What are the Brewers Getting in Joey Ortiz?

[Jamie Cameron]

The Brewers acquired Joey Ortiz as part of the return for Corbin Burnes on Thursday night. What can Brewers fans expect from Ortiz in 2024? What's to like and what is left to work on? Let's dig in.

The Brewers traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles on Thursday night, for a return that included two prospects and a Comp A pick in the 2024 draft. One half of that prospect return was Joey Ortiz, an outstanding defensive infielder ranked 91st in Kiley McDaniel’s recently released top 100 prospects, and 63rd in MLB Pipeline’s most recent publication. What does Ortiz offer the Brewers? Let’s dig in.

Ortiz is a slight player. At 5’9, 190 lbs, and his gaudy collegiate offensive output may have said more about the friendly confines (for hitters) of New Mexico State’s home field, than his offensive tools. His inculcation into the Baltimore farm system was significantly disrupted. After being selected in the fourth round of the 2019 draft, a COVID-eliminated 2020 season was followed up by a torn labrum in 2021. He reached AAA in 2023 and oscillated between Norfolk and Baltimore in 2023. For the purpose of this analysis, we’ll focus on data from his time at AAA last season.

Ortiz did get a cup of coffee in the majors in 2023. In 15 games he hit .212/.206/.448 with 9 strikeouts. This is a nothing sample, so let’s set it aside for now. The scouting report coming out of college on Ortiz was ‘good bat to ball skills, little power, and excellent defense underpinned by good instincts, lateral quickness, and defensive actions’. How does this hold up four years later?

Ortiz was much too good for AAA pitching in 2023. In 88 games he hit .321/.378/.507 (.885), with a 17.7 K% and 8.2 BB%. Ortiz also hit 9 home runs, 30 doubles, and 4 triples. While the power is probably fringe average, he’s added strength and produced enough gap to gap power to have significant value, particularly if/when playing an up the middle defensive position.

Ortiz’ bat to ball skills are the driver of his offensive profile, but analyzing his quality of contact, in conjunction with this, can help unearth and illustrate the impact added strength has brought to his game. In AAA in 2023, he managed an 81.3 contact%. That’s 8.2% better than the AAA average. Ortiz’ bat to ball skills are relatively immutable. They were consistent against left-handed and right-handed pitching (83% and 80.7%), consistent by month throughout the season, and relatively consistent across pitch types. There was a distinction in Ortiz’ contact between hard stuff (fast/si/ct) at 85.2% and breaking stuff (76.4%). Even his diminished numbers against curveballs and sliders were better than average for the level. 

But what about the quality of contact? Based on his offensive profile coming out of college, we might expect Ortiz’ contact to be middling in quality. Not so. The average exit velocity in AAA in 2023 was 87.4 mph. Ortiz’ average was 90.1 mph. This is a top 40 number in AAA baseball for the 2023 season, just below Kyle Manzardo. Additionally, Ortiz’ Barrel% was above level average at 18.7% (Tru Media defines Barrel% as batted balls with an exit velocity north of 95 mph hit between 10 and 35 degrees). It’s worth noting here that the ABS system undoubtedly bloated AAA offensive environments in 2023. That’s worth considering as a small caveat when considering any hitters' adjustment from AAA to MLB. We can see from Ortiz' spray chart bucketed by exit velocity that he uses the whole field well with his hardest hit batted ball events.

We know then, that Ortiz has excellent bat to ball skills and hits the ball hard, generating quality contact, a promising start, but what about his swing decisions? There is an orange flag here, for me. Ortiz did carry a high Chase% (32.6%) through his stint in AAA in 2023. Ortiz’ proclivity to chase is significantly increased in pitchers counts (39.9%). While it’s not surprising to see an increase when a pitcher has leverage, this definitely helps connect the dots on how to attack Ortiz. His blind spot in plate coverage is down and away. I’d expect to him to see a steady diet of breaking pitches away around the fringes of the strike zone, a plan of attack he’ll have to adjust to to find sustained success.

We can’t talk about Ortiz without discussing his defense. Ortiz can play anywhere in the infield and offer at least plus, potentially double plus defense with an above average arm (where he plays in the Brewers infield is another question entirely). Strong defense provides great value, the kind we usually undervalue in trade assessments. Indeed, ZiPS projects Ortiz as a 1.8 win player in 2024. Ortiz has a solid value floor from his defense and versatility alone. Being a league average hitter with fringe average power would only add to that. 

I’ve seen some (read, many) surprised reactions to this trade for the Brewers. The return, in particular, has been labeled light. I think that’s a disservice to what the Brewers gained. They have five top 100 picks in the 2024 draft at their disposal, a lefty in DL Hall whose arm talent has thus far outstripped the consistency of his performances. In Ortiz, they have a stable, cost-controlled up the middle defender, who has multiple avenues to accrue value for Milwaukee for the next half decade.

View full article

[Terry]

Interesting to see that there's a stark difference between Trackman's Barrel%(2% well below average) and this one's.