Exactly Rluz, so then how you can definitively say what Sheets is worth? Because Fangraphs and/or Tango says so it must be true? Just looking at it very quickly a player's true value is roughly 50-60% of their max value in their career. In the past you've made the argument that Sheets earned his money because he pitched X IP of Y ERA making him exactly worth his contract based on what FanGraphs said his performance was worth. I just don't see how it's possibly that nice and tidy. Coming off of his previous seasons when he signed his contract it's probably a safe guess that both the Sheets' camp and the Brewers were expecting an average IP pitched above the 150.66 IP he averaged over the course of his contract. In that context he absolutely got paid more than he deserved.. The perspective here is totally dependent on the context in which someone chooses to frame their point of view. Contracts aren't based on only 160 IP, it wouldn't be fair to the player if they were, I'm curious if there is a standard IP that contracts are based on or if it's all just based on "gut" feel. The point is, if a contract is signed for 12 million, and the pitcher only pitches until the end of the June due to injury, fans are going to be upset about the dead 6 million, but usually forgiving the first 1 or 2 times. Once a player has a track record, regardless of the severity, the fans are going to be on his case. I don't really feel strongly either way on that, I'm truly indifferent, mostly I'll just caution that using FanGraphs dollar value is a slippery slope when evaluating someone's contract. Did Sheets earn his money in 2008? Absolutely. If he would have been hurt early in the season, he would have already had surgery, maybe would be back on the mound, and the Brewers might have a comp pick coming... either way he wasn't going to be available for the playoffs. I'm not sure what the backwards logic about being able to pitch in the playoffs proves, when it wasn't even a possibility given his injury. If you want to make a hypothetical argument about a minor injury at the start of the season then it's unfair to dismiss someone else's hypothetical argument, how can one be more valid than the other? When a player signs the big contract for a team, he's perceived as "the guy". Predictably every Sheets injury coincided with Brewer woes on the field... It's tough to win games without your best player. When "the guy" on the most popular professional team in the state is somehow always ready to go we tend to carry that expectation to the other teams and players we root for. I think that's the unfortunate side of the story with Sheets, but in the end he was injury prone, not to an extreme like Pavano who never pitched, but he missed significant time 4 straight seasons and missed the single most important series for many fans on the site which was the playoff series against the Phillies. What makes a mathematical representation of value more valid than a perceived notion of value? Especially considering the sliding economic scale in MLB? A players value to one team is different than if that player was playing for another team in the league... there's no direct correlation based solely on a players performance as teams like Milwaukee are looking for or should be looking for production from players who aren't eligible for Free Agency, which changes the economy of scale greatly. This is we ended up with a pitcher like Suppan who's making the most money on the team, but he's in the bottom 3rd of the 25 man roster talent wise. The Brewers need to be paying their best players the most amount of money. If I were a GM I'd be using both... I'd try to come up with a mathematical base that would be based on the current FA market, then adjust for the more intangible aspects like injuries and home team discounts to come up with a best guess at a particular contract.