TheCrew07

Nice way to completely innaccurately paraphrase my positions on the matters at hand. There isn't one true statement in that post. I stand by my opinion that Sabermetrics isn't science, that's complex mathematical analysis, and the 2 things are not the same. Plugging numbers into equations (that there is no mathematical proof for, only hypothesis) doesn't constitute science in my opinion. I said that I find Sabermetrics useful. I said I've taken the time to be well read on Sabermetrics, I've found some of it very interesting. I said that I utilize Sabermetrics as part of my view of a player, it's just not my entire view. I said that my problem with Sabermetrics is the presentation, that a certain metric is a fact. Player A has a higher VORP than player B so it's a fact he's a better player... that doesn't work for me personally, I think there's more to it than that. I said if a certain metric defines someone's view of a player, then I think they have a narrow view of sports and baseball. A player's value to his team is not defined by his stats alone. I said Sabermetrics are projections based on historical fact, but are not facts in themselves. I said Sabermetrics cannot accurately predict the outcome of a given AB in today's game, nor the outcome of the game itself. I said if Sabermetrics helps draw someone to baseball I'm all for it. Anything that helps keep people interested in baseball is a good thing. I said Bush may regress to his statistical mean, or he may not. I used TBow as an example. In no way did I intend to get drawn into another circular debate about Sabermetrics where you have no real interest in what I say. In fact, I was giving my opinion about the proper time to pull a plug on player, and that we the fan's generally are not armed with all of the information available. You've been blasting away from the start, "blinkered view", "your biggest problem", "welcome to sabermetrics"... I let the first one go as in the past I had respected your opinion. However your recent comments have made your air of superiority pretty clear to me. Like I said, If you're going to paraphrase me, at least make your accounts accurate.

BC wins in the bottom of the 9th!

Helena closes the gap to 1 after 5, tough 4th for the kid from Missoula, lots of walks and wild pitches. BC still down 8-6 in the 6th. The gamelogs of the 4th and 5th are particularly disturbing.

geez, Winn has 3 HRs off Vargas. Be a stud CV the elder, I won't be able to catch the games.

I was disappointed to see Mercedes starting opening day in Helena and he gave up a crooked number in the 2nd. I was hoping for Seidel or one of the DFEs maybe... someone I haven't seen a line on yet this year. BC's pitching has been less than stellar early as well. The good news is that BC is only down a couple in the 5th, and lots of time for the Helena crew to come back.

Nice win tonight.

I never said it was random. The outcome of a game is decided on a precise sequence of events. Take last night, either Coco gets the 3-2 pitch over and someone makes a play, or he doesn't and the Crew has to rally to win. If sabermetrics had anything to do with the outcome of a single at bat or single game then you'd always be able to accurately predict the final score based upon the opposing offenses vs the pitching. You could maybe be less condescending but you'd have to come down from that lofty statistical perch to reality, you know, where the players on the field decide the outcome by actually playing the game. Maybe you should call up Ned and tell him it doesn't matter who pitches and what stuff they have that day, the crew is going to win or lose a set percentage of games so they don't have to try hard that day... I really don't care what you have to say on the subject, you obviously are not reading what I'm posting, nor are you open to an alternative point of view. I don't care that you disagree, but at least be accurate when you're pointing out my flaws.

Weeks can look so bad 1 at bat, then look like an absolute stud the next. His last SO AB was horrid, he kept swinging and fouling off the same high and inside pitch time after time and finally K'd on it.

Yea I'm not sure why they fail on their side more, but I've read that a variety of different places now. Every commercial shows them on their side, you'd think they'd make a press release and own up to it, but that's not Microsoft's style.

Sheets missed up with everything in the AB against Bonds.

Yea I was just thinking case in point why young pitchers struggle... Lincecum is getting worse instead of better. I actually find myself rooting for him to throw a strike.

Wow, I wasn't expecting a hit and 2 walks in our first 3 batters. edit. Geez, 3-0, and a grooved fastball.

My bad TC, you're correct on the name.

Thanks for pointing out my biggest flaw. That "noise" you speak of is exactly what wins games in the small sample that is a single game.

The easiest program to use is Microsoft Movie Maker. I use much more complicated programs to make the DVD highlight films, but I still capture all of the video using Movie Maker. I use a Canopus device to loop my VCRs to my computer, most Digital Recorders have a firewire or USB port on them now and can hook right up to the computer. I haven't looked at my DVR, it may or may not have a USB output on it. My hunch is that I would just need the appropriate RCA cables to loop my DVR the same way I do the VCR. Basically it's no different than hooking up 2 VCRs together or looping all of your electronics through a component system, so if you can handle that you can handle this. Canopus site below. www.canopus.com/products/...tsmain.php There are also certain video cards that allow you to watch TV on your computer, they should work the same way. I'm unsure if you can capture the input off of those as I've never tried, but the theory is sound. Below is a good FAQ on the process for you. www.digitalfaq.com/dvdgui.../intro.htm

Do you have it sitting on it's side, or flat on the ground, and are the vents covered up by things like games and such? Many of my friends that have had problems are heat related. Apparently if you put them up on their side they tend to overheat more. If you overheat it, chances are it's never going to function properly again. I have an open concept TV stand, so my xbox is well ventilated and I've never had any problems. The smaller the space the more problems, remember it's just a computer in a very small package, so the same rules apply to it. If you left it on for 24 hours straight, you might want to leave it off for a couple of hours, change the environment around it, and try again.

I never claimed High School football was MLB, in fact I never claimed I was even a good coach, as I think I have many faults. My point was that we have no idea what goes on in the clubhouse, or in the dugout, or behind closed doors. If your opinion is that a player's state of mind doesn't affect his performance, then we really have nothing to discuss. So many times managerial decisions are questioned, and in many cases we don't have all the facts. Remember that Cubs game where people we were near rioting in the in-game thread because Hart didn't pitch hit? Many people including yourself were wrong about that, and to your credit you pointed out the next day that your assumptions were incorrect. Many people instantly look at splits, past production, and the manager is instantly wrong because a certain metric says a certain thing and he does the opposite. Endaround said I had a "blinkered" view of science... that's his opinion which he's entitled to. I think people that use metrics to define players have a "blinkered" view of sports and more to the point at hand, Baseball. Baseball lends itself to mathematical analysists based on the huge samples, but it's no less complex than the other sports. The coin flip analogy is used quite a bit, but how often it comes heads and tails is determined by any number factors; which side started up, position on the thumb, how high it's flipped, how many rotations it makes, the rotation direction, if it's caught or not and so on. If that's translated to baseball and the probability of a hit is vastly more complex. After studying me you could predict how many times the coin would come up heads, but what does it have to do with the outcome of my next flip? What does that have to with a batter's next AB or a pitcher's next outing? In sports confidence and state of mind matter more than anything else, and that's what the metrics can't measure. They can measure the outcome, but to my knowledge no one has found a way to predict which players will make the most out of their ability. If they could, then the drafts would be pretty anticlimatic, you could just measure the talent and that team would win the championship. Rarely will I ever publicly question a manager's decision, over time I've learned that it's nothing something I'm comfortable doing. Any game looks simple when you're watching from your couch, it's not so easy when you're down there and every coach and player share a different opinion on what should be done. Historical performance should be considered, but there are also many other factors to consider. Again, people do not need to defend Sabermetric principles to me, in most cases the theory is sound, and I find many of the metrics useful. In fact, I use similar principles for rating my defensive lineman play by play. They help tell a story, but they are not the entire story. Bush may or may not regress to his averages, but until the end of the season, do we really know for sure? Again, my problem is that people use a metric a say he should regress to the mean. Just because the law of averages says he should, doesn't mean he will. The same people said the same things about TBow last year, and just kept getting worse. I have confidence in Bush, I like his attitude on the mound, I like how he pitches, but if he doesn't start getting some sustained success, I have no problem with Yost making a change. Again I have no problem with sabemetrics, just the presentation, they are probable outcomes based on 162 games, not facts about the current game.

The average talent of a player given his past performance, but Geno is arguing the same point I made last week. All the projection systems in the world just guess at someone's future production. They have nothing to do with how well someone will play today, tomorrow, or in the future. The historical relevance gives weight to the projection, but doesn't make it fact. Bush might very well regress down to his historical mean, this could be the start of his decline, or it just might be the worst year in an otherwise above average career. Geno's point, which was never really rebuttled, is how long does a manager ride an underperforming pony? The truth is there is no one answer for that question, becuase it's different for every player. Look at hitters, a good hitter fails 7 out of 10 times to get on base. Now, because 30% is a very good average a player can be horrible for April - August, yet he can have a really solid month and make his average stats appear better than his play actually was. It's not like taking a percentage from 20% to 80%, we're talking about raising an average 10 percentage points. Pitching is the exact opposite, if a reliever has one bad outing it can take months of appearances to get it back down. I've yet to see anyone quantify why a pitcher has good stuff one day and bad stuff the next. Again, games are won and last in the now, where small sample size matters. It doesn't matter what you did yesterday, last week, last month, last year, it only matters what you're going to do right now. All the manager has to go on is what his gut tells him, and what he sees in the body language of the player. This is why I call the defense from the field in football, because I can look into the young man's eyes before I put him in the game. I don't find the notion that Bush struggles from the stretch that far off, because Villy made similar comments about himself early in the year. He said something to the effect that pitching from the BP has made him a better pitcher because he's now comfortable pitching from the stretch, where as he hadn't been in the past. I'm not for pulling Bush from the rotation, not yet. However, at this point in time would I want him pitching in the playoff rotation? Probably not. I'm pretty indifferent at this point in time. However, if he keeps performing the way he has most of the season, something will need to be done. In the same way that the 3rd base platoon was hurting the offense, the pitching staff should be as strong as possible, both starting pitching and in the bullpen, for the playoff push if it comes.

This was the funniest thing I've seen in a while, classic.

By the way, the dude who played J. Peterman from Seinfeld John O'Henry is the headliner for the Monty Python's Spamalot show at the Wynn in Vegas. I loved it, and highly recommend it if you find yourself in the neighborhood and are a Holy Grail fan.

I'm interested in watching Lincecum pitch, lets light up the rookie.

Surprisingly, Yost said he has a 110 pitch limit in mind for Yo. Well I shouldn't say surprisingly, as I had no idea what he would say, but I would have thought they'd be ultra conservative.

I hate these ABs with all the foul balls.

BALLGAME!!!!

Is it wrong I don't even want to watch? edit. Please, 1 more out!