Make-or-Break Players on the 2025 Milwaukee Brewers: Joey Ortiz

[Michael Trzinski]

For any team shy of juggernaut status, the outcome of the season can swing wildly and unexpectedly, based on the performance of a few high-variance, highly important players. With their erstwhile shortstop now in San Francisco, the Brewers have one such player stepping into his shoes.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images / © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Joey Ortiz came over to the Brewers—along with pitcher DL Hall—in the blockbuster trade that sent pitcher Corbin Burnes to the Baltimore Orioles late last offseason. Much was expected of Ortiz, and in fact, this writer predicted that Ortiz would win the third base job and perform well in Milwaukee in what was essentially his rookie campaign. It didn't happen right away or all at once, but that turned out to be mostly right.

What Went Wrong In 2024?
Ortiz started well in Milwaukee, at first under some protection from right-handed pitchers and in a manageable role—then in an increasingly full-time gig. He was hitting .275/.380/.455 over 211 at-bats in late June, and was looking every bit the Rookie of the Year candidate that the Brewers front office had hoped for when they acquired him. Alas, neck inflammation sent him to the 10-day injured list on Jul. 2. When he returned the weekend before the All-Star break, he was not the same hitter.

Ortiz slashed .158/.222/.211 and did not hit a homer in July. He was scarcely better in August, with a line of .195/.290/.345. He played every game down the stretch and finished with a slash line of .239/.329/.398 for the year, with 11 homers and 11 stolen bases. He was not Mr. October in the Wild Card Series against the Mets, either, going 0-for-11 with two strikeouts.

The neck injury torpedoed the season, even though he led the team with six triples, and finished in the top five with 25 doubles and 56 walks.  

What Can Go Right In 2025?
With the departure of shortstop Willy Adames via free agency, it is all but a fait accompli that Ortiz will move over to the ‘6’, returning to the spot that he called home for most of his minor-league career. Even though Ortiz ranked third in MLB with 8 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) at the hot corner, moving him was a no-brainer: he has the tools for shortstop, and no other internal option would have been better.

Offensively, the projections show him with 11-13 home runs, 10-12 stolen bases, and a slash line around .250/.320/.400. In other words, they expect him to play like last year, with a little higher batting average. I would suggest that Ortiz can perform better still, with something more like 15 homers, 15 steals, and a .750 OPS. He'll be a year more experienced, he'll probably be healthier, and he might even be a little more comfortable in the field, back at his natural position.

Ortiz will not replace the power numbers of Adames, but his defense should be much better.

How Will This Impact The 2025 Brewers?
The question, in my mind, depends on who steps up and takes the third base position. At this point, the Brewers have six players in camp who will be battling for playing time at the hot corner. The leaders in that not-quite-competition figure to be Oliver Dunn, Caleb Durbin and Andruw Monasterio, who could certainly share time at the position, rather than one of them winning it outright. There are other longshots hanging around, too, though.

If none of those three seizes their chance and (as expected) Tyler Black is unable to hack it at the hot corner defensively, maybe Ortiz gets moved back there and the team slides Brice Turang to short, with the diminutive Durbin at second. Maybe they platoon two or three of this varied group, and Ortiz stays at short. No matter what, we know Ortiz is capable of putting up big offensive numbers, and we know he has a chance to be a very good defender even at his new, old position.

Time will tell. When it does, Ortiz's results will play a large role in determining the Brewers', for good or ill.

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[Sugarrayray]

I think Ortiz is going to be a very nice player both offensively and defensively. I think his offense is great, as he was showing last year before his neck injury. I think they erred in rushing him back before the Allstar break and not resting him more.

His neck injury so obviously impacted him, it was absurd. In fact, at one point he almost out of nowhere employed a Lyle Overbay-esque open batting stance, because his neck was bothering him so much. I think he can be a 3.5 to 4 WAR player this year, health permitting.

As an aside, it surprises me that anyone still takes Oliver Dunn seriously in any capacity. He is not a big league player. His strikeout rate at AA as a player in his mid-twenties conveys that, as does his putrid play in the majors last year. Hopefully he will be off the 40 man soon.

[Doug B]

Ortiz is already a make. He was 6th on the team in WAR last season. 

[Michael Trzinski]

1 hour ago, Doug B said:

Ortiz is already a make. He was 6th on the team in WAR last season. 

I don't disagree, but I think he is ready to take another step forward. I'd like to see another five HRs and SB, and another 10 points onto his slash line. And a Gold Glove would be nice!