TheCrew07

Is that really what caused his abrupt dismissal? Any details? In hindsight, I think he would have been a good option.There was an article written by a female reporter that painted him to be a playa looking to pick up chicks even at the ballpark, I have no idea how true it all was, but I always liked how coached the game. He moved people around and forced them to learn the game and learn other positions. I was always pretty high on Kremblas.

No one forgot anything, neither of those of those guys were/are top of the rotation arms. Dave Bush through the minors projected to be 4/5, his K and BB rates were very average and he just doesn't have the power stuff to be a great pitcher, but he gets a ton of mileage out of his intangibles. I realize that Gross, Jackson, and Bush were all high draft picks, but that doesn't mean they had high ceilings as players, they were "get to the majors quick" kind of players. I'm fine with having those guys sprinkled through the draft to give some balance to the prospects in the system, but I'd be livid if the Brewers were drafting that kind of talent early in drafts. Cappy had better breaking stuff, similar FB to Bush, but being a LHP he projected somewhere in that #3 range. Cappy excels with the mental part of the game, he's always seemed to be ahead of the hitters, he wasn't blowing people away as he is the typical finesse lefty. He always had a nice K rate but a high BB rate, and I'm down with any pitcher who has a K rate over 7. However good he was in 2006 certainly didn't excuse what happened to him in 2007. If you look at Capuano's career peripherals, 2006 is certainly the outlier, he just didn't walk anyone that season for whatever reason. Maybe it's just as simple as he was peaking at 27 years old. In 2006 the rotation was Sheets and a bunch of pitchability guys, in 2010 the rotation is Gallardo and a bunch of pitchability guys, I don't see the difference at all. Outside of acquiring Sabathia after Yo went down in 2008 the starting rotation has been essentially the same setup since 2004, with varying degrees of success from the pitchability guys. If Melvin trades Fielder for a couple more pitchability guys I'm driving down to MP, beating my way through security in a blind range, and punching him square in the eye. That is all.

Then a scouting report will do... *wink*

I know where you're going, I'm just not sure you can get there, nor am I aware of a metric that takes into account batted ball data. No matter how pitching is evaluated and what rates are factored into a metric you're still going to end up having to explain my least favorite concept in modern sabermetrics, luck. I firmly believe players and teams make their own luck, most events which are attributed to luck in baseball aren't luck at all, but rather a complex system of variables which is incredibly difficult to quantify yielding a result that appears to be random on the surface. I'll use Manny Parra as an example, other than his BB rate just about every metric you'll find says he should be a better pitcher than he is, so he gets labeled as unlucky. However when you watch the games his mistakes tend to get hit very hard, on the ground or otherwise. I think he's predictable in that hitters believe he'll fall behind in the count so they wait for a FB that they can handle and then make solid contact with the pitch. How do you account for that mental chess game between pitcher and batter in a metric? I'm sure someone will spend the time to figure out a way to incorporate pitch f/x data into a metric which would be better than what's out there now, but then we're still losing the context of the situation and the intended vs the actual location. There's such a fine line between being good in an outing and being bad (6-10) pitches, that it's very difficult to find a smoking gun anywhere good or bad, in the end it's just easiest to measure the result.

I think this all goes back to the idea that the rotation would be better "on paper" than it was last year. I have no doubt that ultimately Wolf is a better pitcher than Looper, but somehow the team managed to win 14 of the games Looper started because the offense picked him up. I think many people got caught up in trying to evaluate the individual pitchers, when ultimately the wins are all that matters. Looper stunk no doubt, but for the team's record to be better from that spot in the rotation the team will have to win more than 14 of Wolf's starts. The same is true of every other spot in the rotation... Gallardo, Bush, and so on right down the line. The tough part about this is that a better performance than last year from each spot won't necessarily equal more wins because a pitcher is still dependent on the defense, offense, and bullpen to win the game. Last year I believe the starters were truly the problem, this year every pitcher on the staff is taking turns pitching the team out of wins. When a starter pitches well enough to win, the bullpen finds a way to blow it. The starters do bear some responsibility for not being able to ever finish what they start, or even get close to finishing, but I think that concept should be obvious enough Thus far the pitching as a whole has been absolutely putrid, I'm not sure it can possibly be this bad all season, but even if it isn't they've dug themselves an awfully deep hole. I truly hope that people who were in favor of all these signings might step back and reevaluate what Melvin's approach to team building, not just with the pitching situation, but in general. If nothing else, specifically in regards to the value we've gotten back for the money that has been spent. Spending more money isn't the answer and never has been, spending money efficiently should be the answer. edit. Note that in the first paragraph I'm not saying we should evaluate pitchers by wins, I'm saying ultimately the team is evaluated by wins and losses, so for the team to win more games we would need more wins from each slot in the rotation to win more games than last season. How the team wins the game doesn't matter (good start, bad start, whatever), just that they net more wins than the previous season.

I'm gaining respect for Wolf, he's accountable.

I know exactly what you mean, though it's been 2 years worth of it for me. Genuinely fearing for the worst but hoping for the best isn't a fun way to follow your favorite team, which is why I've spent most of my time rooting on the prospects since the middle of last season. It's much easier to be upbeat and positive on the minor league forum for me personally. I think this team can put together an extended winning streak, but watching these games is hard. I find myself flipping the game off if we have a lead going into the 6th inning because I'm tired of being pissed off about pitch counts with young pitchers, pitching implosions, and all of the rest. I don't have a problem with Wolf pitching 120 pitches when he's cruising, but he was clearly done after the 6th, and I'm glad I turned off the game in the 7th. At least Axford is easy to root for. edit. Pitching implosions, not impositions, lame spell check.and crappy typing

Ya more bad luck... I guess this Brewers team is the most snake bitten team in the history of baseball...

I wonder if Cain gets called up when Gerut leaves to be with his wife? I guess they still have Stern, but the bench would be awfully short for a game or 2.

Sacrifice bunting in the 1st inning is not "fine." I think you missed the sarcasm in his post...

I was thinking that as well but then it occurred to me that I've listened to him pitch 5 times or so now (the only time my audio choice changes is typically when Rivas pitches), and even when he's in trouble, I'm not concerned about him getting out of the inning. Then it occurred to me that maybe that's just the way Mehring and Wendt call the game when Bucci is on the mound. What I mean to suggest is because they don't seem overly concerned, I don't get anxious for him, then again maybe it's just the nickname. He doesn't give up many hits, only 17 so far in 32.2 IP, but 21 BBs is an avalanche of walks in such a short period of time. In fact he has exactly as many BBs already this season as he had last season with Helena in 69.1 IP.

Periard's K rate of 3.66 coming into today's action was by far the lowest of any starter in the entire organization. Chase Wright is the next worst at 4.38, and Dave Bush is 3rd worst at 4.70. In case you were wondering Odorizzi has the best rate at 12.39, Yo is next at 10.36, Scarpetta is 3rd at 9.64, Fiers 4th at 9.41, and Cappy is 5th at 9.21 to round out the starting pitchers who have K'd better than a batter per inning.

So, lose 100 games 10 years in a row then make the playoffs once and completely fall apart the next year?Isn't that exactly what the Brewers did? And that's different from what the Brewers did how? Because we were drafting low through 90s and early 2000s? Except that they won 97 games, 84 games, and are on pace to win 90 games again... with pitching.

I think the point here that can't be emphasized enough is what poor value relievers are, even when effective they pitch too few innings to warrant near double digit or double digit million salaries for a season. When you factor age into the equation, the risk is even greater. I felt bad calling Hoffman and Hawkins "oldies" in the off season, and I let one of those slip in regard to Hawkins earlier this season, but I'm incredibly frustrated with Melvin and his band aid approach to roster management with the pitching. I'm tired of spending money in the least best possible way which is the bullpen, and I'm tired of wasting money in the next worst way spending it on average starting pitchers in their Mid 30s with obviously declining skills. I would much rather our highest paid players were our core youth, than has been types from the FA market. This same pattern keeps repeating itself and each time around I get progressively more pissed off at Melvin and inevitably I vent in the direction of the players as well. It's a recipe to be averagish forever. Teams can out perform their hitting, but they don't out perform their pitching. Shouldn't the Brewers having a payroll near the team record to be below .500 for 2 seasons be evidence enough of how poorly the money has been spent? Personally speaking I didn't want Hoffman prior to 2009 and I certainly didn't want to give a raise in base salary to a 42 year old relief pitcher for 2010. It's not that people who shared a similar opinion to myself were looking into the future and predicting failure, it had much more to do with the way the whole thing went down and the poor value relievers are in general. Is Hoffman done? That very well could be the case, he's in uncharted territory results wise, once again fastball velocity is not a smoking gun in any way. Velocity differentials are more important, but more importantly any pitcher's most important advantage is that he gets to dictate pitch type and location. If he's giving that advantage away by becoming predictable, he's going to get hit and get hit hard. It's very difficult to get a away with a mistake in location when the hitter is looking for that pitch type. The number I heard thrown around relative to velocity separation was 13 MPH, Trevor hasn't had that since the data became available so I don't think you'll find a smoking gun there either. It looks to me like hitters are just sitting FB on him now and for whatever reason are able to distinguish the CU and are get wood on it instead of swinging through it like in the past, he could be tipping his pitches, it could be his release point is different, it could be many things... but trying using his FB velocity and results last as an indicator of future success seems incredibly dismissive of what's actually happening in the field of play. He's given up 19 ER prior to June, he hasn't given up more than 24 runs in any single season since he was rookie and gave up 39 in 90 IP. What are the odds that he only gives up 5 more earned runs this season? He's already given up 8 more runs than he did all of last season.

Ya that's not a gross over exaggeration or anything... what comes next? A sarcastic post about how too many people whine about a soft tossing control pitcher working over the crew? That's only been in every other game thread all year... See, I can cleverly make over exaggerations too! There were plenty of people that didn't want Davis signed, a few that didn't want Hoffman resigned or Hawkins signed, but now everyone is unnecessarily piling on... right.

They are getting nothing out of 1B. If they think Fielder for the rest of this season and next season gives them better chance of winning and a legit shot they could certainly move prospects for Fielder. I wouldn't do it, but I wouldn't have traded for Sabathia either and we did. They are having some financial issues but with expiring contracts and all of the young pitching in upper part of their system they could certainly resign Fielder as well as they won't have to spend money on pitching.

I didn't want to jinx it because Rivas pitched so well and I wanted him to get a win, but Kintzler has only given up 1R all year, and he still hasn't given up an ER in 15.2 IP. I would have never guessed he'd be so good in relief (small sample) after what he did as a starter last season.

Nope Kintzler is in to close it out, nice game Amaury though he labored a bit late in the game. Don't look now but Howell has been pretty good since May 1st, if Arnett will turn it around the WI staff is suddenly really tough.

I've made good on my promise and I'm only listening to the Rattler pregame show this week. Rivas has been struggling a bit since the 6th, but he's only at 86 pitches through 8. With the Stars up 2-1 does Rivas come out for the complete game or does the bullpen close it out? By the way, Rivas balked in the only run against him.

As much as I like Rivas as pitcher, he hits like garbage. I hesitate to say this, but it sounds from listening to my 4th game now like he's Sheetsesque with the bat.

Chris just mentioned this promotion the T-Rats are running on the broadcast. I voted for Scooter vs the Snowmam. 2010 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers Fans' Choice Bobblehead Help the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers pick who should be immortalized as a bobblehead. The winning selection will be given away on Thursday, September 2nd at Time Warner Cable Field. Voting will run through the end of the Midwest League All Star Break. Candidates: Eric Arnett - P - 2010 The Brewers 1st round draft pick in 2009 out of Indiana, Arnett is currently a member of the Timber Rattlers. Adam Jones - SS - 2004 Seattle's top pick in 2003, Jones hit .267 with 23 doubles, 7 triples, 11 home runs, and 72 RBI for the Timber Rattlers in 2004. The Baltimore Orioles' center fielder was named an American League All Star for the first time in 2009. Cameron Garfield - C - 2010 A second round selection by the Brewers in 2009, Garfield is the starting catcher for the Timber Rattlers. Charlie Capper The Timber Rattlers main scoreboard operator since Fox Cities Stadium opened in 1995, Charlie started running the scoreboard for Foxes games in 1987 at Goodland Field. Combined, he has work well over 1,000 games for the Foxes and Timber Rattlers. The Press Box at Time Warner Cable Field was named in honor of Charlie in 2008. Kyle Heckathorn - P - 2010 A supplemental first round choice by Milwaukee in 2009 out of Kennesaw State, Heckathorn is a current member of the Timber Rattlers. Felix Hernandez - P - 2003 Hernandez was just 17 years old when he made his Timber Rattlers debut near the end of the 2003 season. King Felix reached the Majors by age 19 and was an All Star at 23. Scooter vs. the Snowman After a snow storm dumped 5 inches of snow on Time Warner Cable Field on Opening Day 2010, the Timber Rattlers players made a snowman in the outfield. After the players had their fun dressing it up, Scooter Gennett took a swing and destroyed the head of the snowman In an incident made famous by a . Jake Odorizzi - P - 2010 The current Rattlers pitcher was a supplemental 1st round draft pick by the Brewers in 2008.

It's so much the bullpen, as the distribution of IP. In a blowout, and there have been plenty, why throw 4 guys? Why not just 1 reliever? We've had at least 2 former SP in the pen all season that could give us 4 IP in a pinch. Is it really necessary to warm up and pitch 3 or 4 relievers in blowouts? Even in a close game if a reliever breezes through his inning and his spot doesn't come up to hit, why not run him another inning? Dhonks has been beating that drum pretty loudly and I think he has a point, Yost would let Villy pitch 4 innings on occasion, even in a close game. It was a move necessitated by his defined bullpen roles, he'd run himself out of relievers pitching the same guys so many consecutive games which drove me friggen nuts, but I will give him limited credit for addressing the effect even he would never address the root cause. A move like that can save the pen as much as a starter going the distance. Macha finally ran a reliever out today, but I think that was more the intended design with Parra starting than him reacting to the situation in the game.

But they knew going into the trade that Lee was 100% committed to hitting FA (that was the reason Philly was looking to move him). It was a move done exclusively with contending in mind, and iirc the thinking from the Mariners was that the three prospects they gave up for him were roughly equal to the two likely comp picks they'll get for him walking. I don't disagree that, based on some pundits' picks, you can call the year disappointing so far. I just don't think the move was a waste of prospects, as Z seemed to have a plan heading into it. I said in the GM thread I wasn't impressed with what Jack Z had done in Seattle this off season. Name players don't mean much to me, ultimate value means something. Z seems to be like Melvin in that he prefers veteran pitching and given he built our farm system largely on his acumen at identifying hitters, I'm not sold that Seattle won't ultimately suffer the same pitching fate that Milwaukee has. I've said as much before, but I just think he's been vastly overrated by many analysts. The one thing he has that Melvin doesn't is that he'll be able to compete for impact talent in FA if they want to. The deal that's eating away at me is the Morrow for League trade. I admit I really like Brandon Morrow as a project, his K rate is very good, if someone could figure out a way to get him to quit walking people he'll be an absolute stud. I just can't see trading that kind of upside for a reliever... ever. League is a good pitcher, but he's a reliever, and I firmly believe in building a team from the rotation up. Morrow's season reminds me a little of Champan's in AAA, he's had 2 horrible starts, 1 bad start, and 5 good starts, most his games are on the extremes.. There's still hope for him. I guess Chavez is a nice prospect, but I just disliked this deal from the start. I'd prefer a younger GM who is aggressive, would marry up scouting and sabermetrics, and would make building and maintaining the rotation a priority. Where do we find such a perfect candidate? I don't think it matters much, my gut feeling is that Mark A wouldn't be into such a guy, something tells me he'd want a "baseball guy" to run the show. Who knows though, maybe if he fires Melvin he'll surprise me and hire a Friedman clone.

You should be looking at the draft history prior to Jack Z, comparing apples to apples as Melvin didn't hire Z, he retained his services as scouting director. It's also been proven many times that Melvin does not make selections on draft day. Z didn't get enough pitching into the system, Melvin didn't correct the issue, that's where all of these problems stem from.

When have I ever limited my pitching analysis to ERA? Look on the minor league forum, you can count on one hand the ERA references I've made, and they are all in the context of League Leader Board posts. Davis has stunk, the games haven't been close. Blame it on defense, blame it on bad luck, blame it on the small sample, I really don't care because he's been bad in my opinion. Pitching metrics are also pretty worthless in my opinion, there's no context and pitching is all about context. We argued this about Parra getting hammered when he makes hitter's pitchers, but that was bad luck too. I get it, you're into sabermetrics based on average rates to judge pitching. I'm into PITCHf/x, and more importantly location, intended vs actual. The worst thing fangraphs did was post average velocity because now that's the first thing people to point to.. "his fastball velocity hasn't declined, he'll be fine". Pitching just isn't that simple. Davis outpitched his peripherals forever, it shouldn't be surprising that it's finally caught up to him for an extended amount of time. Advanced metrics like his K rate, but the distribution of those BBs and Ks around the Hits will make all the difference in his end result, and no the distribution isn't a random event or random luck either way. Either you make your pitches or you don't, there are not many hitters that get hits on a pitcher's pitch, we're fortunate to have a guy like Braun who does have that ability on our team. All of these points about Davis have already been discussed at length and beat to death in other threads. The question was simple. When does a bad start actually become a bad season? My answer would be once we pass the point the player doesn't have the ability to recover his stat line to career norms for the season. Your answer was predictably evasive and equally pointless because for whatever reason you refuse to acknowledge that small sample analysis can have value. I ask a question in the context of a single season, you reply with years, then attack ERA like I care, completely ignoring the original premise. So I guess we need to limit our discussion to players in their prime with a 3 year set of data for the conversation to have any merit? All a 3 year data set helps you do is establish a career trend, to my knowledge no one can accurately predict when or how far a given player's production will fall off, but it will happen to every player eventually. I'm done with this conversation to nowhere.