Dustin May Has Two Arsenals, Two Arm Angles, and Two Approaches For Each Side Of The Platoon

[Jake McKibbin]

Image courtesy of Tanner Pearson-Imagn Images

Dustin May has enough weapons to attack hitters in almost any way imaginable. He isn't just mixing six pitches; he's essentially operating with two different arsenals. Unfortunately, the arm slot he uses to deliver them gives hitters an important clue about what's coming.

This weakness actually stems from one of his strengths—one of the reasons the Brewers targeted him at the trade deadline. He's comfortable pronating as he releases the ball, despite a supination bias. He has three distinct fastballs to show for it, to go with two wicked, high-spin breaking pitches and a deadly changeup. He should have the pitches to adapt to any hitter. He has room to adjust his game plan depending on the pitches with which he's feeling comfortable on any given day.

The interesting part is that May doesn't really operate with one six-pitch arsenal. A closer look at his pitch usage reveals two distinct groups of pitches that he deploys depending on the handedness of the hitter—and, perhaps more importantly, two noticeably different arm slots.

Looking at the PitchProfiler graphic in the top right, we can see how dramatically his pitch selection changes against right- and left-handed hitters. Against right-handers, May's primary fastball is his sinker, with some cutter and the occasional four-seamer mixed in. His primary breaking ball is the sweeper.

That sinker/sweeper combination is particularly interesting because of how closely May can match their release characteristics. The lower arm angle enhances the east/west movement by letting May get more around the side of the ball, and can be further enhanced from his extreme position on the first-base side of the rubber.

The bigger story is what happens when he moves between those pitches and his other offerings. May has two quite distinct release points for what are essentially two separate arsenals. He lowers his arm slot for his sinker, sweeper and changeup (ish), while averaging almost 10° higher for his four-seam fastball, cutter and curveball. That's a significant difference, and it gives hitters a visual clue about what's coming. If a hitter can identify May's arm slot early in the delivery, they may already have narrowed down the possibilities before the ball has even reached the plate.

For example, a right-handed hitter who sees May come through the higher arm slot can reasonably expect either a cutter or four-seam fastball, particularly because May rarely uses his curveball against righties. Those two pitches also occupy a relatively similar velocity band, meaning there isn't a huge change in speed to disrupt timing.

That doesn't make either pitch ineffective on its own, but it does reduce one of the biggest advantages of a diverse arsenal: making the hitter account for dramatically different speeds and movements from the same delivery. That could be one reason we've seen May get hit hard when he does leave pitches in the strike zone since joining the Brewers.

The Baseball Savant graphic below does a great job of highlighting just how different those arm angles are:

May's arm angles for his two pitch groups have been growing more disparate with each month of the season. His four-seam fastballs and cutters are averaging a higher arm angle than at any point in his professional career, while the sinker/sweeper are similar to where they started the year. 

Against left-handed hitters, the changes are also quite interesting. May's best start for the Brewers from a swing-and-miss standpoint came in his last appearance against the Reds, when he went heavily to his curveball against an aggressive lineup and scrapped the sweeper. He also went more to the four-seamer than the cutter, but that's just one game. In August, the Brewers tried to use his cutter as a primary offering to left-handers in order to help May with his traditional platoon splits, which have been noticeable throughout his career. Unsurprisingly (it's part of their M.O., really), they don't seem to be fans of his changeup.

While the four-seamer and cutter are good pitches, being able to mix speeds more regularly would help May get more of that swing-and-miss. He's struggled to put away hitters in two-strike counts since joining the Brewers. It'll be fascinating to see how the curveball's usage continues throughout September. Sweepers traditionally don't play well to opposite-handed hitters, because they move toward the hitter's wheelhouse on the inner third of the plate.

Ultimately, May's path to an October rotation spot may come down to how well he can make these two arsenals work together. He needs to rediscover the form he showed in May and June, but the Brewers have already demonstrated that they don't need every starter to work deep into games. They were comfortable using bullpen games and mixing and matching last year, so May doesn't need to become a traditional workhorse to have value in October.

What he does need is a reliable way to get swings and misses. His lack of whiffs was concerning throughout August, but his most recent outing against a hot Cincinnati offense provided an encouraging glimpse of what makes May so intriguing. After giving up a homer on a mistake to Elly De La Cruz, he showed the adaptability that comes with having this many weapons, and when he commands those weapons, the results can be devastating.

May has two distinct sets of weapons. Now, the Brewers and May have to figure out exactly how to deploy them without making him predictable. They don't have much time left to find the answer, but his last outing offered some reason for optimism. His next few starts could go a long way toward determining whether one of baseball's most interesting arsenals has a place in Milwaukee's October armory.

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[wiguy94]

What I'm seeing arm angle wise is that he should probably be using a three pitch mix against LHH going FB, FC, CB and a two pitch mix against RHH going SI, SW?

[Sugarrayray]

I don’t like what the Brewers have done with May and Senzatela. Regardless of whether I like it or not, they have been far less effective since joining the Brewers.

This continues an unsettling trend that appears to be the only major hole in Arnold’s game; tradeline acquisitions. 
 

The Brewers are the best in the business at getting pitchers and working with them in the offseason/training camp to make the requisite changes to improve. Alas, their methods do not seem to work well when they have the abbreviated August/September timeline only to work with pitchers on the fly.