Anatomy of an At-Bat: Jacob Misiorowski Flashes His Stuff Against Iván Herrera

[Jason Wang]

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

If you only know one current Brewers prospect, it’s probably Jacob Misiorowski. Ever since he was drafted in the second round of the 2022 draft, people have been talking about the 6’7” kid who has a wicked fastball and unbelievable stuff. After posting outstanding numbers in Triple-A and witnessing another cascade of devastating starting pitcher injuries for Milwaukee, he was finally called up to take the big league mound for the first time on June 12.

For the most part, he met his lofty expectations. As I mentioned earlier, Misiorowksi’s most impressive tool is his fastball. Scouts have given it the elusive 80 grade, and in his first major-league start, it was easy to see why. It averaged a velocity of 99.0 mph, touched 102.2 mph, and had nearly 17 inches of induced vertical break. For those who are more qualitatively minded, all of those numbers describe an elite fastball.

But wait folks, there’s more. He also throws a slider that averages 94.3 mph (illegal in 10 states) and a curveball at 87.9 mph (illegal in nine states). He's far from being a one-trick pony, and every pitch that comes out of his hand has quite a bit of gas behind it.

But don’t let the box score showing five scoreless innings fool you: his first big-league showdown was quite the challenge for the young 23-year-old. The Cardinals have been neck-and-neck with the Brewers in the standings for the majority of the season, largely thanks to their lineup, whose combined .721 OPS places them 11th in MLB.

Leading the group in OPS is Iván Herrera, the team’s backup catcher and frequent designated hitter. His sample size is a little smaller than everyday players on the team, but he entered the matchup against Misiorowski with a .941 OPS. He profiles as a guy with great bat speed, quality-of-contact abilities, and outstanding numbers against fastballs. In other words, he’s a tough nut to crack for any pitcher. So, when he ran into Misiorowski for the second time while the Cardinals were down just 1-0, it was sure to be a tense moment.

By the top of the fourth inning, the reality of Misiorowski's workload had begun to set in. The velocity on his heater was comfortably below the triple-digit mark he started off at, and the issues with command that have followed him since he became a professional caused him to walk the leadoff hitter, Lars Nootbaar, on four noncompetitive pitches. After getting Masyn Winn to fly out, in stepped Herrera.

Misiorowski’s first pitch was risky: a 98-mph four-seam fastball right down the middle. If it had been any slower, there’s a good chance that Herrera would’ve put St. Louis on top. Luckily, he was just a tad late and fouled it back, putting him behind 0-1.

Likely wanting to work quickly and get further ahead in the count, Misiorowski threw another fastball, but he overcorrected on the finish, yanking it away from Herrera. In retrospect, it’s probably good that he missed the zone by as much as he did, because he also lost velocity on it and it ended up at just 95.5 mph. This evened up the count at 1-1.

Now, 1-1 is a crucial count in baseball. As a pitcher, if you can get to two strikes, you set the pace of the rest of the at-bat. You get to expand the zone, deploy your breaking stuff, and typically close the situation early and efficiently. Usually, being aggressive at 1-1, especially with a great fastball, is the move.

However, Misiorowski had just thrown two non-competitive fastballs back-to-back. Neither pitch had good location, and since Herrera has been a great fastball hitter all year, it was time to dip into the secondary stuff. It seems like the game plan was to use his curveball as a putaway pitch since he only ever threw it when he was ahead with two strikes. It seemed like the slider would be the better option here. Furthermore, Herrera had already whiffed on the slider and taken a called strike on the only two sliders had seen in the previous at-bat. 

The pitch was in a good spot, just touching the outside edge of the zone, and Herrera got just enough to foul it off and fall behind 1-2. Fun fact: the broadcast seems to have misclassified the pitch as a cutter—because seriously, who allowed a slider to be thrown at 94 mph?

Now the rookie was in the driver’s seat. In some cases, this would allow him to get a few low-risk pitches out of the zone in, but with Willson Contreras coming up and a runner already on first, there wasn’t any time to waste. He had to execute and locate a great fastball. If he missed outside of the zone, it would allow Herrera to get back in the count, and if he missed his spot in the zone, it could go for extra bases. So, Misiorowski placed a 98-mph fastball at the top of the zone, right over Herrera’s swing, punching him out in impressive fashion.

There should be two main takeaways from this at-bat and debut. First, his command will become a real problem if Misiorowski isn’t able to get it under control. Not only did he walk four batters against just five strikeouts, his pitch count was up to 78 after just five innings. With more traffic on the basepaths, he'll limit his own longevity and be more susceptible to injury, he even reported some minor cramping after his outing. On the other hand, his stuff is so darn competitive that when he does locate pitches where they need to go, it’s nigh unhittable. The Cardinals proved this claim by, well, failing to record a single hit against him.

He’s young, but will be facing an even bigger test against the current kings of the NL Central, the Cubs, in his next start. In a potential case of unstoppable force vs. immovable object, we’ll get another glimpse at someone who might be leading Milwaukee’s rotation in the not-so-distant future, in a game with plenty of stakes even beyond that portent.

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[MattK]

Love the video clips, Jason, thank you!

[Jason Wang]

3 hours ago, MattK said:

Love the video clips, Jason, thank you!

i do it for you, MattK