What do you think Matt Arnold’s plans are after signing Chourio?

[bensheeps]

This tweet from the Brewers today matches the same one from Contreras last week.  Something up?

[DR28]

29 minutes ago, bensheeps said:

This tweet from the Brewers today matches the same one from Contreras last week.  Something up?

I saw that, something is coming!!!!

[nate82]

13 minutes ago, DR28 said:

I saw that, something is coming!!!!

Spring Training is what is coming.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

42 minutes ago, bensheeps said:

This tweet from the Brewers today matches the same one from Contreras last week.  Something up?

It isn't really a well-kept secret that the Chourio extension is being announced today. Brewers are holding a press conference at the Winter meetings in Nashville. If I had to guess, that is what this is about.

A doubly-whammy surprise Contreras extension would be pretty sweet, though.  

[Playing Catch]

Adames' defense is definitely very, very good, and part of his "package," of traits that teams would find appealing. His bat comes and goes, but his glovework is great.

This is precisely why I'm concerned about losing him. Right now, the Brewers have him and Turang, but who backs up SS when Turang takes over?

Just like when people say they want to get pitching back in a Burnes deal, I've been scouring good SS prospects, and I just don't see many that are likely both strong defensively and at least competent with the bat.

 

[Brewcrew82]

28 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

Adames' defense is definitely very, very good, and part of his "package," of traits that teams would find appealing. His bat comes and goes, but his glovework is great.

This is precisely why I'm concerned about losing him. Right now, the Brewers have him and Turang, but who backs up SS when Turang takes over?

Just like when people say they want to get pitching back in a Burnes deal, I've been scouring good SS prospects, and I just don't see many that are likely both strong defensively and at least competent with the bat.

 

Joey Ortiz, who is blocked by Henderson and Holliday in Baltimore, would be the one. Plus to plus plus defender and has been steadily improving with the bat. 

[Redd Vencher]

23 hours ago, nate82 said:

Burnes value will be closer to what the Padres gave up for Snell in 2020.  So a top 50 prospect and then a couple of organizational top 15-20 prospects.  That is Burnes true worth. 

If you want to put it in a dollar value Burnes has a value of about $35mm assuming he has another 4+ WAR year.  Add in the pick which for the Braves would be o  A top 50 ranked prospect is about $30mm in value which will be in the 3rd round as the Braves will be a CBT Payor with the acquisition of Burnes.  So lets add $5mm to bring this to about $40mm in excess value which is more than what Burnes is worth but I am taking in a serious bidding war for him.  If the Brewers hold onto him until the deadline it will be less than $40mm in excess value probably around $25-30mm.  Which means you would have someone like Waldrep headlining the deal for Burnes.

So with AJ Smith-Shawver who is a 50 FV prospect which puts him at about $25mm in excess value.  So we are about $15mm short of a Burnes trade number.  $40mm is the top of the market so anything within +/- $5mm should be accurate enough.  Waldrep is also a 50 FV prospect so we have two players totaling $50mm in value.  That is $10mm over Burnes valuation with his draft pick associated with him. 

It is an absolute overpay by the Braves if you are including Waldrep with AJ Smith-Shawver.  You can get one but you are not getting both.  The one year of control of Burnes is what is holding back his value.  If this were last year yes you would be correct Burnes would command both Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver but not with only 1-year of control left. 

 Based on your analysis, the White Sox got like +$20 M surplus in their Giolito trade. (Quero was a 50 grade position player and they're about $7 M more valuable than a 50 grade pitcher) Burnes is much better than Giolito, so the $10 M difference in your analysis doesn't make it unreasonable.

[Playing Catch]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Joey Ortiz, who is blocked by Henderson and Holliday in Baltimore, would be the one. Plus to plus plus defender and has been steadily improving with the bat. 

Heh, yep, he was the only one that fit my bill!

[Matt Breen]

19 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

Heh, yep, he was the only one that fit my bill!

Joey Ortiz would be a nice addition, especially if Willie gets traded.

[CheezWizHed]

After signing Chourio, I'm guessing Matt Arnold had a nice steak dinner.  😅