JJHardy7

Don't underestimate how much the Brewers value his work with the pitching staff. And they're right, btw. I hope management doesn't feel the same way. If Kendall wants to come back cheap, fine. He'll have to earn playing time. I'd rather Kendall doesn't come back for $5 million and use that money elsewhere. Rivera and Corporan have been my picks for awhile for next year and I'll stick with them. Rivera will have worked with most of the Brewers staff (I'm assuming Kendall will get more off days -- not a lot -- as the season goes on) and Corporan has worked with quite a few guys in the minors and the majors either in the regular season or spring training. I think Kendall will retire at the end of the year and that will make not bringing him back much easier. Sooner or later he'll realize he can't do much with the bat and call it quits -- my guess it's this off-season.

He doesn't even make my top 3 mishandling of players currently on the roster. Fielder sat at the major league level barely playing for half of his first year, he came up in June and got all of 62 PA spread over 39 games played. Hardy should have never started in the majors his rookie year and they left him there struggling forever before he finally got things going. Weeks should have been benched as soon as they knew his thumb was messed up because trying to compensate for an injury probably ruined his swing the next season. Gamel has started 7 of the last 9 games including todays start, that is hardly anything to be worried about. I don't know if those compare though. Prince wasn't going to get a ton better on defense. JJ played his entire rookie year and had the defense. I don't know if he should've been up, but it'd be somewhat the same if Escobar was called up and started in the bigs this year. I don't know if it's 100% the right move, but the defense was ready and the bat would come. Weeks is injury related. Gamel to me is strictly developmental as to why I think it's been handled so poorly. It seemed he was starting to click on defense in AAA and now doesn't know what day he will start. He's not going to improve on defense if he's not playing. I also think it's different because Prince, JJ, and Rickie all were going to start at their positions and be handed the everyday job. We still don't know how it will all pan out for Gamel and to me it's the single most important part of the future of the Brewers. If he doesn't stick at 3B, where does he go? Do the Brewers trade Hart or Fielder sooner than they would have? Do they trade Gamel? I think Gamel's future will indirectly impact the future of at least one other player and their future with the team. The picture isn't clearer when he's more or less being a role player. Give him the everyday job or send him to AAA. Again, I think Gamel will stick at 3B, but I can't say that 100% when the team isn't really giving him a place to show that everyday.

Macha is handling Gamel like many other managers handle young prospects. The same way LaPorta was handled, the same way Fowler has been. I haven't had a problem with it so far as long as Gamel starts half time or more it is fine. The situation with LaPorta is different though. To use the over used saying, 'he is what he is'. He barely can play the OF and looks to be at 1B or DH. That isn't going to change by playing everyday. Gamel is still developing his defense. You could say that's maybe the reason why he's not playing everyday...if that's the case he should be in AAA so that he can start everyday and improve. I have never been as disappointed with the Brewers and their handling of minor league prospects as I am with Gamel (at least for position players). If getting his feet wet means he never knows when he's going to play and there's not always reasoning behind it, he sure is getting his feet wet. Back to Hart, what is he worth right now in terms of a contract?

We would need to find a team with cap space to absorb the salary. We might be able to get Steve Blake, Sergio Rodriguez and #24 for Ridnour and #10. Blake's salary is completely unguaranteed and Rodriguez only makes a little over $1 million as well. Of course if Portland just waives Blake they could have a good amount of cap space so they would have to decide whether they want to make an offer to Sessions, so they might not do that. I understand your logic, but Blake doesn't want to be in Milwaukee to the point where he just flat out won't play up to his ability IMO. trwi7, what would you do this off-season? I know I don't always agree with your opinions, but you seem to have a good feel for the team. I personally (I know it's not my money) would re-sign CV and Sessions and use the #10 pick. I know that would put the Bucks most likely above the tax, but I feel if this team sticks together, stays healthy, and drafts a good player they could contend for the #4 - #6 pick. I know that's not a championship team, but I'd take it. I think this team has to try and win now in order to keep their fans. I know that goes against what you say trwi7, but hopefully the younger guys on the team continue to develop and as they do Redd can be re-signed at a cheaper rate or traded next off-season. I'd love to see this team add Ty Lawson especially if they can trade down a few slots. From day one, Lawson will be one of the fastest players in the league and could really push the tempo. I know this doesn't help the defense, but with Skiles as the coach, Luc being one of the better defenders in the league IMO, and Redd showing that he cared a bit more about defense this team might not be that bad. I do worry that they don't have a legit #4 and by that I mean a banger. CV isn't a bad player, but I don't see him in the mold the team will need. I think we're a bit thin in the rebound area as it stands today.

BB per 9 - 4.1 - tollerable I guess I'm not that encouraged by this number. I haven't seen him pitch, but I'd expect that number to get worse as he advances. Guys at lower levels usually don't have as good of an idea of the strike zone and thus swing at more. X, do you think he's turned the corner this year? It'd be great to have a prospect arm at a higher level. I know I will be checking in on him more often and hopefully his controls can be solid the rest of the year. I'm assuming he'll be sent down now?

Gamel has started 6 of the last 7 games before tonight. I understand wanting him to start but do not act like he has just been sitting on the bench most nights lately. Even if you take out the 3 starts against Min when he could DH Game started 3 of the last 4 he could so he is actually getting more time than Hall. 'Starting' as a DH isn't going to help him. Mat can hit. The fielding is what needs to be worked on. Start him everyday or you're wasting him on the bench. Braun's first 20 or so at-bats and Gamel's are somewhat similar. I'm not comparing the players, but I am saying if he's going to get better he should be playing everday unless he needs a day off for rest. Eventually the Brewers need to come up with some kind of plan instead of throwing darts at a board when it comes to 3B. You either give Gamel the job or put him at AAA.

I agree Counsel needs a platoon partner, and Escobar is hot in AAA, but so is Adam Heether. He would be the wiser call-up. However, eventually it will be Hall platooning with Counsel. Counsell does need a platoon partner and he also needs to be able to give JJ and whoever is at 3B some rest too at times. To me, that says he might not be able to play 2B a lot or we need a 'new' Counsell. I do agree with you on Heether (it's a special day if I actually agree with X http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif ). The Brewers just don't operate in that manner. Being a 'veteran' minor leaguer in the Brewers system now means you're likely to never get called up. I'm not saying that's the right way or wrong way. I just don't think the Brewers have Heether as a guy to move up...it'd be Escobar, the hurricane, etc. I still think (I'm probably in the minority I'm sure), but Heether would make for a pretty good Counsell type replacement next year. He can play pretty much anywhere and can hit a bit, but he's not going to be known for his hitting. I just hope that happens with the Brewers.

Counsell gets on base 35% of the time, more versus RHP. One look at Hall's production, especially versus RHP, makes him a near emergency only option at 2B. Escobar would probably hit nearly as well at 2B and be a stellar defender...Hall hasn't played 2B to speak of since '06, so his fielding would be average, maybe. Hall is not even playing 3B good enough to justify playing everyday, no way he can play 2B to that level after 3 years away. Hall isn't even an option at 2B. Why isn't he an option? Counsell can't play everyday. He's best playing one or two times a week and being a PH. He's old and playing with a bad knee. I just don't see him putting up a high OBP playing everyday. That leaves Casey at 2B. I'm not knocking Casey...I'm just saying there needs to be more options. If Hall is playing at 3B, he's clearly good enough in the Brewers eyes to play there...same should be the case at 2B. I'm not saying Hall is great. I am saying he it's either him at 2B, Escobar, or a trade long-term unless Casey becomes more of an everyday guy. That shouldn't be Counsell's role at this point in his career.

Another common misconception is that Ben Sheets was overpaid or didn't earn his contract. He was actually very underpaid. How many of the booing Brewer fans would admit that? This value is according to fangraphs. 2005 Salary 6 mil, Value 12.7 mil 2006 Salary 9.6 mil, Value 14.7 mil 2007 Salary 11.1, Value 9.4 2008 Salary 12.1, Value 20.6 I like some of the information from fangraphs, but not all of it. It's not clear cut. What is the loss in wins going from a #1 starter to a #6+ starter? In other words, if you plug in Sheets replacement and include that in his stats what does that tell us? I know that's not 100% fair, but teams don't sign players usually to play 1/4, 1/2, or 3/4 of a season at the amount of the 'value' from fangraphs. When Sheets was healthy, he was a very good pitcher and there's no doubt he earned his money. I just always felt that he was a risk because you're usually not going to get a 6 or 7 man rotation together. It's hard enough to get 5 quality starters and when Sheets went down you go from an ace to a poor starter. To me, that's a huge drop off.

Of course health is an issue, the guy had arm surgery, so I'm completely unsure who you're arguing with here. Sheets will cost a first round pick AND may not pitch all year, definitely not until after he doesn't cost a pick to sign AND is going to want a short contract to regain value, which all add up to him being unsigned. It goes back to those that have defended Sheets saying he's not injury prone and it was all luck. I don't see how Sheets isn't injury prone. Even with his injury now he would've been signed by some team. I get the feeling though that the contracts offered (and I have to believe there have been at least a few teams offering a contract knowing they'd give up a second round pick or later), but Sheets probably wants $15 million a year and teams are most likely offered much, much less than that. Why? Because IMO he's injury prone. He's not going to get a huge contract. My point is if it's not 'fair' to get upset about his injuries and he's not injury prone...is it all just bad luck? Conditioning doesn't play a factor at all? I guess I don't buy that. He's either injury prone for whatever reason or he doesn't take care of himself. IMO it's one of the two.

I gotcha. I guess I don't see that happening. Not that teams aren't strapped for cash, but given the economy and the cap situation I could see the NBA doing something to help this out. I also don't see a player taking a one year deal and waiting that is CV's age. It very well could happen, but it's not usually the norm. I've posted before that I don't think it's out of the question that they bring back both given the way the Bucks cap will turn over in the next few years. It'd make this year tight, but I hope they take on that risk. I know it's not all that likely, but we'll see I guess.

14 - 14 14 HR

If you had a situation for instance where Kendall caught half the games, and Rivera caught the other half within the same season, or couple of seasons, then I would say you could potentially get something meaningful from it. Beyond that though, I'm not sure how you could compare what Looper did throwing to Molina as a Cardinal last year, to what he is doing throwing to Kendall as a Brewer this year, for example. I guess the point there being, if a pitcher(s) say that having Kendall catching has helped, I am gonna put a lot more stock in that than anything the numbers might say. The data might be tricky, but I don't think it'd be all that difficult to compare pitchers Kendall has worked with when he was there and when he wasn't there. I still get the feeling despite what pitchers think about him that it doesn't make all that much of a difference. I would imagine it's more of a comfort thing than anything else. If it was a mjor difference, catchers like Kendall would be in very high demand.

For the record, I'm not saying Sheets was bad. He was a very good pitcher when on the mound. I never booed him and I think that is pretty weak, but I could understand why some (including myself) were frustrated with him. Now if he made say $5 million a year it probably would be different with the fan base...same probably could go for Suppan right now. The more money the more expectations the fans have. I really wish we could know the 'full story' between Sheets and the Brewers. My guess is that at the end of last year Sheets knew he was hurt towards the end and the Brewers knew it too...they just didn't know how severe it was.

If I understand correctly, the best offer Sessions & CV would realistically get from another team is a MLE, which was around $5.5m this year. So that would leave $3m for Illyasova, and that might be doable. This isn't directed at you and maybe someone can let me know...why? Is the economy that bad in the NBA? I've posted many, many times about this and I think if that's the case it might finally be true...but I don't think it's that bad. I do like these 'make believe' numbers to support opinions though. It's a joke to compare now to when Redd and RJ signed deals...can we agree with that? I've said before and I'll say it again of the three major sports the NBA will be crushed with the economy despite the NBA playoff tv ratings. What do you call those 3 guys? Looks like 3 young, talented guys at affordable numbers. Those 3 > Jefferson all day. Even if you think they are role players, at least they are young enough where they COULD improve. Sessions even COULD be a star, not saying he will be but at least you have that chance, you can't say that about Jefferson at this stage. Also, those smaller deals are easier to move down the road. We didn't sign RJ though. We dumped Simmons though. So it's really Simmons vs. RJ to being with. RJ > Simmons...all day. It shouldn't be and never be RJ vs. anyone else except Simmons since that was the trade. If you want to whine about him, whine about signing Simmons. RJ is a great player to have on the team compared to Bobby. I also think some of the contracts with CV and Simmons thrown out here are way low (if I know the cap right) or prove the economy is kicking the crap out of the NBA...which means the Bucks will be done in Milwaukee very soon. I still say within three years they're done unless a miracle happens.

Catcher ERA is a lot like clutch, it might exist but over the sample that is all of major league baseball it really is negligible for the most part. You have a few players who fall out of the normal range but the number of players who do are small enough that it could easily just be statistical noise and not anything significant. I guess I somewhat see what you're saying, but I'd have to think there would be some information that would say it is a huge deal or it's not in terms of who is catching. Maybe comparing pitchers to catchers and their ERA? I know the current staff on the Brewers hasn't been on the Brewers all that long, but how do they compare with other catchers? Guys like Suppan, Looper, maybe Bush, etc might be good choices to look at. I don't know how much impact it would be on bullpen guys. I do agree with you Ennder that it could be 'clutch' at some point...but if you take guys who have been around with a team for a year or two with the same catchers compared to others the guy has been with you might find something. With guys like Yo and Manny you're not going to find anything at this point IMO.

Yes, Sheets deserved all the crap he got from our well educated fans. Even before he had his string of injuries, he was one of the best starters in the league and many Brewer fans didn't even like him. He didn't "know how to win", after all. Then, when he starts getting injured, it's obviously because he doesn't have a 6 pack, like every other pitcher in the league. Oh come on. He sure knew how to 'get hurt'. I don't agree with the booing, but it's pretty easy to see why some teams were frustrated with him. Milwaukee hates Michael Redd because what he's paid and he's only been hurt twice. They hate Sheets big time because he's paid a ton and got hurt. That's the bottom line. Give him a 6 pack or 100 lbs more of weight. Whatever the reason he simply couldn't stay healthy. I'm happy we don't have all the threads defending Sheets health. If it was such a non-issue, he'd be signed by now. Teams don't want to give up picks for him because they know he's a liability. I've stated before the dude doesn't keep himself in shape and I stand by that. He's had enough injuries now that he either has no luck or he doesn't take care of himself. There is no other answer to that. rluzinski, you usually back your thoughts up with stats and such, but your point here isn't right. Fans loved him before his injuries. I was at his huge game against the Braves in '03. They loved him. He was the golden boy. A golden boy that gets hurt for whatever reason and strange reason and is one of the highest paid players on the team will be knocked by the fans. I don't think he should be booed, but no doubt there should be questions around him. We can all sit here and say 'well based on his innings and based on this he was worth his contract'...the problem is teams don't sign guys planning on them getting hurt. Going from an ace to a #6 pitcher takes more stats or logic than that...it goes from competing to sucking.

Unless a team scores 6+ runs a game, they idea bad offensive production at one position doesn't hurt them seems completely illogical to me. I agree. My question is though how does Kendall's pitchers ERA compare to other catchers. I know his offense is bad. His arm hasn't been as good as last year or his luck isn't as good as last year -- either way he's not as good last year throwing guys out. The only thing that would make sense in starting him is that his pitchers just flat out pitch better with him as a catcher...and I don't think that's the case.

I saw that article too naivin. How does Kendall compare to other catchers in terms of ERAs? I'm assuming this is more of a mental thing than it actually is a result thing.

Paying $14 million combined next year to Sessions, Villanueva and Ilyasova is better than paying that to Jefferson. Again, the Bucks will have to pay more than that to keep those guys unless other teams don't have cap room. Yea re-sign this guy and this guy...this is somewhat similar to the Redd situation. If money was level, Redd would've been gone. He'd be a Cav. The same will most likely go for Sessions and CV. I highly, highly doubt they'll sign in Milwaukee if another city is offering more money. The Bucks will have to pay more than most teams to keep those guys. A guy like Jefferson never comes to Milwaukee either unless he's traded. You're also forgetting that we did dump salary to get RJ. Simmons has another year on his contract...so that would mean the mistake was paying a guy more than he was worth to come to Milwaukee aka Bobby Simmons. I think there is a theme here. I'd rather have Joakim Noah, Brandan Wright or Rodney Stuckey over Yi (fully aware he's not with the Bucks anymore.) I think it's too early to tell on that one. Noah is not anything other than a role player and Wright was in the NBDL his rookie year. Stuckey was not a real option...no other team had him on their radar that high. You can take any draft and say 'hey how did Redd or Luc last that long? Those GMs are all dumb'. That's just no true though. Yi was taken where many experts had him (in that range or so). The Bucks made a mistake by taking a guy that didn't want to play in Milwaukee...again I think there is a theme here. I'd rather have Chris Paul or Deron Williams over Andrew Bogut. Not when you had Ford and Mo. Bogut was the right pick at the time. Was he the best player looking at it now? No, but if he develops and the Bucks have a big guy like him for years it will be hard to call it a bad pick. I would've rather had David West or Josh Howard over T.J. Ford. I disagree here. At the time, the Bucks needed a PG and Ford was pretty darn good until he had the neck injury. I wish we would've known he had kneck problems when we drafted him. Ford turned into CV. Can't really argue that pick either. I would rather have Tayshaun Prince or Carlos Boozer over Marcus Haislip. This was a terrible pick. But drafting busts isn't even the biggest problem for the Bucks. It's not having many 1st round picks. In the last 10 drafts, the Bucks have only had six 1st round picks. For a team that doesn't have free agency as an option you absolutely need to keep draft picks and then draft well with them. Not only do we not draft well when we have them, we also don't have very many of them. You are in a way making my point. Free agents don't want to come to Milwaukee unless they're signing minimum type deals. They don't. So you draft and trade. Sometimes you trade picks. I'm not saying every move was smart. There were some bad moves. I am saying that you either spend a lot of $$$ and have posts of people whining about an Olympian and all-star being paid too much or need to have great drafts and trades and then figure out when is the best time to trade a young player...or you pay him $$$ and have people whine about it.

I'm not taking DM's comments at full price, homer. If you choose to do so, that's your decision. Part of a GM's job is to quiet the rumor mill to keep trade value intact and that statement does just that. That kind of goes against your other post that he'd be up in the bigs to start at 2B soon. There's no reason for a GM to lie about that. If anything, that would improve his trade value. I personally think it's stupid for Escobar to be playing so much at 2B unless the Brewers are going to call hiim up. There's not a 'huge' difference between what the hurricane and what escobar offer with the bat right now. I think long-term Escobar will be a much better option and he's already a pretty good baserunner. As much as I don't like it, I'm beginning to wonder if in the future the Brewers will decide to trade/sign for a 2B or call up Escobar and start him there. The easy answer to me is to make Gamel the 3B and Hall the 2B and keep Escobar at SS in AAA for the rest of the year.

1. Look at at least 3 years of data and use that as your basis for what to expect. This is generally what you want to do if you have that much data. 2. Break down a shorter period of data if you think there is a really good reason part of the data is suspect. Can you put any weight into Corey's age or experience though? I'm not a stat guy so I'm not going to pretend to be one. I would just imagine though that given Corey's age and experience at this point he should be putting up numbers that most likely would be career highs or close to it if that makes sense. In other words, based on his struggles as of late (I know not a great sample of data) that makes me worry about it a bit more. If Corey was a rookie or second year player, I don't think many would be worrying about it. I just expected him to not make the same mistakes over and over again on certain pitches. Is that cause for worry?

Just looking at the final stat line over the past 150 games doesn't tell you the big picture though. Hart really struggled for 3 weeks of last season, until mid September he was hitting the ball just fine, does an absolutely anemic final 3 weeks offset the rest of the year when you are trying to decide the future of a player? He hit the ball fine this year until 2 weeks ago and thus you get into a bit of a data issue because everyone looks bad directly after a slump and good right after a hot streak. What will tell you the big picture though? That's an honest question. Aren't streaks part of baseball? I guess I'm just asking how do you value Hart. Yes, he's shown he can hit at times. I just think when he's off he's way off if that makes any sense. His approach becomes a huge problem and I don't know if that's best for the future of the Brewers. If a guy has a good approach most of the time, he'll be able to offset cold streaks by hitting the right pitches and walking. In other words, he'll be patient enough to get on base one way or another. Hart doesn't seem to have that IMO. What is the right amount of games or time to judge a player? I know you can't take hot streaks out, but you can't take cold streaks out either. Weeks is a great example of a guy that's looked like a stud or a dud multiple times. Hart might be in the same boat.

That would be great if a team knows when a player is going to play well or not but it doesn't work that way. I could see Hart starting to lose some AB against righties or get a day or two off but that's about it right now. If he hasn't played all that well the last year, that might be an indication. It's 150 games and not at-bats. I guess I don't know what you would use as a good sample or good indicator, but I think it is fair to go back the last 150+ games or so and look at what he's done. I don't think I would call Hart 'good'. I think he's average and at times he can be good, but at other times he can be below average. I'm not a stat guy, but I wonder if there's any way to compare the streaks some hitters on this team (Hardy, Hart, Cam, etc) go on with other players. It seems they're either hot or cold to a large gap, but that could just be 'normal' I guess.

Agreed with sbrylski06 and triwi7. He needs to play everyday. Having him on the bench is going to mess with his swing IMO. Being a PH is difficult even for veterans let alone a young guy that is still getting adjusted to MLB pitching (see Nelson, Brad). As far as Esocbar, I think he'll be a pretty good player, but you have to think about the lineup change with Hardy vs. Escobar. Given that the Brewers THIS year have Kendall, 2B, Hart, etc I think putting Escobar in for Hardy would hurt the offense. He has a lot of room to grow and gain more strength. Hardy IMO has the clear advantage right now in terms of power and offense. Now next year if Weeks is back, RF, and C have better talent Escobar might be a good fit. I honestly would give him all year in AAA. A decision will have to be made sooner or later though.