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The Next Wave of Brewer Extensions - Who would you pick?

CheezWizHed

Entry posted by CheezWizHed in MLB Finances and Contracts ·

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We all know that the Brewers are not going to spend money like LAD, NYY, or even the sCrubs. With a limited budget, they need to be judicious about who they extend, for how much, and for how long so they can remain competitive for the long term. But that doesn't mean we can't do the right extensions... and often it has worked out very well for the Brewers.

Looking at historic extensions since 2009 (Note that I'm including extensions only and not FA contracts):

  • Ryan Braun
    • 2009 - Buyout of Arbitration and a few years of FA. 7 years, $55.5M
    • 2016 - Second Extension: 5 years, $89.3M
  • Corey Hart
    • 2010: Final year of arbitration plus 2 years of FA: 3 years, $26.5M
  • Yovani Gallardo
    • 2010 – Arbitration plus 1 (or two) years of FA: 5 years, $30.1M with 1 club option ($42.5M total)
  • Rickie Weeks
    • 2011: Final year of arbitration plus 4 years of FA: 5 years, $50M
  • Jonathan Lucroy
    • 2012: Arbitration plus a club option for 1 year FA: 5 years, $11M with 1 club option ($16.25M total)
  • Carlos Gomez
    • 2013 – All arbitration years: 4 years, $28.3M
  • Christian Yelich
    • 2015: All arbitration and 3 years of FA: 7 years $49.6M (with the Marlins)
    • 2020: Second Extension – 9 years $215M
  • Freddie Peralta
    • 2020: All arbitration (plus club option for 2 years of FA) - 5 years, $15.5M plus 2 club option years ($30M total)
  • Aaron Ashby
    • 2022: All arbitration (plus club option for 2 years FA) - 5 years, 20.5M with 2 club option years ($42.5M total)
  • Jackson Chourio
    • 2024: All arbitration plus 2 (or 4) years of FA – 8 years $82M with 2 club option years ($142.5M total)

*Note: Contract details come from internet searches and might not be perfect on exact dollar amounts given conflicting articles.  But the timing and number of arbitration and free agent years covered (which is the point I'm making) is accurate. 

So the question comes to… who is next? 

It would seem that our best extensions were ones that bought out arbitration and a year or two of FA.  The only two players we extended past that were Braun and Yelich.  In both cases, we knew it would be fine initially and a bit painful at the end of the contract.  Outside of steroid-gate (and the subsequent suspension), Braun earned his money up to the thumb injury.  Yelich unfortunately hurt his back immediately after signing the extension and went from a 7+bWAR player to the current 2-3 bWAR player he is today.  At 33 years old with 3 years more on the contract, he probably won’t be any more than a 3 bWAR player.  

Ashby’s extension might be the only first contract that didn’t work out great for the Brewers – though I’d be hard pressed to call it a “bust” either.  On the other sides, the initial Braun and Yelich extensions along with Freddy’s extension were rousing wins for the Brewers.  Chourio’s extension is also well on its way to joining them, but too early to know for sure right now.

My favorite targets for extension (in age order):

  • William Contreras – This one might be a bit too late as we just finalized his last year of arbitration.  With a 4.9 bWAR season in 2024 (and gathered MVP votes), he managed 3.9 bWAR last year with a broken finger.  Now 28 years old and healthy, I think he is going to have a great season.  I wouldn’t pay him like an MVP, but he is clearly a top 3-4 catcher in the majors.  A 4-year extension would be a great way to pair Contreras with the coming wave of talent without putting an anchor around the Brewer’s payroll with a player long past his prime.  He also has an intangible leadership quality that was emphasized even more after losing Adames.
  • Brice Turang – Brice’s ascension the last couple of years has been fun to watch.  Hard to believe that a couple of years ago, there were questions on whether he was a MLB caliber player.  His OPS+ (61, 85, 121) and bWAR (1.5, 4.7, 5.6) growth shows his growing value to the team; not only defensively but offensively as well.  Plus, he just showcased that to the world with a strong WBC performance. Brice is pre-arbitration right now, so he fits right into the Brewer’s MO for an extension.
  • Jacob Misiorowski – Despite Jacob’s All-Star Appearance and good playoff performance, his rookie season was only average on the whole.  But his ceiling is undeniable and the Brewers don’t have another pitcher with top of the rotation potential like him.  But as with all pitchers, there is the risk of injury sapping his ceiling and this is an area that seems to bite the Brewers more often than not.
  • Jesus Made – Three years ago, suggesting this type of extension would’ve been widely ridiculed… but along came Jackson Chourio and his 8 (or 10) year extension before he was even on the 40-man roster.  But did we just get a once-in-a-generation type player twice in 2 years?  Jackson played most of the year at AA and just touched AAA before signing his contract that precipitated his 20 year-old rookie season.  Now the highly touted Made is set to play at AA this year with AAA easily in his reach, will the Brewers take the same approach and sign him to a long term deal that will pair our future to these two young and exciting players?

Who is your choice?

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BrewerFan

BrewerFan 1,710

Posted

Turang if you can get a reasonable Marte-esque type extension(not quite Marte given Marte was closer to FA, but 7/90+2 TOs... maybe). 

Misi- I'd 100% do right now. 8 years 100M 2 TOs for 25M per. Yeah, I know he's a pitcher... and I'd still do it. People use deGrom as the "what if" in terms of healthy. Look at his first 8 years. 

Made- Mis is 1A, Made is 1-1- I'd give him a Chourio type extension... though I imagine it'd be more expensive. Maybe 8/80+2 TO at 20M with a 10M buyout and MVP, incentives, give him the chance to earn 8/100. 

Contreras-I'd float a 5 year 75M extension... but I think we're too close to FA for that to be viable. 

Frelick would be a contingency plan as I don't think Turang or Mis will sign. American players are less likely to... though with a pitcher like Mis, still gotta try IMO. He looks like he's just going to keep getting better. 


Ultimately, I suspect Made will be the most likely and we're too late on Contreras and probably on Turang. I'm also just not afraid to pay a guy into his 30s. I'm afraid to pay him into his mid 30s or late 30s, but 32-33? Not at all a concern. 

Uribe-I'd go 8/40+2 TOs at 12M AAV. 

  • Like 2
CheezWizHed

CheezWizHed 2,363

Posted

And the answer was... Cooper Pratt! 8 years, $51M with two club option years.  Very interesting... seems like this will lock him into the MLB club next year like it did Chourio. 

image.png.f115c247df76ea183d09df3651c40214.png

 

BrewerFan

BrewerFan 1,710

Posted

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

And the answer was... Cooper Pratt! 8 years, $51M with two club option years.  Very interesting... seems like this will lock him into the MLB club next year like it did Chourio. 

image.png.f115c247df76ea183d09df3651c40214.png

 

He'd have been in my top 15 guesses, but near the bottom!

You usually don't extend a guy who... isn't really ready to play at the MLB level! I mean, I think he could give you what Ortiz did last year(mostly)... but this type of deal?

What the hell, I'm all for extending as many young players as possible. I honestly think if you sign as many young players as you can to these types of deals, even if you get a few who don't live up to their potential, you still come out on top... I mean, if it's reasonable. I think Pratt's floor is a very good defensive SS/3B who can hit for some power and put up a ~700 OPS. That's a fairly negative outlook, but... that's worth this deal. 

I doubt the Brewers believe that's the player he's going to be. 

(By the way, a player I forgot was Quinn Priester... I wouldn't be shocked to see him extended for ~6/45+2 TO and some incentives based on IP and... maybe CY Voting, top 10-15). 

  • Like 1
CheezWizHed

CheezWizHed 2,363

Posted

18 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

He'd have been in my top 15 guesses, but near the bottom!

You usually don't extend a guy who... isn't really ready to play at the MLB level! I mean, I think he could give you what Ortiz did last year(mostly)... but this type of deal?

What the hell, I'm all for extending as many young players as possible. I honestly think if you sign as many young players as you can to these types of deals, even if you get a few who don't live up to their potential, you still come out on top... I mean, if it's reasonable. I think Pratt's floor is a very good defensive SS/3B who can hit for some power and put up a ~700 OPS. That's a fairly negative outlook, but... that's worth this deal. 

I doubt the Brewers believe that's the player he's going to be. 

(By the way, a player I forgot was Quinn Priester... I wouldn't be shocked to see him extended for ~6/45+2 TO and some incentives based on IP and... maybe CY Voting, top 10-15). 

Pratt was a surprise to just about everyone.  If I compare ceilings and floors of our top 3 prospects (excluding Jett as he is "new" to the org):

  • Cooper - his defense gives him a high floor and his physical attributes give him a decent ceiling, but performance has been a bit limited offensively. 
  • Made - Certainly a much higher ceiling.  His floor is probably similar, though his D seems to be a touch less. 
  • Pena - Higher ceiling offensively than Pratt, but lower floor given his defense and some struggles before he hit AA.  

I think Made is really they one they would normally target for the Chourio treatment and maybe he will this fall?  Or maybe Made passed on it so they turned to Pratt?  

I can certainly see less bust risk with Pratt over Pena.  

I like Priester, but I don't see the upside with him.  I think he will make a strong #3/#2 level SP and be the workhorse type player, but not quite the TOR SP you would generally target to tie up.  

BrewerFan

BrewerFan 1,710

Posted

7 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Pratt was a surprise to just about everyone.  If I compare ceilings and floors of our top 3 prospects (excluding Jett as he is "new" to the org):

  • Cooper - his defense gives him a high floor and his physical attributes give him a decent ceiling, but performance has been a bit limited offensively. 
  • Made - Certainly a much higher ceiling.  His floor is probably similar, though his D seems to be a touch less. 
  • Pena - Higher ceiling offensively than Pratt, but lower floor given his defense and some struggles before he hit AA.  

I think Made is really they one they would normally target for the Chourio treatment and maybe he will this fall?  Or maybe Made passed on it so they turned to Pratt?  

I can certainly see less bust risk with Pratt over Pena.  

I like Priester, but I don't see the upside with him.  I think he will make a strong #3/#2 level SP and be the workhorse type player, but not quite the TOR SP you would generally target to tie up.  

I guess I don't get why they're doing this when a guy SHOULD probably be playing a year in AAA yet. Is this more like a 7 year deal with 2 TOs and... then you get into the whole 2027 lock out. 

It's just a weird time for me, but, again, I'm such a fan of these moves that I'm not going to question it too much. 

CheezWizHed

CheezWizHed 2,363

Posted

12 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I guess I don't get why they're doing this when a guy SHOULD probably be playing a year in AAA yet. Is this more like a 7 year deal with 2 TOs and... then you get into the whole 2027 lock out. 

It's just a weird time for me, but, again, I'm such a fan of these moves that I'm not going to question it too much. 

One thing that I really like about Arnold (and the Brewer's front office) is that he tends to zig when people zag.  A bit of the Moneyball concept in that they find value in places where others don't.  We can't compete with the $$ other teams throw at players so they are being very creative in how they build the team...and have been very successful lately.  Most wins in the majors last year AND one of the top farm systems despite drafting low and not handing out the largest International bonuses. 

These contracts will obviously be judged over the next 10 years... but it is being very creative. I hope they get Made in the fall too. 

Samurai Bucky

Samurai Bucky 628

Posted

13 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

One thing that I really like about Arnold (and the Brewer's front office) is that he tends to zig when people zag.  A bit of the Moneyball concept in that they find value in places where others don't.  We can't compete with the $$ other teams throw at players so they are being very creative in how they build the team...and have been very successful lately.  Most wins in the majors last year AND one of the top farm systems despite drafting low and not handing out the largest International bonuses. 

These contracts will obviously be judged over the next 10 years... but it is being very creative. I hope they get Made in the fall too. 

Fortunately, he has hit on the other big signing -- Chourio.  Is there much room for error?  I hope he keeps up the track record.

  • Like 1
Brock Beauchamp

Brock Beauchamp 3,302

Posted

Made is the easy choice, Miz is the more interesting choice.

  • Like 1

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