with his first win for the Javelinas despite giving up four runs on four hits in 1 1/3 innings. He struck out two. Peoria starter Scot Drucker (Tigers) allowed three hits in four innings, fanning two. Erbe was charged with one run on three hits in 4 1/3 frames. He whiffed five before Paul Phillips (Rays) allowed four runs on five hits in 1/3 of an inning to suffer the loss. 10/30 Box Score