CheeseheadInQC

Just looking at Fangraphs, they’ve got the his overall contact rate at 69.6, which isn’t great, but is better than last year so far at a higher level.

While a lot might have changed since then (or they might have felt compelled to get the new arrivals stateside more action), it feels based on the spring training lineups that you’d be looking at Antunez, Frias and Fenelon as the primary outfielders, three of Hughes, Acosta, Martinez and Liao at 2nd, SS and 3rd, Mills behind the plate, with some other interesting names manning the first base and backup spots. Hoping some of remaining players from the absurd Made/Pena led class can make their presence felt (Martinez, Rangel, Paulino, possibly a few others). Excited to see Diustin Mayorquin making his stateside debut as well.

It almost seems like it will be disappointing on nights Wisconsin doesn’t score at least 8 runs at this point.

The strikeout rate is what I am guessing keeps him in Appleton a few more weeks. Now Josh Adamczewski on the other hand, I keep checking for that promotion every day.

Have we seen an ABS challenge on a hit by pitch yet? It would be kind of hilarious to have one overturned because the pitch was actually a strike.

If it is a 5 game cycle, probably Healy followed by Carra.

It wouldn’t be a big Luke Adams day without a hit by pitch.

Nice sweep! Big relief innings from Meneses and Manfredi.

Maybe something has been mentioned, but I wonder if the Timber Rattlers do a modified tandem system. They have Meccage, Dorchies and Torres going the first three games and then five guys who started games this spring (Galindez, Woodward, Owens, Smith and Low). While I am skeptical of Low being anything more than an opener, any of the others could be starters for them.

As @Ro Mueller stated in the other thread, Hernandez was never that I can remember brought over to big league camp and never showed up in minor league lineups that were posted. It could be an unofficial rehab assignment or they could have been working on something and wanted to start with the easier placement.

Yah, but I don’t know if he ever moves back to the rotation if he stays in Milwaukee.

I know there are more, but two of the missing players on the minor league rosters who caught my eye were Jacob Morrison and Kevin Garcia, who I don’t think I have seen mention of this spring. Any update on them?

I think if I remember correctly, they have speculated that some of the things the Brewers are good at in concert create some sort of force multiplier.

Williams is coming off a really down year. 2 years, $22 million is I believe what Brad Keller got. $10-11 million per year is what good setup guys or unproven prospective closers were getting. Two more years like last year and Ashby would probably get at least that on the open market.

OK, same rules I used for the hitters for the pitchers. Sleeper: Yorman Galindez It was June of 2024. Yorman Galindez was climbing the Brewers' prospect ranks while mowing down a higher rate of batters in the Carolina League than current top-100 prospects Jarlin Susana and Elmer Rodriguez. A promotion to Wisconsin seemed to be likely, even with an elevated walk rate. Then he got hurt and hasn't pitched in a regular season game since. Now Galindez is back, starting games in minor league spring training. However he seems to have lost a bit of hype, between the injury and the glut of interesting arms the Brewers have at Wisconsin and Carolina this year. I think Galindez is a good bet to reclaim his ascending status this season while pushing his way up the prospect ranks. Deep Sleeper: Carlos Carra It feels weird putting Carra at this level because, well, his resume through two pro seasons should be generating more hype than it has. I guess, to some degree, you can chalk this up to bad timing. He was a late signee in the 2024 class, inking in April of that year out of Mexico. He was part of a DSL group that outside of Wande Torres and Wenderlyn King all had their statistical warts (Argenis Aparicio, Ayendy Bravo, Saul Sanchez, and Manuel Moreno posted lower K rates, Enderson Mercado seemingly let everyone who reached base against him score, etc.). For Carra, it was an elevated walk rate. He did strike out more than 11 per 9 innings and posted an only in the DSL rate of infield fly balls (Almost a 60% flyball rate, 46.4% of which Fangraphs has listed as pop-ups). Then he wasn't one of the DSL arms brought over for spring training (that honor went to Mercado and Miqueas Mercedes). Him being 18 years old in the ACL might have been noteworthy on some teams. It really wasn't on the Brewers. Even striking out more than a batter per inning (which only 13 pitchers ages 18 or younger with at 20 innings pitched did in either Complex League) only placed him third on that list among Brewers (behind Mercado and Ethan Dorchies). Be one of only 18 pitchers in their age 18 or younger season to throw 10 innings in full-season ball? Well, not as notable when fully 1/3 of those were Brewers prospects. All this is to say, I think he's been overlooked (outside of @Spencer Michaelis and @Joseph Zarr's podcast; amazing work once again, guys). This is especially true given that he turned his biggest DSL weakness into a strength, walking barely over 2 batters per 9 on the season and only issuing one walk in his 11 A ball innings. Really Deep Sleeper: Michael Fowler Usually this is where I'd pick some DSL pitcher with good peripherals but a mediocre to lousy ERA. Raymond Sarmiento didn't quite fit as well as Mercado and Daniel Corniel did in previous years, though. Instead, I am bending my rules a little bit for this choice. Fowler was kind of a combo indy ball and UDFA signing this past year. After 8 1/3 A-ball innings and 1 triple-A cameo, the Brewers first assigned him to the Arizona Fall League and then the Spring Breakout roster. It isn't unprecedented for an UDFA to get on the spring breakout roster the following season (see Hostetler, Jack), it is noteworthy that the Brewers think enough of him to give him those assignments. Not bad for a guy who never posted an ERA below 6.80 in college.

Having too many quality starters is both a great “problem” to have and a “problem” that tends not to last long.

Tyler Black is now the only healthy 40-man hitter in Nashville.

I wonder if Rodriguez is getting pushed to the pen because Kuehner is listed as the Sunday starter.

Lara! Man, if he can show more pop this year …

Nice 3 K inning for Gasser.

I'll start with hitting and break it down in my usual way: sleepers, deep sleepers and really deep sleepers. I'm not including any top-45ish prospects (used to be top 30, but 45 is the new 30 in this system), nor any of last year's draft picks. Sleeper: Juan Ortuno Over the last decade, here is a list of all the Brewers players who posted at least 50 plate appearances of sub 20% K-rate, .125+ ISO in both the DSL and ACL within their first two seasons: Hendry Mendez and Juan Ortuno. While this list is obviously shortened by Made, Pena, Anderson, Rodriguez, Lara and Chourio not getting 50 plate appearances (or, in most of their cases, any plate appearances) in Arizona and Quero skipping the DSL because of the pandemic, it still speaks to how well Ortuno has hit. He had arguably one of the 5 best debut DSL offensive seasons the Brewers have ever seen. It just came in the same year as No. 1 and 2 on that list. I fully expect him to excel, setting the table as part of the exciting quartet atop the Wilson lineup, along with Ebel, Encarnacion and Anderson. Deep Sleeper: Frederi Montero When picking these, I look at two things: stats and organizational signals. And that makes Montero an unusual case, because almost no one in the Brewers system has a higher organizational signals to production ratio than Montero. In 2024, he tied for second among the Brewers' squads and 30th overall in DSL plate appearances. And despite posting an 89 wRC+ as part of a signing class so deep that multiple players with 120+ wRC+s ended up repeating the DSL, he got promoted stateside. Once there, he was playing everyday again, starting more than 80% of their games and finishing 10th in the ACL in plate appearances. And again, he posted a 92 wRC+. But, as the spring schedules are coming out, he appears to have become a lock to start the season in Wilson, and routinely has been slotted 5th in their lineup behind only the quartet mentioned above. Montero is a guy who frequently has "hard-swinging" attached to his name with power potential touted, but it hasn't shown up in games yet. Indeed, his batted ball numbers from Arizona last season indicated a Jadher Areinamo-style pure line drive hitter who sprays the ball to all fields rather than your typical corner infield power profile. The Brewers appear to believe in him, so we'll see if he can make the power leap in Wilson this year. Very Deep Sleeper: Cristian Montilla Here is my annual hit-over-power prospect pick after his first DSL season (see Juan Baez, Tyler Rodriguez, Luiyin Alastre, Juan Martinez ... I think I have a type). I considered a few players for this spot. Brailyn Antunez and Alexander Frias were too high profile. Leonard Rijo and Jefer Lista had good strikeout and walk rates and a lot of plate appearances but almost non-existent extra base pop. Matthew Moses had some interesting stats, but as a guy who mostly played first base, the bar is pretty high. Montilla, though had the lowest K-rate among the first-year DSLers, a 10% walk rate, and at least some semblance of an ISO. He also got progressively better as the season went on. I think this is either your surprise ACL promotion or this year's Martinez-type second year DSL breakout.

If he can even be an average hitter, that is a big boost over last year.

It was, by most measures, an amazingly successful season. The best record in their league. A team record for wins. Significant contributions from rookies both at the plate and on the mound. That they were unceremoniously knocked out of the playoffs by a team with a much higher payroll was the only blemish on an amazing team effort. And it was a true team effort. They had no position players in the top 10 in their league in fWAR. The same held true to their pitching staff. Yet despite this, they posted the second best run total in the league on offense. An early season acquisition, who many doubted could be a successful MLB starter, stabilized the rotation during a key stretch as the pitching staff held opponents to the second fewest runs in the league as well. Yes, all in all it was a great 2021 season for the Tampa Bay Rays. Yes, the 2021 Rays. Who did you think I was talking about? The question for us is what lessons the Rays' efforts to continue their success can teach us about the Brewers' obstacles after a remarkably similar season? Things to Watch Out For The following season did not go nearly as well for the Rays. While they squeaked into the playoffs, they totaled 14 fewer wins and finished third in their division. There are a number of lessons that can be drawn from this. Beware the Regression Candidates When your success relies on being good across the board, downturns can have an outsized impact on the team. Mike Zunino hadn't posted a wRC+ about 100 since 2017 heading into the 2021 season. He proceeded to hit 33 home runs and have perhaps his best offensive season. The chances of him repeating that was slim-to-none, but it went worse than the Rays could have imagined. He scuffled to a .499 OPS in 36 games before injury ended his season. Zunino was the most obvious, and his fall the most painful for the Rays, but he wasn't the only one. His backup, Francisco Mejia, posted career-best numbers in 2021 and finally looked like he might be justifying some of the prospect hype that had followed him early in his career. In an expanded role, however, his numbers slid and he fell back to barely above replacement level. Similarly, the Rays suffered dual dropoffs in the outfield. Kevin Kiermeier hadn't had a 100+ since 2017 when he managed to do so in 2021. The following year he failed to repeat that feat while playing in barely over 60 games. Brett Phillips had a career year as Kiermeier's backup in 2021, posting 2.2 fWAR. He then managed a sub-.600 OPS in 200+ at-bats in 2022. While they weren't as obvious of regression candidates, the Rays did benefit from trading two players who were among their cornerstones from 2019-2021, Austin Meadows and Joey Wendle, before their production cratered the following season. Getting Isaac Paredes for Meadows certainly helped stabilize the offense a bit in 2022. Potential Brewers Analogs: Andrew Vaughn provided a huge spark to the Brewers after coming over in a trade from the White Sox. It was also possibly the best stretch of his career to date. He posted a better strikeout rate and a better walk rate with the Brewers than in any of his years in Chicago and hit for more power, too. Maybe the Brewers really did unlock something in Vaughn's approach that is going to lead to him unlocking his hitting talent on a more consistent basis in Milwaukee than he did in Chicago. It also might end up being an anomaly, although even the pre-2024 version of Vaughn would give the Brewers much more than the Rays got from Zunino. Sal Frelick, while younger, could be an analog for Kiermeier. A great defender, Frelick outperformed his peripherals enough where he might have to make improvements just to maintain his offensive output from 2025. The Brewers, however, traded two of their more likely regression candidates in Isaac Collins and Caleb Durbin. If the pair do regress, it could prove prescient. They still, however, will have to find a way to make up for the lost production from 2025 even if that production wouldn't have carried over to 2026. Stay Good at What You're Good At The Rays finished 2021 fifth in the majors in ISO and tied for sixth in home runs. Zunino and Brandon Lowe combined for 72 by themselves. 2022 was a different story. With those two players missing time with injuries, they fell to 22nd in ISO and 25th in home runs. They also dropped from 3rd to 11th in Fangraph's baserunning metric. Similarly, their bullpen dropped from tops in the AL in situational wins to merely solid. Brewers Analogs: For the Brewers, this primarily comes down to two things: get on base and create havoc once you are there. The Brewers were second in OPS last year and first in Fangraphs' baserunning metric. Swapping out Durbin for Rengifo likely hurts from a base running perspective, although getting Hamilton could balance things out. There also exists the possibility that the Brewers could do what the Rays could not: improve on their weakness to balance out some regression in their strength. A full season of Vaughn, a healed Contreras, and, well, whatever has happened with Jake Bauers could make the Brewers closer to average power-wise this year. On the pitching side, they potentially managed to make their strength, arguably the second-best bullpen in the NL last season, given the early returns on Angel Zerpa. Staying healthy and maintaining the level of production (always a big if when it comes to relievers) will be the keys. Get Production from Rookies Inevitably, especially on small market teams like Milwaukee and Tampa Bay, rookies will be forced into action during the season whether you plan on it or not. When your success relies on getting production across the board, you have to get quality at-bats or innings from them. Tampa Bay did not in 2022. Of the players who started the year in the Rays system, Josh Lowe's 81 wRC+ was the high water mark. On the pitching side among this group, the top performer by fWAR was up-down reliever Phoenix Sanders, who the Rays DFA'd in August. The only notable performance was top prospect Shane Baz's six starts in which he managed a 5.00 ERA. The best rookie production came from two in-season acquisitions, center field defensive specialist Jose Siri and reliever Garrett Cleavinger. Brewers Analogs: The Brewers probably will struggle if they don't get meaningful contributions from rookies, especially on the pitching side. Thankfully I doubt they will. On the other hand, I doubt the Rays thought Baz would only pitch in 10 games between AAA and the majors and Vidal Brujan would struggle mightily. Brandon Sproat might be the only rookie on the opening day roster, but the Brewers will likely also need contributions from at least some of Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser, Craig Yoho, Shane Drohan, Coleman Crow, Carlos Rodriguez, or other pitchers who aren't on the 40-man. Hitters like Jett Williams could end up being called upon as well. Their success will be crucial. Don't Be Afraid to Fill Holes Via Trade One thing the Rays did right was filling the holes on their roster via trade. While neither were big-name acquisitions, the trades for Siri and catcher Christian Bethancourt filled significant needs on the Rays' roster. Bethancourt in particular had one of the best stretches of his career for Tampa Bay. If it is the right deal, even small deals can make a load of difference. Hope a Star Emerges Here's the thing: no team chooses to try to win without a top 10 player in the league. Sometimes it just happens. But I'm sure that the Brewers are hoping that at least one of William Contreras, Brice Turang, Jackson Chourio and company can crack that list this year. Tampa Bay, however, once again did not have a top 10 player in 2022 (Shane McClanahan was close on the pitching side, but Yandy Diaz at 23rd was tops among the hitters). And they still managed to make the playoffs again. Still, though, things will be a lot easier for the Brewers if someone steps up and either becomes a star offensively or takes the place of their one top-10 finisher from 2025, Freddy Peralta, on the pitching side. In the end, the Rays, in making the playoffs, albeit with a lesser record, in 2022 showed both the pitfalls and possibilities of trying to win with a balanced team approach. Now it is up to the Brewers to at least try to match their results.

Given Strzelecki just entered the game in Arizona, looks like McGee got the last bullpen spot.

I will be honest, if this is all (just one full season), I will be a bit relieved. I am leery, though, that there may be more coming given that the number of placements (10) corresponds exactly to the difference between the offseason and in-season roster limits.