Aaron Civale Was the Perfect First Move for the 2024 Brewers. What's the Perfect Next Move?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Spending more of Mark Attanasio's money instead of giving up significant young talent means the Brewers have a lot of options for the balance of this month. How will they try to cap a World Series-capable roster?

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports

When news of Aaron Civale being traded to the Brewers hit Baseball Twitter Wednesday morning, it made for a few nervous moments among lovers of Brewers prospects. As it turned out, though, that agita was wasted energy, because all the Crew surrendered in the trade was Gregory Barrios, an infielder for the Timber Rattlers who has youth and athleticism to recommend him, but who didn't figure prominently into the team's future plans even before being dealt.

It was possible to extract Civale from the Rays in exchange for Barrios not only because the veteran right-handed hurler is having a superficially tough season (5.07 ERA, 16 home runs allowed), but because the Rays were in no position to consider Civale even a medium-term asset. He's under team control through 2025, but in 2024, he's making $4.9 million as an arbitration-eligible player, and that salary will rise next year. When the Rays acquire pitchers like Civale (as they did last summer), they're thinking about how they can help that player make immediate improvements, and then about extending them on a team-friendly long-term deal.

The improvement didn't materialize for Civale; the Rays appear to have taken the wrong tack in trying to unlock his talent. Because the fit of player and team didn't bear immediate fruit, though, they also missed their chance to get together on a mutually agreeable contract. The Rays never intended to pay Civale $7 million or more in 2025 and then watch him leave via free agency, which quickly became the most likely outcome, so they were ready to move on and willing to accept a fairly low-wattage prospect in return.

For the Brewers, that circumstance is a boondoggle. They not only got Civale for a player whom they're unlikely to miss, but plugged one key hole in their résumé as a serious World Series contender without sacrificing the ability to plug another one via some other move in the next few weeks. Civale, from whom they surely expect to get reliable innings and a better level of performance, stabilizes their rotation even beyond this season, which gives them more flexibility and more opportunities.

This deal coincides with this week's release of a couple of midseason updates to national top prospect lists, led by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America. The Brewers placed a trio of players (Jeferson Quero, Jacob Misiorowski, and Tyler Black) on each list and a fourth (Cooper Pratt) at the back end of one of them. That reflects the reality that their farm system is roughly average, and maybe a hair below that, but that, in turn, only reflects the fact that the team has graduated a handful of good players recently, including and especially Jackson Chourio, Joey Ortiz, Brice Turang, and Sal Frelick.

Obtaining Civale didn't rob Matt Arnold and company of the talent they need to make an even bigger acquisition this month, and all those young players (not just the aforementioned ones, but pitchers who have had a tougher time yet might have bright futures, like DL Hall) make it an especially good time to trade from the depth they still enjoy. Prospects are never fully superfluous, for a team with the constraints the Brewers face, but they have long-term answers at a number of positions and the ninth-richest bonus pool allotment for the upcoming MLB Draft.

There's been a reluctance, even and especially among Brewers fans themselves, to imagine and embrace that this might be the team who finally breaks through and wins a National League pennant--let alone what would be the first championship in franchise history. Even as many fans have enjoyed the team's fantastic first half, they've held some wariness in reserve, and they've bristled at the suggestion that they would go all-in to win this season. When Ken Rosenthal mentioned something along those lines on a YouTube show recently, it caused a kerfuffle at least as large as the one in response to his musings on whether the team would trade their starting shortstop, a month ago.

Part of that problem is lexicographical. We don't have a much better term than 'all-in' to connote aggressive pursuit of a championship through deadline upgrades, but in truth, anything the Brewers would do this month would stop far short of being a full-fledged bet on this season, alone. The Brewers will be good in 2025 and beyond, or not, based not on whether they make trades that deplete their current stock of prospect talent, but on whether they can stay ahead of much of the rest of the league in scouting and player development, and on whether they continue to sniff out and pounce on opportunities like the one they seized in acquiring Civale. The Chourio-Christian Yelich-William Contreras-Freddy Peralta core of this team will not be threatened by expending the resource that is their trove of young talent this month, even though every trade that degrades the farm does put more pressure on them to get the next season's round of draft picks and international signings correct.

I hope Brewers fans realize that this team is not a fluke, and that they're good enough to go deep into October. Although they're well ahead of the rest of the NL Central in the fundamentals of their organization (including and especially their talent base), that condition is not guaranteed to persist in perpetuity. In fact, it's unlikely to. The Cardinals don't have enough in the tank to catch this team this year, especially now that the Crew have added Civale, but they're going to catch up a bit soon. The Pirates and Reds are drawing incrementally closer to having a critical mass of talent and turning the corner all the time, and the Cubs (though mismanaged and disorganized right now) have a massive financial edge that could accelerate their return to contention. 

The Brewers should not, by any means, be treating this as a transitional year or the pinch point between two wider windows of contention. Their window is right now. It's wide open, and might never be more so again. There's no guarantee that this team will ever win a championship, but right now (while they have Willy Adames, for whom they can collect a solid draft pick this winter anyway; and Devin Williams, who might be gone by next Opening Day; and Rhys Hoskins, who might well be here again in 2025 but is only getting older) they have a real chance to do so. Civale was a good target. He draws them slightly nearer to that goal.

Now, they should be grateful that acquiring him was so painless, and brace themselves for the necessary but profitable pain of another, bigger trade before the month is over. This pitching staff could use one more injection of dominance, especially if a rental starter emerges as a candidate, and the lineup could use a little bit more reinforcement. This is no time to stare fixedly at a glorious future that might never arrive. It's time to forge that glory right here in the present.

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[CheeseheadInQC]

"All the Crew surrendered in the trade was Gregory Barrios, an infielder for the Timber Rattlers who has youth and athleticism to recommend him, but who didn't figure prominently into the team's future plans even before being dealt."

I seem to have spent much of today defending Barrios, which is a bit odd given that I didn't hate the trade given the organizational depth at shortstop in the lower minor leagues. This statement is pretty blanket, however. The Brewers have pretty consistently treated Barrios as a prospect of note. He was Carolina's leadoff hitter to start last season, and they didn't stop playing him at shortstop despite the type of struggles that had seen other prospects shifted to the "sporadic playing time at whatever position someone needs a day off at" duty (see Vargas, Jheremy). Then this season, they picked him for a spot at Wisconsin over the more highly touted Guilarte, handed him the shortstop job and never looked back.

How many prospects do you think would fall under the "figure prominently into the team's future plans" heading? Because I think you could make a good case Barrios is on the same tier as Adams, Di Turi, Pena, Made and Boeve as far as infielders go.

[Sugarrayray]

Very interesting points made. I’ll be ruminating on said points over the next few weeks. Thank you.

Also, do you really assess the Crew’s farm system is average or slightly below? They may lack the high-end talent they enjoyed the past couple seasons, although they still have a solid amount of that, but they appear to have one of, if not the deepest systems in baseball. Thoughts?

[biedergb]

The Brewers prospect pool and talent is strong. Lacking the high end talent due to graduations of Chourio, Frelick and Ortiz, as well as the injury of Quero and Misiorowski’s struggles with any consistency, they still boast great depth.  Name a position and there are several prospects playing well at young ages with more upside. Pratt, Y. Rodriguez represent 2 guys who could be top 100 prospects this year or next. Wilken and Boeve are top picks from last year who are at AA doing well, not great. But that’s aggressive for development. And the DSL teams are teeming with breakout candidates,
 

Pitching lacks the high end (other than Miz who is really struggling with consistency, yes I’m repeating myself), and no Burnes in the system.  But each club has 3-4 pitchers of note, and many are unsung but this is what the brewers have excelled at - getting innings out of players to make the rotation strong and the bullpen elite. So Yoho may not make top 100 lists as a reliever, but he could be dominant. And there are 2 of last years pitchers drafted in 2023 who are in AA (Yoho and Wichrowski) and 2 others who could join them (Manfredi and Kuener).  Lower minors sees a lot of young arms - just look at Carolina where three 18yo (top pick Knoth, M. Rodriguez, and E Cortez) N]and two 19yo (‘23 draftee Letson, and D. Corniel) anchoring the starting rotation.

So far from perfect, and less shiny than last year, but a deep prospect pool, and that competition can bring out the best, and having multiple players at a position means you are less reliant on one player developing, but expecting one of that group to shine.  Like with SS where Cooper Pratt seems to be taking that mantle for now (but with Guilarte, DiTuri, Adamczewski, and DSL Made/Pena all ready to step up to fight for that too).