brewers no longer nl central favorite

patrickgpe · August 17, 2007

It took a while, but the cubs finally have a better chance to win the nl central according to baseball prospectus

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

HebrewHammer · August 17, 2007

Well, since they were wrong before....

crewcrazy · August 17, 2007

If I remember correctly, the Cubs were briefly ahead of the Brewers a little while ago, when they were percentage points ahead of the Brewers in the standings...they were only a couple percentage points ahead, though. Getting blown out in the Cardinals series really threw the Brewers' run differential out of whack, and that's done a lot of damage to the Brewers' playoff chances in the BP Odds report. The PECOTA-adjusted report is a little nicer to the Brewers, but still heavily favors the Cubs.

rluzinski · August 17, 2007

The Cubs have a 7% greater chance at wining the division, according to the PECOTA version (which is the one I use). Since the Cubs are projected to average .4 more wins, I think it's fair to call it a coin flip.