Where is the Money Going? 5 Ways the Brewers Can Spend It

[Ryan Pollak]

The Milwaukee Brewers have saved millions of dollars from early moves this offseason. Why was that their priority? Here are a few different directions the team could be going for the rest of this winter. 

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

At this stage of an offseason full of transitions, it is hard to predict what direction the Milwaukee Brewers are going. The organization has stated they are trying to stay competitive for 2024, yet their recent transactions and preliminary reporting on their plans hint at some version of a rebuild.

Since the 2023 World Series, the Brewers have shed over $50 million from their projected 2024 payroll, via trades, declined options, and non-tendered players. If the team were to bring back every remaining player who’s going through arbitration, the projected payroll would be somewhere around $90 million, a number roughly $35 million less than the 2023 payroll, according to Spotrac.com.

Where is all this money going to end up? Here are a few ways the team can spend their extra cash.

Save the Money: Rebuild Begins
A few days ago, fellow Brewer Fanatic writer Matt Breen mentioned a scenario wherein the Brewers can reboot the team. This is a reality no one really wants, but it might be the one that makes the most sense in the long run.

Corbin Burnes, Willy Adames and Adrian Houser are all scheduled to become free agents at the end of the 2024 season. The same can be said for Devin Williams and Hoby Milner after the 2025 season.

We’ve had the privilege of keeping these players due to club control, but once they hit the free market, they become hard to retain. With any team able to bid on these athletes, they have probably played their way out of the Crew’s price range and could be gone forever as soon as that club control expires.

Before that happens, the organization can opt to trade these players, adding prospects to their system rather than letting them walk in free agency and starting from Square One. Then, the team can utilize their younger players in hopes of finding the next big star.

As for the money they've saved, the Brewers could divert it to fill the holes that were left by those who were traded. We're not talking about big-money arrivals, but there are always some low-risk, medium-reward options at the lower end of the market. The unspent money can also be used to sign extensions for those core players whom the team sees as a long-time fixture within the organization. Candidates include William Contreras, Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, or even MLB’s No. 2 overall prospect, Jackson Chourio.

The rebuild doesn’t even need to be that long; we might have the talent to fill some holes in short order. Depending on what they get in those trades, the aforementioned Chourio could replace Tyrone Taylor, Jacob Misiorowski could be a future ace in the rotation, and 2023 draftees Cooper Pratt and Brock Wilken might shore up the infield--assuming, admittedly with some unchecked optimism, that all these players perform well in the big leagues. Then, just like that, we are back in business.

Much Deserved Pay Raise: Extend Corbin Burnes
As I mentioned earlier, Burnes is set for free agency after next season. He’s due a major pay raise, anyway. Why don’t the Brewers offer a huge contract, so the former Cy Young Award winner stays in town?

For the longest time, it seemed the Brewers had to choose between him and Brandon Woodruff. However, with Woodruff being non-tendered, there’s now a chance they will lose both. With Woodruff gone, the team might have the funds to pay the ace and keep the rotation strong for years to come. However, this would come with a huge price tag, as he would be considered one of the best pitchers in baseball.

To gauge the amount Burnes is worth, we can look at previous contracts signed by starting pitchers between now and last offseason. Just last season, Carlos Rodon signed a six-year deal worth $162 million, Jacob Degrom signed a five-year deal worth $185 million, and Justin Verlander signed a two-year deal worth $86.67 million. Now, these averages vary, but it seems that pitchers are looking for deals above $30 million a year.

Don’t be surprised if Burnes asks for a deal similar to DeGrom’s, which averages $37 million per year. This would explain why the Brewers could have been parting ways with other big contracts--as a way to find the money to pay the man. Should the Brewers extend Burnes, he would become the highest-paid player in franchise history. This would also be the only time the organization signed a multi-year extension with a pitcher after their arbitration years began.

However, Burnes himself said he and the Crew haven’t had any discussions about a possible extension. Things can change and anything can happen, but as of now, things aren’t looking good for anyone clinging to hope of these two sides finding common ground.

Money in, Money Out: Retooling the Franchise
Infamously, there have been reports that suggest any player on the roster could be traded. The Brewers don’t have to have a fire sale of all their good players, though. Instead, they could trade some players, keep other players on expiring deals, and fill other needs with the cash they've saved.

For example, let’s say the Brewers sign a starting pitcher to a deal similar to the three-year, $33-million accord on which they landed Kyle Lohse back in 2013. Maybe one of the pitchers from my article about retooling the starting rotation would sign such a deal. Then, the Brewers can keep Burnes and construct another three-headed monster in the starting rotation, alongside Freddy Peralta.

Though we're talking about keeping Burnes in the short term, it still would be likely he leaves in free agency. The least the Brewers can get then would be an early-round draft pick in the subsequent 2025 MLB Draft from the team who signs him. But at the very least, the rotation stays strong for one more year.

They could move on from Willy Adames via trade, move Brice Turang over to shortstop and either sign a player to play second base for a year or fill the hole internally. The trade that brought in Yankees-***-Phillies infield prospect Oliver Dunn points in that direction. Doing so will provide the chance for young guys to showcase their skills against MLB talent. This would also save around $10-12 million to spend elsewhere, whether it be on other extensions or free-agent signings.

Williams would probably stay with the organization, seeing as they don’t have a clear replacement for the closer role should they trade him. But as a reminder, former closer Josh Hader was traded with around the same amount of club control that Williams has heading into the 2024 season.

Whatever money the organization has left, they could use to bring back players like Victor Caratini, Carlos Santana, or even Brandon Woodruff, reassembling a modified version of the team that won the NL Central last year. Granted, not all players can come back, so the front office would have to stomach hefty expenses to sign upgrades for the positions at which incumbents have moved on, or will soon do so.

The best part about this is, if the team starts to fall flat, the organization could then trade the players who have one or two years of team control left and flip them for more prospects in their already-great farm system.

Keeping the Band Together: Extend Contreras and Co.
Around this time last year, the Brewers were part of the three-team trade with the Atlanta Braves and the Oakland Athletics that sent Sean Murphy to the Braves. In this trade, the Brewers received Joel Payamps from the Athletics and Contreras (plus minor-league pitcher Justin Yeager) from the Braves, in exchange for outfield prospect Esteury Ruiz.

While we don’t know what the Crew got in Yeager, Payamps eventually became the eighth-inning setup man for the 2023 Brewers, with an impressive 2.55 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. Meanwhile, Contreras won the Silver Slugger award for the catcher position in the National League, the first person to so for the Brewers. He had a .289/.367/.457 slash line, while hitting 17 homers and 78 RBI in his first year with the team.

With four years of club control, the Brewers can opt to sign Contreras to the minimum salary of $740,000 in his last pre-arbitration year. However, it seems both parties want to sign a deal that would keep him in Milwaukee longer than the end of 2027. This isn’t unheard-of, as other organizations have signed their younger stars to huge extensions prior to their arbitration years.

Players like Julio Rodriguez, Luis Robert, and Eloy Jimenez have all received deals that kept them with their organizations for extended periods of time. The Brewers could do the same with the catcher. They've even tried this themselves, as they signed both Peralta and Aaron Ashby to multi-year contracts that would keep them beyond their first six years of service time. So why not try to keep the 26-year-old catcher?

Whether they extend Contreras or not, the Brewers will have a lot of money left over. Maybe they can look to sign other players to extensions. Adames, Williams and Payamps are all in their years of arbitration and could be signed to extensions.

Signing Adames would make other infield prospects and current players a little more expendable in the trade market, while signing Williams and Payamps could secure their one-two punch in the bullpen for years. Carlos Gomez, Ryan Braun, and (most recently) Christian Yelich have all signed contract extensions while still part of the organization.

Every extension, however, provides a risk for a team, because there’s no telling what type of production the player can put up multiple years down the road. Look at Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nationals. He signed a seven-year, $245-million contract after helping the team win the World Series in 2019. Since then, injuries derailed his career. He hasn’t pitched in a single game since June 2022.

Final Push: Brewers Go All In
You would think that an organization trading away assets and losing their longest-tenured manager could lead to the team starting over. But we may be overthinking it. Even with a new coach, Matt Arnold said the Brewers plan to stay competitive.

This might mean the team is just saving up to make a big move to make one last push to try to win it all in 2024. Some of the biggest needs for upgrades are the corner-infield positions; a backup catcher; an arm in the rotation; a lefty reliever; and a DH bat.

If the Brewers are willing to pay, the team can cover a two-for-one, bringing in former Texas Ranger. Mitch Garver or former Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins. Another player who can fill multiple voids in the roster is Jeimer Candelario, who can man third base or first base. Even Justin Turner (who has been tied to the Brewers in previous offseasons) is back on the market.

What about arms for the pen? Aroldis Chapman, Wandy Peralta, Brad Hand and former Brewer Brent Suter are all lefties and are available. As for starters, Mike Clevinger, Jack Flaherty, Johnny Cueto and Wade Miley are all great mid- to back-of-the-rotation arms for the team.

If not in the free-agent market, then maybe another trade can be made. Jimenez, from the Chicago White Sox, was rumored to be on the move prior to the trade deadline this summer, and it was mentioned that the Brewers checked in on the 27-year-old. The Athletics might sell starting pitcher Paul Blackburn, who has two years of club control remaining. The Twins are reportedly shopping certain players in an effort to cut payroll.

The window for the Brewers to win a World Series is closing, and now might be the time to go full throttle before calling up the rookies from their farm system. With role players heading into free agency after the 2024 season, this might be their last chance to do it.

No matter what the Brewers decide to do this offseason, it’s already off to a crazy start. With Pat Murphy at the helm, we will see a different team come Opening Day. So, buckle up because it is going to be a bumpy ride these next few months.

What would you like to see the Brewers do this offseason? What direction do you see the Crew going? Let us know in the comments below.

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[Michael Trzinski]

Here's a couple long-term, big-money contracts that bit the Brewers...

Teodoro Higuera (4 year, $13.1 M) The barrel-chested pitcher appeared in 32 games in 1991, 1993, and 1994. He missed all of 1992. 124 innings pitched. $108K per inning.

Jeff Suppan (4 year, $42 M) 'Soup' pitched for Milw from 2007-2010. He was durable enough, with 97 starts and 110 appearances, but his ERA+ was 84, FIP was 5.14, and his WHIP was 1.60. 

Both of these guys are cautionary tales for long-term hurlers...