colbyjack

Bush is plenty talented, but he's not Josh Hamilton talented. Hamilton had the type of talent coming out of high school that drew raves and comparison to pure athletic talent reserved for players like Griffey, Arod and Justin Upton. Bryce Harper is going to be next in line, already getting the same type of hype as a high school sophomore not eligible for the draft until 2011. Bush was a bad pick at #1 overall as soon as it happened. BA has talked about this as well, as he was a top 10 talent, but far from a 1/1.

Bush is plenty talented, but he's not Josh Hamilton talented. Hamilton had the type of talent coming out of high school that drew raves and comparison to pure athletic talent reserved for players like Griffey, Arod and Justin Upton. Bryce Harper is going to be next in line, already getting the same type of hype as a high school sophomore not eligible for the draft until 2011. Bush was a bad pick at #1 overall as soon as it happened. BA has talked about this as well, as he was a top 10 talent, but far from a 1/1.

No, I don't like the compensation system as it is, and I made one suggestion above. I also think the compensation is a little opposite, since I think the worse team that loses a free agent ranked similar to another one should get the higher pick, while the sandwich picks should be handed out in order of the free agent rankings. But in that scenario, the Brewers would still end up with the Yankees 2nd rounder since the Jays were the worse of the three teams that lost a Type A FA to the Yankees. Toby's idea is interesting, and I have thought before that instead of giving one team's pick to another, why not just strip that team of that pick and give the teams that lose free agent picks some kind of systematic combination of picks in the sandwich round. For instance, with the Brewers losing one Type A and one Type B free agent they would get three comp picks since they didn't sign a notable free agent that was offered arbitration. Or, remove the arbitration part from this part of the compensatory process, and award picks based on overall free agent activity, similar to the NFL (although make the rules more defined than the NFL). However, I do like how random the process can be, as MLB's compensation system is different from the NFL's and from the NBA's. It is weird, quirky stuff like that which makes the game (and the draft) that much more interesting. You almost wonder how the heck someone even thought of some of these things, because it doesn't always make much sense.

Honestly though with the disparity in payroll in baseball continuing to grow it seems most of the big free agents only have about 6-8 teams that can afford them at the most so it seems like it is likely to happen again. Is the disparity getting bigger? The Brewers payroll is up in the $80-90 million dollar range, so you could argue that locally the disparity has gotten smaller over the past few years since the Yankees payroll really hasn't gotten bigger, the Brewers just happened to catch them during an offseason in which they had a lot of money coming off of the books. The disparity remains the difference between the Yankees and the Red Sox, and the Red Sox and the Mets, Dodgers and Angels and then the difference between everyone else. Also the idea that a guy like Ibanez nets a better package of picks than CC or Burnett leads me to believe that a way to pool comp picks and then give them out in order of rankings would be better, but maybe that would be chaos. You shouldn't look at it as the package of picks. Again, it's the circumstance. You can argue that Ibanez shouldn't garner the Mariners as high as a sandwich pick as he does, or at least not a better sandwich pick that Sabathia garners the Brewers, but really, how can you argue the other pick and the entire "package" of picks? If Ibanez too signed with the Yankees, that comparison wouldn't even apply. It's luck of the draw, and luck unfortunately isn't on the Brewers side this offseason. It's kind of like the overtime rule in the NFL. When the Packers lost to the Bears in overtime this past year, the rules (locally) were questioned again and again. However, were the rules questioned a year ago when the Packers beat the Broncos in overtime? What makes one win indifferent and a similar loss unfair? No one would even be questioning the draft rules on this forum if it weren't for what happened this offseason.

The only reason this is a big issue is because a very unlikely and uncommon situation happened. I'm unhappy that the Brewers didn't land the Yankees first-round pick, but not because of a flawed system, but due to unfortunate circumstances. How often are there free agents like Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia available, and how often are they ranked as closely as they are as the top two free agents available that end up signing with the same team? Now, that doesn't mean the system couldn't use some tweaks, although I think the next change may see compensatory picks done away with completely. There simply isn't enough support or interest from ownership or the players to push this forward. They tried during the CBA before the last one, and appointed a committee to institute new changes, but nothing ever happened. However, there needs to be some kind of compensatory system in place. I think the biggest tweak that needs to be made is addressing the supplemental picks, in that teams that go out and sign a Type A free agent after losing a Type A free agent should not receive a compensatory pick. Oddly enough, that hasn't happened yet this offseason (at least not that I can think of), but we've seen plenty of similar situations in the past. What that does is whittles down the sandwich round, as the true reason for the draft is to give the worst teams the best opportunities to select and sign the best players. The long the sandwich round means the longer the worst teams at the top of the second round have to wait to make their second pick.

If you value statistics, you might have thought that Matt Wieters should not have been a 1st round pick. I think that had a lot to do with perception. I tackled that very subject a couple of springs ago when Wieters' production was questioned leading up to the 2007 draft: http://www.pgcrosschecker...24%5Fmodel%5Fconsistency/ His numbers were still very, very good, it's just that he was good from the moment he stepped on campus. I do agree that scouting has more to do with projection than production, but there are instances (Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia) in which you have to believe in the numbers a little to overlook the lack of physical projection. Easier said than done, but that is a reason I have been a fan of promoting A.J. Pollock this spring. It's not like any of those three are lead-foot oafs, but I know brewerguy71 and I have had a few conversations before about Pollock's ceiling. And if you rely completely on stats and/or the college route, you end up with the system like the A's (minus the trades they have made) in which they have had a very hard time in recent years developing impact talent.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/images/sstrasburg09428309js.jpg Baseball America's early draft coverage kicked off today, profiling top prospect Stephen Strasburg and offering their top 33 draft prospects (factoring in the compensation picks for unsigned first-rounders a year ago). Since the stories are for subscribers only, I'm only going to link to their draft default page. I'm sure you know how to get there by now anyway. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/ One story in particular is a must-read, as Jim Callis takes an early look at a few of the draft stories we may be following between now and draft day: http://www.baseballameric...-preview/2009/267545.html In particular, how is the economy going to effect the draft? We're certainly seeing it effect free agent activity, as outside of the Yankees prices league-wide seem to be down. While this will never stop Scott Boras from asking for record-breaking deals (it should be noted that the two record-breaking deals from a year ago were for non-Boras clients, Tim Beckham and Buster Posey), you have to figure the players have taken notice of this and may be more anxious to sign because of it. It may also cause some teams to make stretches with their picks to identify players that will sign quickly for money less than slot value. Since the Brewers will have extra picks again (although probably fewer than expected given the turn of events with Ben Sheets), this could once again play a part in their decisions. I doubt it, since the team does seem to be somewhat financially stable given their payroll, projected ticket sales, 2009 expectations, etc., and they did note last year that they had budgeted appropriately to sign all of their extra picks for slot value while also adding in their usual collection of later-round/early round money investments. However, you just never know.

Seid wasn't in on Weeks. Seid has always been a West Coast guy, and Weeks is from Florida and went to college at Southern. In addition to Green, David Krynzel, Steve Hammond, Tony Gwynn Jr. and Adam Heether have been among some of his more notable additions to the system over the years. Although I'm not sure it's fair to look at the players he has signed to try and try to assess his talent evaluation. The Brewers in general haven't hit California particularly hard over the years. Most of their premium picks and prospects seem to hail from Maine down to Florida. Seid has been responsible (along with Corey Rodriguez IIRC) for assembling and coaching the Brewers Area Code teams, which has given him a first-hand look at the premium high school players from the state of California. Last year he was the West Coast Crosschecker responsible for supporting the area guys that led to the selections of players such as Cutter Dykstra, Evan Frederickson, Logan Schafer and Erik Komatsu.

Thanks CheezWizHed, but we have a thread dedicated to minor league transactions: http://brewersfandemonium...ku.com?topic=16292?page=2

With Oliver Perez and Jason Varitek both re-signing over the past several days with their 2008 ballclubs, most of the Brewers picks bumped up a pair of spots (at least according to my running list, which started out as a "worst-case" scenario for draft pick compensation -- refer to reply #10 in the draft resource thread). Still available that could effect comp picks are Type A FAs Manny Ramirez (many seem to assume he'll end up back with the Dodgers), Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Hudson and Juan Cruz. Type Bs include Paul Byrd (could retire, expected to take first few months off), Mark Grudzielanek and Dennys Reyes (originally thought that he would re-sign with Twins).

I missed the Dodgers on Friday, and the Padres are up today. The Padres really need to inject some talent into their system (despite having a ton of picks a couple of years ago), while the Dodgers' system doesn't look as strong as it has in past years: Dodgers: http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267509.html Padres: http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267514.html And that wraps up the team-by-team top prospects. Here's a link to access all of their lists and chats: http://www.baseballameric...on-top-10-prospects/2009/ Anyone want to take a shot at ranking them? The Rays and Rangers are likely the favorites for the top two spots.

We're still about a month away from the college baseball season to start (jucos are underway this weekend), but several publications have already started their college baseball preview features. I'll kick this thread off with my own personal top 10 going into the season: http://www.pgcrosschecker...yArticle.aspx?article=538 Here's my PG All-American team from a couple of weeks ago: http://www.pgcrosschecker...ason_College_AA_Team.aspx Unfortunately I'm not going to be able to make the DQ Classic (Feb 27-Mar 1) at the Metrodome this year as I have a few times the past couple of years. There really isn't one premier matchup like there was a year ago between Brett Hunter of Pepperdine and Shooter Hunt of Tulane, but UC Santa Barbara will be in attendance with a rather impressive weekend starting staff. Host Minnesota will also welcome Hawaii and Washington. Washington would be a must-see game if QB/CF Jake Locker were playing baseball this spring. Minnesota has a pair of intriguing draft-eligible prospect in 2B Derek McCallum and OF Eric Decker, both of whom should go in the top 3-10 rounds. The Big Ten this season will kick off the year dueling the Big East in the inaugural Big Ten/Big East Challenge at various locations in Florida, February 20-22. The best prospects in the Big Ten this season are LHP Matt Bashore and C Josh Phegley of Indiana. If you can catch a Friday Hoosiers game this season, you'll be in for a treat. As for other area college talent, A.J. Pollock of Notre Dame is probably the best prospect that is the closest to the Milwaukee area. Louisville and Missouri are the two best national programs closest to the area if you're looking for a spring road trip. As the college baseball season progresses we'll be sure to post interesting storylines, observations, stats, etc., within this thread, and welcome you to do the same.

The Giants are covered today, whose system has gotten significantly better the past two years. Given how much better they have been in recent years developing arms, it also looks like they may just have an impact bat or two on the horizon, at premium positions to boot. http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267493.html

Ben Badler of BA gives Alcides Escobar some more love today after speaking with scouts who had the chance to see him play in Venezuela: http://www.baseballameric...om/blog/prospects/?p=2114

That's a great question biedergb, and there is no precedent for that. I remember Clemens wasn't offered arbitration that year, since the old rules stipulated that the previous team couldn't negotiate with such players until May 1st, or something like that. If I had to guess I would say that the draft compensation would expire on draft day, but I'll have to reach out to Jim Callis and see if he has any idea. This is possibly the weirdest offseason I have ever witnessed, at least as it pertains to free agents.

That's a great question SenatorShriv. Examples of such players include Xavier Nady and Vince Sinisi, both Scott Boras clients that received big bonuses as 2nd rounders. Luke Hochevar fell out of the first round in 2005, but was the first overall pick the next year. Players such as Daniel Bard and Rick Porcello were close to falling out of the first round a couple of years ago, but didn't, while Matt Harvey fell out of the first round a few years ago, but likely will be a top 10 draft pick coming out of UNC for the 2010 draft. I'm sure I"m forgetting someone, but it's more likely to happen to a high school player, where college obviously is a huge factor playing against teams trying to sign players, but you don't see too many college draftees that should be drafted in the first round not. And of course, while Nady has become a solid ballplayer, he's far from a high profile star. Joba Chamberlain fell out of the first round, although more due to injury concerns than signability, and he only signed for $200-300k more than a typical supplemental first-rounder would have received in 2006.

The Diamondbacks don't look to have the best top 10 list on paper, but the top few prospects would seem to have a fairly high chances of having some big-league success. Jarrod Parker figures to follow Clayton Kershaw as the game's best prep pitching prospect, and Wisconsinites have to root for Mark Hallberg's ascent to Arizona. http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267467.html

PG Crosschecker has released their top 250 Juco players. Here are the former Brewers draftees of interest: #15, LHP Chad Bell, Walters State #25, RHP Tommy Collier, San Jacinto #35, RHP Connor Hoehn, St. Petersburg #168, RHP Calvin Drummond, Orange Coast #237, RHP Matt Sergey, Broward

If you check the draft resource thread (pinned at the top) you'll see I have a running tab of the draft order. Unlike BA, I'm working in reverse order, initially assuming that all of the free agents will sign elsewhere.

Cruising right along, BA turns to the NL West this week, with the Rockies up today. The Rockies have one of the better presences in Latin America, and their everyday CF of the future, Dexter Fowler, should be with the big-league club at some point this season, possibly on opening day. http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267482.html

My PG colleague Anup Sinha (recently added to the staff after spending several years as a scout with the Padres and Cardinals -- some fans may remember Anup from his days with Team One) has written an interesting analysis about staff aces and where they come from: http://www.pgcrosschecker...yArticle.aspx?article=532

The Reds list came out Friday. They too have some nice talent, but you don't look up and down their list and think that the Brewers have to worry about them competing due to internal talent anytime soon. http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267416.html

A few Q&As from an ESPN chat with Jim Callis that pertain to a few of the discussions above: Keep in mind, that's just Jim Callis' ranking, but that give you a pretty good idea of where the teams should fall into place. I think a few people around here guessed that the Brewers would be around 10.

Dangit! I know the previous post pertaining to this made it sound concrete, but I still held out hope that Powell was just one of many people in the running for the Braves job, and that the Brewers were only asking people to send in their resumes as a precautionary measure. When I told my wife, who doesn't follow the Brewers nearly as close as I or anyone else here does, but is subjected to listening to almost every game during the year, that Powell may move on to another team she audibly gasped. She then yelled "No! He can't do that! They can't let him do that!" It's just one of those personal relationships you build with the broadcasters over the years (IMO, more so from the radio broadcasts) that make such divorces very difficult to move on from. I'm happy for JP because it's clearly a step up for him (not the Brewers vs. Braves thing, but being the #1 guy) while he also gets to return home. As noted in the linked story, he has some big shoes of his own to fill, and I'm guessing that is a voice he grew up listening to. Given how passionate and loyal Powell has been about the Milwaukee Brewers from top to bottom I'm confident he's going to be keeping a watchful eye on this club over the years, and hopefully he will even give this site a glance from time to time. But this sucks for us. This sucks for me as someone who listens to a lot more games on the radio than I did watch them on TV. If you are out there Jim, thank you so much for your dedication to the team and the game of baseball, and thanks for allowing me and my family to become connected a little better, not only to the Brewers and the game itself, but to you as well. You will be missed. (I going to blame his departure on the ridiculous Kohl's sponsorship that WTMJ unfairly subjected Ueck and Powell to.) Also, the Brewers may be criticized for a lot of things over the years, but they have done a pretty amazing job identifying and developing TV and radio personalities.

Moving onto the remaining teams that haven't been covered, the Pirates are up today. Their system looks so much better with an impact player like Pedro Alvarez sitting on top, but they have a long, long way to go before their fortunes will start to turn around at the big-league level. http://www.baseballameric...rospects/2009/267437.html